Tuesday, November 11, 2008

NFL Week 10 Power Rankings

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)Tennessee
Titans
9-01.5768
(LW × 1.032)
won by 7
at Bears
2 (↑1)Baltimore
Ravens
6-31.4748
(LW × 1.018)
won by 28
at Texans
3 (↑1)New York
Giants
8-11.4605
(LW × 1.009)
won by 5
at Eagles
4 (↑3)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
6-31.4090
(LW × 1.005)
Bye
5 (↓3)Pittsburgh
Steelers
6-31.4053
(LW × 0.960)
lost by 4
vs Colts
6 (↓1)Philadelphia
Eagles
5-41.4000
(LW × 0.973)
lost by 5
vs Giants
7 (↓1)Carolina
Panthers
7-21.3985
(LW × 0.992)
won by 11
at Raiders
8 (↑6)Indianapolis
Colts
5-41.3683
(LW × 1.051)
won by 4
at Steelers
9 (↑2)Atlanta
Falcons
6-31.3625
(LW × 1.020)
won by 14
vs Saints
10 (-)Green Bay
Packers
4-51.3575
(LW × 0.997)
lost by 1
at Vikings
11 (↓2)Chicago
Bears
5-41.3402
(LW × 0.969)
lost by 7
vs Titans
12 (↓4)Arizona
Cardinals
6-31.3284
(LW × 0.960)
won by 5
vs 49ers
13 (↑4)New York
Jets
6-31.3099
(LW × 1.014)
won by 44
vs Rams
14 (↓1)Minnesota
Vikings
5-41.3085
(LW × 1.004)
won by 1
vs Packers
15 (↑5)New England
Patriots
6-31.3071
(LW × 1.037)
won by 10
vs Bills
16 (↓4)Miami
Dolphins
5-41.3010
(LW × 0.993)
won by 2
vs Seahawks
17 (↓1)Dallas
Cowboys
5-41.2791
(LW × 0.988)
Bye
18 (↑1)San Diego
Chargers
4-51.2703
(LW × 0.995)
won by 1
vs Chiefs
19 (↑4)Jacksonville
Jaguars
4-51.2600
(LW × 1.027)
won by 24
at Lions
20 (↓5)Washington
Redskins
6-31.2595
(LW × 0.971)
Bye
21 (↓3)Cleveland
Browns
3-61.2407
(LW × 0.966)
lost by 4
vs Broncos
22 (-)Buffalo
Bills
5-41.2156
(LW × 0.978)
lost by 10
at Patriots
23 (↓2)New Orleans
Saints
4-51.2109
(LW × 0.973)
lost by 14
at Falcons
24 (↑2)Denver
Broncos
5-41.1827
(LW × 1.053)
won by 4
at Browns
25 (↓1)Houston
Texans
3-61.1703
(LW × 0.965)
lost by 28
vs Ravens
26 (↓1)Seattle
Seahawks
2-71.1463
(LW × 1.019)
lost by 2
at Dolphins
27 (↑1)Kansas City
Chiefs
1-81.1335
(LW × 1.032)
lost by 1
at Chargers
28 (↑1)Cincinnati
Bengals
1-81.0873
(LW × 0.999)
Bye
29 (↑1)Oakland
Raiders
2-71.0765
(LW × 1.005)
lost by 11
vs Panthers
30 (↓3)St. Louis
Rams
2-71.0753
(LW × 0.968)
lost by 44
at Jets
31 (↑1)San Francisco
49ers
2-71.0655
(LW × 1.033)
lost by 5
at Cardinals
32 (↓1)Detroit
Lions
0-90.9979
(LW × 0.953)
lost by 24
vs Jaguars

Comments:

  • In spite of some impressive recent wins, the Giants are still being held down by the weak teams they've played (Rams, Bengals, Seahawks, 49ers are a combined 7-29). Still, they could've taken second place in the rankings if they had beat the Eagles by 7 points.

  • It says a lot about how bad the Raiders are that they couldn't beat the Panthers, in spite of the fact that Jake Delhomme threw 4 interceptions and completed just 7 passes (to his own receivers). When the Panthers play a bad game, they don't go for half-measures...

  • Cardinals lose 4% power, and drop 4 spots. Sometimes, dropping a team on a close win against a bad team is exactly the right thing to do.

  • Once again, the Broncos are the lowest-ranked team with a winning record. They might not finish with much more than 8 wins this year, but the way the rest of the AFC West is playing, that might be enough to win the division.

  • The Chargers improve to 1-2 on games decided by last-second, desperation plays. They are presently ranked above the fore-mentioned Broncos, but I wonder if that will last beyond upcoming games against the Steelers, Colts, Falcons, and Buccaneers.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Redskins (+15)
A lot of the Redskins' opponents lost this weekend, which caused APR to drop them 5 spots on their bye. Comments from last week still hold.

Patriots (+8)
APR moves the Patriots up 5 on their win over the Bills, but so does ESPN. Upcoming games against the Jets, Dolphins and Steelers should resolve who the Patriots are this year.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Packers (-11)
APR is giving the Packers the benefit of the doubt for some close road losses. But they are ranked above 10(!) teams with winning records. ESPN says "Something is missing this season in Green Bay". The name of that something is a run defense. APR will pick the Packers to beat the Bears next week, but I'll be really surprised if that actually happens.

Ravens (-10)
The Ravens beat up on a pretty bad Texans team. They've got the Giants next, which should finally resolve the #2/#3 issue once and for all.

Historically Bad Teams Watch

With the Rams blow-out loss to the Jets this week, they are now averaging -17.11 net points per game this season, which is good for 5th-worst place since 1970, just ahead of the 4th-worst 1981 Colts, who averaged -17.12 net points per game.

Also worth mentioning: Lions are at -14.00/game (#21), Bengals are at -12.33/game (#30), and the Raiders are at -11.67/game (#38).