Wednesday, December 17, 2014

NFL Week 16 Game Picks

GameAPRSRSLine
Patriots @
Jets
Patriots
ρ=1.4314
Patriots*
δ=20.6
Patriots
-10
Packers @
Buccaneers
Packers
ρ=1.3085
Packers*
δ=18.4
Packers
-10
Eagles @
Washington
Eagles
ρ=1.2619
Eagles*
δ=13.4
Eagles
-7½
Broncos @
Bengals
Broncos
ρ=1.2250
Broncos*
δ=10.2
Broncos
-3
Lions @
Bears
Lions
ρ=1.2168
Lions*
δ=9.8
Lions
-7
Giants @
Rams
Rams
ρ=1.1874
Rams
δ=2.9
Rams
-5
Bills @
Raiders
Bills
ρ=1.1841
Bills*
δ=14.0
Bills
-6
Vikings @
Dolphins
Dolphins
ρ=1.1360
Dolphins
δ=6.4
Dolphins
-6½
Chiefs @
Steelers
Chiefs*
ρ=1.0845
Chiefs*
δ=5.6
Steelers
-3
Ravens @
Texans
Ravens
ρ=1.0791
Ravens*
δ=4.6
Ravens
-5
Titans @
Jaguars
Jaguars
ρ=1.0683
Jaguars
δ=0.5
Jaguars
-3
Chargers @
49ers
Chargers
ρ=1.0585
Chargers*
δ=4.5
49ers
-2
Colts @
Cowboys
Colts
ρ=1.0452
Colts*
δ=4.9
Cowboys
-2½
Seahawks @
Cardinals
Seahawks*
ρ=1.0372
Seahawks*
δ=3.7
Seahawks
-8
Browns @
Panthers
Browns
ρ=1.0356
Browns*
δ=2.0
Panthers
-2½
Falcons @
Saints
Saints*
ρ=1.0251
Saints
δ=1.0
Saints
-5½

Comments:

  • No line for Browns @ Panthers. Maybe waiting to see if Cam Newton will play? I'll update later on in the week. Update: done.

  • A lot of the games this week have playoff implications. Then there's Titans @ Jaguars which... has draft implications.

  • Seahawks @ Cardinals is for the NFC West, and probably the top seed in the NFC. The Cardinals are reduced to starting erstwhile 3rd string backup Ryan Lindley. If the Cardinals' defense can hold their opponent to 6 points again, they'll have a chance. But I think if the Seahawks get 14 points on the board, that could be game over for the Cards.

  • With the Texans reduced to starting either fourth year backup Thad Lewis or off-the-street pickup Case Keenum, I'm a little surprised the Ravens are only getting 5 points in this game. The Ravens have quietly put together one of the highest scoring offenses in the league this season, and this has the feel of a game where the Ravens may only need a couple touchdowns to secure a 5 point margin of victory.

  • I'm not really sure why the Line is taking the 49ers here. They're out of the playoffs, they're riddled with injuries, and coming off a string of bitter losses. Meanwhile, the Chargers are still alive for one of the AFC wildcard spots, and desperately need a win to stay in the race. I think unless the Chargers fall flat on their faces, this is a game they should win.

  • I'm tempted to say the Colts have a real chance for an upset at the Cowboys, except for that whole Colts usually lose big on the road against good opponents thing that seemed to start when Andrew Luck came to town. But DeMarco Murray will either be out or playing hurt, so the Cowboys won't be at their full strength, either.