NFL Wrapup: Pythagorian Projection vs. Reality

As usual, the "Projected Wins" value is used as a baseline, so a positive difference means the team exceeded their projected win value, a negative difference means they fell short.

Teams are sorted by the magnitude (absolute value) of the difference; teams that came close to their projected wins are near the top, teams farthest away from their projection are at the bottom.

This is a follow-up to a post from last summer. See this post for background details.

Team	Actual	Proj.	Diff.	Note
Jaguars	3	3.1	-0.1
Falcons	6	5.9	0.1
Chargers	9	9.2	-0.2
Broncos	12	11.7	0.3
Giants	6	5.6	0.4
Dolphins	8	7.5	0.5
Eagles	10	9.4	0.6
Bengals	10	11.1	-0.6
Seahawks	12	12.8	-0.8
Washington	4	4.8	-0.8
Vikings	7	6.1	0.9
Jets	4	5.4	-1.4
Patriots	12	10.5	1.5	Healthy Gronk
Cardinals	11	9.5	1.5	Carson Palmer was actually having a pretty good season before he got hurt.
Browns	7	5.5	1.5	Brian Hoyer
Colts	11	9.4	1.6
Rams	6	7.6	-1.6	Bradford injured
Raiders	3	4.9	-1.9
Chiefs	9	11.1	-2.1
Bears	5	7.3	-2.3	Offense collapsed
Bills	9	6.7	2.3	Defense much better
Lions	11	8.5	2.5	Defense much better
Steelers	11	8.2	2.8	Le'Veon Bell? The Steelers definitely had a rollercoaster season...
Ravens	10	7.1	2.9	Flacco playing better
Buccaneers	2	5.3	-3.3	No offense
49ers	8	11.5	-3.5	Injuries
Saints	7	10.8	-3.8	Drew Brees did not have a good year, weak defense didn't help.
Cowboys	12	8.2	3.8	Defense better, running game
Panthers	7	11.6	-4.1	Defense struggled, offense wasn't able to take up the slack.
Packers	12	7.8	4.2	Rodgers plays whole season
Texans	9	4.2	4.8	Last year's team was probably not as bad as their record.
Titans	2	7.5	-5.5	Injuries. Also Ken Whisenhunt's resume as a HC is mostly pretty ugly when he doesn't have Kurt Warner as his starting QB.

Comments:

• Four teams over the 4.0 threshold, but unlike last year, none over 5.5. Which gives a final scoring of 18 reasonably close, 10 moderately close, 4 wrong, and 0 "yikes".

• Remember last year when I speculated that the Titans and Jets might have a chance to contend for a playoff spot? Yeah, leave us never speak of that again.

• On a related note, it's been since 94-95 that the Lions have had back-to-back winning seasons, so it's probably advisable to hold off declaring the Lions have turned the corner. If they can come out and contend again in 2015, it'll be a solid sign that 2014 wasn't another fluke season for them like 2011 (and the first half of 2007).

• The Texans rebounded pretty nicely from their 2-14 season, especially considering they started three different guys at quarterback. But I think they're gonna have to find a solid quarterback before they're gonna do much better than 9 wins.

• The Saints have another tough season, but this time they can't blame it on the absence of Sean Payton. Maybe most surprising was 5 home losses for a team that had mostly done very well in the Superdome for many years.

NFL Super Bowl Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Patriots (SRS, Line) vs. Seahawks (APR)

As you know if you read my game picks post, I was leaning towards the Patriots winning this game. But the Seahawks stayed in this, and came a lot closer to winning than I really expected.

Especially with close games like this that are back and forth in the 4th quarter and come down to the last seconds of the game, I feel like I'm picking nits to talk about why one team won and the other lost, but there are a couple things worth looking at.

As mentioned in the power rankings comments, the Seahawks had a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter. If their defense gets one more stop, (or even just holds once for a field goal), they win. Instead they allowed the Patriots two long drives ending with touchdowns that erased their 10 point lead, and left them in a 4 point hole. Giving up two touchdowns was especially painful, because it meant their final drive was touchdown or bust.

The Seahawks offense established that 10 point lead with 5 minutes to play in the third quarter, and they had the ball three times before that final drive. If they score one more touchdown, they win. Instead, they punted three times, and had their final drive end with a turnover.

In the end, I think one of the big problems for the Seahawks was their offense was just too boom-or-bust, too dependent on the big play. In a situation like they had at the end of this game, where they needed a more methodical approach using high percentage plays, they just didn't seem to know how to do it, and it ended up costing them a win.

That's it for the regularly scheduled posts for the 2014 season. I'm planning to do the usual Pythagorean wrap up post, and then that will likely be it until July. Have a good offseason!

Totals

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	0	-	1			7	-	4		63.6%
SRS	1	-	0			9	-	2		81.8%
Line	1	-	0			9	-	2		81.8%

NFL Super Bowl Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Seahawks	1.0996 (LW × 0.9842)	14-5	Lost by 4 vs Patriots
2 (-)	Patriots	1.0942 (LW × 1.0133)	15-4	Won by 4 @ Seahawks
3 (-)	Packers	1.0207 (LW × 0.9985)	13-5	Bye
4 (↑1)	Bills	0.9860 (LW × 1.0013)	9-7	Bye
5 (↓1)	Cowboys	0.9837 (LW × 0.9977)	13-5	Bye
6 (-)	Colts	0.9690 (LW × 1.0009)	13-6	Bye
7 (-)	Broncos	0.9674 (LW × 0.9993)	12-5	Bye
8 (-)	Ravens	0.9649 (LW × 1.0008)	11-7	Bye
9 (-)	Steelers	0.9592 (LW × 0.9992)	11-6	Bye
10 (-)	Chiefs	0.9541 (LW × 0.9968)	9-7	Bye
11 (-)	Eagles	0.9343 (LW × 0.9957)	10-6	Bye
12 (-)	Lions	0.9156 (LW × 0.9999)	11-6	Bye
13 (-)	Texans	0.9042 (LW × 0.9992)	9-7	Bye
14 (-)	Bengals	0.8989 (LW × 0.9993)	10-6-1	Bye
15 (-)	Cardinals	0.8931 (LW × 0.9937)	11-6	Bye
16 (-)	Dolphins	0.8870 (LW × 1.0018)	8-8	Bye
17 (-)	Rams	0.8711 (LW × 0.9945)	6-10	Bye
18 (↑1)	Chargers	0.8701 (LW × 0.9993)	9-7	Bye
19 (↓1)	Panthers	0.8683 (LW × 0.9957)	8-9-1	Bye
20 (-)	Vikings	0.8590 (LW × 0.9994)	7-9	Bye
21 (-)	Jets	0.8501 (LW × 1.0021)	4-12	Bye
22 (-)	Falcons	0.8438 (LW × 0.9976)	6-10	Bye
23 (-)	49ers	0.8384 (LW × 0.9938)	8-8	Bye
24 (-)	Giants	0.8319 (LW × 0.9959)	6-10	Bye
25 (-)	Saints	0.8161 (LW × 0.9980)	7-9	Bye
26 (-)	Browns	0.8113 (LW × 0.9990)	7-9	Bye
27 (-)	Raiders	0.8067 (LW × 0.9967)	3-13	Bye
28 (-)	Bears	0.7755 (LW × 0.9998)	5-11	Bye
29 (-)	Jaguars	0.7599 (LW × 0.9992)	3-13	Bye
30 (-)	Buccaneers	0.7473 (LW × 0.9984)	2-14	Bye
31 (-)	Washington	0.7381 (LW × 0.9968)	4-12	Bye
32 (-)	Titans	0.6819 (LW × 0.9990)	2-14	Bye

Comments:

• Patriots gain in power, but not quite enough to overtake the Seahawks for first place. I'm sure they'll get over it.

