Tuesday, December 4, 2012

NFL Week 13 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (8-5)


Texans @ Titans
Patriots @ Dolphins
Bengals @ Chargers
Saints @ Falcons
Jaguars @ Bills
Vikings @ Packers
Buccaneers @ Broncos
Eagles @ Cowboys


Seahawks @ Bears
Injuries are piling up on the Bears' defense, and it certainly showed on Sunday. The Seahawks have been notoriously bad on the road this year, but the Bears gave up more yards to the Seahawks than any other game this season. This was also the most yards gained by the Seahawks' offense, home or away.
Steelers @ Ravens
The Ravens really need to hold their opponents under 21 points or so. All 3 of their losses have come when their opponents scored 23+ points (they had a similar stat last year as well). But Charlie Batch had a pretty decent game against them, and the Steelers were able to take advantage of a critical late turnover to tie the game, and then use the final 6:14 of game time to drive for the game-winning field goal.
Giants @ Redskins
I've written before about the Giants' vulnerability to good running teams, and the Redskins did a good job of exploiting it. In racking up over 200 yards of rushing, the kept Manning, Bradshaw, and Cruz off the field and away from opportunities to score points. The result was, even though they only punted 3 times, the Giants (thanks in part to a missed field goal) only managed to score 16 points, which wasn't enough to beat the Redskins.
Panthers @ Chiefs
Three weeks ago, I said the Chiefs would be a better team if they could stop turning the ball over. In their last 4 games, they've only turned the ball over 3 times, and this week, for the first time all season, they didn't turn the ball over at all. Turnovers haven't been the Chiefs only problem, but as long as they have them under control, they should be able to beat some of their lesser opponents.
49ers @ Rams
It shouldn't be too much of a surprise that Colin Kaepernick looked a lot like a 2nd-year player on his 3rd start. The 49ers had just 3 drives go longer than 19 yards. Even without the safety and lost fumble, it's really hard to win in the NFL when your offense only scores 13 points.

Split Picks: (APR: 3-0, SRS: 1-2, Line: 1-2)

Browns (APR, SRS) @ Raiders (Line)
This game is the perfect example of why yards gained is a lousy measure of how good an offense is. The Raiders gained 429 yards in this game, But for all those yards gained, they only managed to score 17 points, including a late, garbage-time touchdown.
Cardinals (SRS) @ Jets (APR, Line)
This was certainly a highly winnable game for the Cardinals. But their offense just wasn't able to move the ball, going 0-15 on 3rd down conversions. Play calling was also an issue for the Cardinals. Early in the game, they elected to go for a 4th down conversion (which failed) rather than taking a chip-shot field goal. A decision that must loom large in a game decided by 1 point.
Colts (APR) @ Lions (SRS, Line)
The Lions have been in pretty much every game they've played this year, and only lost by more than 8 points one time. But like the Panthers, they are just not able to establish and hang on to a 4th-quarter lead.


A nice week for APR would've been nicer if so many unanimous picks hadn't gone wrong.

APR 11-5 108-67-161.6%
SRS 9-7 104-71-159.4%
Line 9-7 114-61-165.1%