| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers @ Broncos | Steelers ρ=1.1885 | Steelers* δ=10.6 | Steelers -8 |
| Lions @ Saints | Saints ρ=1.1492 | Saints δ=5.3 | Saints -10½ |
| Falcons @ Giants | Falcons ρ=1.0293 | Falcons* δ=1.9 | Giants -3 |
| Bengals @ Texans | Texans* ρ=1.0041 | Texans δ=4.1 | Texans -3 |
Comments:
The Steelers and Broncos have (by a pretty good margin) the two lowest-scoring offenses of any of the playoff teams. This could easily be another 7-3 or 13-9 game. That also means, unless the Steelers get a shut-out, 8 points seems like a lot to give.
The Lions playoff game will be 20 years, almost to the day, since their last playoff win. The Bengals are the only team with a longer time since their last playoff win, 21 years ago
That means the result of the Bengals @ Texans game will be notable no matter what—either the Bengals will end the NFL's longest active streak without a playoff win, or the Texans will get their first playoff win in franchise history.
In the regular season meeting between the Lions and Saints, Matt Stafford was able to pass for more than 400 yards against the Saints defense, so the Lions aren't completely doomed. This time, though, they have to get touchdowns. Given the way the Saints score points, especially in the Super Dome, the Lions will get in trouble very quickly settling for field goals.
The Giants are just 3-5 in their last 8 games, with two of those wins coming in games against the Cowboys. The Falcons haven't been much of a juggernaut either, but at least they've beaten more than two teams since the first week of November.
I've made this point before, but it bears repeating: the Texans are 10-1 when they hold their opponent under 20 points. The performance of the Texans' defense is made even more critical by the fact that the Texans haven't scored more than 22 points since Matt Schaub got hurt.
