| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals @ Eagles | Bengals ρ=1.2065 | Bengals* δ=8.3 | Bengals -3 |
| Jaguars @ Dolphins | Dolphins ρ=1.2025 | Dolphins δ=9.1 | Dolphins -7 |
| Seahawks @ Bills | Seahawks ρ=1.1634 | Seahawks* δ=14.4 | Seahawks -5 |
| Lions @ Cardinals | Lions ρ=1.1343 | Lions* δ=4.8 | Lions -6 |
| Broncos @ Ravens | Broncos ρ=1.1264 | Broncos* δ=4.6 | Broncos -3 |
| 49ers @ Patriots | Patriots ρ=1.0863 | Patriots δ=3.3 | Patriots -6 |
| Colts @ Texans | Texans ρ=1.0862 | Texans δ=11.7 | Texans -9 |
| Jets @ Titans | Jets ρ=1.0733 | Jets* δ=5.5 | Titans -1 |
| Giants @ Falcons | Giants ρ=1.0675 | Giants* δ=5.3 | Falcons -1 |
| Packers @ Bears | Packers ρ=1.0646 | Bears δ=2.6 | Packers -3 |
| Redskins @ Browns | Redskins ρ=1.0507 | Redskins* δ=5.5 | Redskins -1 |
| Chiefs @ Raiders | Raiders ρ=1.0385 | Raiders δ=0.3 | Raiders -2½ |
| Vikings @ Rams | Rams* ρ=1.0152 | Vikings* δ=1.2 | Rams -2½ |
| Steelers @ Cowboys | Steelers ρ=1.0148 | Cowboys δ=1.7 | Steelers -2 |
| Panthers @ Chargers | Panthers ρ=1.0134 | Chargers δ=0.4 | Chargers -3 |
| Buccaneers @ Saints | Saints* ρ=1.0031 | Buccaneers* δ=4.2 | Saints -3½ |
Comments:
No line for Redskins @ Browns while RG3's status is up in the air. I will update when something is announced. Update: RG3 will be a game-time decision; a couple lines are saying Redskins -1, so I'm going with that.
The Packers will clinch the NFC North with a win over the Bears. If the Packers do clinch the division, it will be the first time as back-to-back division champions since 2003-2004.
The Colts can also clinch a playoff spot with a win, but with the Texans smarting from a prime-time embarrassment in Foxborough, that would be a pretty major upset.
I'm a little surprised the Line is taking the Broncos over the Ravens. In spite of their troubles, the Ravens are 5-1 at home. On the other hand, the Ravens are starting to show signs of fading down the stretch—they are 1-2 in their last 3, including that skin-of-their-teeth overtime win at the Chargers.
SRS is really feeling its oats this week, with 4 rogue picks. SRS is 1-7 when picking against APR and the Line this season. (The lone success was a week 5 pick of the Dolphins over the Bengals.)
