Update: Added line picks
The preseason is over!
Because APR is a feedback-based algorithm, and there is nothing to feed back before any games are played, there are no APR-based picks for week 1.
...Unless you use the preseason games. I hereby present picks for week one, based on preseason APR rankings. I've generated four power ranking tables, producing four picks for each game (detailed below). The power rankings are generated as follows:
Preseason Week 3: Rankings based on the final scores of all games up to and including week 3
Pre/Half Week 3: Rankings based on the half-time scores of all games up to and including week 3
Preseason Week 4: Final-score based rankings for week 4
Pre/Half Week 4: Half-time score based rankings for week 4
The games with the darker background are those that are not unanimous picks.
| Game | Preseason Week 3 | Pre/half Week 3 | Preseason Week 4 | Pre/half Week 4 | Line |
| WAS @ NYG | WAS | NYG | NYG | NYG | NYG |
| CIN @ BAL | CIN | CIN | CIN | CIN | CIN |
| NYJ @ MIA | MIA | MIA | MIA | MIA | NYJ |
| KC @ NE | KC | KC | KC | KC | NE |
| HOU @ PIT | PIT | PIT | HOU | PIT | PIT |
| JAC @ TEN | JAC | JAC | JAC | JAC | JAC |
| DET @ ATL | DET | DET | DET | DET | DET |
| SEA @ BUF | BUF | BUF | SEA | SEA | Push |
| TB @ NO | NO | NO | TB | NO | NO |
| STL @ PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI | PHI |
| DAL @ CLE | DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL | DAL |
| CAR @ SD | CAR | CAR | SD | SD | SD |
| ARI @ SF | ARI | ARI | SF | ARI | ARI |
| CHI @ IND | IND | IND | CHI | CHI | IND |
| MIN @ GB | MIN | MIN | GB | MIN | GB |
| DEN @ OAK | DEN | OAK | DEN | DEN | DEN |
Are the Patriots really that bad?
The Patriots have had a forgettable preseason, finishing 0-4. What's worse, they were outscored 67-9 in the first half of play, presumably when the first- and second-string players are on the field. Unless they've been holding back in a big way, and not just with Tom Brady, it looks like the Patriots could be in for a major let-down this year. If the Patriots are anywhere near the level they played at last year, there's no way the Chiefs beat them in week 1 (right?). But it's not going to look good if KC is within a score late in the 4th quarter...
Are those other teams really that good?
On the other hand, APR (Pre/half Week 3) has the Bills, Dolphins, Panthers, Cardinals, Saints, Lions, Vikings, and Chiefs all in the top 10. Could all of these teams have had such a major turn around from last year? Could any of these teams have had such a major turn around from last year? Maybe the Pats fans' best hope is that the whole idea that preseason games mean something is just so much hot air. Tune in next week to find out...
