Picks for week 11, based on the week 10 rankings.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line values are taken
from yahoo.com (excepte
Bears @ Packers, taken from footballlocks.com), and are for comparison purposes only.
| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
| Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers | Panthers ρ=1.4015 | Panthers δ=19.53 | Panthers -14 |
| Philadelphia Eagles @ Cincinnati Bengals | Eagles ρ=1.2876 | Eagles δ=16.20 | Eagles -9 |
| Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Titans ρ=1.2515 | Titans δ=11.30 | Titans -3 |
| Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins | Dolphins ρ=1.2085 | Dolphins δ=11.64 | Dolphins -10½ |
| Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts | Colts ρ=1.1691 | Colts δ=6.99 | Colts -8½ |
| Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks | Cardinals ρ=1.1589 | Cardinals δ=11.06 | Cardinals -3 |
| Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons | Falcons ρ=1.1520 | Falcons δ=8.34 | Falcons -6 |
| San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Steelers ρ=1.1063 | Steelers δ=6.85 | Steelers -4½ |
| Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Buccaneers ρ=1.0768 | Buccaneers δ=4.39 | Buccaneers -3½ |
| New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs | Saints ρ=1.0684 | Saints δ=9.52 | Saints -5 |
| Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills | Browns ρ=1.0207 | Browns δ=2.05 | Bills -5 |
| Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins | Cowboys ρ=1.0155 | Cowboys δ=0.01 | Cowboys -2 |
| Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers | Packers ρ=1.0129 | Bears δ=2.13 | Packers -4 |
| Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants | Ravens ρ=1.0097 | Giants δ=2.00 | Giants -6½ |
| St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers | Rams ρ=1.0092 | 49ers δ=8.13 | 49ers -6½ |
| New York Jets @ New England Patriots | Jets ρ=1.0021 | Jets δ=2.98 | Patriots -3½ |
Comments:
Lots of disagreements this week: Browns @ Bills, Packers @ Bears, Ravens @ Giants, Rams @ 49ers, and Jets @ Patriots.
I'm surprised the line is going with the Packers. Maybe I'm too pessimistic, but the Bears seem like the kind of team (strong defense, run oriented offense) that have been troubling the Packers lately. I'd love to be wrong on this—a Packer loss here would make it much harder to reach the playoffs.
The Cardinals have a commanding lead in the NFC West, but still have to play the Giants, Eagles, Vikings, and Patriots.
The Bottom 5 matchups are all pretty close by APR's measure.
