Pythagorean projection 2013->2014

Well, the Hall of Fame preseason game is now less than two weeks away, so I suppose it's time to get the new season going on fspi. Here we go!

As usual, this isn't a prediction of how many games teams are gonna win. It's more an indication of what they might be expected to do, and to create some commentary fodder for the teams that miss the mark.

Team	Projected Wins	Note
Jaguars	3.1	New QB
Texans	4.2	New HC, QB
Redskins	4.8	New HC
Raiders	4.9	New QB
Buccaneers	5.3	New HC
Jets	5.4
Browns	5.5	New HC, QB
Giants	5.6
Falcons	5.9
Vikings	6.1	New HC, QB
Bills	6.7
Ravens	7.1
Bears	7.3
Dolphins	7.5	New OC
Titans	7.5	New HC
Rams	7.6	New DC
Packers	7.8
Cowboys	8.2
Steelers	8.2
Lions	8.5	New HC
Chargers	9.2
Eagles	9.4
Colts	9.4
Cardinals	9.5
Patriots	10.5
Saints	10.8
Chiefs	11.1
Bengals	11.1
49ers	11.5
Panthers	11.6
Broncos	11.7
Seahawks	12.8

Comments:

• If you've been following fspi for very long, you'll know it's been a while since the last time a defending Super Bowl champion won a playoff game the following year. The Seahawks seem like they could be in good shape to end that streak.

• I kinda feel like the Panthers played a little over their heads in 2013, and maybe could be looking at a fall back this year. They'll certainly need more from their offense to be a threat in the playoffs.

• I also wonder if the Chiefs can maintain their winning pace. They're not gonna be flying under anybody's radar this year, and as long as Peyton Manning stays healthy, they're gonna have a hard time winning their division.

• The Cardinals are another team that could have trouble matching last season's success, especially without Daryl Washington. Carson Palmer needs to have a better season than he had last year.

• The Lions have a new head coach, and the Vikings have a new head coach and quarterback. Unless the Bears can get a major turn around on their defense (and assuming Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy), it's tempting to pencil in the Packers as the NFC North champs for 2014.

• Certainly, if Rodgers stays healthy, the Packers should easily surpass 7.8 wins.

NFL Wrapup: Pythagorean projection vs. reality

One final season wrapup post, and I got it in before spring summer! (Oh, well. Given how trivial some of the stuff is that passes for news right now, maybe it makes sense to wait a while to post it. Anyway...)

As usual, the "Projected Wins" value is used as a baseline, so a positive difference means the team exceeded their projected win value, a negative difference means they fell short.

Teams are sorted by the magnitude (absolute value) of the difference; teams that came close to their projected wins are near the top, teams farthest away from their projection are at the bottom.

This is a follow-up to a post from last summer. See this post for background details.

Team	Actual	Proj.	Diff	Note
Bills	6	5.8	0.2
Raiders	4	4.3	-0.3
Patriots	12	12.4	-0.4
Rams	7	6.6	0.4
Lions	7	6.5	0.5
Jaguars	4	3.4	0.6
Seahawks	13	12.4	0.6
Cowboys	8	7.4	0.6
Steelers	8	8.6	-0.6
49ers	12	11.3	0.7
Broncos	13	12.3	0.7
Dolphins	8	7.1	0.9
Chargers	9	8.0	1.0
Bengals	11	9.9	1.1
Ravens	8	9.4	-1.4
Browns	4	6.2	-2.2	Injuries, QB issues
Packers	8	10.3	-2.3	Aaron Rodgers hurt
Titans	7	4.5	2.5
Jets	8	5.4	2.6	Defense shows signs of life
Bears	8	10.8	-2.8	Injuries, big drop off on defense
Saints	11	8.1	2.9	Sean Payton back
Giants	7	10.0	-3.0	Injuries
Colts	10	6.8	3.2	Andrew Luck got better
Vikings	5	8.8	-3.3	Adrian Peterson regresses back to just very good
Buccaneers	4	7.9	-3.9	HC, QB controversy
Panthers	12	7.8	4.2	Defense much better
Cardinals	10	4.8	5.2	Bruce Arians, Carson Palmer
Eagles	10	4.0	6.0	Chip Kelly, Nick Foles
Redskins	3	9.1	-6.1	RG3 not fully recovered
Falcons	4	11.0	-7.0	Injuries
Texans	2	10.1	-8.1	Injuries
Chiefs	11	2.6	8.4	Andy Reid, defense much better

Using my original category metrics, that's 16 teams reasonably close, 9 teams moderately close, 5 teams wrong, and 2 teams in the "yikes" category.

Comments:

• Sean Payton really made a remarkable difference for the Saints. At this point, he's got to have a lot of good will available in New Orleans.

• Which kinda makes me wonder just how bad the situation with Jim Harbaugh really is. The 49ers were pretty much a doormat team from 2003 to 2010. Then Harbaugh is hired, and they are immediately one of the best teams in the league, advancing to the conference championship for 3 years in a row. Based on those kinds of results, he's really gotta be some kind of a pain if they still want to get rid of him.

• I was a little surprised to see that the Titans and Jets beat their respective projections by decent margins, in spite of their struggles. Clearly they both have issues to resolve, but maybe aren't that far away from at least being in contention for a playoff spot.

• Carson Palmer didn't have the most amazing season in the world (he threw a career high 22 interceptions), but he was so much of an upgrade over what the Cardinals had last year, he's gotta have some credit for their improved record.

• Last summer, I predicted that Chip Kelly might struggle getting his offensive schemes to work in the NFL. I'm still not totally sold it's going to work long term, but I have to admit he did better in his first season that I was expecting.

NFL Wrapup: APR's biggest upsets

Finally got around to finishing this. Better late then never, though, right? Right?

Dishonorable Mention: games that just missed the top 10

• Week 7: Andrew Luck and the Colts shred the Broncos suspect defense.

• Week 2: The Titans can't quite get past the Texans, and instead give them their last win of the season.

• Week 15: The Saints go into St. Louis, and look like dopes against the Rams. Again. (To be fair, the 2013 Rams are a lot better than they were in 2011.)

• Week 5: The Colts somehow score 34 points on the Seahawks, and give them their first loss of the season.

• Week 9: The Browns have one of a few really good games this season, and gave the Ravens one of the losses that kept them out of the playoffs this year.