• This was only the third Super Bowl to be tied at halftime (along with SB XXIII 49ers vs. Bengals and SB XXXIX Eagles vs. Patriots).

• The 2014 Patriots also join the 2007 Giants and the 2008 Steelers as the only teams to win the Super Bowl after trailing in the 4th quarter.

• The Seahawks lose in possibly the most painful way possible, blowing a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter, and then throwing a game sealing interception on 2nd and goal at the 1 with seconds left to play.

• A lot of people have already said this, but especially with a timeout left, handing off to Lynch is a pretty obvious play call there. Or if you're gonna pass, throw a fade off play action or something. Throwing over the middle like that seems like the worst possible decision there.

• As a football fan, I think this was maybe the most satifying Super Bowl since the Saints beat the Colts in SB XLI (of course I will recuse myself from judging SB XLV).

NFL Super Bowl Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Patriots @ Seahawks	Seahawks* ρ=1.0346	Patriots* δ=2.9	Patriots -1

Comments:

• So a lot of questions for this game. What happened to the Seahawks in the first 57 or so minutes of the NFC Championship Game? A fluke, or something the Patriots can take advantage of? If the Patriots can make the Seahawks look even half that bad in the Super Bowl, the Seahawks are going to find out what it's like to be on the short end of a lop-sided result in this Super Bowl.

• How good is the Seahawks defense, really? My feeling is the Seahawks defense isn't quite as good as their reputation. Since they lost to the Cowboys in week 6, the Seahawks played five games against opponents starting their second or third quarterback. Eight of those games were played against teams that finished in the bottom half of the league when ranked by points scored. The Seahawks did allow the fewest points of any team this year, but it's not like they faced a Murderer's Row of offenses, either. I think the Seahawks defense is overrated, and definitely not as good as they were last year.

• Can the Patriots score on the Seahawks defense? An inability to score on a good defense was the problem for the Patriots in 2007 and 2011. But they have a lot of impressive wins this seasons, including blow out victories over the Bengals, Broncos, Colts (twice), Lions, and Chargers. I don't think the Patriots need to score a lot of points to win this game, as the Seahawks are just 1-4 when their opponent scores 24+ points.

• The last two times the Patriots advanced to the Super Bowl, they lost because they couldn't score on the Giants' defense. If they lose again Sunday, I think the reason will have to be because of the Seahawks' defense.

• Like last year, I think this game will be decided when the Seahawks' defense is facing their opponent's offense. But this time around, I think the Seahawks' offense is weak enough that if their offense does have a slow start, the Patriots won't have to worry about falling into a deep hole by halftime like the Broncos did last year.

NFL Championship Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Packers @ Seahawks (SRS, APR, Line)

It seemed like almost everyhing that went wrong for the Packers this season was on display in this game. They settled for field goals after driving into the red zone. They had ugly break downs on special teams. And (for the Seahawks' last three drives) the defense didn't look like they could stop anything.

Just a really frustrating experience, to be gifted a game where the Seahawks, for 57 minutes of game time, played like they didn't have any business with the top seed in the NFC. And the frustrating thing is, everything the Seahawks needed to go their way happened. If the Packers got a touchdown on either one of their early drives, they win. If the Packers recover the onside kick, they win. If the Packers tip away the two point conversion, they win. If the Packers get a touchdown on their last drive, they win.

But the Seahawks got all those breaks to go their way, and to their credit, they managed to put together three very good drives, all ending with touchdowns, right when they desperately needed needed them, and it won them the game.

Colts @ Patriots (APR, SRS, Line)

This game, on the other hand, went pretty much as expected. Much like in their regular season meeting, the Patriots offense didn't have much trouble scoring repeatedly on the Colts defense.

Somehow Andrew Luck and the Colts managed to keep it to a relatively close 10 point differential at halftime, but an ineffective passing game, and too few attempts at running the ball meant that the Patriots had a pretty easy time scoring three unanswered touchdowns in the third quarter, which put the game well out of reach of the Colts.

Totals

Well, at least a clean sweep for picks this week.

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	2	-	0			7	-	3		70%
SRS	2	-	0			8	-	2		80%
Line	2	-	0			8	-	2		80%

NFL Championship Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Seahawks	1.1173 (LW × 1.0115)	14-4	Won by 6 vs Packers
2 (-)	Patriots	1.0799 (LW × 1.0134)	14-4	Won by 38 vs Colts
3 (-)	Packers	1.0223 (LW × 1.0121)	13-5	Lost by 6 @ Seahawks
4 (↑1)	Cowboys	0.9860 (LW × 0.9987)	13-5	Bye
5 (↑1)	Bills	0.9847 (LW × 1.0035)	9-7	Bye
6 (↓2)	Colts	0.9682 (LW × 0.9782)	13-6	Lost by 38 @ Patriots
7 (-)	Broncos	0.9681 (LW × 0.9989)	12-5	Bye
8 (-)	Ravens	0.9641 (LW × 0.9988)	11-7	Bye
9 (-)	Steelers	0.9600 (LW × 0.9971)	11-6	Bye
10 (-)	Chiefs	0.9571 (LW × 1.0020)	9-7	Bye
11 (-)	Eagles	0.9384 (LW × 1.0005)	10-6	Bye
12 (-)	Lions	0.9156 (LW × 1.0039)	11-6	Bye
13 (-)	Texans	0.9049 (LW × 0.9933)	9-7	Bye
14 (-)	Bengals	0.8996 (LW × 0.9947)	10-6-1	Bye
15 (-)	Cardinals	0.8988 (LW × 1.0035)	11-6	Bye
16 (-)	Dolphins	0.8854 (LW × 1.0026)	8-8	Bye
17 (-)	Rams	0.8759 (LW × 1.0020)	6-10	Bye
18 (-)	Panthers	0.8721 (LW × 1.0022)	8-9-1	Bye
19 (-)	Chargers	0.8707 (LW × 1.0021)	9-7	Bye
20 (-)	Vikings	0.8596 (LW × 1.0031)	7-9	Bye
21 (-)	Jets	0.8483 (LW × 1.0026)	4-12	Bye
22 (-)	Falcons	0.8458 (LW × 1.0015)	6-10	Bye
23 (-)	49ers	0.8436 (LW × 1.0027)	8-8	Bye
24 (-)	Giants	0.8353 (LW × 0.9980)	6-10	Bye
25 (-)	Saints	0.8177 (LW × 1.0006)	7-9	Bye
26 (-)	Browns	0.8121 (LW × 0.9961)	7-9	Bye
27 (-)	Raiders	0.8093 (LW × 1.0017)	3-13	Bye
28 (-)	Bears	0.7756 (LW × 1.0033)	5-11	Bye
29 (-)	Jaguars	0.7605 (LW × 0.9941)	3-13	Bye
30 (-)	Buccaneers	0.7485 (LW × 1.0012)	2-14	Bye
31 (-)	Washington	0.7405 (LW × 0.9977)	4-12	Bye
32 (-)	Titans	0.6826 (LW × 0.9946)	2-14	Bye

Comments:

• As I indicated in the game picks I wasn't expecting the Packers to win this. But perhaps except for a full-on blow out, I'm not sure they could've lost in a more disappointing manner.

