Tuesday, September 27, 2011

NFL Week 3 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (6-2)

Ravens @ Rams
Lions @ Vikings
Packers @ Bears
Steelers @ Colts
Chiefs @ Chargers
Falcons @ Buccaneers


Cardinals @ Seahawks
Kevin Kolb looked very much the inexperienced quarterback in this game. His passing numbers don't look awful (64% completion rate and 252 yards passing), but the Cardinals had 7 drives that ended with a punt or interception. The offense only managed to score 10 points, and the defense is nowhere near good enough to make that stick as a win, even against the lowly Seahawks.
Jets @ Raiders
The Jets defense did not have an answer for Darren McFadden (171 yards on 19 carries). The Jets' offense was (barely) keeping up until their special teams lost a muffed kickoff, giving the Raiders a short field, and shortly thereafter, a two score lead that proved more than the Jets could overcome.

Split Picks: (APR: 4-4, SRS 4-4, Line 5-3)

Dolphins (SRS) @ Browns (APR, Line)
Neither one of these teams looks especially good, but in this game, it was the Browns who were able to rise to the challenge, mounting a late clock-killing drive for the go-ahead score.
Texans (SRS) @ Saints (APR, Line)
This was actually a low scoring game for three quarters, with the Texans more-or-less in control, culminating with a 9-point lead early in the 4th quarter. But that's when the wheels came off for the Texans. The Saints' offense scored touchdowns on three consecutive drives, and the Texans offense just couldn't keep up.
49ers (SRS) @ Bengals (APR, Line)
This was a game of offensive futility, featuring 14 total punts, 2 lost fumbles, and 2 interceptions. The 49ers offense was marginally less futile, and managed to eke out the win.
Patriots (SRS, Line) @ Bills (APR)
Tom Brady threw 4 interceptions for the first time since 2004. I'm not convinced the Bills are especially good (coming back from an 18-point deficit twice in a row is really not a good thing, even if you are 3-0), but they are good enough to beat even the Patriots given that many extra chances at the ball.
Giants (SRS) @ Eagles (APR, Line)
Another breakdown by the Eagles' defense, and another game that Vick couldn't finish, and Kafka couldn't save. Perhaps most surprising, the Giants' injury-depleted defense was still able to hold the Eagles to just 16 points.
Jaguars (APR) @ Panthers (SRS, Line)
APR is still a little flakey after two weeks, so outside knowledge (like the fact that Luke McCown is a bad quarterback, and Cam Newton probably isn't) makes this pick look odd. On the other hand, the Panthers did lose to a pretty bad Cardinals team, and barely beat a really bad Jaguars team. Cam Newton has put up some pretty impressive passing statistics, but as a team, the Panthers really haven't proved much of anything yet.
Broncos (APR) @ Titans (SRS, Line)
Except for their close loss to the highly-ranked Raiders, I don't have a good explanation for why APR likes the Broncos so much. Meanwhile, Matt Hasselbeck continues his late career resurgence, leading the Titans to another win with 311 yards passing and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Seahawks management is left to wonder "what have we done?"
Redskins (SRS) @ Cowboys (APR, Line)
For the second week in a row, the Cowboys scrape out a come-from-behind win, and APR has them in the top 5 for it. They may not be the most dominating team ever, but a couple wins over teams with winning records is more than the Falcons, Bears, and Eagles can say right now.


A much better week.

APR 10-616-15-151.6%
SRS 10-619-12-160.9%
Line11-524- 8-075.0%