NFL Preseason Notes

Here's a few stats I thought were interesting on the preseason results:

The Seahawks and Eagles were undefeated. The Bills, Dolphins, and Jets went winless (and the AFC East was 1-15 as a group).

Most points scored		Fewest points scored
Seahawks	122	Jets	31
Ravens	108	Dolphins	43
Eagles	106	Patriots	55
Steelers	104	Bills	59
Lions	102	Buccaneers	60
Texans	101	Chiefs	61
Jaguars	100	Raiders	61

Most points allowed		Fewest points allowed
Bills	119	Seahawks	44
Cardinals(*)	119	49ers	53
Chiefs	116	Giants	58
Jaguars	117	Redskins	59
Bears	99	Eagles	60
Dolphins	96	Cowboys	60

(*)Through 5 games

Highest net points		Lowest net points
Seahawks	78	Bills	-60
Eagles	46	Jets	-57
Redskins	39	Chiefs	-55
49ers	37	Dolphins	-53
Steelers	33	Buccaneers	-35

Comments:

• Are the Seahawks a breakout team this year? Most points scored and fewest points allowed can't be a total coincidence. On the other hand, rookie QB Russell Wilson will almost certainly struggle when he starts to face defenses that are actually game planning for him, and not holding back on their playbook.

• It's hard to come to any conclusion except that the Jets are in big trouble going into this season. If they average 8 points a game starting next week, Rex Ryan will be fired by November.

• I wonder how much teams really hold back on what they can do in the preseason, just so it can be a "surprise" in the regular season. It seems to me this kind of tactic gets you one game (at best), and denies you opportunity to practice at full speed against a motivated opponent.

• This sort of thing is particularly unconvincing in the case of teams like the 49ers, who struggled offensively last year. If they're struggling offensively in the preseason, my first thought is not "oh, they must be holding back".

• Also, Joe Buck? Whoever told you that beard looks good on you was lying.

A poll, and some thoughts on the first half of the preseason

Sitemeter is saying traffic is picking up again, so I thought I'd put some actual new content up.

Does it matter to you if your team wins in the preseason?
	Yes, absolutely. You play to win the game.
	As long as the starters do OK, I'm happy.
	No, I don't care. It's just a way for coaches to decide which players are worth keeping.
pollcode.com free polls

Packers:

• The first-string offense has been slow to get started the first couple games (3-and-out on their first drive week 1, punting twice in their first two drives week 2). Yeah, it's just the preseason, but it would be nice to see them get going a little faster.

• The Packers have an embarrasment of riches at wide receiver and tight end. Given that they were already pretty deep, they're going to have to cut some pretty high-quality guys. Teams that are looking for some depth at wide out will want to be watching.

• Graham Harrell, the Packers' 3rd-string quarterback, has had a pretty good preseason this year, which means the Packers will likely be inclined to trade backup Matt Flynn (whose rookie contract is up at the end of the 2011 season).

Cardinals:

• Kevin Kolb looks like a definite improvement at quarterback (although a bit rusty). Of the 3 quarterbacks returning from last year, it looks very much like Max Hall is the odd man out; I'll be surprised if he doesn't get cut when it's time to get rosters down to 53 guys in a few weeks.

• It was definitely a blow to lose second-round draft pick Ryan Williams for the year. But Alfonso Smith looked at least servicable in relief (12 carries, 39 yards and a TD) at the Packers. He's been on the Cardinals bubble for a while now (signed and cut last year, then resigned last January). He should have a chance to make the team if he can show some production in the last two preseason games.

• I haven't seen any of the 49ers or Seahawks preseason games, but judging from the highlights and stat lines of Alex Smith and Tarvaris Jackson, it looks a lot like the NFC West will come down to the Cardinals and Rams this year.

Other teams:

• Is there any way the Bengals' season isn't already over? I'll be surprised if Andy Dalton can lead them to more than 4 or 5 wins this year.

• The odds are excellent somebody (49ers? Seahawks? Colts?!) will be willing to make a trade for Carson Palmer this season. If the Bengals are comitted to rebuilding, it's hard to see how getting what they can in trade is worse than forcing him into retirement.

• The Chiefs look like they've really regressed this year. Again, I know it's still preseason, but in their first game against the Buccaneers, they didn't get a 3rd-down conversion until late in the 4th quarter. For an offense that struggled to move the ball last season, it's not a good sign.