• The top 3 remain pretty much the same, the Colts drop out of the top 5 after getting blown out in their game. At least moderately surprisingly, there's no shuffling around in the lower ranks. Usually there's at least a couple teams close enough to switch ranks based on secondary effects.

• Tom Brady will (presumably) start a record sixth Super Bowl (breaking the tie he was in with John Elway, who has five).

• The Seahawks become the first team since the 2003-2004 Patriots to qualify for the Super Bowl in back-to-back seasons.

• A number of teams have back-to-pack wins in the Super Bowl, there are also three that have lost on their return trip: the Cowboys in 1978, the Raiders in 1983, and the Packers in 1997. I'll have more to say in the Super Bowl game picks post, but I think the Seahawks have a chance be the fourth team in that win-loss group.

NFL Championship Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Packers @ Seahawks	Seahawks ρ=1.0935	Seahawks δ=1.0	Seahawks -7
Colts @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.0766	Patriots δ=4.8	Patriots -6½

Comments:

• Like last week, everybody likes the home teams.

• Since some early struggles and a 3-3 start, the Seahawks have finished on a very impressive 9-1 streak. That streak seems a bit less impressive when you notice that 7 of those games were facing offenses in the bottom half of the league (ranked 19th or lower) in points scored. They also played 4 of those games facing teams starting their second or third string quarterbacks (or fourth string, depending on where you want to put Ryan Lindley).

  I feel like the Seahawks are vulnerable to a high scoring team. Their record bears this out, they are 1-4 when their opponent scores 24+ points. On paper, the Packers look look like a team that can take advantage of this weakness.

  The biggest problem with this plan is Aaron Rodgers is hurt, and will almost certainly still be limited for Sunday. Beyond that, the Packers offense has also shown signs of struggling against good defenses, particularly on the road. Two of those games (@ Seahawks and @ Lions) were early in the season, but the third (@ Bills) was just a few weeks ago.

  Another problem for the Packers is their run defense. They've done a lot better since the bye week, but Sunday will be facing the best QB-RB rushing duo in the league. The Cowboys ran for 145 yards last week, and it seems almost certain the Seahawks will be able to surpass that. Maybe the Packers have a chance if they can score early and often, and keep it a game where the Seahawks will feel like they need to pass a lot to stay in it. But I think this is gonna be closer to the season opener, where the Packers kept it close for a while, but the Seahawks pull away in the second half.

• Last week, Andrew Luck and the Colts took a big first step in shaking off their "can't win on the road against good teams" reputation, holding the Broncos to a near-season low of just 13 points, and scoring 24 on a defense that had held opponents to 21 or lower in 10 games. If the Colts can go into Foxborough and beat the Patriots, it will represent an extrordinary sweep of two of the highest regarded quarterbacks in the league, going back 15 years, and go along way to justifying Luck's place at that same level.

  That said, I think this is going to be the end of the line for this year's Colts. They are 0-5 when allowing more than 28 points this season, and the Patriots have reached that mark 9 times this season (including last week's victory over the Ravens). The Patriots are also 11-0 when they score at least 23 points (again counting last week). Unless Tom Brady is hurt too, I don't think the Colts' defense has what it takes to slow down the Patriots enough to keep them in this game.

NFL Divisional Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Ravens @ Patriots (SRS, APR, Line)

The Ravens' offense certainly did their part in this game, putting up 31 points on the Patriots. But the Ravens' defense allowed the Patriots five sustained drives (the shortest was 67 yards), all ending with touchdowns.

Joe Flacco may actually be maturing into a better quarterback than he was in the first years of his career, but when it takes 36 points to win a game, even the best quarterbacks can be in a toss-up situation.

Panthers @ Seahawks (APR, SRS, Line)

The Seahawks won this pretty easily, as they were widely expected to. Maybe the most surprising thing about this game is that the Panthers kept it within a single score into the 4th quarter, and if Cam Newton had played a better game, the Panthers might have had a chance for an upset.

Cowboys @ Packers (APR, SRS, Line)

After their initial touchdown drive, the Packers really seemed to struggle in this game, producing drives that ended in a lost fumble, two punts, and two field goals. I really thought this game was all but over when the Cowboys went up 21-13 late in the 3rd quarter.

But after that, the Packers' offense finally got on a roll, posting a couple of long touchdown drives, and a final drive to finish off the final 4:06 of game clock.

The Cowboys seemed to pursue a ball control strategy similar to what the Bills did in their win over the Packers in week 15. The problem with this strategy is it requires a defense that can shut the Packers offense down for an entire game, and (as the Cowboys found out) blows up if you can't.

It should also be noted that the Dez Bryant catch reversal controversy obscured a rather unfortunate play call by the Cowboys. That play came on 4th and 2. The Cowboys elected to throw what has to be a pretty low percentage deep ball 30 yards down field. But why do that when they could've handed off to DeMarco Murray? Murray had been shredding the Packers' defense all game, and would've almost certainly resulted in a conversion and a fresh set of downs.

Colts @ Broncos (APR, SRS, Line)

Just an ugly day for the Broncos' passing offense. One of the lowest completion rates (57%) and yards per attempt (4.58) since Manning went to Denver.

The Broncos' defense didn't have a good day either, giving up several long drives, and largely letting the Colts offense control the tempo of the game. The Broncos just didn't look anything like the team that won the AFC's second seed.

Added: It's now being reported that Peyton Manning was playing with a torn quad, which would explain a lot about how this game played out.

