| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs @ Broncos | Broncos ρ=1.5566 | Broncos δ=22.9 | Broncos -16 |
| Cardinals @ 49ers | 49ers ρ=1.3519 | 49ers δ=13.1 | 49ers -16½ |
| Eagles @ Giants | Giants ρ=1.2530 | Giants δ=12.7 | Giants -7 |
| Dolphins @ Patriots | Patriots ρ=1.2014 | Patriots δ=13.8 | Patriots -10 |
| Rams @ Seahawks | Seahawks ρ=1.1852 | Seahawks δ=12.6 | Seahawks -10½ |
| Buccaneers @ Falcons | Falcons ρ=1.1598 | Falcons δ=7.9 | Falcons -4½ |
| Bears @ Lions | Bears ρ=1.1384 | Bears* δ=10.0 | Bears -3 |
| Jaguars @ Titans | Titans ρ=1.1297 | Titans δ=1.1 | Titans -4 |
| Raiders @ Chargers | Chargers* ρ=1.1166 | Chargers δ=9.1 | Chargers -10 |
| Cowboys @ Redskins | Redskins* ρ=1.0622 | Redskins δ=2.2 | Redskins -3 |
| Packers @ Vikings | Packers ρ=1.0591 | Packers* δ=4.8 | Packers -3 |
| Browns @ Steelers | Steelers* ρ=1.0483 | Steelers δ=3.6 | Steelers -10 |
| Texans @ Colts | Texans ρ=1.0414 | Texans* δ=10.6 | Texans -7 |
| Jets @ Bills | Jets ρ=1.0290 | Jets* δ=3.1 | Bills -3½ |
| Ravens @ Bengals | Bengals* ρ=1.0235 | Ravens* δ=1.6 | Bengals -2½ |
| Panthers @ Saints | Saints* ρ=1.0219 | Saints δ=1.4 | Saints -5½ |
Comments:
3 games with no lines as of Wednesday morning. As usual, I will update these later in the week (assuming the status changes). Update: finally done!
As usual, APR and SRS do not take into account teams that have clinched their playoff seed and have nothing to play for.
That said, there's still a lot of teams with something to play for. The seeding of the top 4 teams in the AFC is still to be decided. On the NFC side, only the Falcons have their seed clinched, and there are still two open playoff spots.
There's also a surprising amount of agreement in the picks. I assume the Line is taking the Bills over the Jets because of the McElroy effect.
The Ravens could theoretically move up to the #3 seed, but either way they (and the Bengals) will be playing on wildcard weekend. Thus, that game is likely to be a battle of the back-ups most of the way, so taking the home team there makes as much sense as anything.
Your probably-meaningless stat of the week: the Packers are 19-3 in week 17. As you might expect, these games cover the range of possibilities, from resting their players last year, to a must-win game in 2010, to a very bad team playing out the season in 2005.
The Packers have a chance to clinch the #2 seed and the bye week that goes with it, and so will certainly be playing for the win this week 17.