APR's Top 10 Upsets of the 2012 Season

10. Week 15: Chargers 27, Broncos 20 (ρ=1.1438)
    The Broncos had a pretty ordinary defense this season, but for the most part, their record setting offense was more than able to make up the difference. In this game, the Chargers' defense was able to slow down the Broncos enough (holding them to a season low 20 points), and the Chargers' offense was able to control the clock and make sure Peyton Manning and the Broncos' offense spent a lot of time on the sidelines.

9. Week 10: Jaguars 29, Titans 27 (ρ=1.1511)
   For the first half of their season, the Jaguars looked like they were going to have a chance to go 0-16 this season. Then they put together a solid game on both offense and defense, shocking the Titans by getting their first win.

8. Week 7: Bears 41, Redskins 45 (ρ=1.1580)
   This is another case of a middle-of-the-road team losing to a really bad one. Even if you take into account one touchdown came on a pick 6, this was a lot of points for the Bears' defense to give up, especially considering the Redskins scored 27 points or less in all but two games this season.

7. Week 5: Chargers 17, Raiders 27 (ρ=1.1823)
   The Raiders mostly didn't have a very good defense this season; this was one of the few exceptions. They actually held the Chargers to 3 points until the 4th quarter. The Chargers mounted an attempt at a late come back, but the Oakland defense intercepted Philip Rivers on the Chargers last two drives, sealing the deal.

6. Week 1: Texans 31, Chargers 28 (ρ=1.1972)
   The Chargers managed to establish a 21-point lead with a touchdown on their first drive of the 3rd quarter. But after that, the Texans came roaring back, scoring an unanswered 24 points (including a critical pick 6). Another ugly loss for the Chargers.

5. Week 7: Patriots 27, Jets 30 (ρ=1.1994)
   This was a very ugly game for Tom Brady. Under 50% completion rate, under 5 yards an attempt passing, no touchdowns and an interception. Somehow the Patriots did manage to score 27 points, and force overtime. But in their final possession, the offense could only manage one first down, and their defense couldn't keep the Jets out of field goal range.

4. Week 2: Panthers 23, Bills 24 (ρ=1.2023)
   Part of this was a defensive breakdown by the Panthers' defense, only the Saints scored more points on them this season. Another issue in this game was the Panthers' offense twice settling for field goals after having goal-to-go situations.

3. Week 9: Chargers 24, Redskins 30 (ρ=1.2196)
   The Chargers could only score 24 points on the the Redskins very bad defense that mostly gave up a lot more points this season. Meanwhile, the Redskins scored 30 points on the Chargers

2. Week 9: Saints 20, Jets 26 (ρ=1.2332)
   This is maybe not totally fair to the Jets, who did manage to claw their way to an 8-8 record, thanks in part to the Dolphins pissing away their chance to get into the playoffs. But along with those 8 wins, the Jets also had 7 losses by double digits, including 4 by 20+ points. And the Saints, who with one more win, would have the NFC's #2 seed, could not beat them.

1. Week 4: Bengals 6, Browns 17 (ρ=1.2435)
   The Browns actually started out looking pretty good this season, with a decent defense, and (when Brian Hoyer started at quarterback) an offense to match. One of the results was this defeat of their division rival. But continued injuries at quarterback, along with a team that gave up on their season, meant the Browns finished their sixth season in a row with double digit losses.

None of these would qualify for a spot on APR's top 25 regular season upsets.

I always reserve the right to remove a game from the list when it's a case of a playoff bound team resting late in the season. That didn't happen this year.

Biggest Upsets According to the Line

Winning teams in bold. Teams favored by 10 or more points were 28-6-0 this year.

Week	Game	Line
1	Titans 16, Steelers 9	Steelers -7
6	Rams 38, Texans 13	Texans -7
7	Broncos 33, Colts 39	Broncos -7
13	Jaguars 32, Browns 28	Browns -7
15	Packers 37, Cowboys 36	Cowboys -7
16	Colts 23, Chiefs 7	Chiefs -7
2	Chargers 33, Eagles 30	Eagles -7½
7	Bills 23, Dolphins 21	Dolphins -8
16	Giants 23, Lions 20	Lions -8½
5	Jets 30, Falcons 28	Falcons -9½
10	Rams 38, Colts 8	Colts -9½
12	Buccaneers 24, Lions 21	Lions -9½
3	Colts 27, 49ers 7	49ers -10
12	Jaguars 13, Texans 6	Texans -10
15	Chargers 27, Broncos 20	Broncos -10
9	Bears 27, Packers 20	Packers -10½
16	Cardinals 17, Seahawks 10	Seahawks -10½
10	Jaguars 29, Titans 27	Titans -11

NFL Super Bowl Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Seahawks (APR, SRS) vs. Broncos (Line)

Like I said in the game pick, it was essential for Peyton Manning and the Broncos' offense to get a handle on the Seahawks' defense before this game got out of hand. As you know if you saw the game, that just didn't happen.

I think, even in the best case scenario for the Broncos, their defense was never gonna hold the Seahawks under 14, or probably even 21 points. I think that defense mostly did a reasonable job, holding the Seahawks to 13 points in the first half (the safety, and Manning's pick 6 cannot be laid to their charge).

After the mess of their first two drives (safety and interception), the Broncos did manage to get some drives going, they mostly ended up stalling, ending in a intercpetion, fumbles, or a turnover on downs.

Manning was only sacked once, but the Seahawks' defense kept him under constant pressure, which meant he had to throw a lot of short check down passes, largely eliminating a lot of the big play explosiveness that got the Broncos to the Super Bowl. Without that big play ability, they just couldn't sustain drives for the scores they needed.

Totals

Barely any upsets in the playoffs this year. Chargers @ Bengals was the only game APR (along with SRS and the Line) picked wrong.

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	1	-	0			10	-	1		90.9%
SRS	1	-	0			9	-	2		81.8%
Line	0	-	1			8	-	3		72.7%

That's not quite all for this season. I'm planning to do at least the season's biggest upsets post, and maybe a couple others as well. So you might wanna check in later this month. Thanks again for reading, and see you next August.