Totals

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	3	-	1			5	-	3		62.5%
SRS	3	-	1			6	-	2		75%
Line	3	-	1			6	-	2		75%

NFL Divisional Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Seahawks	1.1046 (LW × 1.0268)	13-4	Won by 14 vs Panthers
2 (-)	Patriots	1.0656 (LW × 0.9942)	13-4	Won by 4 vs Ravens
3 (↑1)	Packers	1.0101 (LW × 1.0167)	13-4	Won by 5 vs Cowboys
4 (↑5)	Colts	0.9898 (LW × 1.0476)	13-5	Won by 11 @ Broncos
5 (↑1)	Cowboys	0.9873 (LW × 1.0295)	13-5	Lost by 5 @ Packers
6 (↓1)	Bills	0.9813 (LW × 0.9981)	9-7	Bye
7 (↓4)	Broncos	0.9692 (LW × 0.9685)	12-5	Lost by 11 vs Colts
8 (↑2)	Ravens	0.9652 (LW × 1.0242)	11-7	Lost by 4 @ Patriots
9 (↓1)	Steelers	0.9628 (LW × 1.0133)	11-6	Bye
10 (↓3)	Chiefs	0.9552 (LW × 0.9994)	9-7	Bye
11 (-)	Eagles	0.9379 (LW × 1.0200)	10-6	Bye
12 (-)	Lions	0.9121 (LW × 1.0098)	11-6	Bye
13 (↑1)	Texans	0.9111 (LW × 1.0204)	9-7	Bye
14 (↓1)	Bengals	0.9043 (LW × 1.0126)	10-6-1	Bye
15 (-)	Cardinals	0.8956 (LW × 1.0129)	11-6	Bye
16 (-)	Dolphins	0.8831 (LW × 1.0000)	8-8	Bye
17 (↑1)	Rams	0.8741 (LW × 1.0059)	6-10	Bye
18 (↑2)	Panthers	0.8702 (LW × 1.0252)	8-9-1	Lost by 14 @ Seahawks
19 (↓2)	Chargers	0.8689 (LW × 0.9962)	9-7	Bye
20 (↓1)	Vikings	0.8569 (LW × 1.0090)	7-9	Bye
21 (-)	Jets	0.8462 (LW × 1.0006)	4-12	Bye
22 (↑1)	Falcons	0.8446 (LW × 1.0149)	6-10	Bye
23 (↓1)	49ers	0.8413 (LW × 1.0090)	8-8	Bye
24 (-)	Giants	0.8369 (LW × 1.0188)	6-10	Bye
25 (↑1)	Saints	0.8172 (LW × 1.0143)	7-9	Bye
26 (↑1)	Browns	0.8153 (LW × 1.0162)	7-9	Bye
27 (↓2)	Raiders	0.8079 (LW × 0.9961)	3-13	Bye
28 (-)	Bears	0.7731 (LW × 1.0104)	5-11	Bye
29 (-)	Jaguars	0.7650 (LW × 1.0197)	3-13	Bye
30 (-)	Buccaneers	0.7476 (LW × 1.0134)	2-14	Bye
31 (-)	Washington	0.7422 (LW × 1.0183)	4-12	Bye
32 (-)	Titans	0.6863 (LW × 1.0186)	2-14	Bye

Comments:

• Congratulations to the Seahawks, who become the first defending Super Bowl champion to win a playoff game the following season since the Patriots did it in 2005.

• If the Broncos had also won, it would've been the first time since 2004 that all four home teams had won in the Divisional round, and the first time since 1997 that both Super Bowl teams won a playoff game the following season. As it is, these will have to wait for another season.

• So a couple of things about that overturned catch at the end of the Cowboys-Packers game:

  1. I'm not a big fan of the going-to-the-ground rule, but

  2. By the going-to-the-ground rule, that was not a catch. If you watch the replay, Bryant bobbles the ball when he hits the ground (before rolling over into the endzone). It's a near-textbook example of a non-catch according to this rule.

• Nice to see the final four teams in the top four of the rankings. I think I'd probably rank them in that order, too.

NFL Divisional Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Panthers @ Seahawks	Seahawks ρ=1.2672	Seahawks δ=11.5	Seahawks -10½
Ravens @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.1373	Patriots δ=5.7	Patriots -7
Colts @ Broncos	Broncos ρ=1.0592	Broncos δ=4.3	Broncos -7
Cowboys @ Packers	Packers* ρ=1.0360	Packers δ=3.0	Packers -6½

Comments:

• The Panthers played the Seahawks close in the regular season, but that was early on, and played in Charlotte. The Panthers are gonna have to play a lot better than they did last week, or this game is going to be over by halftime.

  I actually think the Seahawks are maybe not as good as their record indicates, and shouldn't be such a lock to repeat in the Super Bowl (I'll have more to say about that next week). But unless Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, and half their defense can't play Saturday, I just don't see the Panthers coming away with the upset.

• The Ravens have only beat the Patriots three times, but two of those victories have come in the playoffs. If they're going to get a fourth win this weekend, I think the Ravens will have to play better defense than they did against the Steelers.

  One factor that may play into this is the status of Julian Edelman, who is currently listed as questionable probable for the game. If he can't play, or is limited, the Ravens will be able to focus a lot more on Rob Gronkowsky, the Pats' other big threat on offense.

• The Colts and Broncos will play a rematch of their week 1 meeting this week. As I've mentioned before, the Colts have not played well on the road against good teams, and unless the Broncos just faceplant this game, the Colts will have another Divisional round exit in the playoffs.

• Unless you've been living under a rock this week, you already know Cowboys @ Packers is the first time these teams have met in the playoffs at Lambeau since the Ice Bowl game. Besides all the other differences between then and now, Sunday's weather is expected to feature a relatively warm high of 20F.

  As for the game, well, I learned from the 2011 playoffs not to take anything for granted. But the Cowboys played a relatively sloppy game last week, with a slow start, some noticeably errant throws by Romo, and a lot of yards given up on defense.

  Assuming Aaron Rodgers stays healthy and plays the whole game, and the offense gets on a roll, the Cowboys will have a very tough time of it.

NFL Wild Card Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Panthers (Line)

What an awful performance by Ryan Lindley. I don't think I've seen a worse performance by a quarterback in the playoffs. Even Joe Webb a couple years ago had a better game.

The Panthers played like you'd expect a 7-9-1 team to play: some ugly turnovers, a lot of drives that ended without a score, and a general failure to put away a weak opponent until late in the game.

Ravens (SRS) @ Steelers (APR, Line)

I wrote in the game picks that the Ravens could make a run if their defense got on a roll. They certainly took the first step in this game, holding the Steelers to just three field goals and a touchdown, and forcing three turnovers at the end of the game.

Steelers put up a lot of yards on the Ravens' defense, but too many of their drives ended in field goals, punts, and turnovers. They were playing catch up on the score board for most of the game, and the Ravens were able to pull away in the second half.

Bengals @ Colts (APR, SRS, Line)

The least surprising of this week's games. Without their two biggest playmakers on offense (AJ Green and Jermain Gresham) the Bengals were in deep trouble when the game started. Perhaps the biggest surprise was that they kept the game close through halftime.

Lions @ Cowboys (APR, SRS, Line)

That was probably the ugliest job of officiating since the Fail Mary game. The Lions really got a bad deal there. But they also played a pretty poor second half, managing just one field goal from 6 possessions, and leaving the door open for a bad call to decide the game for them. (It should also be noted a DPI call would not have won the game for them, it just would've helped keep their drive going.)

The Cowboys, for their part, didn't look great either. They only managed to score 14 points through three quarters, Romo was sacked 6 times, and a lot of his passes looked poorly thrown and off target. The offense may get most of the attention, but the defense holding the Lions to just a field goal in the second half was a key factor in giving them the chance to win this game.

