NFL Week 17 Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com, except for Saints @ Panthers, which is from footballlocks.com.

Game	APR	SRS	Line
San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams	49ers ρ=2.3409	49ers δ=16.97	49ers -7
Washington Redskins @ San Diego Chargers	Chargers ρ=2.0983	Chargers δ=12.40	Chargers -4
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions	Bears ρ=2.0352	Bears δ=10.09	Bears -3
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos	Broncos ρ=1.9725	Broncos δ=12.66	Broncos -13
Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks	Titans ρ=1.7942	Titans δ=7.01	Titans -4½
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills	Colts ρ=1.6145	Colts δ=12.55	Bills -7½
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans	Patriots ρ=1.5457	Patriots δ=10.78	Texans -8
Baltimore Ravens @ Oakland Raiders	Ravens ρ=1.5195	Ravens δ=19.07	Ravens -10½
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets	Jets ρ=1.5094	Jets δ=3.94	Jets -10
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Falcons ρ=1.3938	Falcons δ=10.83	Falcons -2½
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers	Saints ρ=1.2218	Saints δ=9.41	Panthers -7
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals	Packers ρ=1.1290	Packers δ=4.87	Cardinals -3
New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings	Vikings ρ=1.0836	Vikings δ=3.01	Vikings -9
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cleveland Browns	Jaguars ρ=1.0800	Jaguars δ=2.89	Browns -1
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys	Eagles ρ=1.0431	Eagles δ=1.77	Cowboys -3
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins	Dolphins ρ=1.0124	Dolphins δ=0.17	Steelers -3

Comments:

• I've mentioned this before, but it bears repeating: APR and SRS do not take into account teams that have clinched and will be resting starters.

• A combination of the Patriot's road problems and resting starters means the Texans could have a chance for the franchise's first winning season.

• The 49ers have a chance to clinch a non-losing season this week, which would be their first since 2002.

• Thanks to the Vikings loss on MNF, the Saints have clinched the #1 seed. But you would think they would want to avoid going into the playoffs on a 3-game losing streak.

NFL Week 16 Power Rankings

2009 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.

Power Rankings For Week 16

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (-)	New Orleans Saints	13-2	5.9120 (LW × 0.993)	lost by 3 vs Buccaneers
2 (↑3)	New England Patriots	10-5	5.7094 (LW × 1.116)	won by 28 vs Jaguars
3 (↑1)	San Diego Chargers	12-3	5.5786 (LW × 1.089)	won by 25 at Titans
4 (↑4)	New York Jets	8-7	5.5151 (LW × 1.333)	won by 14 at Colts
5 (↓2)	Philadelphia Eagles	11-4	5.4367 (LW × 1.015)	won by 3 vs Broncos
6 (-)	Dallas Cowboys	10-5	5.2119 (LW × 1.054)	won by 17 at Redskins
7 (↓5)	Indianapolis Colts	14-1	5.1606 (LW × 0.891)	lost by 14 vs Jets
8 (↑3)	Carolina Panthers	7-8	4.8388 (LW × 1.222)	won by 32 at Giants
9 (↑8)	Atlanta Falcons	8-7	4.3306 (LW × 1.210)	won by 28 vs Bills
10 (-)	Green Bay Packers	10-5	4.3113 (LW × 1.080)	won by 38 vs Seahawks
11 (↓4)	Minnesota Vikings	11-4	4.0997 (LW × 0.975)	lost by 6 at Bears
12 (-)	Denver Broncos	8-7	3.8249 (LW × 0.973)	lost by 3 at Eagles
13 (-)	Arizona Cardinals	10-5	3.8185 (LW × 0.973)	won by 21 vs Rams
14 (↑1)	Baltimore Ravens	8-7	3.7979 (LW × 1.029)	lost by 3 at Steelers
15 (↓6)	New York Giants	8-7	3.7834 (LW × 0.929)	lost by 32 vs Panthers
16 (-)	Miami Dolphins	7-8	3.7384 (LW × 1.013)	lost by 7 vs Texans
17 (↑3)	Houston Texans	8-7	3.6937 (LW × 1.091)	won by 7 at Dolphins
18 (-)	Pittsburgh Steelers	8-7	3.6925 (LW × 1.074)	won by 3 vs Ravens
19 (-)	Cincinnati Bengals	10-5	3.6537 (LW × 1.070)	won by 7 vs Chiefs
20 (↓6)	Tennessee Titans	7-8	3.4791 (LW × 0.912)	lost by 25 vs Chargers
21 (-)	San Francisco 49ers	7-8	3.2935 (LW × 0.977)	won by 14 vs Lions
22 (-)	Buffalo Bills	5-10	3.1965 (LW × 1.011)	lost by 28 at Falcons
23 (↑3)	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3-12	3.1071 (LW × 1.331)	won by 3 at Saints
24 (↓1)	Jacksonville Jaguars	7-8	2.9003 (LW × 0.960)	lost by 28 at Patriots
25 (↑3)	Chicago Bears	6-9	2.7670 (LW × 1.334)	won by 6 vs Vikings
26 (↑1)	Cleveland Browns	4-11	2.6855 (LW × 1.217)	won by 14 vs Raiders
27 (↓3)	Washington Redskins	4-11	2.6586 (LW × 0.931)	lost by 17 vs Cowboys
28 (↓3)	Oakland Raiders	5-10	2.4995 (LW × 0.933)	lost by 14 at Browns
29 (-)	Seattle Seahawks	5-10	1.9391 (LW × 0.944)	lost by 38 at Packers
30 (-)	Kansas City Chiefs	3-12	1.9391 (LW × 0.967)	lost by 7 at Bengals
31 (-)	St. Louis Rams	1-14	1.4069 (LW × 0.973)	lost by 21 at Cardinals
32 (-)	Detroit Lions	2-13	1.3595 (LW × 1.006)	lost by 14 at 49ers