NFL Super Bowl Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Seahawks	1.1807 (LW × 1.0378)	16-3	Won by 35 @ Broncos
2 (-)	49ers	1.1352 (LW × 1.0114)	14-5	Bye
3 (↑1)	Cardinals	1.0648 (LW × 1.0057)	10-6	Bye
4 (↑1)	Saints	1.0341 (LW × 1.0114)	12-6	Bye
5 (↑1)	Panthers	1.0215 (LW × 1.0046)	12-5	Bye
6 (↓3)	Broncos	1.0183 (LW × 0.9528)	15-4	Lost by 35 vs Seahawks
7 (-)	Patriots	0.9973 (LW × 0.9866)	13-5	Bye
8 (-)	Chargers	0.9904 (LW × 0.9804)	10-8	Bye
9 (-)	Bengals	0.9724 (LW × 0.9926)	11-6	Bye
10 (-)	Rams	0.9697 (LW × 1.0088)	7-9	Bye
11 (-)	Eagles	0.9407 (LW × 1.0008)	10-7	Bye
12 (-)	Steelers	0.9254 (LW × 0.9953)	8-8	Bye
13 (-)	Colts	0.9066 (LW × 0.9904)	11-6	Bye
14 (↑1)	Dolphins	0.8932 (LW × 0.9949)	8-8	Bye
15 (↑1)	Giants	0.8850 (LW × 1.0001)	7-9	Bye
16 (↓2)	Chiefs	0.8835 (LW × 0.9821)	11-6	Bye
17 (-)	Buccaneers	0.8771 (LW × 1.0067)	4-12	Bye
18 (-)	Ravens	0.8638 (LW × 0.9958)	8-8	Bye
19 (↑1)	Vikings	0.8532 (LW × 1.0023)	5-10-1	Bye
20 (↓1)	Titans	0.8497 (LW × 0.9928)	7-8	Bye
21 (↑1)	Falcons	0.8454 (LW × 1.0067)	4-12	Bye
22 (↓1)	Bills	0.8441 (LW × 0.9965)	6-10	Bye
23 (-)	Cowboys	0.8352 (LW × 0.9988)	8-8	Bye
24 (-)	Bears	0.8305 (LW × 1.0004)	8-8	Bye
25 (-)	Lions	0.8271 (LW × 0.9998)	7-9	Bye
26 (-)	Jets	0.8233 (LW × 0.9964)	8-8	Bye
27 (-)	Packers	0.8163 (LW × 1.0016)	8-8-1	Bye
28 (-)	Jaguars	0.7883 (LW × 0.9934)	4-12	Bye
29 (↑1)	Browns	0.7429 (LW × 0.9943)	4-12	Bye
30 (↓1)	Raiders	0.7400 (LW × 0.9870)	4-12	Bye
31 (-)	Texans	0.7381 (LW × 0.9885)	2-14	Bye
32 (-)	Redskins	0.7373 (LW × 0.9965)	3-13	Bye

Comments:

• First Super Bowl Since Buccaneers-Raiders (XXXVII after the 2002 season) that wasn't within one score going into the 4th quarter.

• I really wasn't impressed with any of the AFC teams this year, but I thought that the Broncos were the best of the lot. Along with the fact that the Seahawks didn't seem to dominate the Saints or 49ers in those playoff games, I thought that gave the Broncos a real chance.

• Instead, the Seahawks played their best road game in a long while, and it looked like the Broncos were the ones that struggled away from their home stadium.

• I suppose the Broncos' loss will also trigger more talk abut Peyton Manning's lack of legacy or something. It's preposterous. Manning has been one of the most dominating quarterbacks over the last 15 years. If he's lacking in legacy because of playoff losses, what do you say about guys like Brett Favre (1-1 in the Super Bowl) and Dan Marino (0-1 in the Super Bowl)?

  In spite of the playoff losses, I don't see any basis to put into question Manning's legacy as one of the best quarterbacks ever.

NFL Super Bowl Game Pick

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Seahawks @ Broncos	Seahawks ρ=1.0645	Seahawks* δ=1.3	Broncos -2

Comments:

• The Broncos really haven't faced any strong defenses this year (possibly excepting the Chiefs, but the way they finished their season, I'm not sure how strong they really were). In any case, the Seahawks will easily be the best defense they've faced all season.

• The Broncos' defense has at least a couple ugly breakdowns this year. In week 5, the Broncos managed a win thanks to the fact that the Cowboys had a really bad defense. In Week 12, they saw a 24-point lead slowly slip away at the Patriots.

• But the line has some good reasons to favor the Broncos in this game. First of all, the Seahawks are just not the same team when they're playing away from their home stadium, and the Meadowlands is a long, long ways away from Seattle.

• And since their early December win over the Saints, the Seahawks haven't really looked that dominating. They suffered a couple losses (including their first home loss in two years), and both their playoff games came down to the last play of the game.

• However this game goes, I think it's going to be decided when the Broncos' offense and the Seahawks' defense are on the field. If the Broncos' offensive line can protect Manning, and he can figure out how to move the ball against that defense while the game is still close, it'll probably go the Broncos' way. If the Broncos' offense struggles for very long, I think the Seahawks' offense can score enough points pretty quickly to put this game away.

NFL Championship Week Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Patriots @ Broncos (APR, SRS, Line)

The Patriots seemed to have a lot of plays available to them on offense (that overthrown pass to Edelman being the best example), but they couldn't take advantage, at least not as much as they needed to. I wonder how much that's Brady not being on the same page with his receivers, and how much it's Brady getting old.

The Broncos defense seemed like they gave up a lot of plays, but with the way their offense was scoring points (they scored every time they had the ball, except for their first and last drives), the Broncos' defense really didn't need to get a lot of stops, and they got as many as they needed.

49ers @ Seahawks (APR, SRS, Line)

The good news for the 49ers is, they played their best game in Seattle of the Wilson/Kaepernick era, including establishing an early 10 point lead. But they were only able to add one more touchdown to that total, and meanwhile the Seahawks kept chipping away at their lead, and finally managed to pull ahead in the 4th quarter.

I wonder how much of this is Colin Kaepernick having trouble playing in high pressure situations. After their final touchdown, the 49ers offense produced a punt, a lost fumble, and two interceptions. That last interception seemed to me to be particularly bad. If Kaepernick had just thrown the ball away, the 49ers still would've had 2nd and 10 at the 18, with 0:22 left, and probably 3 more chances at a go ahead touchdown. Instead, he threw at probably the Seahawks' best DB, with disastrous results, and the game was over.

