| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars @ Ravens | Ravens ρ=1.3327 | Ravens δ=18.1 | Ravens -14 |
| Raiders @ Chiefs | Chiefs ρ=1.2255 | Chiefs δ=14.3 | Chiefs -10½ |
| 49ers @ Seahawks | Seahawks ρ=1.1812 | Seahawks δ=9.1 | Seahawks -10 |
| Dolphins @ Patriots | Patriots ρ=1.1766 | Patriots δ=6.0 | Patriots -8 |
| Jets @ Titans | Jets ρ=1.1688 | Jets* δ=4.9 | Jets -1 |
| Vikings @ Lions | Lions ρ=1.1527 | Lions δ=4.7 | Lions -8 |
| Broncos @ Chargers | Broncos ρ=1.1475 | Broncos* δ=6.9 | Broncos -4 |
| Steelers @ Falcons | Steelers ρ=1.0858 | Steelers* δ=3.4 | Steelers -3 |
| Texans @ Colts | Colts* ρ=1.0811 | Colts δ=5.5 | Colts -6½ |
| Cowboys @ Eagles | Eagles* ρ=1.0691 | Eagles δ=4.3 | Eagles -3 |
| Packers @ Bills | Packers* ρ=1.0688 | Packers* δ=4.2 | Packers -5 |
| Washington @ Giants | Giants* ρ=1.0644 | Giants δ=5.8 | Giants -6½ |
| Cardinals @ Rams | Cardinals* ρ=1.0484 | Cardinals* δ=3.4 | Rams -4½ |
| Buccaneers @ Panthers | Panthers* ρ=1.0276 | Panthers δ=5.1 | Panthers -5½ |
| Bengals @ Browns | Bengals ρ=1.0163 | Bengals* δ=0.1 | Bengals -1 |
| Saints @ Bears | Bears* ρ=1.0030 | Saints* δ=3.3 | Saints -3 |
Comments:
Given the situation with Cam Newton, I'm surprised at this point that there's a line for the Bucs-Panthers game. I guess bettors figure the Bucs are just that bad.
Cowboys @ Eagles will probably decide the NFC East, which theoretically makes for a good game. But if goes anything like the first half of this matchup, the game is gonna be over by halftime.
Random stat I just noticed: the AFC North leading Bengals are the only team in that division with a negative point differential (points scored - points allowed). In spite of the fact that all the teams (still) have winning records, the AFC North seems like one of the weakest divisions in the league.
The Ravens seem like the best team in that division, and it seems like they've got an easy enough remaining schedule to win out. But then, I thought them beating the Chargers was an all but sure thing, too.
APR likes the Cardinals over the Rams, which seems like a mistake to me. Credit HC Jeff Fisher, the Rams have been playing really tough this season, and given the Cardinals anemic offense, the Rams could have a shot at their third shut out in a row.
APR likes the Bears over the Saints, which seems like a mistake too. I think the Bears defense is bad enough at this point that Drew Brees and the Saints offense will score enough points that it will be one of those games where the Bears are doomed the first time they have a drive that doesn't end in a touchdown.
On the other hand, I thought the Saints were gonna make short work of the Panthers last week, so maybe I should just stop trying to guess what's gonna happen in the NFC South.
