Friday, January 27, 2012

NFL Wrapup: Pythagorean Projection vs. Reality

As usual, the "Projected Wins" value is used as a baseline, so a positive difference means the team exceeded their projected win value, a negative difference means they fell short.

Teams are sorted by the magnatude (absolute value) of the difference; teams that came close to their projected wins are near the top, teams farthest away from their projection are at the bottom.

This is a follow-up to a post from last summer. See this post for background details.

TeamActual Proj. Diff. Note
Steelers 12 12.1 -0.1
Dolphins  6  6.2 -0.2
Giants  9  9.2 -0.2
Titans  9  8.5  0.5
Patriots 13 12.3  0.7
Redskins  5  5.9 -0.9
Raiders  8  8.9 -0.9
Cowboys  8  7.0  1.0 Romo healthy all season
Falcons 10 11.2 -1.2
Jaguars  5  6.4 -1.4 David Garrard cut at the end of preseason
Eagles  8  9.4 -1.4
Ravens 12 10.6  1.4
Seahawks  7  5.5  1.5
Bears  8  9.5 -1.5 Injuries
Bills  6  4.4  1.6 Better defense, at least for a few games
Jets  8  9.8 -1.8 Sanchez had 18 interceptions
Browns  4  6.1 -2.1
Chiefs  7  9.1 -2.1 Injuries, coaching
Lions 10  7.8  2.2 Matt Stafford healthy the whole season
Broncos  8  5.2  2.8 Tim Tebow
Chargers  8 10.9 -2.9
Bengals  9  6.1  2.9 Andy Dalton and A.J. Green
Texans 10  7.1  2.9 Much better defense
Saints 13 10.1  2.9 Drew Brees' record-breaking season
Packers 15 12.1  2.9 Aaron Rodgers' MVP season
Vikings  3  6.0 -3.0 No more Favre
Panthers  6  2.4  3.6 Cam Newton
Cardinals  8  4.4  3.6 Better defense and Patrick Peterson
Buccaneers  4  8.7 -4.7 Much tougher schedule
Rams  2  6.8 -4.8 Was 2010 a fluke year for the Rams?
49ers 13  6.8  6.2 Jim Harbaugh, coach of the year?
Colts  2  9.1 -7.1 No Peyton Manning

Comments:

  • With the exception of a few extreme cases, most teams came fairly close to their projected win mark this year.

  • In hindsight, the Colts' 9.1 projected wins, along with the fact that they barely made it to 10 wins last year were some warning signs of serious problems in Indianapolis.

  • I'm not really sure what happened with the 49ers this year. There defense has been pretty solid for a few years now. Maybe they just needed someone who could make the best use of the offensive players they had? Frank Gore and Alex Smith both did very well this season.

  • Last year, the Rams' defense had a stand-out season, holding their opponents to 20 points or less in 10 games. This year, they only held their opponents to 20 points or less in 4 games. That's the difference between 2010 and 2011 right there.

  • Last summer, I speculated that the truncated off-season would hurt teams with new coaches and in need of free agent help. But with the exception of the Eagles and their many free agents, I'm not sure there are any teams that can blame their troubles on the short off-season.