Tuesday, February 7, 2012

NFL Super Bowl Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Giants @ Patriots (APR, SRS, Line)
In the game picks for the Super Bowl, I identified two things I thought the Patriots needed to do to win: 1) don't turn the ball over, and 2) establish a 2-score lead. They didn't do either one.
The Patriots only had one turnover, but it was a costly one: it came early in the 4th quarter, on 1st+10, near midfield. If the Patriots had managed to sustain the drive, at the very least it would've taken time off the clock. And, of course, it would've been huge to have scored on that drive—a touchdown would have established that 2-score lead, and perhaps put the game out of reach. Even a field-goal would've helped, meaning that a Giants' touchdown would have (with a 2-point conversion) only meant a 3-point lead.
The Giants, for their part, did a masterful job of steering the game to their strengths—kept it a close, low-scoring defense-dominated affair. Throughout the playoffs, I kept expecting the "bad Giants" to make an appearance—the team that lost 20 turnovers in 8 games, the team that needed a 21-point 4th-quarter come-back to beat the Cardinals. But that never happened, and I am forced to conclude that the Giants are much better than their record when they don't turn the ball over.


APR 0-15-645.5%
SRS 0-15-645.5%

More to come!

There's still a few more season wrap-up posts to come. I'm also planning to have some off-season posts based on analysis of historical data, so you may want to check in once in a while (or just subscribe to the RSS feed).