Wednesday, January 11, 2012

NFL Division Round Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Broncos @
Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.2341
Patriots
δ=13.9
Patriots
-13½
Texans @
Ravens
Ravens
ρ=1.0925
Ravens
δ=0.6
Ravens
-7½
Giants @
Packers
Packers*
ρ=1.0749
Packers
δ=8.3
Packers
-8
Saints @
49ers
Saints*
ρ=1.0447
Saints*
δ=3.7
Saints
-3½

Comments:

  • Unanimous agreement of all four games. Note that Saints @ 49ers is the only game this week not a rematch of a regular season meeting. For the rematches, the team favored here also won in the regular season.

  • The Texans are the only team of the 8 remaining that hasn't won at least one Super Bowl.

  • The Broncos haven't won two playoff games in the same season since their 1998 Super Bowl run (in fact, last week was just the Broncos' second playoff win since Super Bowl XXXII).

  • Monday, I heard an argument that since the Broncos have a better defense, running game, and special teams, they have a chance against the Patriots on Saturday. The problem with that logic is the Broncos presumably had the same advantages in week 15 when they played the Patriots in Denver. You may remember the Broncos made it a game for a quarter, but the Patriots pulled away in the second, ultimately winning by 18.

  • I can't seem to get a solid read on any of these games. The Tebow-lead Broncos have made a living coming out of games with wins where it didn't seem like they had a chance. The Texans defense could easily shut down the Ravens—I suspect that game will be decided by scores on defense and special teams.

  • On the NFC side, the Saints have looked much weaker on the road, and haven't faced many defenses as strong as the 49ers. And it's always an adventure every time the Packers defense takes the field—the Giants managed to score 35 points on them, and tie the game late in the 4th quarter.

  • At any rate, it should be a good slate of games this weekend.