| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts @ Ravens | Ravens ρ=1.5205 | Ravens δ=23.9 | Ravens -16½ |
| Browns @ Steelers | Steelers ρ=1.3212 | Steelers δ=12.2 | Steelers -14 |
| Patriots @ Redskins | Patriots ρ=1.3209 | Patriots* δ=13.3 | Patriots -9 |
| Raiders @ Packers | Packers ρ=1.2622 | Packers δ=14.9 | Packers -11½ |
| 49ers @ Cardinals | 49ers ρ=1.1907 | 49ers* δ=13.4 | 49ers -3½ |
| Falcons @ Panthers | Falcons ρ=1.1742 | Falcons* δ=6.1 | Falcons -2½ |
| Rams @ Seahawks | Seahawks ρ=1.1409 | Seahawks δ=9.2 | Seahawks -10 |
| Texans @ Bengals | Texans ρ=1.1062 | Texans* δ=8.5 | Bengals -3 |
| Vikings @ Lions | Lions ρ=1.1017 | Lions δ=12.5 | Lions -7 |
| Eagles @ Dolphins | Dolphins ρ=1.0907 | Dolphins δ=2.5 | Dolphins -3 |
| Saints @ Titans | Saints ρ=1.0876 | Saints* δ=8.5 | Saints -3½ |
| Chiefs @ Jets | Jets* ρ=1.0874 | Jets δ=12.4 | Jets -9 |
| Bills @ Chargers | Chargers ρ=1.0789 | Chargers δ=1.1 | Chargers -7 |
| Giants @ Cowboys | Cowboys ρ=1.0510 | Cowboys δ=4.3 | Cowboys -3 |
| Buccaneers @ Jaguars | Jaguars* ρ=1.0338 | Jaguars δ=0.8 | Buccaneers -1 |
| Bears @ Broncos | Broncos* ρ=1.0272 | Bears* δ=7.5 | Broncos -3½ |
Comments:
The Patriots, Texans, Steelers, and Saints have all reached "with a win and help, they're in" playoff scenarios. The Saints' scenario seems pretty likely, as they need a win and one of the Falcons, Bears, or Lions to lose. (The line favors the Saints to win, but only the Bears will be line underdogs this week).
No line for Rams @ Seahawks at the moment. Presumably it will favor the Seahawks by something; the Rams may have to give former practice-squad quarterback Tom Brandstater his first start. As usual, I will (try to) update when a line becomes available. Update: done. The Seahawks haven't had a 10-point line since 2009 (they covered).
Given the way the Patriots are scrambling to find guys to play on defense, I'm not sure how confident I'd be that they can win by 9 this week.
The Chiefs seem to be all-or-nothing when it comes to their defense. They have 6 games where they held their opponent to 20 points or less, and 4 games where their opponent scored 31 or more. Whether the Jets can win by 9 is going to depend on which Chiefs defense shows up on game day.
Everybody likes the Cowboys to beat the Giants this week. But given the way those two played last Sunday, it seems like the Giants are the team better prepared to make a playoff run.
