| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals @ Falcons | Cardinals ρ=1.3053 | Cardinals* δ=9.8 | Cardinals -2½ |
| Dolphins @ Jets | Dolphins ρ=1.2929 | Dolphins* δ=16.4 | Dolphins -5½ |
| Washington @ Colts | Colts ρ=1.2197 | Colts δ=13.8 | Colts -9½ |
| Titans @ Texans | Texans ρ=1.2076 | Texans δ=9.2 | Texans -6 |
| Bengals @ Buccaneers | Bengals ρ=1.1728 | Bengals* δ=12.5 | Bengals -4 |
| Patriots @ Packers | Patriots ρ=1.1189 | Patriots* δ=4.8 | Packers -3 |
| Giants @ Jaguars | Giants ρ=1.1185 | Giants* δ=7.7 | Giants -2½ |
| Raiders @ Rams | Rams ρ=1.1114 | Rams δ=0.7 | Rams -7 |
| Bears @ Lions | Lions ρ=1.1007 | Lions δ=7.0 | Lions -7 |
| Browns @ Bills | Bills ρ=1.0817 | Bills δ=6.0 | Bills -2½ |
| Panthers @ Vikings | Vikings ρ=1.0598 | Vikings δ=3.8 | Vikings -3 |
| Saints @ Steelers | Steelers ρ=1.0504 | Steelers δ=0.2 | Steelers -3½ |
| Seahawks @ 49ers | Seahawks ρ=1.0368 | Seahawks* δ=5.8 | 49ers -1 |
| Eagles @ Cowboys | Eagles ρ=1.0146 | Eagles* δ=2.0 | Cowboys -3 |
| Broncos @ Chiefs | Broncos* ρ=1.0110 | Broncos* δ=1.8 | Broncos -2 |
| Chargers @ Ravens | Ravens ρ=1.0071 | Ravens δ=2.2 | Ravens -5½ |
Comments:
Every NFC South team lost last week, and all are unanimously picked to lose this week. If that happens, every NFC South team will have at least 8 losses.
There have already been complaints about a bad NFC South division winner making the playoffs, while two of the Eagles (8-3), Cowboys (8-3), Packers (8-3), Lions (7-4), Cardinals (9-2), Seahawks (7-4) and 49ers (7-4) will be out of the playoffs.
But the truth is, the most direct route to the playoffs is, and always has been, win your division. When league switched to four division winners and two wildcards in 2002, that became even more important. You wanna make the playoffs? All you gotta do is be better than three other teams.
The battle cry of the playoffs has always been "you wanna be the best, you gotta beat the best". Does anybody really think it's a good idea to change it to "we're kinda good too"? Anyway, rant over.
The Packers have been very good at home this season, but I was a lot more confident they could win this week before the Patriots beat the Broncos, Colts, and Lions all by 22 points or more. I'm not sure the Packers defense will be able to stop Gronkowski or the Pats running game, so this could be a game like Packers @ Saints, where the Packers get buried as soon as the offense falters.
Seahawks @ 49ers is a critical game for both teams. The the loser will be 3 games out of first place in the NFC West (assuming the Cardinals take care of business with the Falcons) and at 7-5, will be on the outside looking in for a wildcard spot too.
Eagles @ Cowboys is the first half of the home-and-away series that will likely decide the NFC East winner. Looking at the tie breaker situation, the Cowboys probably have to sweep this series in order to win the division.