Totals

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	2	-	0			9	-	1		90%
SRS	2	-	0			8	-	2		80%
Line	2	-	0			8	-	2		80%

NFL Championship Week Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Seahawks	1.1377 (LW × 1.0099)	15-3	Won by 6 vs 49ers
2 (-)	49ers	1.1224 (LW × 1.0049)	14-5	Lost by 6 @ Seahawks
3 (↑1)	Broncos	1.0688 (LW × 1.0159)	15-3	Won by 10 vs Patriots
4 (↓1)	Cardinals	1.0587 (LW × 1.0029)	10-6	Bye
5 (↑1)	Saints	1.0225 (LW × 1.0021)	12-6	Bye
6 (↑1)	Panthers	1.0169 (LW × 0.9997)	12-5	Bye
7 (↓2)	Patriots	1.0108 (LW × 0.9886)	13-5	Lost by 10 @ Broncos
8 (-)	Chargers	1.0102 (LW × 1.0049)	10-8	Bye
9 (-)	Bengals	0.9797 (LW × 0.9994)	11-6	Bye
10 (-)	Rams	0.9612 (LW × 1.0028)	7-9	Bye
11 (-)	Eagles	0.9399 (LW × 1.0008)	10-7	Bye
12 (-)	Steelers	0.9298 (LW × 0.9976)	8-8	Bye
13 (-)	Colts	0.9154 (LW × 1.0009)	11-6	Bye
14 (↑1)	Chiefs	0.8995 (LW × 1.0042)	11-6	Bye
15 (↓1)	Dolphins	0.8978 (LW × 0.9973)	8-8	Bye
16 (-)	Giants	0.8849 (LW × 1.0021)	7-9	Bye
17 (-)	Buccaneers	0.8713 (LW × 1.0007)	4-12	Bye
18 (-)	Ravens	0.8675 (LW × 0.9975)	8-8	Bye
19 (-)	Titans	0.8559 (LW × 1.0036)	7-8	Bye
20 (-)	Vikings	0.8513 (LW × 1.0005)	5-10-1	Bye
21 (-)	Bills	0.8470 (LW × 0.9982)	6-10	Bye
22 (-)	Falcons	0.8399 (LW × 1.0011)	4-12	Bye
23 (-)	Cowboys	0.8362 (LW × 1.0010)	8-8	Bye
24 (-)	Bears	0.8301 (LW × 0.9997)	8-8	Bye
25 (↑1)	Lions	0.8272 (LW × 0.9995)	7-9	Bye
26 (↓1)	Jets	0.8263 (LW × 0.9981)	8-8	Bye
27 (-)	Packers	0.8150 (LW × 1.0002)	8-8-1	Bye
28 (-)	Jaguars	0.7935 (LW × 1.0016)	4-12	Bye
29 (↑1)	Raiders	0.7497 (LW × 1.0032)	4-12	Bye
30 (↓1)	Browns	0.7472 (LW × 0.9977)	4-12	Bye
31 (-)	Texans	0.7467 (LW × 1.0019)	2-14	Bye
32 (-)	Redskins	0.7399 (LW × 1.0023)	3-13	Bye

Comments:

• If the 49ers had won, they would have been the first Super Bowl losers to return since the Bills did it in 93.

• This week marks three championship game appearances in a row for both the Patriots and 49ers. Both have gone 1-2. Both the Broncos and Seahawks fell a win short of advancing to the championship round last year.

• Between their last Super Bowl appearance and their win over the Chargers a week ago, the Broncos were 2-6 in the playoffs. The Seahawks have gone 3-3 in the playoffs since their last Super Bowl appearance.

• I was a little surprised the 49ers made such a game of it today, and had a chance to win at the end of the game. Maybe another sign (along with the their loss to the Cardinals last month) that the Seahawks' defense isn't quite as dominating as it used to be.

NFL Championship Week Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Patriots @ Broncos	Broncos ρ=1.0289	Broncos δ=4.7	Broncos -4½
49ers @ Seahawks	Seahawks* ρ=1.0085	Seahawks δ=3.0	Seahawks -3½

Comments:

• Can the Patriots get by the Broncos to give Tom Brady a chance at a fourth Super Bowl ring? The Broncos defense hasn't been amazing this year, including giving up 17 points late in last Sunday's game against the Chargers. It seems likely the Patriots will look for every opportunity to exploit that.

  On the other hand, the Patriots really don't have an impressive road record this season, with losses to the Bengals, Dolphins, and Jets. They also needed 4th quarter comebacks to beat the Texans and the Bills. It's always dangerous to underestimate Belichick and Brady, but unless the Broncos just pull a face plant, I think this is where the Patriots season finally ends.

• Two times the Russell Wilson-era Seahawks have faced the Colin Kaepernick-era 49ers in Seattle, and two times the Seahawks have come away with convincing wins. Is there any reason to think that's going to be different the third time?

  I think the 49ers defense is good enough to hold the Seahawks to a reasonably low number of points on offense. But looking back at their week 2 matchup, probably the most striking thing is the 49ers almost complete inability to move the ball on offense. They only had two drives longer than 28 yards. The 49ers are gonna need a lot more than that from their offense to come away with an upset this week.

NFL Divisional Round Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Things went largely as expected this week, so not too much to say about the games.

Saints @ Seahawks (APR, SRS, Line)

The Saints' defense did surprisingly well in this game, holding the Seahawks to just 16 points until late in the 4th quarter. The problem was, the Saints' offense didn't get going until the 4th quarter, and by then it was just too late to make up the difference.

Colts @ Patriots (APR, SRS, Line)

The Colts turned the ball over on their opening drive, and never seemed to quite recover their equillibrium. They did manage to keep the game within 7 points going into the 4th quarter, but too many turnovers and too much LeGarrette Blount was more than the Colts could handle.

49ers (APR, SRS, Line) @ Panthers

It didn't seem like the Panthers' defense did a terrible job in this game, but given the offense they have, they needed to do better. The Panthers were 0-4 (including this game) when their opponent scored more than 20 points.

Chargers @ Broncos (APR, SRS, Line)

The Chargers' defense did an okay job slowing down the Broncos offense, holding them to just 17 points through 3 quarters. But their offense just couldn't get going at all. They seemed to find something late when Rivers started throwing a lot of deep balls, but by then it was too late, and once the Broncos' offense got the ball back, they were able to run out the clock for the win.

Totals

No upsets (and no split picks)!

