| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texans @ Colts | Texans ρ=1.3171 | Texans* δ=18.9 | Texans -5½ |
| Rams @ Steelers | Steelers ρ=1.3052 | Steelers δ=15.7 | Steelers -17 |
| Browns @ Ravens | Ravens ρ=1.2485 | Ravens δ=12.7 | Ravens -13½ |
| Broncos @ Bills | Broncos ρ=1.2023 | Broncos* δ=0.9 | Broncos -2½ |
| Bears @ Packers | Packers ρ=1.1782 | Packers δ=9.0 | Packers -13 |
| Dolphins @ Patriots | Patriots ρ=1.1744 | Patriots δ=8.1 | Patriots -10 |
| Buccaneers @ Panthers | Panthers* ρ=1.1431 | Panthers δ=7.0 | Panthers -7½ |
| 49ers @ Seahawks | 49ers ρ=1.0863 | 49ers* δ=8.6 | 49ers -1½ |
| Giants @ Jets | Jets* ρ=1.0692 | Jets δ=3.2 | Jets -2½ |
| Raiders @ Chiefs | Chiefs* ρ=1.0428 | Raiders* δ=4.3 | Chiefs -1 |
| Cardinals @ Bengals | Bengals* ρ=1.0178 | Bengals δ=2.8 | Bengals -4 |
| Chargers @ Lions | Chargers ρ=1.0155 | Lions δ=2.2 | Lions -1½ |
| Falcons @ Saints | Saints ρ=1.0151 | Saints δ=4.6 | Saints -7 |
| Vikings @ Redskins | Redskins* ρ=1.0125 | Redskins δ=4.0 | Redskins -6½ |
| Jaguars @ Titans | Titans* ρ=1.0120 | Titans δ=3.8 | Titans -8 |
| Eagles @ Cowboys | Eagles ρ=1.0006 | Cowboys δ=0.6 | Cowboys -1 |
Comments:
Lots of complicated playoff scenarios this week. The Falcons and Lions are the only teams with "win and in" scenarios.
The Packers will clinch the top NFC seed with a win this week. And if they can't beat the Bears without Cutler, Forte, and Knox, the Packers could be in for a very short, very ugly playoff run.
If the Colts defense shows up again this week, and they get some production out of their running game—could they really play spoiler to the Texans bye-week hopes? Given how awful the Colts have played (other than last Sunday), I'll have to file that under "I'll believe it when I see it".
Not so long ago, it looked like the 49ers would have an easy sweep of their division. Now they need to win out to stay ahead of the Saints for the remaining unclinched bye-week, which includes a trip to play the recently resurgent Seahawks in their home stadium. If you're looking for an upset pick this week, this game could be a good choice.
Thanks to virtually every other AFC power losing last week, the Patriots now have the inside track to that conference's #1 seed. But first they have to get by the resurgent power in their own division: the recently 5-2 Dolphins. The Patriots are tough at home, but 10 points seems like a lot to give for a team that couldn't hold the hapless Colts to more than 7...