Totals

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	2	-	2			2	-	2		50%
SRS	3	-	1			3	-	1		75%
Line	3	-	1			3	-	1		75%

NFL Wildcard Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Seahawks	1.0757 (LW × 0.9876)	12-4	Bye
2 (-)	Patriots	1.0718 (LW × 1.0014)	12-4	Bye
3 (-)	Broncos	1.0007 (LW × 0.9926)	12-4	Bye
4 (-)	Packers	0.9935 (LW × 1.0047)	12-4	Bye
5 (-)	Bills	0.9831 (LW × 0.9988)	9-7	Bye
6 (↑2)	Cowboys	0.9590 (LW × 1.0119)	13-4	Won by 4 vs Lions
7 (-)	Chiefs	0.9558 (LW × 0.9868)	9-7	Bye
8 (↓2)	Steelers	0.9502 (LW × 0.9705)	11-6	Lost by 13 vs Ravens
9 (↑1)	Colts	0.9448 (LW × 1.0249)	12-5	Won by 16 vs Bengals
10 (↑3)	Ravens	0.9424 (LW × 1.0359)	11-6	Won by 13 @ Steelers
11 (-)	Eagles	0.9195 (LW × 1.0043)	10-6	Bye
12 (↑2)	Lions	0.9032 (LW × 0.9989)	11-6	Lost by 4 @ Cowboys
13 (↓1)	Bengals	0.8931 (LW × 0.9801)	10-6-1	Lost by 16 @ Colts
14 (↑1)	Texans	0.8929 (LW × 1.0077)	9-7	Bye
15 (↓6)	Cardinals	0.8843 (LW × 0.9566)	11-6	Lost by 11 @ Panthers
16 (↑1)	Dolphins	0.8831 (LW × 1.0034)	8-8	Bye
17 (↑1)	Chargers	0.8723 (LW × 0.9973)	9-7	Bye
18 (↓2)	Rams	0.8690 (LW × 0.9872)	6-10	Bye
19 (↑1)	Vikings	0.8492 (LW × 1.0062)	7-9	Bye
20 (↑5)	Panthers	0.8489 (LW × 1.0406)	8-8-1	Won by 11 vs Cardinals
21 (↓2)	Jets	0.8456 (LW × 0.9977)	4-12	Bye
22 (↓1)	49ers	0.8338 (LW × 0.9904)	8-8	Bye
23 (↓1)	Falcons	0.8322 (LW × 1.0042)	6-10	Bye
24 (↓1)	Giants	0.8215 (LW × 1.0024)	6-10	Bye
25 (↓1)	Raiders	0.8110 (LW × 0.9913)	3-13	Bye
26 (-)	Saints	0.8057 (LW × 1.0064)	7-9	Bye
27 (-)	Browns	0.8023 (LW × 1.0078)	7-9	Bye
28 (-)	Bears	0.7651 (LW × 1.0048)	5-11	Bye
29 (-)	Jaguars	0.7503 (LW × 1.0086)	3-13	Bye
30 (-)	Buccaneers	0.7377 (LW × 1.0059)	2-14	Bye
31 (-)	Washington	0.7289 (LW × 1.0029)	4-12	Bye
32 (-)	Titans	0.6738 (LW × 1.0059)	2-14	Bye

Comments:

• And both the Bengals' and Lions' winless streak in the playoffs will extend another year. The Lions at least showed some signs of life in their game.

• Some shuffling around in the rankings, but the top 5 remain the same. And while the streak has been interrupted, the APR tradition of the lowest ranked playoff team winning a game in the playoffs continues as the Panthers advance.

• I'm not sure there's anybody in the league the Cardinals could beat with Ryan Lindley as their quarterback. Still, I suppose those 11 wins count for something. If Carson Palmer comes back okay, and stays healthy for the whole season, they should have a chance to do something next year.

• Meanwhile, one of the Cardinals' first orders of business should be to cut Ryan Lindley. I think he's at the "what you see is what you get" point in his career, which mean he's not obviously better than some random guy pulled out of the stands.

NFL Wild Card Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Cardinals @ Panthers	Cardinals ρ=1.1332	Cardinals* δ=5.0	Panthers -6
Ravens @ Steelers	Steelers ρ=1.0762	Ravens* δ=2.4	Steelers -3
Lions @ Cowboys	Cowboys* ρ=1.0480	Cowboys δ=3.3	Cowboys -7½
Bengals @ Colts	Colts* ρ=1.0116	Colts δ=3.7	Colts -3½

Comments:

• We could (theoretically) see the two longest active streaks without a playoff win end this week. The Bengals (1990) and Lions (1991) are the two active franchises that have gone the longest without a playoff win.

  By comparison, the next longest streak among teams in the playoffs belongs to the Panthers, who last won a playoff game in 2005.

• Ryan Lindley actually looked... well, just bad against the 49ers last week (as opposed to looking completely awful against the Seahawks). If he can avoid turnovers, the Cardinals will have a chance.

  On the other hand, the Panthers are riding a 4-game winning streak thanks largely to their defense, and if they keep that up, the Panthers will have their first playoff win in 9 years.

• The Ravens' offense has actually been pretty good this year, with Joe Flacco rather quietly having one of the best seasons of his career, throwing 27 touchdowns to only 12 interceptions. If the Ravens' defense can get on a roll, they could actually make a run in the playoffs.

• On the other hand, the Ravens put up that ugly loss to the Texans just a couple weeks ago, gave up 34 points to the Chargers in late November and 43 points to the Steelers in early November. So if the offense or defense falters, they'll very likely be done in short order.

• I must've linked this before, but it bears repeating. The Lions haven't beat a team with a winning record on the road since 2010. Of course a lot of things have gone into that streak over the seasons. One of the Lions' big problems this year has been a lack of productions on offense. In four of their losses they haven't scored more than 14 points.

  They will almost certainly have to do better than that against the Cowboys, whose losses have mostly come when their opponents have scored at least 28 points.

• The Bengals-Colts game is a rematch of a game that was one of the Bengals' ugliest losses of the season, a 27-0 shutout in week 7. And while the Colts are another team that haven't done well on the road against good teams, they've been very good at home this year, losing only to the Eagles and Patriots.

  Especially with AJ Green and Jermaine Gresham hurt, I think the Bengals just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Colts, so unless the Colts just faceplant this game, the Bengals playoff drought is going to last another year.

NFL Week 17 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (11-3)

Right:

Colts @ Titans
Cowboys @ Washington
Saints @ Buccaneers
Raiders @ Broncos
Jaguars @ Texans
Rams @ Seahawks
Browns @ Ravens
Bears @ Vikings
Chargers @ Chiefs
Lions @ Packers
Bengals @ Steelers

Wrong:

Bills @ Patriots

The Pats mostly rested their starters in this game (although for reasons unexplained Tom Brady played in the first half). The Bills clinch their first winning season since 2004, when Drew Bledsoe played his last season for them.

Jets @ Dolphins

Geno Smith had the best game of his career, throwing three touchdown passes and catching the Dolphins on a very bad day defensively. The Dolphins were 1-7 when giving up more than 20 points this season.

Panthers @ Falcons

The Falcons just couldn't get anything going on offense in this game. Their longest drive until well into garbage time was 38 yards. That, along with a couple interceptions (both returned for touchdowns) dug a hole the Falcons had no way out of.

Split Picks: (APR 1-1, SRS 1-1, Line 1-1)

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)

The Cardinals surprisingly made a game of this, but Lindley's 3 interceptions was just more than the Cardinals were able to overcome.