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	4	-	0			7	-	1		83%
SRS	4	-	0			6	-	2		75%
Line	4	-	0			6	-	2		75%

NFL Divisional Round Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Seahawks	1.1265 (LW × 1.0090)	14-3	Won by 8 vs Saints
2 (-)	49ers	1.1170 (LW × 1.0210)	14-4	Won by 13 @ Panthers
3 (↑1)	Cardinals	1.0557 (LW × 1.0007)	10-6	Bye
4 (↑2)	Broncos	1.0520 (LW × 1.0167)	14-3	Won by 7 vs Chargers
5 (↑2)	Patriots	1.0225 (LW × 1.0152)	13-4	Won by 21 vs Colts
6 (↓1)	Saints	1.0203 (LW × 0.9859)	12-6	Lost by 8 @ Seahawks
7 (↓4)	Panthers	1.0172 (LW × 0.9632)	12-5	Lost by 13 vs 49ers
8 (-)	Chargers	1.0052 (LW × 1.0038)	10-8	Lost by 7 @ Broncos
9 (-)	Bengals	0.9803 (LW × 0.9982)	11-6	Bye
10 (-)	Rams	0.9586 (LW × 0.9980)	7-9	Bye
11 (-)	Eagles	0.9392 (LW × 0.9979)	10-7	Bye
12 (-)	Steelers	0.9320 (LW × 0.9998)	8-8	Bye
13 (-)	Colts	0.9146 (LW × 0.9832)	11-6	Lost by 21 @ Patriots
14 (-)	Dolphins	0.9003 (LW × 0.9960)	8-8	Bye
15 (-)	Chiefs	0.8958 (LW × 1.0001)	11-6	Bye
16 (-)	Giants	0.8830 (LW × 1.0010)	7-9	Bye
17 (-)	Buccaneers	0.8706 (LW × 0.9934)	4-12	Bye
18 (-)	Ravens	0.8697 (LW × 1.0000)	8-8	Bye
19 (-)	Titans	0.8528 (LW × 1.0014)	7-8	Bye
20 (-)	Vikings	0.8509 (LW × 0.9994)	5-10-1	Bye
21 (-)	Bills	0.8485 (LW × 0.9975)	6-10	Bye
22 (-)	Falcons	0.8389 (LW × 0.9937)	4-12	Bye
23 (-)	Cowboys	0.8353 (LW × 0.9986)	8-8	Bye
24 (↑1)	Bears	0.8303 (LW × 0.9989)	8-8	Bye
25 (↓1)	Jets	0.8279 (LW × 0.9939)	8-8	Bye
26 (-)	Lions	0.8276 (LW × 0.9986)	7-9	Bye
27 (-)	Packers	0.8149 (LW × 1.0006)	8-8-1	Bye
28 (-)	Jaguars	0.7923 (LW × 0.9999)	4-12	Bye
29 (-)	Browns	0.7489 (LW × 1.0002)	4-12	Bye
30 (-)	Raiders	0.7474 (LW × 1.0014)	4-12	Bye
31 (-)	Texans	0.7453 (LW × 1.0008)	2-14	Bye
32 (-)	Redskins	0.7381 (LW × 1.0018)	3-13	Bye

Comments:

• All remaining teams are in the top 5, along with the staying-at-home Cardinals. It's really too bad the Cardinals couldn't make it into the playoffs. I feel like they really had a chance to make a run, even playing on the road. Certainly if you imagine some hypothetical scenario where they were awarded a playoff seed on the AFC side.

• I had two thoughts in rapid succession on the last play of the Saints-Seahawks game. First, how on earth did the Seahawks' defense let Marques Colston get that open right next to the sideline? And second, is Marques Colston a complete idiot?

  If Colston had just stepped out of bounds, Brees would at least have had a chance at a 40 yard pass to the endzone. Not the highest percentag play, but it's gotta be better than any sort of lateral play (even supposing Colston's pass had not been illegal).

• Peyton Manning avoids adding yet another one-and-done playoff run to his resume. He's actually had 4 years where he's won at least one playoff game, including a couple Super Bowl runs.

• While the Broncos and Patriots are ranked #4 and #5, there's a pretty good gap between their respective power indexes. That will be a matchup ρ of 1.0288, compared to a ρ of 1.0085 for the 49ers-Seahawks game.

NFL Divisional Round Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Colts @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.0827	Patriots δ=1.3	Patriots -7½
Saints @ Seahawks	Seahawks ρ=1.0788	Seahawks δ=4.6	Seahawks -7½
49ers @ Panthers	49ers ρ=1.0360	49ers* δ=0.6	49ers -1
Chargers @ Broncos	Broncos* ρ=1.0333	Broncos δ=7.8	Broncos -10

Comments:

• I haven't been real impressed with the Patriots this season, but I don't think the Colts are gonna be the ones to knock them out of the playoffs. When the Patriots have lost this season, it's mostly been because their offense has struggled with their opponents' defense.

  The Colts (as evidenced last Saturday) have an unremarkable defense at best, and I don't think they have enough to slow down the Patriots. And unlike the Chiefs, Bill Belechick and Tom Brady know how to hang on to a 4 touchdown lead.

• The Saints played the Seahawks in Seattle week 13, and got clobbered. Since then, the Seahawks have lost twice, including once to the Cardinals in Seattle, so the Saints have at least some idea of what it takes to win. But I just don't feel like the Saints' defense is as good as the Cardinals or 49ers, so unless the Seahawks just come out really flat, this game should go the Seahawks way again.

• I think on paper, the Panthers are a better team than the 49ers. Especially playing at home, this is a game the Panthers should win. That said, I think there's a couple factors working in the 49ers favor.

  First of all, this is another case of a quarterback and head coach (Kaepernick and Harbaugh) with playoff experience versus a pair (Newton and Rivera) with none. I think this is a less extreme case than the Saints-Eagles matchup last week, but it is there.

  Second, and probably more important, I wonder how ready the Panthers are to play in the high-pressure, high attention environment of the playoffs. The Panthers' last loss came week 14 in a Sunday night prime time matchup at the Saints. If they come out as flat as they were in that game, the 49ers will clobber them.

• Of course, the Chargers got a big-time upset over the Broncos in Denver week 15. And Peyton Manning is notorious for one-and-done playoff appearances. That said, unless the Broncos turn the ball over like the Bengals did, I think this is where the clock chime midnight on the Chargers Cinderella season.

NFL Wildcard Round Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Chiefs (SRS) @ Colts (APR, Line)

This was a pretty ugly game for both teams. But especially so for the Chiefs, who got to 11 wins and a playoff berth largely on the strength of their defense. They had a 28 point lead early in the 3rd quarter, and then... just fell apart. Their offense mostly didn't sustain drives, their defense couldn't get off the field, and the Colts managed to chip away at that lead until it was gone.

Saints (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)

The Eagles were 1-3 in the regular season when they allowed 26 or more points, so a lot of this has to go on their defense. But their (sometimes, anyway) high-powered offense never got going, either. Nick Foles only passed for 195 yards, and LeSean McCoy was held to just 77 yards rushing.

