| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons @ Packers | Packers ρ=1.2883 | Packers δ=13.3 | Packers -12 |
| Buccaneers @ Lions | Lions ρ=1.2614 | Lions δ=12.9 | Lions -9½ |
| Patriots @ Chargers | Patriots ρ=1.1992 | Patriots* δ=9.6 | Patriots -3½ |
| Rams @ Washington | Rams ρ=1.1957 | Rams* δ=6.8 | Rams -2½ |
| Texans @ Jaguars | Texans ρ=1.1898 | Texans* δ=12.6 | Texans -5½ |
| Panthers @ Saints | Saints ρ=1.1543 | Saints δ=7.6 | Saints -10 |
| 49ers @ Raiders | 49ers ρ=1.1340 | 49ers* δ=9.8 | 49ers -8 |
| Colts @ Browns | Colts ρ=1.1332 | Colts* δ=9.6 | Colts -3½ |
| Bills @ Broncos | Broncos ρ=1.1180 | Broncos δ=4.7 | Broncos -10 |
| Ravens @ Dolphins | Dolphins ρ=1.1101 | Dolphins δ=2.6 | Dolphins -2½ |
| Giants @ Titans | Giants ρ=1.1029 | Giants* δ=5.2 | Giants -1 |
| Jets @ Vikings | Vikings ρ=1.0537 | Vikings δ=5.2 | Vikings -7 |
| Cowboys @ Bears | Cowboys ρ=1.0534 | Cowboys* δ=6.0 | Cowboys -3½ |
| Chiefs @ Cardinals | Chiefs* ρ=1.0494 | Chiefs* δ=3.7 | Cardinals -1½ |
| Steelers @ Bengals | Bengals ρ=1.0146 | Bengals δ=0.8 | Bengals -3 |
| Seahawks @ Eagles | Seahawks ρ=1.0041 | Seahawks* δ=0.8 | Eagles -1 |
Comments:
No line for Giants @ Titans, probably because the Giants are a mess right now, injury wise. I'll check again Saturday. Update: I see a line with Giants -1, so I'm going with that.
The Cards are coming off an embarrassing loss last Sunday, will be playing at home. In a very tough remaining schedule, this is one of the Cards' best chances to notch another win. I think the NFC West winner will have at least 11 wins, so the Cardinals really need to win their last two home games to have a chance. (And hope the Eagles can give them some help by beating the Seahawks this week.)
When the Saints play well, they can go toe-to-toe with the best teams in the league. When they don't play well, they're just another bad NFC South team. If they play more like the team that pounded the Steelers, and less like the team that couldn't get a home win against the Bengals, they should take the NFC South pretty easy. The first step is to take care of the Panthers, who haven't won since the first week in October.
The Dolphins are unanimously picked to beat the Ravens which (given the way the Fins looked Monday night) feels like a mistake. If they can't do something about their run defense, this will almost certainly be a game I'll be writing about in the pick results post.
There's an amusing symmetry with the Cowboys and Bears. The Cowboys are 8-0 when they score 20 or more points, the Bears are 0-7 when they allow more than 20 points. I think the Cowboys will score early and often on the Bears' bad defense, the Bears' mediocre offense (which hasn't scored more than 28 points all season) won't be able to keep up, and both of those streaks will be extended Thursday night.
I'm not quite sure what to make of the Seahawks @ Eagles match up. Mark Sanchez (apart from the game against the Packers) has done surprisingly well in relief of Nick Foles, although (again, apart from the Packers, and maybe the Cowboys) he's faced some pretty weak teams. If the Seahawks' defense can get some pressure, they can probably take over this game. But the way the Eagles can score points, it may only take a few mistakes by the Seahawks for the Eagles to get enough of a lead to control the game themselves.
Either way, I feel like this game will be decided when the Eagles offense and the Seahawks defense is on the field.