• A lot of people like what the Eagles have done in the off-season. But what I see is a bunch of guys who have never played together working under a rookie defensive coordinator. Given their performance against the Steelers last week, there has to be some real questions about what the 'Dream Team' can really do this year.

• Is there any rational explanation for the fact that Alex Smith is still the designated starter for the 49ers?

NFL: Preseason Points

It's tough to make predictions based on preseason results in the NFL, but I was looking at the stats for total points scored, and saw some interesting results. A more careful analysis would break down points scored based on whether or not the first teams were in, but I'll leave that for someone else.

Points For

Rank	Team	PF
1	Packers	123
2	Saints	122
3	Bengals	112
4	Bills	111
⋮	⋮	⋮
29	Jets	57
30	Falcons	55
31	Bears	46
32	Panthers	33

Comments

• The Packers and Saints are right back to their high-scoring ways

• Perhaps the Bengals' biggest problems last season was an inability to score points. Maybe they've finally got that fixed?

• It doesn't bode well for teams (like the Jets and Bears) that have high expectations for the season that they scored so few points in the preseason.

• The Panthers scored just 2 touchdowns in the preseason (every other team scored at least 5). There is some good news for them, though, seen below.

Points Against

Rank	Team	PA
T1	Ravens	52
T1	Panthers	52
3	Falcons	57
T4	Cardinals, Vikings	59
⋮	⋮	⋮
28	Broncos	106
30	Bills	111
31	Bengals	112
32	Colts	160

Comments

• Lost in the attention given their QB controversy, the Cardinals had a very good preseason on defense.

• The Panthers had a very good preseason on defense too. But unless their offense gets going, they will likely still struggle to make it to 8 wins this year.

• Bad news for the Bengals: getting the offense going isn't going to help if the defense suddenly becomes a revolving door.

• The Colts defense really got smoked in the preseason (though not all of those 160 points is their fault, the special teams were giving up touchdowns too).

Net Points

Rank	Team	Net Pts
1	Vikings	34
2	Ravens	33
3	49ers	32
4	Packers	31
⋮	⋮	⋮
29	Seahawks	-15
30	Panthers	-19
31	Bears	-38
32	Colts	-70

• Some of the usual suspects at the top of the list. The Ravens and 49ers have to be the early favorites to win their respective divisions, I think.

• I posted this a few times elsewhere, but it's worth repeating: if the Bears are mastering a Martz-style offense, they kept it well hidden in the preseason.

Some Historical Analysis of Preseason Power Rankings

I took the preseason data going back to 2001 (the last year NFL.com has quarter-by-quarter scoring data for the preseason), and ran the four preseason ranking algorithms (listed below) on the scores for each season.

Using each power ranking as a means to pick the week one games (i.e. predict the team with the highest power ranking to be the winner), and then compared the pick to the actual game winners. Below is a table summarizing the results for the data:

Year	Preseason Week 3	Pre/half Week 3	Preseason Week 4	Pre/half Week 4
2001	4-11	6-9	6-9	6-9
2002	7-9	7-9	9-7	8-8
2003	9-7	12-4	9-7	7-9
2004	6-10	12-4	12-4	12-4
2005	6-10	6-10	7-9	7-9
2006	10-6	10-6	7-9	10-6
2007	10-6	8-8	10-6	10-6
Total	52-59	61-50	60-51	60-51

I was happier with these numbers before I ran the 2001 data set. Any way you look at it, it's a pretty sparse data set to be making strong predictions. But it does look like there's reason to think preseason power rankings are useful data.

I'll be doing a more extensive analysis later. And, of course, pick results for the 2008 data will be posted next week.

NFL Week 1 picks!

Update: Added line picks

The preseason is over!

Because APR is a feedback-based algorithm, and there is nothing to feed back before any games are played, there are no APR-based picks for week 1.

...Unless you use the preseason games. I hereby present picks for week one, based on preseason APR rankings. I've generated four power ranking tables, producing four picks for each game (detailed below). The power rankings are generated as follows:

• Preseason Week 3: Rankings based on the final scores of all games up to and including week 3

• Pre/Half Week 3: Rankings based on the half-time scores of all games up to and including week 3

• Preseason Week 4: Final-score based rankings for week 4

• Pre/Half Week 4: Half-time score based rankings for week 4

The games with the darker background are those that are not unanimous picks.

