Wednesday, November 5, 2008

NFL Week 10 Picks

2008 Navigation Links

Picks for week 10, based on the week 9 rankings.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line values are taken from yahoo.com (excepte Colts @ Steelers and Ravens @ Texans, taken from footballlocks.com), and are for comparison purposes only.

GameAPRSRSLine
San Francisco 49ers @
Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals
ρ=1.3406
Cardinals
δ=12.70
Cardinals
-9½
Carolina Panthers @
Oakland Raiders
Panthers
ρ=1.3159
Panthers
δ=20.63
Panthers
-9
Baltimore Ravens @
Houston Texans
Ravens
ρ=1.1949
Ravens
δ=6.10
Ravens
-1
Jacksonville Jaguars @
Detroit Lions
Jaguars
ρ=1.1716
Jaguars
δ=9.74
Jaguars
-6½
Seattle Seahawks @
Miami Dolphins
Dolphins
ρ=1.1647
Dolphins
δ=8.23
Dolphins
-9
St. Louis Rams @
New York Jets
Jets
ρ=1.1630
Jets
δ=10.86
Jets
-8
Kansas City Chiefs @
San Diego Chargers
Chargers
ρ=1.1623
Chargers
δ=12.96
Chargers
-15½
Denver Broncos @
Cleveland Browns
Browns
ρ=1.1436
Browns
δ=6.26
Browns
-3
Indianapolis Colts @
Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers
ρ=1.1248
Steelers
δ=7.60
Steelers
-3½
Tennessee Titans @
Chicago Bears
Titans
ρ=1.1054
Titans
δ=3.53
Titans
-3
New Orleans Saints @
Atlanta Falcons
Falcons
ρ=1.0738
Falcons
δ=1.10
Falcons
-1
Green Bay Packers @
Minnesota Vikings
Packers
ρ=1.0448
Packers
δ=2.88
Vikings
-2
Buffalo Bills @
New England Patriots
Patriots
ρ=1.0136
Bills
δ=0.24
Patriots
-3½
New York Giants @
Philadelphia Eagles
Giants
ρ=1.0065
Giants
δ=0.31
Eagles
-3
Bye: Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Washington Redskins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Comments:

  • Don't forget there's a Thursday game this week!

  • Disagreement on Packers @ Vikings, Bills @ Patriots, and Giants @ Eagles

  • Both APR and SRS rankings indicate Bills @ Patriots and Giants @ Eagles are close match-ups.

  • Chargers -15½? The Chargers seem to run hot and cold this year, and the Chiefs gave the Bucs a scare last week. I'm terrible at picking against the line, but this seems pretty iffy to me.

  • Cardinals -9½ seems like it should be a lock, but the Cardinals have had almost inexplicable troubles beating the 49ers. You may remember last years' 49ers @ Cardinals game, which went to overtime, and ended when Kurt Warner fumbled in his own end zone, recovered by the 49ers.