Tuesday, November 25, 2008

NFL Week 12 Power Rankings

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (↑1)New York
Giants
10-11.5364
(LW × 1.009)
won by 8
at Cardinals
2 (↓1)Tennessee
Titans
10-11.4775
(LW × 0.939)
lost by 21
vs Jets
3 (-)Baltimore
Ravens
7-41.4762
(LW × 1.032)
won by 29
vs Eagles
4 (↑7)New York
Jets
8-31.4589
(LW × 1.102)
won by 21
at Titans
5 (↑1)Pittsburgh
Steelers
8-31.4049
(LW × 1.003)
won by 17
vs Bengals
6 (↓2)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
8-31.4047
(LW × 1.001)
won by 18
at Lions
7 (↑2)Indianapolis
Colts
7-41.3828
(LW × 1.029)
won by 3
at Chargers
8 (↑6)Atlanta
Falcons
7-41.3819
(LW × 1.054)
won by 17
vs Panthers
9 (↑9)New England
Patriots
7-41.3728
(LW × 1.077)
won by 20
at Dolphins
10 (↑2)Minnesota
Vikings
6-51.3704
(LW × 1.040)
won by 18
at Jaguars
11 (↓6)Green Bay
Packers
5-61.3482
(LW × 0.961)
lost by 22
at Saints
12 (↓4)Carolina
Panthers
8-31.3414
(LW × 0.985)
lost by 17
at Falcons
13 (↑8)New Orleans
Saints
6-51.3287
(LW × 1.066)
won by 22
vs Packers
14 (↓7)Philadelphia
Eagles
5-5-11.3215
(LW × 0.970)
lost by 29
at Ravens
15 (-)Chicago
Bears
6-51.3033
(LW × 1.017)
won by 24
at Rams
16 (↓6)Arizona
Cardinals
7-41.2995
(LW × 0.980)
lost by 8
vs Giants
17 (↓4)Dallas
Cowboys
7-41.2970
(LW × 0.987)
won by 13
vs 49ers
18 (↑1)San Diego
Chargers
4-71.2921
(LW × 1.014)
lost by 3
vs Colts
19 (↓3)Miami
Dolphins
6-51.2551
(LW × 0.979)
lost by 20
vs Patriots
20 (↑5)Buffalo
Bills
6-51.2487
(LW × 1.051)
won by 23
at Chiefs
21 (↑3)Houston
Texans
4-71.2468
(LW × 1.050)
won by 10
at Browns
22 (-)Washington
Redskins
7-41.2416
(LW × 0.999)
won by 3
at Seahawks
23 (↓6)Cleveland
Browns
4-71.2249
(LW × 0.960)
lost by 10
vs Texans
24 (↓4)Jacksonville
Jaguars
4-71.1937
(LW × 0.946)
lost by 18
vs Vikings
25 (↑5)Oakland
Raiders
3-81.1930
(LW × 1.096)
won by 21
at Broncos
26 (↓3)Denver
Broncos
6-51.1856
(LW × 0.959)
lost by 21
vs Raiders
27 (-)Cincinnati
Bengals
1-9-11.1208
(LW × 0.984)
lost by 17
at Steelers
28 (↓2)Seattle
Seahawks
2-91.1190
(LW × 0.977)
lost by 3
vs Redskins
29 (↓1)San Francisco
49ers
3-81.1085
(LW × 0.995)
lost by 13
at Cowboys
30 (↓1)Kansas City
Chiefs
1-101.0827
(LW × 0.980)
lost by 23
vs Bills
31 (-)St. Louis
Rams
2-91.0257
(LW × 0.987)
lost by 24
vs Bears
32 (-)Detroit
Lions
0-111.0049
(LW × 0.990)
lost by 18
vs Buccaneers

Comments:

  • The Giants finally get to the top spot, thanks in part to the Jets' beat-down on the Titans. The Titans' lose 6.1% of their power index, and are now just a sliver above the Ravens.

  • Note that the Bucs' power actually did increase (a little) on their win over the Lions; just not enough to stay ahead of the Jets and Steelers.

  • The Patriots get a very good win over the Dolphins, and APR finally moves them up to the top 10.

  • The Redskins get another close win against a bad team. With the Giants and Ravens yet to play, they're probably not going to do better than 3-2 in their last 5. With the Cowboys, Panthers, and Falcons all at 7 or more wins, 10-6 (without the right tie-breakers) might not be enough to get an NFC wildcard spot this year.

  • Are the Chargers really out of the playoffs? APR still has them ranked over the Broncos, but looking at the Chargers remaining schedule, I'm not sure I see even 3 teams they can beat. The Broncos might not make it past 8 wins, but that's probably all it's going to take to win the AFC West this year.

  • Of the 8 teams that played in the divisional round of the playoffs last year (Jaguars, Patriots, Chargers, Colts, Seahawks, Packers, Giants and Cowboys), all but the Giants have suffered at least a moderate drop-off of strength from last year. Half of them (Jaguars, Chargers, Seahawks, and Packers) currently have a losing record.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Redskins (+10)
The Redskins had a chance to move up in APR's rankings this week. Even a 7-point win would've moved them up 3 spots. Somebody needs to tell ESPN that 3 points over a 2-9 opponent does not qualify as a "solid road win" for a team in the playoff hunt.

Cowboys (+8)
APR doesn't know about garbage-time points, so the Cowboys 13-point win looks closer than it was.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Ravens (-10)
ESPN and APR both hold the Ravens steady on their win over the Eagles. Maybe they're not as good as APR has them, but how can ESPN rank them below the Redskins?

Packers (-9)
APR drops the Packers out of the top 10. ESPN drops them 4 spots, partly because how damaging that loss was to the Packers playoff hopes.

Historically Bad Teams Watch

There could easily be 4 new teams in the "top" 50 at the end of this season. Unless the Rams get another win, they are guaranteed a spot in the top 30. The Chiefs and Bengals play in week 17, so at least one of these teams should get another win.

RankTeamNet Pts/GameW-LNext Week
11976 Buccaneers-20.500-14n/a
21972 Patriots-18.143-11n/a
32008 Rams-17.912-9vs Dolphins
41973 Oilers-17.711-13n/a
51967 Falcons-17.641-12n/a
...............
222008 Lions-13.910-11vs Titans
...............
342008 Chiefs-11.911-10@ Raiders
...............
382008 Bengals-11.641-9-1vs Ravens

The next 2008 team to appear on this list is the Raiders, who are currently #127.