Picks for week 10, based on the week 9 rankings.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line values are taken
from yahoo.com (excepte
Colts @ Steelers and Ravens @ Texans, taken from footballlocks.com), and are for comparison purposes only.
Game | APR | SRS | Line |
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals | Cardinals ρ=1.3406 | Cardinals δ=12.70 | Cardinals -9½ |
Carolina Panthers @ Oakland Raiders | Panthers ρ=1.3159 | Panthers δ=20.63 | Panthers -9 |
Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans | Ravens ρ=1.1949 | Ravens δ=6.10 | Ravens -1 |
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions | Jaguars ρ=1.1716 | Jaguars δ=9.74 | Jaguars -6½ |
Seattle Seahawks @ Miami Dolphins | Dolphins ρ=1.1647 | Dolphins δ=8.23 | Dolphins -9 |
St. Louis Rams @ New York Jets | Jets ρ=1.1630 | Jets δ=10.86 | Jets -8 |
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers | Chargers ρ=1.1623 | Chargers δ=12.96 | Chargers -15½ |
Denver Broncos @ Cleveland Browns | Browns ρ=1.1436 | Browns δ=6.26 | Browns -3 |
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Steelers ρ=1.1248 | Steelers δ=7.60 | Steelers -3½ |
Tennessee Titans @ Chicago Bears | Titans ρ=1.1054 | Titans δ=3.53 | Titans -3 |
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons | Falcons ρ=1.0738 | Falcons δ=1.10 | Falcons -1 |
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings | Packers ρ=1.0448 | Packers δ=2.88 | Vikings -2 |
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots | Patriots ρ=1.0136 | Bills δ=0.24 | Patriots -3½ |
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles | Giants ρ=1.0065 | Giants δ=0.31 | Eagles -3 |
Comments:
Don't forget there's a Thursday game this week!
Disagreement on Packers @ Vikings, Bills @ Patriots, and Giants @ Eagles
Both APR and SRS rankings indicate Bills @ Patriots and Giants @ Eagles are close match-ups.
Chargers -15½? The Chargers seem to run hot and cold this year, and the Chiefs gave the Bucs a scare last week. I'm terrible at picking against the line, but this seems pretty iffy to me.
Cardinals -9½ seems like it should be a lock, but the Cardinals have had almost inexplicable troubles beating the 49ers. You may remember last years' 49ers @ Cardinals game, which went to overtime, and ended when Kurt Warner fumbled in his own end zone, recovered by the 49ers.