The lines for the Monday night games are finally up, so it's time for week 1 picks! All line values are from yahoo.
See last year's week 1 picks for an explanation of how this table was generated.
| Game | Pythag (std) | Pythag (R/H) | Line | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots @ Dolphins | Patriots (0.3830) | Patriots (0.4290) | Patriots -7 | |
| Vikings @ Chargers | Chargers (0.3022) | Chargers (0.4753) | Chargers -9 | |
| Bills @ Chiefs | Chiefs (0.2920) | Chiefs (0.4659) | Chiefs -6½ | |
| Raiders @ Broncos | Raiders (0.2370) | Raiders (0.1094) | Broncos -3 | |
| Giants @ Redskins | Giants (0.2032) | Giants (0.1952) | Giants -3 | |
| Cowboys @ Jets | Jets (0.1710) | Jets (0.2943) | Jets -4 | |
| Eagles @ Rams | Eagles (0.1637) | Eagles (0.0532) | Eagles -4½ | |
| Titans @ Jaguars | Titans (0.1309) | Titans (0.0553) | Jaguars -3 | |
| Saints @ Packers | Packers (0.1278) | Packers (0.1736) | Packers -4 | |
| Panthers @ Cardinals | Cardinals (0.1265) | Cardinals (0.2909) | Cardinals -7 | |
| Colts @ Texans | Colts (0.1208) | Colts (0.0134) | Texans -8 | |
| Falcons @ Bears | Falcons (0.1118) | Falcons (0.1810) | Falcons -3 | |
| Steelers @ Ravens | Steelers (0.0976) | Steelers (0.0427) | Ravens -2½ | |
| Seahawks @ 49ers | 49ers (0.0818) | 49ers (0.4349) | 49ers -5½ | |
| Lions @ Buccaneers | Buccaneers (0.0526) | Buccaneers (0.0714) | Buccaneers -1½ | |
| Bengals @ Browns | Browns (0.0007) | Browns (0.0607) | Browns -6½ |
Comments:
As usual, week 1 picks are based on each team's Pythagorean projection. This year, the standard and Road/Home versions are in unanimous agreement.
The NFL started opening the regular season with a game on Thursday night in 2002. Since then, the home team is 8-1 in these games.
Most of these games have finished relatively close. The Colts are the only team that won by more than 11 points, ironically beating the Saints 41-10 to open the 2007 season.
Speaking of the Colts, Peyton Manning's health has been a big issue. In 2008, when Manning missed the preseason with a knee issue, the Colts started out 3-4 in their first 7 games, so it's no stretch to predict the Colts will struggle again this year. But the Colts finished 2008 with 9 wins and a 12-4 record, so it's too early to call them out of it as long as Manning can eventually get back under center.
The one pick that seems most likely to be wrong is for Lions @ Buccaneers. The Lions (especially on defense) look a lot better than they were last year, while the Bucs look more-or-less the same as last year (an OK team that took full advantage of a very soft schedule). This will definitely be a game to keep an eye on Sunday afternoon.
Update: wow! Reports are coming in Tuesday afternoon that the Jaguars have cut their erstwhile starting quarterback (and one of the few bright spots on offense last year) David Garrard. Adjust your expectations accordingly.
