Sunday, November 23, 2008

NCAA: APR's top 30+, Week 13

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Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to NCAA.

Rankings will be updated when that game is final, and when BCS standings are out. Update: done


RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)Florida
BCS=4
10-11.7105
(LW × 0.968)
won by 51
vs Citadel
2 (-)Texas
BCS=2
10-11.7055
(LW × 0.999)
Bye
3 (↑1)Oklahoma
BCS=3
10-11.7002
(LW × 1.045)
won by 44
vs Texas-Tech
4 (↑1)Penn-St
BCS=8
11-11.6529
(LW × 1.019)
won by 31
vs Michigan-St
5 (↑1)USC
BCS=5
9-11.5950
(LW × 0.997)
Bye
6 (↓3)Texas-Tech
BCS=7
10-11.5940
(LW × 0.954)
lost by 44
at Oklahoma
7 (↑2)Alabama
BCS=1
11-01.5672
(LW × 1.018)
Bye
8 (↓1)Ohio-St
BCS=10
10-21.5584
(LW × 0.995)
won by 35
vs Michigan
9 (↑1)Boise-St
BCS=9
11-01.5538
(LW × 1.011)
won by 7
at Nevada
10 (↑2)Utah
BCS=6
12-01.5497
(LW × 1.040)
won by 24
vs BYU
11 (↑3)TCU
BCS=14
10-21.5127
(LW × 1.022)
won by 34
vs Air-Force
12 (↑3)Ball-St
BCS=15
11-01.5037
(LW × 1.017)
won by 7
at Cent-Michigan
13 (↑17)Florida-St
BCS=20
8-31.4975
(LW × 1.074)
won by 34
at Maryland
14 (↓3)Missouri
BCS=13
9-21.4865
(LW × 0.996)
Bye
15 (↑3)Boston-Coll
BCS=21
8-31.4810
(LW × 1.022)
won by 3
at Wake-Forest
16 (↑4)Cincinnati
BCS=16
9-21.4750
(LW × 1.023)
won by 7
vs Pittsburgh
17 (↓4)Georgia
BCS=11
9-21.4744
(LW × 0.996)
Bye
18 (↑3)West-Virginia7-31.4724
(LW × 1.031)
won by 14
at Louisville
19 (↑9)Mississippi7-41.4701
(LW × 1.049)
won by 18
at LSU
20 (↓1)Rutgers6-51.4629
(LW × 1.012)
won by 27
vs Army
21 (↓4)Oklahoma-St
BCS=12
9-21.4627
(LW × 0.997)
Bye
22 (↑4)Iowa8-41.4530
(LW × 1.034)
won by 55
at Minnesota
23 (↑2)Oregon-St
BCS=17
8-31.4333
(LW × 1.017)
won by 2
at Arizona
24 (↓16)North-Carolina7-41.4320
(LW × 0.924)
lost by 31
vs NC-State
25 (↓9)Michigan-St
BCS=19
9-31.4282
(LW × 0.974)
lost by 31
at Penn-St
26 (↑1)Nebraska7-41.4011
(LW × 0.997)
Bye
27 (↓3)Pittsburgh
BCS=25
7-31.3975
(LW × 0.983)
lost by 7
at Cincinnati
28 (↑19)Georgia-Tech
BCS=22
8-31.3885
(LW × 1.058)
won by 18
vs Miami-FL
29 (↓6)BYU
BCS=18
10-21.3871
(LW × 0.973)
lost by 24
at Utah
30 (↓1)Virginia-Tech7-41.3855
(LW × 0.989)
won by 11
vs Duke
31 (↑1)South-Carolina7-41.3830
(LW × 1.007)
Bye
32 (↑21)Clemson6-51.3739
(LW × 1.070)
won by 10
at Virginia
33 (↓2)Connecticut7-41.3726
(LW × 0.986)
lost by 4
at South-Florida
34 (↓1)Oregon
BCS=23
8-31.3644
(LW × 1.003)
Bye
35 (↑6)Northwestern
BCS=24
9-31.3594
(LW × 1.028)
won by 17
vs Illinois

Comments:

  • Texas is just barely below #1 Florida. But the Longhorns have 4-7 Texas A&M left to play; even a blow-out win will likely drop them so far they would need Florida and Oklahoma both to lose to have any chance at the top spot in the week 15 standings.

  • What happened to Texas Tech's ability to play run defense? That was brutal. It seemed like every time I looked at the game, Oklahoma was getting another big run on them. The Sooners finished with 299 yards rushing. Two players rushed for more than 100 yards. A stunning collapse for the defense of a team formerly ranked #2 by the BCS and #3 by APR.

  • If Alabama loses to Florida December 6th... What happens if Utah, Boise State, and Ball State are the only ranked unbeaten teams? If the NCAA had a playoff system...

  • Seriously—LSU is out of the top 25 now, right? Update: right.

  • After starting 1-5, Rutgers has gone on a 5-game winning streak to make it to 6 wins and bowl elegibility. Especially if they win their final game vs Louisville, the BCS needs to find a bowl game for these guys.

  • Of course Wisconsin nearly choked on their Cal Poly-flavored cupcake, needing overtime to get to their 7th win of the season. (On the other hand, Cal Poly finished their season 8-2, so maybe they were not as much a cupcake as the Badgers might have hoped.)