NFL: Week 11 Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Ravens @ Panthers	Ravens ρ=1.4626	Ravens* δ=19.8	Ravens -10
Texans @ Jets	Jets ρ=1.2530	Jets δ=12.4	Jets -7
Redskins @ Titans	Titans ρ=1.1653	Titans δ=11.2	Titans -7
Cardinals @ Chiefs	Chiefs ρ=1.1469	Chiefs δ=11.5	Chiefs -8
Falcons @ Rams	Falcons ρ=1.1453	Falcons* δ=9.7	Falcons -3
Packers @ Vikings	Packers ρ=1.1340	Packers* δ=10.4	Packers -3
Raiders @ Steelers	Steelers ρ=1.1245	Steelers δ=4.3	Steelers -7½
Broncos @ Chargers	Chargers ρ=1.0841	Chargers δ=7.3	Chargers -10
Seahawks @ Saints	Saints ρ=1.0823	Saints δ=8.1	Saints -12
Giants @ Eagles	Eagles* ρ=1.0747	Eagles δ=4.1	Eagles -3
Browns @ Jaguars	Browns ρ=1.0679	Browns* δ=7.6	Jaguars -1½
Lions @ Cowboys	Lions ρ=1.0675	Lions* δ=8.4	Cowboys -6½
Bills @ Bengals	Bengals* ρ=1.0562	Bengals δ=3.9	Bengals -5½
Colts @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.0502	Patriots δ=2.3	Patriots -3
Bears @ Dolphins	Dolphins* ρ=1.0359	Dolphins δ=1.0	Dolphins -1½
Buccaneers @ 49ers	Buccaneers ρ=1.0281	Buccaneers* δ=0.3	49ers -3

Comments:

• Byes are done. Yay!

• Lots of agreement this week—only 3 split picks.

• SRS-VH doesn't like the Ravens to beat the Panthers? The Ravens have struggled on the road (including a loss to the now 2-7 Bengals). But lose to the Panthers? That would be a major shock for a team a lot of people have picked to make it to the Super Bowl.

  Update: Brian St. Pierre is scheduled to start at QB for the Panthers on Sunday. Until recently, St. Pierre was the 3rd-string QB for the Cardinals, and (every time I saw him play, anyway) was never in danger of moving up the depth chart. Apparently it was a choice between him and a 6th-round rookie.

• The Steelers will have to play a lot better on offense if they're going to beat the Raiders by more than a touchdown. They're certainly not an easy win anymore (and weren't last year, either, when the Steelers played them).

• Not even the line likes the Bears against the Miami "who's our QB now?" Dolphins. Of course, home field is usually worth ~3 points on the line... I wonder how much home field on a Thursday night is worth?

NFL: Week 10 APR vs ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 9 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Buccaneers (+9)

op. cit.

Texans (+9)

The Texans are 4-5, and have given up more points than any other team in the league, and are 1-4 in their last 5. That's not anywhere close to a good team.

On the bubble:

Falcons, Seahawks (+7).

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Lions (-13)

Maybe APR has the Lions overrated, but they are not the second-worst team in the league right now.

Browns (-10)

The keep playing good teams close, but coming away with losses. That's usually a coaching problem, isn't it?

On the bubble:

Titans are closest at (-6).

NFL: Week 10 Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous Picks (4-5)

Right

Jets @ Browns
Eagles @ Redskins
Panthers @ Buccaneers
Bengals @ Colts

Wrong

Chiefs @ Broncos

Is there any figuring the Broncos? 3 weeks ago, they had a 45-point blow-out loss to the Raiders, and followed up by giving the 49ers their second win of the season. Now they blow out the Chiefs by 20 points? Somebody needs to tell them to play like that every week.

Titans @ Dolphins

What's happened to Kerry Collins? Just two years ago, he lead the Titans to a 13-3 record, and the #1 seed in the AFC. In this game, he was 9/20 for 51 yards passing, after two full quarters of play. No surprise the still-injured Vince Young got the call for the second half.

Vikings @ Bears

In spite of some occasional heroics, the Vikings really are a bad team. Favre threw 3 interceptions to just one touchdown, Adrian Peterson was held to just 51 yards rushing (much of that on just one carry), and the defense only got to the highly-sackable Cutler one time.

Cowboys @ Giants

Apparently, the missing key to the Cowboys' success is practicing in full pads. Maybe not quite the blow-out it seems, when a pick-6 means a 10-, if not 14-point swing on one play. But unlike a week ago in Green Bay, the Cowboys came out to play.

Patriots @ Steelers

The Steelers' seemed to be out-powered on both sides of the ball in this game. They were outscored 24-3 in the first 3 quarters, and a fourth-quarter comeback attempt was snuffed out when Roethlisberger's one interception went back for a touchdown.