Game	Preseason Week 3	Pre/half Week 3	Preseason Week 4	Pre/half Week 4	Line
WAS @ NYG	WAS	NYG	NYG	NYG	NYG
CIN @ BAL	CIN	CIN	CIN	CIN	CIN
NYJ @ MIA	MIA	MIA	MIA	MIA	NYJ
KC @ NE	KC	KC	KC	KC	NE
HOU @ PIT	PIT	PIT	HOU	PIT	PIT
JAC @ TEN	JAC	JAC	JAC	JAC	JAC
DET @ ATL	DET	DET	DET	DET	DET
SEA @ BUF	BUF	BUF	SEA	SEA	Push
TB @ NO	NO	NO	TB	NO	NO
STL @ PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI
DAL @ CLE	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL
CAR @ SD	CAR	CAR	SD	SD	SD
ARI @ SF	ARI	ARI	SF	ARI	ARI
CHI @ IND	IND	IND	CHI	CHI	IND
MIN @ GB	MIN	MIN	GB	MIN	GB
DEN @ OAK	DEN	OAK	DEN	DEN	DEN

Are the Patriots really that bad?

The Patriots have had a forgettable preseason, finishing 0-4. What's worse, they were outscored 67-9 in the first half of play, presumably when the first- and second-string players are on the field. Unless they've been holding back in a big way, and not just with Tom Brady, it looks like the Patriots could be in for a major let-down this year. If the Patriots are anywhere near the level they played at last year, there's no way the Chiefs beat them in week 1 (right?). But it's not going to look good if KC is within a score late in the 4th quarter...

Are those other teams really that good?

On the other hand, APR (Pre/half Week 3) has the Bills, Dolphins, Panthers, Cardinals, Saints, Lions, Vikings, and Chiefs all in the top 10. Could all of these teams have had such a major turn around from last year? Could any of these teams have had such a major turn around from last year? Maybe the Pats fans' best hope is that the whole idea that preseason games mean something is just so much hot air. Tune in next week to find out...

NFL: Preseason Power, Week 3

Preseason Power Rankings?!

Yeah, preseason. I've done some (as yet unposted) analysis on preseason games that suggests there's at least some correlation between the way teams perform in the preseason and how they do (at least early) in the regular season.

I was going to do a more in-depth analysis of this during the summer, and present my findings, but computer troubles have derailed that project (for the moment, anyway).

Here's How it Works

Each team's power is computed, based on the APR algorithm. But instead of the game's final score, the game's half-time score is used, instead. Of course, this isn't the steadiest ground in the world: teams don't play for the win like they do in the regular season, and they certainly don't play to be ahead at half time like they play for the win.

On the other hand, good offenses score points, and good defenses get stops, even in preseason. I (somewhat arbitrarily) cut off the second-half results to winnow out the effects of teams playing their second-string and soon-to-be-cut players.

I plan to do a more careful (quarter by quarter and week by week) comparison of preseason to regular season results, but probably not until after the Super Bowl.

The Preseason Half-time Power Rankings for Week 3

Rank	Power	Team
1)	1.5256	Buffalo Bills
2)	1.5124	Miami Dolphins
3)	1.4891	Carolina Panthers
4)	1.4540	Arizona Cardinals
5)	1.4314	San Diego Chargers
6)	1.4303	New Orleans Saints
7)	1.3582	Detroit Lions
8)	1.3417	Minnesota Vikings
9)	1.3386	Kansas City Chiefs
10)	1.2998	Seattle Seahawks
11)	1.2982	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
12)	1.2885	Jacksonville Jaguars
13)	1.2881	Oakland Raiders
14)	1.2704	Indianapolis Colts
15)	1.2559	Cincinnati Bengals
16)	1.2381	New York Giants
17)	1.2379	Pittsburgh Steelers
18)	1.2251	Denver Broncos
19)	1.2185	San Francisco 49ers
20)	1.2170	New York Jets
21)	1.2143	Philadelphia Eagles
22)	1.2135	Tennessee Titans
23)	1.2034	Houston Texans
24)	1.1895	Washington Redskins
25)	1.1790	Dallas Cowboys
26)	1.1714	Atlanta Falcons
27)	1.1596	Chicago Bears
28)	1.1476	Cleveland Browns
29)	1.1452	Saint Louis Rams
30)	1.0414	Green Bay Packers
31)	1.0365	Baltimore Ravens
32)	0.8355	New England Patriots