There were coaching issues, too. When the Saints got down inside the 20 with less than 2 minutes left, the Eagles really should have let the Saints score. Yeah, they would have been down 5 or 7 (depending on whether the Saints made the 2 point conversion), but at least they would've had a chance to respond. Instead, the Saints got another first down, drained away the rest of the clock, and kicked the winning field goal as time expired.

Chargers @ Bengals (APR, SRS, Line)

I mentioned in the game picks that the Chargers would need 4 turnovers to have a chance (and then dismissed it, since the Chargers hardly ever got turnovers in the regular season). But the Bengals were more obliging, giving up a couple fumbles, and Dalton throwing a couple interceptions. Mix in an offense that couldn't much maintain drives even when they didn't end in turnovers, and the Bengals' playoff victory drought will continue for another year.

49ers (APR, SRS, Line) @ Packers

Well, the Packers didn't need to score 40 to win this, but they did need more than 20. There's some blame that can be placed on the defense, especially on that last drive, but honestly, holding the 49ers to 23 points is pretty good work for that bunch.

The real probelm for me was the offense, which punted 5 times, and settled for a game tying field goal after having goal to goal on their last drive. This is a team that scored 28 or more points 8 times in the regular season, including the season opener against these same 49ers. The Packers just need more from their offense to win this game.

Totals

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	3	-	1			3	-	1		75%
SRS	2	-	2			2	-	2		50%
Line	2	-	2			2	-	2		50%

NFL Wildcard Week Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Seahawks	1.1165 (LW × 1.0011)	13-3	Bye
2 (-)	49ers	1.0940 (LW × 0.9891)	13-4	Won by 3 @ Packers
3 (-)	Panthers	1.0560 (LW × 1.0009)	12-4	Bye
4 (-)	Cardinals	1.0549 (LW × 1.0008)	10-6	Bye
5 (-)	Saints	1.0349 (LW × 1.0087)	12-5	Won by 2 @ Eagles
6 (↑1)	Broncos	1.0348 (LW × 1.0170)	13-3	Bye
7 (↑1)	Patriots	1.0072 (LW × 0.9998)	12-4	Bye
8 (↑2)	Chargers	1.0014 (LW × 1.0584)	10-7	Won by 17 @ Bengals
9 (↓3)	Bengals	0.9821 (LW × 0.9624)	11-6	Lost by 17 vs Chargers
10 (↓1)	Rams	0.9605 (LW × 1.0009)	7-9	Bye
11 (↑1)	Eagles	0.9411 (LW × 1.0063)	10-7	Lost by 2 vs Saints
12 (↓1)	Steelers	0.9322 (LW × 0.9957)	8-8	Bye
13 (-)	Colts	0.9302 (LW × 1.0047)	11-5	Won by 1 vs Chiefs
14 (-)	Dolphins	0.9039 (LW × 1.0014)	8-8	Bye
15 (-)	Chiefs	0.8957 (LW × 1.0149)	11-6	Lost by 1 @ Colts
16 (↑2)	Giants	0.8821 (LW × 1.0117)	7-9	Bye
17 (-)	Buccaneers	0.8764 (LW × 1.0001)	4-12	Bye
18 (↓2)	Ravens	0.8697 (LW × 0.9915)	8-8	Bye
19 (↑2)	Titans	0.8516 (LW × 1.0049)	7-8	Bye
20 (↓1)	Vikings	0.8514 (LW × 0.9993)	5-10-1	Bye
21 (↓1)	Bills	0.8506 (LW × 1.0002)	6-10	Bye
22 (-)	Falcons	0.8442 (LW × 1.0023)	4-12	Bye
23 (↑1)	Cowboys	0.8365 (LW × 1.0078)	8-8	Bye
24 (↓1)	Jets	0.8329 (LW × 0.9981)	8-8	Bye
25 (-)	Bears	0.8312 (LW × 1.0033)	8-8	Bye
26 (-)	Lions	0.8288 (LW × 1.0008)	7-9	Bye
27 (-)	Packers	0.8144 (LW × 1.0181)	8-8-1	Lost by 3 vs 49ers
28 (-)	Jaguars	0.7924 (LW × 1.0041)	4-12	Bye
29 (-)	Browns	0.7487 (LW × 0.9960)	4-12	Bye
30 (↑1)	Raiders	0.7463 (LW × 1.0133)	4-12	Bye
31 (↓1)	Texans	0.7447 (LW × 1.0053)	2-14	Bye
32 (-)	Redskins	0.7368 (LW × 1.0087)	3-13	Bye

Comments:

• The road teams went 3-1 this round, which is probably good news for the teams playing at home next week.

• Congratulations to the Saints, who got their first road win in the playoffs this week. That leaves the Bengals as the only franchise without a road win in the playoffs. (Although the Lions don't have one since 1957, and the Browns don't have one since 1969.)

• Sadly, the Packers couldn't quite pull off the upset, and so the FSPI streak of the lowest ranked playoff team winning in the first round ends this year.

• The Eagles move up a spot on their loss, at least partly because the Steelers look worse because of the Bengals 17 point loss (note the Ravens also dropped a couple spots).

NFL Wildcard Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
49ers @ Packers	49ers ρ=1.3828	49ers* δ=13.2	49ers -2½
Saints @ Eagles	Saints* ρ=1.0970	Saints* δ=6.9	Eagles -2½
Chargers @ Bengals	Bengals ρ=1.0785	Bengals δ=2.7	Bengals -6½
Chiefs @ Colts	Colts* ρ=1.0491	Chiefs* δ=1.9	Colts -2½

Comments:

• Can the Packers avoid another home loss in the playoffs? Their defense didn't look good in their week 1 matchup against the 49ers, although even so, the Packers had a chance to win at the end. And now that the 49ers have Michael Crabtree back, it could be even tougher on the Packers' defense. And if the conditions favor running over passing, the 49ers can rely on Gore and Kaepernick rushing the ball.

  The Packers should have at least a chance in this game, but I think they're gonna need to score at least 40 points to finish on top.

• As I've mentioned before, the Saints aren't nearly as good on the road as they are in the dome. The Eagles are 7-1 in their last 8 games, but have some tough losses, including that week 15 loss to the otherwise hapless Vikings. The Line is probably right in picking the Eagles, but I feel like the experience of Drew Brees and Sean Payton (compared to the lack thereof for Foles and Kelly) could tip this game in favor of the Saints.

  I'm not saying this is gonna be an upset. I just feel like the potential is there.