Split (APR: 0-5 SRS: 1-4 Line: 4-1)

Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Falcons (Line)

The Ravens pretty much lost this game twice. A muffed punt and an interception gave the Falcons an easy 10 points. Late, the Ravens managed to dig their way out of that hole, and take the lead with just 65 seconds left in the game. But their defense just couldn't hold, not for one measly drive.

Lions (APR, SRS) @ Bills (Line)

The Bills have been playing a lot better on defense since they gave up on the 3-4 scheme. And in spite of improvements to the Lions, they still haven't won a road game in more than 3 years.

Rams (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)

One big reason the Rams lost can be found in Sam Bradford's passing stats: 30 of 42 for 251 yards. It's really tough to win a game if your QB averages less than 6 yards a passing attempt.

Texans (APR, SRS) @ Jaguars (Line)

The Jaguars have given up a lot of points this season (at least 24 points 7 times now). One of the few teams that's given up more points than the Jaguars is the Texans (at least 24 points every game this season).

Seahawks (SRS) @ Cardinals (APR, Line)

It's no shock the Cardinals offense struggled, but what happened to their defense? Matt Hasselbeck lit up the Cardinals' secondary for 333 yards passing and a touchdown. And 4 different Seahawks receivers had long receptions of 32 yards or more.

Totals

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	4-10	64-64-0	50.0%
APR VH	4-10	62-66-0	48.4%
SRS	5- 9	67-61-0	52.3%
SRS VH	9- 5	70-57-1	55.1%
Line	8- 6	78-50-0	60.9%

NFL: Week 10 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑2)	Jets	1.0380 (LW × 1.0211)	7-2	Won by 6 @ Browns
2 (-)	Ravens	1.0346 (LW × 1.0086)	6-3	Lost by 5 @ Falcons
3 (↑3)	Patriots	1.0286 (LW × 1.0452)	7-2	Won by 13 @ Steelers
4 (↓3)	Steelers	1.0080 (LW × 0.9634)	6-3	Lost by 13 vs Patriots
5 (↑5)	Eagles	0.9911 (LW × 1.0298)	6-3	Won by 31 @ Redskins
6 (↑1)	Packers	0.9889 (LW × 1.0113)	6-3	Bye
7 (↓3)	Titans	0.9870 (LW × 0.9763)	5-4	Lost by 12 @ Dolphins
8 (-)	Falcons	0.9863 (LW × 1.0100)	7-2	Won by 5 vs Ravens
9 (↓4)	Colts	0.9795 (LW × 0.9797)	6-3	Won by 6 vs Bengals
10 (↑6)	Dolphins	0.9343 (LW × 1.0407)	5-4	Won by 12 vs Titans
11 (↓2)	Giants	0.9222 (LW × 0.9523)	6-3	Lost by 13 vs Cowboys
12 (↑2)	Browns	0.9179 (LW × 0.9971)	3-6	Lost by 6 vs Jets
13 (↓1)	Chargers	0.9119 (LW × 0.9885)	4-5	Bye
14 (↓1)	Saints	0.9079 (LW × 0.9851)	6-3	Bye
15 (↑5)	Bears	0.9019 (LW × 1.0273)	6-3	Won by 14 vs Vikings
16 (↓5)	Chiefs	0.9017 (LW × 0.9460)	5-4	Lost by 20 @ Broncos
17 (↓2)	Raiders	0.8964 (LW × 0.9903)	5-4	Bye
18 (-)	Lions	0.8753 (LW × 0.9806)	2-7	Lost by 2 @ Bills
19 (↓2)	Vikings	0.8721 (LW × 0.9744)	3-6	Lost by 14 @ Bears
20 (↑2)	Buccaneers	0.8625 (LW × 0.9915)	6-3	Won by 15 vs Panthers
21 (↓2)	Rams	0.8612 (LW × 0.9798)	4-5	Lost by 3 @ 49ers
22 (↑3)	Jaguars	0.8595 (LW × 1.0238)	5-4	Won by 7 vs Texans
23 (↑1)	Bengals	0.8560 (LW × 1.0146)	2-7	Lost by 6 @ Colts
24 (↓3)	Redskins	0.8470 (LW × 0.9677)	4-5	Lost by 31 vs Eagles
25 (↑4)	Broncos	0.8412 (LW × 1.0522)	3-6	Won by 20 vs Chiefs
26 (↑1)	49ers	0.8390 (LW × 1.0243)	3-6	Won by 3 vs Rams
27 (↑1)	Seahawks	0.8389 (LW × 1.0296)	5-4	Won by 18 @ Cardinals
28 (↓5)	Texans	0.8284 (LW × 0.9581)	4-5	Lost by 7 @ Jaguars
29 (↑1)	Cowboys	0.8199 (LW × 1.0390)	2-7	Won by 13 @ Giants
30 (↑1)	Bills	0.8104 (LW × 1.0360)	1-8	Won by 2 vs Lions
31 (↓5)	Cardinals	0.7862 (LW × 0.9447)	3-6	Lost by 18 vs Seahawks
32 (-)	Panthers	0.7074 (LW × 0.9842)	1-8	Lost by 15 @ Buccaneers

Comments:

• Another tough week for the top-ranked AFC teams. The Ravens, Steelers and Titans all lost. And the Jets and Colts barely won over teams a long ways south of the 0.500 mark.

