Tuesday, September 13, 2011

NFL Week 1 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (7-5)

Vikings @ Chargers
Cowboys @ Jets
Eagles @ Rams
Saints @ Packers
Panthers @ Cardinals
Seahawks @ 49ers
Patriots @ Dolphins


Bills @ Chiefs
During the preseason, I mentioned that I thought the Chiefs had regressed from last year. Their offensive struggles continue (the Chiefs had two drives longer than 20 yards), and turnovers gave the Bills a bunch of short fields that they turned into scores.
Falcons @ Bears
The Falcons made a handful of costly mistakes in this game: letting a screen pass go 56 yards for a touchdown, letting Devon Hester get 53 yards on another short pass, and giving up another touchdown to Brian Urlacher on a fumble-sack. Take away even two of those mistakes, and this is a much closer game, and one that the Falcons could have easily won.
Lions @ Buccaneers
Another game that tends to confirm my preseason evaluations. The Lions can't be real happy about nearly letting this one slip away, but it's a good sign that they were able to hold on to a win on the road.
Giants @ Redskins
The Giants plain got out-played in this game. Rex Grossman had a career day against their defense, and their offense couldn't move the ball—just 3 drives longer than 19 yards.
Bengals @ Browns
The Browns just aren't good enough to win when they only score 17 points. Especially when the defense lets Cedric Benson run up and down the field.

Split Picks: (Pythag: 1-3, Line: 3-1)

Raiders (Pythag) @ Broncos (Line)
The Broncos lack of rushing defense strikes again: 190 yards allowed, including 150 by Darren McFadden. An interception and two lost fumbles ended drives that could have given the Broncos the points they needed to win.
Titans (Pythag) @ Jaguars (Line)
The two things that stand out to me in this game is the lack of production from Chris Johnson (9 carries for 24 yards), and the Titans 3rd down conversion rate (4 of 11). On the other side, Luke McCown didn't do anything disastrous, the Jaguars rushed for 163 yards, and converted 9 of 18 3rd downs. Not the most amazing performance this week, but it was enough to get the Jaguars by the Titans.
Colts (Pythag) @ Titans (Line)
No prizes for guessing that the Colts would struggle without Peyton Manning, or that Kerry Collins would look very rusty after missing almost the whole preseason. Still, that was even worse than I was expecting. If Collins had not fumbled twice, and the Colts special teams had not given up a touchdown... well, at least the Texans would've had to play into the second half to win the game.
Steelers (Pythag) @ Ravens (Line)
An ugly game for the defending AFC Champions. The headline has been the Steelers' seven turnovers, but their defense wasn't stopping the Ravens' offense even when they needed to drive the field. The good news for the Steelers is they now have a pretty soft stretch in their schedule, and will have every chance to get things fixed before the rematch in week 9.


Pythagorean 88
Line 106