Tuesday, January 3, 2012

NFL Week 17 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 16 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

On the Bubble:
ESPN drops the Raiders (+8) 3 spots now that they are no longer playoff contenders.
ESPN gives the Titans (+7) a 3-spot bump for a 1-point victory over the nothing-to-play-for, Jake Delhomme-lead Titans.
However you feel about Tim Tebow, it's not a good sign that the Broncos (+7) have backed into the playoffs on a 3-game losing streak. They've only beaten one team (the Bengals in week 2) with a winning record.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Dolphins (-14)
No question that APR has the Fins ranked too high at #10. But (as noted by ESPN), they finished the season 6-3. They don't belong in the bottom 10, either.
Seahawks (-13)
Another over-rank by APR (#8). But they finished 5-3, including close losses to the 49ers (13-3 and the NFC's #2 seed), and the Cardinals (8-8).
On the bubble
A tough season for the Eagles (-8). Their early 4-game losing streak included last-second losses to the Falcons and 49ers, and left them one win and the right tie-breakers away from winning the division. They're probably the most dangerous team out of the playoffs.