• And speaking of the NFC, that was a pretty impressive demonstration by the Eagles on MNF. The Giants are going to have to bounce back fast if they want to maintain any hope of winning the NFC East.

• Since 2001, the Vikings are 1-9 at the Bears.

• Every team in the AFC East won this week. Every team in the AFC North lost.

• Every team in the NFC West has a negative point differential right now.

NFL: Week 10 Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Cowboys @ Giants	Giants ρ=1.2271	Giants δ=12.9	Giants -14
Panthers @ Buccaneers	Buccaneers* ρ=1.2103	Buccaneers δ=7.5	Buccaneers -6½
Chiefs @ Broncos	Chiefs ρ=1.1922	Chiefs* δ=11.2	Chiefs -1
Bengals @ Colts	Colts ρ=1.1851	Colts δ=7.9	Colts -7½
Lions @ Bills	Lions ρ=1.1411	Lions* δ=12.4	Bills -2½
Titans @ Dolphins	Titans ρ=1.1262	Titans* δ=10.9	Titans -1
Jets @ Browns	Jets ρ=1.1043	Jets* δ=5.3	Jets -3
Eagles @ Redskins	Eagles ρ=1.0995	Eagles* δ=5.0	Eagles -3
Rams @ 49ers	Rams* ρ=1.0732	Rams* δ=3.3	49ers -6
Patriots @ Steelers	Steelers ρ=1.0631	Steelers δ=3.5	Steelers -4½
Ravens @ Falcons	Ravens ρ=1.0504	Ravens* δ=0.5	Falcons -1
Texans @ Jaguars	Texans ρ=1.0301	Texans* δ=5.4	Jaguars -1
Seahawks @ Cardinals	Cardinals ρ=1.0215	Seahawks* δ=0.9	Cardinals -3
Vikings @ Bears	Vikings ρ=1.0195	Vikings* δ=0.1	Vikings -1

Bye: Packers, Saints, Raiders, Chargers

Comments:

• As usual, *'s mean disagreement between the regular and VH-versions of the picking method.

• Thursday games start this week. Be sure to get your picks in on time!

• SRS-VH disagrees with SRS on all but 4 games. That seems... excessive. Well, I did say this was an experimental feature. Perhaps some kind of fudge-factor can make the VH picks more accurate.

• Hey, the Bills are favored to win a game! Even SRS-VH likes them! I suspect that would be different if the Lions had a healthy quarterback to take the field.

• The Falcons have done pretty well so far this season, but they've also lost when facing teams higher up the power rankings. Normally, I would say the Ravens win this game easily. But it can be very tough for the road team on Thursday games, and maybe that will be enough to tip things the Falcons' way.

NFL: Week 9 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 9 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Buccaneers (+9)

Nothing to add here; last week's comments can stand.

On the bubble:

Texans (+8)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Lions (-9)

A little closer this week. This team needs to learn how to win close games. And keep Matt Stafford heathly.

Browns (-9)

They've got two wins in a row now over some high-quality opponents. If their running game and defense can stay productive, Colt McCoy could be their answer at QB.

On the bubble:

Titans (-7)

NFL: Week 9 Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous Picks (10-1)

Right

Saints @ Panthers
Jets @ Lions
Giants @ Seahawks
Bears @ Bills
Chargers @ Texans
Steelers @ Bengals
Cardinals @ Vikings
Buccaneers @ Falcons
Dolphins @ Ravens
Cowboys @ Packers

Wrong

Patriots @ Browns

Did the Patriots used to have a run defense? Peyton Hillis got 184 yards and 2 touchdowns against them. Which makes it a lot easier for Colt McCoy (14/19 for 174 yards) and the rest of the Browns do their jobs.

Split (APR: 0-2 SRS: 0-2 Line: 2-0)

Chiefs (APR, SRS) @ Raiders (Line)

The Chiefs nearly had this one. They were up 3 points just before the final two-minute warning, with the Raiders at their own 25 yard line. All they needed for a win was one more stop. Instead they gave up 53 yards, including a couple 3rd-down conversions, and a long completion that got the Raiders into field goal range. This is the kind of stop good teams make, but the Chiefs aren't quite there yet.

Colts (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)

The Colts defense had no answer to the Eagles' running game. LeSeah McCoy had 95 yards rushing, and Michael Vick wasn't far behind at 74. As you might expect, that opened up the passing game too (218 yards and a TD).

Totals

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	10-3	60-54-0	52.6%
APR VH	7-6	58-56-0	50.9%
SRS	10-3	62-52-0	54.4%
SRS VH	7-6	61-52-1	53.9%
Line	12-1	70-44-0	61.4%