Eagles (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)

Actually a relatively close game (and equal on turnovers). But Eli Manning threw incomplete too many times, the Giants only converted on 1 of 3 trips in the red zone, had 106 penalty yards, and in the end, it all added up to a loss for Big Blue.

Totals

A nice round of picks to end the regular season on.

	This Week					This Season					%
APR	12	-	4			159	-	80	-	1	66.5%
SRS	12	-	4			157	-	82	-	1	65.6%
Line	12	-	4			166	-	72	-	1	69.8%

NFL Week 17 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑1)	Seahawks	1.0892 (LW × 1.0214)	12-4	Won by 14 vs Rams
2 (↓1)	Patriots	1.0703 (LW × 0.9572)	12-4	Lost by 8 vs Bills
3 (-)	Broncos	1.0081 (LW × 0.9978)	12-4	Won by 33 vs Raiders
4 (-)	Packers	0.9889 (LW × 1.0090)	12-4	Won by 10 vs Lions
5 (↑4)	Bills	0.9843 (LW × 1.0490)	9-7	Won by 8 @ Patriots
6 (-)	Steelers	0.9790 (LW × 1.0178)	11-5	Won by 10 vs Bengals
7 (↓2)	Chiefs	0.9686 (LW × 1.0044)	9-7	Won by 12 vs Chargers
8 (-)	Cowboys	0.9476 (LW × 1.0086)	12-4	Won by 27 @ Washington
9 (↓2)	Cardinals	0.9244 (LW × 0.9718)	11-5	Lost by 3 @ 49ers
10 (↑1)	Colts	0.9218 (LW × 0.9904)	11-5	Won by 17 @ Titans
11 (↑4)	Eagles	0.9155 (LW × 1.0129)	10-6	Won by 8 @ Giants
12 (↑2)	Bengals	0.9112 (LW × 0.9996)	10-5-1	Lost by 10 @ Steelers
13 (-)	Ravens	0.9097 (LW × 0.9925)	10-6	Won by 10 vs Browns
14 (↓4)	Lions	0.9042 (LW × 0.9712)	11-5	Lost by 10 @ Packers
15 (↑1)	Texans	0.8860 (LW × 0.9903)	9-7	Won by 6 vs Jaguars
16 (↑1)	Rams	0.8802 (LW × 0.9852)	6-10	Lost by 14 @ Seahawks
17 (↓5)	Dolphins	0.8801 (LW × 0.9531)	8-8	Lost by 13 vs Jets
18 (-)	Chargers	0.8746 (LW × 0.9825)	9-7	Lost by 12 @ Chiefs
19 (↑5)	Jets	0.8475 (LW × 1.0428)	4-12	Won by 13 @ Dolphins
20 (-)	Vikings	0.8440 (LW × 1.0015)	7-9	Won by 4 vs Bears
21 (-)	49ers	0.8419 (LW × 1.0065)	8-8	Won by 3 vs Cardinals
22 (↓3)	Falcons	0.8287 (LW × 0.9648)	6-10	Lost by 31 vs Panthers
23 (↓1)	Giants	0.8195 (LW × 0.9848)	6-10	Lost by 8 vs Eagles
24 (↓1)	Raiders	0.8182 (LW × 0.9995)	3-13	Lost by 33 @ Broncos
25 (↑2)	Panthers	0.8157 (LW × 1.0466)	7-8-1	Won by 31 @ Falcons
26 (↓1)	Saints	0.8005 (LW × 0.9993)	7-9	Won by 3 @ Buccaneers
27 (↓1)	Browns	0.7961 (LW × 0.9940)	7-9	Lost by 10 @ Ravens
28 (-)	Bears	0.7615 (LW × 0.9876)	5-11	Lost by 4 @ Vikings
29 (↑2)	Jaguars	0.7439 (LW × 1.0092)	3-13	Lost by 6 @ Texans
30 (-)	Buccaneers	0.7334 (LW × 0.9869)	2-14	Lost by 3 vs Saints
31 (↓2)	Washington	0.7268 (LW × 0.9720)	4-12	Lost by 27 vs Cowboys
32 (-)	Titans	0.6698 (LW × 0.9896)	2-14	Lost by 17 vs Colts

Comments:

• The top seeds for both conferences occupy the top four spots in the rankings.

• Bills are the highest ranked team out of the playoffs, thanks in part to a 4-spot bump on beating the nothing-to-play-for Patriots.

• On the one hand, I feel like #6 is to high for a Steelers team with ugly losses to the Bucs, Jets, and Saints. On the other hand, pretty much everyone below them has at least a couple ugly losses on their record, so I can't really make the case that they should be ranked lower either.

  Maybe the real observation is that after the top four teams, there's a pretty steep drop off in quality.

• Unsurprisingly, the 7-8-1 Panthers are the lowest-ranked playoff team. Of the rest, the Lions are lowest ranked at #14, perhaps thanks some close wins over the Bucs and Vikings, followed with a road loss to the Packers.

• Could the Panthers actually get on a run in the playoffs? After a streak of games where they were 1-8-1 from mid September to late November, they've run off a series of 4 wins. Not exaclty against the class of the league, but still better than anyone else in the NFC South can claim.

• The Seahawks clinch the #1 seed in the NFC for the second season in a row, the first time it's done back-to-back since the Eagles did it three times, 2002-2004. They certainly seem to be in a good position to be the first defending Super Bowl champion to win a playoff game the following season since the Patriots did it in 2005.

NFL Week 17 Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Colts @ Titans	Colts ρ=1.3751	Colts* δ=16.3	Colts -7
Cowboys @ Washington	Cowboys ρ=1.2567	Cowboys* δ=12.5	Cowboys -6½
Raiders @ Broncos	Broncos ρ=1.2343	Broncos δ=16.8	Broncos -16
Jaguars @ Texans	Texans ρ=1.2139	Texans δ=12.9	Texans -9½
Rams @ Seahawks	Seahawks ρ=1.1936	Seahawks δ=9.7	Seahawks -13
Bills @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.1917	Patriots δ=7.8	Patriots -3½
Browns @ Ravens	Ravens ρ=1.1445	Ravens δ=8.4	Ravens -8½
Cardinals @ 49ers	Cardinals ρ=1.1372	Cardinals* δ=3.8	49ers -6
Jets @ Dolphins	Dolphins ρ=1.1361	Dolphins δ=10.2	Dolphins -5½
Panthers @ Falcons	Falcons* ρ=1.1021	Falcons δ=3.1	Falcons -3½
Bears @ Vikings	Vikings ρ=1.0931	Vikings δ=5.3	Vikings -6½
Eagles @ Giants	Eagles ρ=1.0861	Eagles* δ=5.1	Giants -3
Chargers @ Chiefs	Chiefs ρ=1.0832	Chiefs δ=2.7	Chiefs -2½
Saints @ Buccaneers	Saints ρ=1.0780	Saints* δ=7.2	Saints -4
Bengals @ Steelers	Steelers* ρ=1.0552	Steelers δ=0.3	Steelers -3
Lions @ Packers	Packers ρ=1.0525	Packers δ=5.7	Packers -7½

Comments:

• A surprising amount of agreement for week 17. But most teams have something to play for, only the Patriots and Colts have clinched their respective seeds. Barring some unlikely scenarios, the Cowboys will have the 3 seed in the NFC, and may choose to rest their starters in anticipation of playing on Wild Card weekend.

