Wednesday, September 28, 2011

NFL Week 4 Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Redskins @
Rams
Redskins
ρ=1.7430
Redskins*
δ=27.8
Redskins
-1
49ers @
Eagles
49ers
ρ=1.4211
49ers*
δ=18.0
Eagles
-7½
Bills @
Bengals
Bills
ρ=1.2738
Bills*
δ=12.0
Bills
-3
Colts @
Buccaneers
Buccaneers
ρ=1.2610
Buccaneers
δ=13.2
Buccaneers
-10
Titans @
Browns
Titans
ρ=1.2605
Titans*
δ=13.1
Browns
-1½
Jets @
Ravens
Jets*
ρ=1.2341
Jets*
δ=6.4
Ravens
-3
Broncos @
Packers
Packers
ρ=1.2043
Packers
δ=5.9
Packers
-13
Saints @
Jaguars
Saints*
ρ=1.1898
Saints*
δ=17.5
Saints
-7½
Dolphins @
Chargers
Chargers
ρ=1.1808
Dolphins*
δ=1.8
Chargers
-7½
Giants @
Cardinals
Cardinals
ρ=1.1372
Cardinals
δ=4.6
Giants
-1½
Steelers @
Texans
Texans
ρ=1.1323
Texans
δ=15.3
Texans
-4
Lions @
Cowboys
Cowboys
ρ=1.1299
Lions*
δ=2.0
Cowboys
-1½
Patriots @
Raiders
Raiders
ρ=1.1019
Raiders
δ=5.4
Patriots
-4
Panthers @
Bears
Bears
ρ=1.0284
Bears
δ=3.3
Bears
-7
Falcons @
Seahawks
Seahawks
ρ=1.0156
Falcons*
δ=4.6
Falcons
-4½
Vikings @
Chiefs
Chiefs
ρ=1.0138
Vikings*
δ=17.9
Vikings
-1½

Comments:

  • The Broncos are 0-4-1 against the Packers in Wisconsin (the first two meetings were played in Milwaukee).

  • I'm kind of surprised the line is so tentative about picking the Redskins. Yeah, The Redskins are 1-3 in their last 4 meetings, but this is probably the best Redskins team since 2005, and the Rams show every sign of still being awful.

  • Patriots @ Raiders should be an interesting matchup. Remember last year, when Peyton Hillis ran all over the Patriots defense in one of the Browns few wins? The Patriots are going to have to do a lot better against Darren McFadden this week, or things will get ugly again for the Patriots real fast.

  • Somehow, the Falcons season is already on the brink. If they fall to 1-3, especially against the struggling Seahawks, there's going to be a real question about what teams they can beat, especially on the road.

  • Through week 3, the Lions, 49ers, and Ravens have the league's best turnover differential at +6; the Bills are right behind at +5. The Steelers have by far the worst at -9; the Chargers and Chiefs are tied for second at -6.

  • The Bears (14), Seahawks (14), and Falcons (13) have given up the most sacks so far. The Raiders (2), Bills (2), Patriots (3), and Browns (3) the fewest.

  • Defensively, the Cowboys have the most sacks at 13, which suggests that it's not just Tony Romo's grittiness that's been winning them games. The Bills (2), Chiefs (3), and Jaguars (3) have the fewest sacks.