• Before the Chiefs fell apart against the Colts a couple weeks ago, I would have picked them as easy winners of this game. But even with that win over the Chiefs, the Colts have mostly looked not very impressive since Reggie Wayne got hurt. And if the Chiefs can get their defense going, and get at least a few scores out of their offense, this should be a winnable game for them.

• I think the Bengals are the easiest pick this week. The Chargers barely squeaked into the playoffs, thanks to an overtime win over the "light" version of the Chiefs. Maybe if Andy Dalton throws 4 interceptions again, the Chargers might have a chance. (It's also worth noting the Chargers' defense was one of the NFL's worst in getting turnovers. Only the Jets and Texans had fewer.)

Week 17 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 16 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Packers (+14)

ESPN had the Packers overrated when they were without Aaron Rodgers (and Randall Cobb), so it's fair to say APR has them underrated now that they've returned. Still, I don't think a late win over a not-very-good Bears team is worth a 4 spot bump.

Bears (+10)

Maybe APR has them ranked a bit too low at #25, but #15 is too high for the Bears and their awful defense. Only the Vikings allowed more points this year. and only the Cowboys and Vikings allowed more yards.

Cowboys (+7)

APR and ESPN both drop the Cowboys 2 spots after losing to the Eagles. This is another team with a bad defense, and shouldn't be ranked as high as #17.

On the Bubble

Nobody closer than the Lions, Chiefs, Broncos, and Colts (all +5).

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Rams (-11)

APR has the Rams rated way too high at #9.

Buccaneers (-10)

And #17 is too high for the 4-12 Buccaneers.

On the bubble:

Nobody closer than the Vikings, Bills, Gians, and Cardinals, all (-5)

NFL Week 17 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (12-1)

Right:

Panthers @ Falcons
Broncos @ Raiders
49ers @ Cardinals
Eagles @ Cowboys
Browns @ Steelers
Redskins @ Giants
Texans @ Titans
Jaguars @ Colts
Ravens @ Bengals
Buccaneers @ Saints
Bills @ Patriots
Rams @ Seahawks

Wrong:

Jets @ Dolphins

This was another game very much according to the Jets strengths: adequate passing with solid run support, no turnovers, and a dominating defense. Meanwhile, the Dolphins only mounted three extended drives, with two of them ending on turnovers. Just an ugly performance by a team that would've been in the playoffs with one more win.

Split Picks: (APR 1-2, SRS 1-2, Line 3-0)

Packers (SRS, Line) @ Bears (APR)

Aaron Rodgers looked a little rusty to start, throwing interceptions to end the Packers first two drives. But after that, the Packers offense did a lot better, scoring on 6 of their next 8 drives. The Bears' offense mostly kept up, but they needed a little more out of their defense to win this game.

Lions (APR, SRS) @ Vikings (Line)

One of the few games this season the Lions didn't turn over the ball. But they're not the same offense without Calvin Johnson. You could also easily make the case that they just gave up on what was left of their season. An ugly end for Jim Schwartz' tenure as head coach.

Chiefs (SRS) @ Chargers (APR, Line)

The Chiefs were resting a bunch of starters in this game, so the real surprise is they came as close to winning as they did. The Chiefs played a very solid game on offense (200 yards passing, 143 yards rushing, and no turnovers). If their defense had done a little better (or the refs had called illegal formation penalty on that late field goal try), the Chargers would have gone home with a loss.

Totals

A nice round of results for everybody, thanks to a near-perfect set of unanimous picks.

	This Week						This Season					%
APR	13	-	3				145	-	94	-	1	60.6%
SRS	13	-	3				145	-	94	-	1	50.6%
Line	15	-	1				154	-	85	-	1	64.4%

NFL Week 17 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Seahawks	1.1152 (LW × 1.0184)	13-3	Won by 18 vs Rams
2 (-)	49ers	1.1061 (LW × 1.0106)	12-4	Won by 3 @ Cardinals
3 (-)	Panthers	1.0551 (LW × 0.9858)	12-4	Won by 1 @ Falcons
4 (-)	Cardinals	1.0540 (LW × 0.9973)	10-6	Lost by 3 vs 49ers
5 (↑1)	Saints	1.0260 (LW × 1.0105)	11-5	Won by 25 vs Buccaneers
6 (↑2)	Bengals	1.0205 (LW × 1.0199)	11-5	Won by 17 vs Ravens
7 (↓2)	Broncos	1.0175 (LW × 0.9998)	13-3	Won by 20 @ Raiders
8 (↓1)	Patriots	1.0074 (LW × 1.0064)	12-4	Won by 14 vs Bills
9 (-)	Rams	0.9597 (LW × 0.9898)	7-9	Lost by 18 @ Seahawks
10 (-)	Chargers	0.9462 (LW × 1.0010)	9-7	Won by 3 vs Chiefs
11 (↑1)	Steelers	0.9362 (LW × 1.0034)	8-8	Won by 13 vs Browns
12 (↑1)	Eagles	0.9353 (LW × 1.0086)	10-6	Won by 2 @ Cowboys
13 (↑1)	Colts	0.9259 (LW × 1.0052)	10-5	Won by 20 vs Jaguars
14 (↓3)	Dolphins	0.9026 (LW × 0.9667)	8-8	Lost by 13 vs Jets
15 (↑1)	Chiefs	0.8825 (LW × 0.9925)	11-5	Lost by 3 @ Chargers
16 (↑1)	Ravens	0.8771 (LW × 0.9926)	8-8	Lost by 17 @ Bengals
17 (↓2)	Buccaneers	0.8763 (LW × 0.9846)	4-12	Lost by 25 @ Saints
18 (-)	Giants	0.8719 (LW × 1.0062)	7-9	Won by 14 vs Redskins
19 (↑5)	Vikings	0.8520 (LW × 1.0194)	5-10-1	Won by 1 vs Lions
20 (↓1)	Bills	0.8504 (LW × 0.9877)	6-10	Lost by 14 @ Patriots
21 (↓1)	Titans	0.8475 (LW × 0.9869)	7-8	Won by 6 vs Texans
22 (↑3)	Falcons	0.8423 (LW × 1.0093)	4-12	Lost by 1 vs Panthers
23 (↑3)	Jets	0.8346 (LW × 1.0326)	8-8	Won by 13 @ Dolphins
24 (↓2)	Cowboys	0.8301 (LW × 0.9793)	8-8	Lost by 2 vs Eagles
25 (↓4)	Bears	0.8285 (LW × 0.9762)	8-8	Lost by 5 vs Packers
26 (↓3)	Lions	0.8282 (LW × 0.9893)	7-9	Lost by 1 @ Vikings
27 (↑1)	Packers	0.7999 (LW × 1.0152)	8-7-1	Won by 5 @ Bears
28 (↓1)	Jaguars	0.7891 (LW × 0.9893)	4-12	Lost by 20 @ Colts
29 (↑1)	Browns	0.7517 (LW × 1.0061)	4-12	Lost by 13 @ Steelers
30 (↑2)	Texans	0.7408 (LW × 1.0011)	2-14	Lost by 6 @ Titans
31 (↓2)	Raiders	0.7365 (LW × 0.9836)	4-12	Lost by 20 vs Broncos
32 (↓1)	Redskins	0.7305 (LW × 0.9801)	3-13	Lost by 14 @ Giants

Comments:

• For the second season in a row, the Super Bowl champion has been eliminated from the playoffs, which also extends the streak of Super Bowl champions not winning a playoff game the following season to 7 years.