• The Lions' center Dominic Raiola has been suspended for a game, so barring a last-minute stay won't play on Sunday. That's bad news for the Lions, especially if the Packers' pass rush can continue where they left off last week.

• The Cardinals will reportedly start Logan Thomas as quarterback which... well, it can't be as bad as Ryan Lindley, right? Thomas didn't look like much in relief of Drew Stanton back in week 5, but the 49ers are not as good as the Broncos, and this time Thomas will have a week of practice time to get ready.

• I'm trying to decide if the Line is right to pick the Giants this week. The Eagles really fell apart last week against an opponent they should've beaten with ease, now they're facing another opponent they really should be able to beat. I think it's probably gonna go like last week: whoever wins the turnover battle wins the game.

• If the Panthers are going to have a chance this week, their defense is gonna have to slow down Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Steven Jackson. The Falcons should win easily if this game is a battle of who can score the most points on the others bad defense.

NFL Week 16 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (6-6)

Right:

Patriots @ Jets
Packers @ Buccaneers
Lions @ Bears
Seahawks @ Cardinals
Titans @ Jaguars
Vikings @ Dolphins

Wrong:

Falcons @ Saints

Somehow, the Saints just couldn't move the ball against what has been a pretty bad Falcons defense. The Saints had three drives longer than 31 yards, two of which ended with a lost fumble.

Giants @ Rams

Odell Beckham is an amazing player, and when the Giants' don't turn the ball over, they can still be a dangerous team. This is the first time since the final week of the 2012 season that the Giants' haven't turned the ball over.

Bills @ Raiders

Trap game? Let down? Whatever you call it, a week after holding the Packers to just 13 points, the Bills defense gave up 26 points to the Raiders who have scored more than that just once this season. Meanwhile the Bills could only rush for a season-low 13 yards, and Kyle Orton is just not the kind of quarterback that can win without support from his defense and running game, even against the likes of the Raiders.

Eagles @ Washington

I'm not sure there's anything to say here besides what I noted in the power rankings, that the Eagles have mostly lost when they don't score at least 30 points. Counting this game, Washington has only made it to 27 points four times this season.

Ravens @ Texans

The Texans defense came to play in this game, holding the Ravens to 33 yards rushing, intercepting Joe Flacco 3 times, and holding him under 200 yards passing on 50(!) attempts. When the Texans' defense plays like that, Case Keenum is all they need for a quarterback.

Broncos @ Bengals

Besides Peyton Manning's struggles, the Broncos defense gave up 207 yards rushing (mostly to Jeremy Hill) and 206 kick and punt return yards. Andy Dalton didn't look like much in this game, but with that kind of support, he didn't need to.

Split Picks: (APR 1-3, SRS 1-3, Line 3-1)

Chargers (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)

Either way this game went, you could blame turnovers and breakdowns on defense. As much as anything, the 49ers' season-long inability to score in the second half opened the door for the Chargers to come back and win this game.

Chiefs (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)

The Steelers' defense had perhaps their best game of the season, holding the Chiefs to just 12 points. The Chiefs, for their part, persued an odd strategy of settling for field goals in spite of the fact they were playing from behind for most of the game. As I've noted before, the Chiefs don't have a quick strike defense, so especially when they're playing behind, they really need to get touchdowns to have a chance.

Browns (APR, SRS) @ Panthers (Line)

Johnny Manziel looked every bit the green rookie in this game. When Brian Hoyer came in in relief, the Browns were down a touchdown. He was better than Manziel, but not by nearly enough, especially with only 84 rushing yards in support (and 19 of them coming from Hoyer himself).

Colts (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)

If there's anything that went right for the Colts in this game, I didn't see it. Their first have drives result in a turnover on downs, three punts, and a red zone interception. Meanwhile, the Cowboys scored touchdowns on their first four possessions, and the game was pretty much out of reach by halftime.

Totals

A real clunker of a week, especially for the algorithms.

	This Week					This Season					%
APR	7	-	9			147	-	76	-	1	65.9%
SRS	7	-	9			145	-	78	-	1	65.0%
Line	9	-	7			154	-	68	-	1	69.4%

NFL Week 16 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Patriots	1.1182 (LW × 0.9758)	12-3	Won by 1 @ Jets
2 (↑1)	Seahawks	1.0664 (LW × 1.0366)	11-4	Won by 29 @ Cardinals
3 (↓1)	Broncos	1.0103 (LW × 0.9447)	11-4	Lost by 9 @ Bengals
4 (↑2)	Packers	0.9800 (LW × 1.0051)	11-4	Won by 17 @ Buccaneers
5 (↓1)	Chiefs	0.9643 (LW × 0.9603)	8-7	Lost by 8 @ Steelers
6 (↑7)	Steelers	0.9620 (LW × 1.0389)	10-5	Won by 8 vs Chiefs
7 (↓2)	Cardinals	0.9512 (LW × 0.9590)	11-4	Lost by 29 vs Seahawks
8 (↑7)	Cowboys	0.9396 (LW × 1.0354)	11-4	Won by 35 vs Colts
9 (↓2)	Bills	0.9383 (LW × 0.9752)	8-7	Lost by 2 @ Raiders
10 (-)	Lions	0.9311 (LW × 0.9872)	11-4	Won by 6 @ Bears
11 (↓3)	Colts	0.9307 (LW × 0.9813)	10-5	Lost by 35 @ Cowboys
12 (↓3)	Dolphins	0.9234 (LW × 0.9782)	8-7	Won by 2 vs Vikings
13 (↓1)	Ravens	0.9166 (LW × 0.9821)	9-6	Lost by 12 @ Texans
14 (↑3)	Bengals	0.9116 (LW × 1.0443)	10-4-1	Won by 9 vs Broncos
15 (↓1)	Eagles	0.9038 (LW × 0.9827)	9-6	Lost by 3 @ Washington
16 (↑2)	Texans	0.8947 (LW × 1.0344)	8-7	Won by 12 vs Ravens
17 (↓6)	Rams	0.8934 (LW × 0.9539)	6-9	Lost by 9 vs Giants
18 (↓2)	Chargers	0.8902 (LW × 0.9819)	9-6	Won by 3 @ 49ers
19 (↑3)	Falcons	0.8590 (LW × 1.0538)	6-9	Won by 16 @ Saints
20 (↑1)	Vikings	0.8428 (LW × 1.0143)	6-9	Lost by 2 @ Dolphins
21 (↓2)	49ers	0.8365 (LW × 0.9766)	7-8	Lost by 3 vs Chargers
22 (↑4)	Giants	0.8322 (LW × 1.0550)	6-9	Won by 9 @ Rams
23 (-)	Raiders	0.8185 (LW × 1.0073)	3-12	Won by 2 vs Bills
24 (-)	Jets	0.8127 (LW × 1.0152)	3-12	Lost by 1 vs Patriots
25 (↓5)	Saints	0.8011 (LW × 0.9587)	6-9	Lost by 16 vs Falcons
26 (↓1)	Browns	0.8009 (LW × 1.0026)	7-8	Lost by 4 @ Panthers
27 (↑1)	Panthers	0.7794 (LW × 1.0105)	6-8-1	Won by 4 vs Browns
28 (↓1)	Bears	0.7710 (LW × 0.9946)	5-10	Lost by 6 vs Lions
29 (↑1)	Washington	0.7477 (LW × 1.0258)	4-11	Won by 3 vs Eagles
30 (↓1)	Buccaneers	0.7431 (LW × 0.9974)	2-13	Lost by 17 vs Packers
31 (-)	Jaguars	0.7371 (LW × 1.0256)	3-12	Won by 8 vs Titans
32 (-)	Titans	0.6769 (LW × 1.0061)	2-13	Lost by 8 @ Jaguars

Comments:

• This season, the Eagles are 1-6 when they don't score at least 30 points. Which doesn't say a lot for their defense.

