Wednesday, September 14, 2011

NFL Week 2 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Chiefs @
Lions
Lions
ρ=2.3771
Lions
δ=41.0
Lions
-9
Texans @
Dolphins
Texans
ρ=2.0840
Texans
δ=41.0
Texans
-3
Eagles @
Falcons
Eagles
ρ=1.7400
Eagles
δ=36.0
Eagles
-2½
Bengals @
Broncos
Bengals
ρ=1.4537
Bengals
δ=13.0
Broncos
-4½
Packers @
Panthers
Packers
ρ=1.3774
Packers
δ=15.0
Packers
-10½
Bears @
Saints
Bears
ρ=1.3087
Bears
δ=26.0
Saints
-7
Rams @
Giants
Giants
ρ=1.2461
Giants
δ=4.0
Giants
-4½
Buccaneers @
Vikings
Vikings
ρ=1.2308
push
δ=0.0
Vikings
-3
Cowboys @
49ers
49ers
ρ=1.1161
49ers
δ=19.0
Cowboys
-3
Ravens @
Titans
Ravens
ρ=1.1021
Ravens
δ=30.0
Ravens
-6½
Browns @
Colts
Browns
ρ=1.1010
Browns
δ=17.0
Browns
-2
Cardinals @
Redskins
Cardinals
ρ=1.0504
Redskins
δ=7.0
Redskins
-4
Chargers @
Patriots
Chargers
ρ=1.0447
Patriots
δ=7.0
Patriots
-7
Seahawks @
Steelers
Seahawks
ρ=1.0386
Seahawks
δ=12.0
Steelers
-15
Raiders @
Bills
Raiders
ρ=1.0151
Bills
δ=31.0
Bills
-4
Jaguars @
Jets
push
ρ=1.0000
Jets
δ=1.0
Jets
-10

Comments:

  • For the first time, there are a couple of matchups of teams tied in the rankings. One each for APR (Jaguars @ Jets) and SRS (Buccaneers @ Vikings). These will be counted as ties in the result tallies.

  • Bears @ Saints will be a marquee matchup of the afternoon, and a game that the Saints will need to win to avoid falling to 0-2. It will definitely be interesting to see how Brees does against the Bears pass rush, especially Julius Peppers.

  • APR's pick of the Raiders seems pretty flukey to me. In the 8 seasons since their Super Bowl run, the Raiders have won just 6 road games outside the AFC West.

  • Speaking of flukey, the Seahawks over the Steelers? Even a struggling Steelers team should be able to handle the Seahawks, especially in Pittsburgh.

  • Is the Rams' season already over? They'll be on the road facing a Giants' squad stinging from a 14-point loss to the Redskins. After that, they've got the Ravens, Packers, Cowboys, and Saints coming up. Especially without Steven Jackson, they could easily have 5 or 6 losses before they play their first division game week 9.

  • The Cardinals haven't won at the Redskins since 2000. Kevin Kolb still looked pretty green last Sunday, so it seems likely the Cardinals RFK/Landover losing streak will extend past next week.