• The Lions were 6-3 after week 10, and finished on a terrible 1-6 streak that left them out of the playoffs. Echoes of that 2007 season, where the Lions started out 6-2, and finished 1-7 (and were 0-16 the following year).

• The Chargers manage to clinch the AFC's #6 seed. But they barely beat a Chiefs team playing their backups. It seems like their chances of winning in the playoffs are pretty remote.

• This also means the Bengals have an excellent chance to win a playoff game for the first time in 23 years, currently the longest active winless streak.

• The Cardinals are the highest ranked team out of the playoffs, and probably would've been an easy division winner in a lot of other divisions.

• Packers are the lowest ranked team to make the playoffs (but not ranked as low as the 2010 Seahawks).

NFL Week 17 Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Broncos @ Raiders	Broncos ρ=1.3591	Broncos* δ=19.4	Broncos -12
Panthers @ Falcons	Panthers ρ=1.2825	Panthers* δ=13.1	Panthers -7
Browns @ Steelers	Steelers ρ=1.2488	Steelers δ=4.8	Steelers -7
Redskins @ Giants	Giants ρ=1.1627	Giants δ=2.7	Giants -3½
Bills @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.1625	Patriots δ=8.4	Patriots -9½
Texans @ Titans	Titans ρ=1.1605	Titans δ=6.7	Titans -7
Jets @ Dolphins	Dolphins ρ=1.1553	Dolphins δ=7.5	Dolphins -6½
Jaguars @ Colts	Colts ρ=1.1547	Colts δ=14.6	Colts -11½
Buccaneers @ Saints	Saints ρ=1.1408	Saints δ=9.6	Saints -12½
Ravens @ Bengals	Bengals ρ=1.1323	Bengals δ=7.8	Bengals -6
Rams @ Seahawks	Seahawks ρ=1.1295	Seahawks δ=9.9	Seahawks -10½
Eagles @ Cowboys	Eagles ρ=1.0940	Eagles* δ=2.7	Eagles -6½
Packers @ Bears	Bears ρ=1.0771	Packers* δ=0.5	Packers -3
Chiefs @ Chargers	Chargers* ρ=1.0629	Chiefs* δ=4.2	Chargers -9½
49ers @ Cardinals	49ers ρ=1.0355	49ers* δ=3.8	49ers -2
Lions @ Vikings	Lions* ρ=1.0015	Lions* δ=5.8	Vikings -3

Comments:

• As usual, the Line for the Packers awaits an announcement on Aaron Rodgers. I will update when it is made. Update: Rodgers is finally ready to roll.

• Can the Packers beat the Bears? In my more lucid moments, I'm not sure I want them to. Given the strength of the wildcard contenders, I think there's a high likelihood the NFC North champ will be one-and-done in the playoffs this year. Maybe the Packers (or Bears) only hope is to somehow get matched up with the Saints, whose notorious inability to play well on the road is the chief reason they're (probably) not NFC South champs this year.

• A surprising amount of agreement for the last week of the regular season, I think. But a lot of teams still have something to play for.

• I feel like Eagles @ Cowboys is gonna be a lot like last week's Bears @ Eagles game. We're gonna see a lot of LeSean McCoy and Bryce Brown, and especially without Romo, this game will likely be over by halftime.

• The Chiefs are, I think, the only team locked into their seed, and so will be resting at least some of their starters. Interesting that APR picks the Chargers to win, even without having that information.

• Can the Lions beat the lowly Vikings? The week 1 Vikings @ Lions game was actually within 3 points well into the 4th quarter. And playing at home, closing out the Metrodome, the Vikings are not gonna be a push over.

NFL Week 16 APR vs. ESPN

And here's this week's version. Now with actual subject line. (What can I say, I went into town today.)

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 16 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Packers (+11)

The Packers' defense is somewhere between weak and flat-out awful. And Matt Flynn is prone to interceptions, fumbles, and late game confusion. Like I said in the week 15 writeup, without Aaron Rodgers, the Packers don't belong anywhere near the middle of the power rankings.

Bears (+8)

ESPN somehow holds the Bears steady after their 43-point beat down at the hands of the Eagles. And besides their awful defense, quarterback Jay Cutler has been playing poorly enough to generate calls to bench him in favor of career backup Josh McCown.

Cowboys (+7)

ESPN raises the Cowboys 3 spots for their last-minute 1 point win over the hapless Redskins. The Cowboys are really not a very good team, and if Tony Romo can't finish the season, it's gonna be that much worse for them.

On the Bubble

APR and ESPN both drop the Chiefs (+6) 4 spots on their home loss to the Colts. They really haven't looked very good since that 9-0 start.

APR and ESPN both raise the Colts (+6) 2 spots on their road win over the Chiefs. It's easily their most impressive win since beating the Broncos in week 7.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Buccaneers (-11)

I'm not really sure why APR raised the Bucs 3 spots after their 10-point loss to the Rams. Another double-digit loss next week, and Coach Schiano could be out.

Rams (-10)

The good news for the Rams is they're just one win away from their first 8-win season since 2006. The bad news is, they'll be in Seattle, facing a Seahawks team that needs one more win to clinch the division and the top seed. On the other hand, the Rams have a few impressive upsets on their schedule, and are 4-2 in their last 6 games.

On the bubble:

The Giants (-6) disasterous 0-6 start pretty much wrecked their chances for the playoffs. But they've gone 6-3 since then, and don't really belong in the bottom 10 teams of the power rankings.

Similarly, the Steelers (-6) have gone 7-4 since their 0-4 start, and actually have a sliver of a chance to sneak into the playoffs. But APR probably has them ranked too high at #12.