• How good is the Packers defense? They had that ugly second half breakdown against the Falcons a couple weeks ago, but they also held the Buccaneers (yeah, I know, they're 2-13) to season lows on points scored, first downs, and yards from scrimmage. They also sacked Josh McCown 7 times, most all year.

• Remember how I said in the game picks that the Colts were bad on the road against good teams? Yeah, that. The Colts had 1 rushing yard on Sunday. One.

• That was a really ugly game for Peyton Manning Monday night. He hasn't had a 4 interception outing since 2010.

• The Saints have lost 5 home games for the first time since 2007, Payton and Brees's second season with the team.

• With the Bills' elimination from the playoffs this week, their streak of longest active playoff appearance drought will continue for at least another year. The Music City Miracle game remains the Bills' last playoff appearance.

NFL Week 16 Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Patriots @ Jets	Patriots ρ=1.4314	Patriots* δ=20.6	Patriots -10
Packers @ Buccaneers	Packers ρ=1.3085	Packers* δ=18.4	Packers -10
Eagles @ Washington	Eagles ρ=1.2619	Eagles* δ=13.4	Eagles -7½
Broncos @ Bengals	Broncos ρ=1.2250	Broncos* δ=10.2	Broncos -3
Lions @ Bears	Lions ρ=1.2168	Lions* δ=9.8	Lions -7
Giants @ Rams	Rams ρ=1.1874	Rams δ=2.9	Rams -5
Bills @ Raiders	Bills ρ=1.1841	Bills* δ=14.0	Bills -6
Vikings @ Dolphins	Dolphins ρ=1.1360	Dolphins δ=6.4	Dolphins -6½
Chiefs @ Steelers	Chiefs* ρ=1.0845	Chiefs* δ=5.6	Steelers -3
Ravens @ Texans	Ravens ρ=1.0791	Ravens* δ=4.6	Ravens -5
Titans @ Jaguars	Jaguars ρ=1.0683	Jaguars δ=0.5	Jaguars -3
Chargers @ 49ers	Chargers ρ=1.0585	Chargers* δ=4.5	49ers -2
Colts @ Cowboys	Colts ρ=1.0452	Colts* δ=4.9	Cowboys -2½
Seahawks @ Cardinals	Seahawks* ρ=1.0372	Seahawks* δ=3.7	Seahawks -8
Browns @ Panthers	Browns ρ=1.0356	Browns* δ=2.0	Panthers -2½
Falcons @ Saints	Saints* ρ=1.0251	Saints δ=1.0	Saints -5½

Comments:

• No line for Browns @ Panthers. Maybe waiting to see if Cam Newton will play? I'll update later on in the week. Update: done.

• A lot of the games this week have playoff implications. Then there's Titans @ Jaguars which... has draft implications.

• Seahawks @ Cardinals is for the NFC West, and probably the top seed in the NFC. The Cardinals are reduced to starting erstwhile 3rd string backup Ryan Lindley. If the Cardinals' defense can hold their opponent to 6 points again, they'll have a chance. But I think if the Seahawks get 14 points on the board, that could be game over for the Cards.

• With the Texans reduced to starting either fourth year backup Thad Lewis or off-the-street pickup Case Keenum, I'm a little surprised the Ravens are only getting 5 points in this game. The Ravens have quietly put together one of the highest scoring offenses in the league this season, and this has the feel of a game where the Ravens may only need a couple touchdowns to secure a 5 point margin of victory.

• I'm not really sure why the Line is taking the 49ers here. They're out of the playoffs, they're riddled with injuries, and coming off a string of bitter losses. Meanwhile, the Chargers are still alive for one of the AFC wildcard spots, and desperately need a win to stay in the race. I think unless the Chargers fall flat on their faces, this is a game they should win.

• I'm tempted to say the Colts have a real chance for an upset at the Cowboys, except for that whole Colts usually lose big on the road against good opponents thing that seemed to start when Andrew Luck came to town. But DeMarco Murray will either be out or playing hurt, so the Cowboys won't be at their full strength, either.

NFL Week 15 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (12-2)

Right:

Steelers @ Falcons
Bengals @ Browns
Broncos @ Chargers
Jets @ Titans
Jaguars @ Ravens
Raiders @ Chiefs
Dolphins @ Patriots
Texans @ Colts
Washington @ Giants
Buccaneers @ Panthers
Vikings @ Lions
49ers @ Seahawks

Wrong:

Cowboys @ Eagles

Some of the biggest flaws of the Eagles were on display in this game: they turn the ball over a lot. Their defense isn't very good against the pass. And when their offense isn't scoring, their fast paced style is more of a liability than an asset.

And while the Cowboys didn't play the most amazing game either, they only turned the ball over once, and were able to take advantage when the Eagles gave them short fields.

Packers @ Bills

What an ugly game for the Packers' offense. The Bills' defense deserves some credit, but this is the first time Rodgers has been held under a 44% completion rate since he took over from Favre.

The Packers' defense played well, and the running game was effective. But turnovers, too many incomplete passes, botched punt coverage, and a final fumble that resulted in a safety added up more than they were able to overcome. Perhaps the most surprising thing about this game is the Packers had a chance to win late, in spite of all the mistakes they made.

Split Picks: (APR 1-1, SRS 2-0, Line 2-0)

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Rams (Line)

Rumors of the demise of the Cardinals' defense are apparently greatly exaggerated. They absolutely shut down the Rams' offense (which, okay, is maybe not the biggest test in the world). But they only allowed the Rams' into the red zone twice, holding them to field goals each time.

And while the Cardinals' offense didn't light up the scoreboard either, they did manage to put the game out of reach of the Rams' struggling offense.

Saints (SRS, Line) @ Bears (APR)

Wow, the Bears seem like a broken team at this point. A defense that struggles to stop anybody and a desultory offense is a really bad combination. I wonder if they'll win another game this year?

Totals

Another very nice week of picks, and an unusual case of SRS gaining a spot on APR.

	This Week					This Season					%
APR	13	-	3			140	-	67	-	1	67.6%
SRS	14	-	2			138	-	69	-	1	66.6%
Line	14	-	2			146	-	61	-	1	70.4%