Comments

• All the NFC playoff teams have been determined, though the precise seeding will not be determined until after next week's games.

• On the AFC side, only the Titans were eliminated this week, so 7 teams are still alive for the two wildcard spots. The Jets and Ravens are the two teams with "win-and-in" scenarios.

• The Cardinals have won 10 games in a season for the first time since 1976, when they were still in St. Louis.

• APR does not take into account when teams rest their players, and so the Colts loss costs them dearly in the standings. They would have taken over the #1 spot with a 7 point win.

• And the Jets "win" over the previously unbeaten Colts pushes them to even more ridiculous hights. Although with the Saints, Vikings, and Colts all losing, the top is looking a little soft anyway.

• The Panthers get another big upset win, and climb even higher in the rankings.

• The Bengals are 1-3 against teams ranked higher than #14 this week. Bengal fans may be well advised to prepare for a quick exit from the playoffs.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Bengals (+12)

Another week, another close game against a bad team for the Bengals. At least they won this time.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Panthers (-11)

The Panthers add another upset win to this year's resumé. Since they stopped turning the ball over on offense, they've looked a lot better.

Jets (-10)

As mentioned above, APR probably giving them too much credit for a win over a Colts team that wasn't trying. On the other hand, they did get a win, which is more than they can say for last week.

Patriots (-8)

The Patriots are another team benefitting from APR's love of big wins. Yeah, they beat out the playoff wannabe Jaguars by 4 touchdowns. But the Patriots are just 2-5 on the road. That's not good for the playoffs, and that's not a top-5 team.

NFL Week 16 Pick Results

2009 Navigation Links

Pick results for week 16.

Unanimous picks (8-5)

Correctly picked:

Rams @ Cardinals
Lions @ 49ers
Seahawks @ Packers
Cowboys @ Redskins
Chiefs @ Bengals
Jaguars @ Patriots
Broncos @ Eagles
Bills @ Falcons

Not so much:

Texans @ Dolphins

In the first half, the Dolphins defense had a major breakdown: the Texans had five drives, and scored on every one of them. The Dolphins were able to shut out the Texans in the second half, but their offense just wasn't able to dig out of the hole the first half had left them in.

Buccaneers @ Saints

Something has gone wrong with the Saints offense. They scored at least 30 points in 8 of their first 13 games, and never less than 24. Now, for the second week in a row, they've only made it to 17 points. That's bad news for a team that's only held their opponents under 17 points 3 times.

Panthers @ Giants

The Giants just failed on both sides of the ball. The Panthers scored on their first four drives. While the Giants didn't score until late in the third quarter, and by then the Panthers had things well in hand.

Jets @ Colts

The Colts started pulling their starters towards the end of the third quarter. Manning's replacement, Curtis Painter, was a one-man disaster: a fumble returned for a TD, an interception, and 4 completions on 11 throws helped give the Jets 19 unanswered points.

Vikings @ Bears

The Vikings' offensive funk continued for the first two quarters of this game. The only first-half drive they had that showed any promise ended in a fumble. The Vikings offense finally got going in the second half, but several long kick returns and a career game by receiver Devin Aromashodu kept the Bears in the game until a critical late fumble recovery gave them the chance to win.

Split Picks (APR 1-2, SRS 1-2, Line 2-1)

Chargers (ARP, SRS) @ Titans (Line)

One of the by-products of the Colts and Saints long unbeaten streaks is that the Chargers have managed to win 10 games in a row and clinch the AFC's #2 seed more or less under the radar. At this point, they've got to be favorites to advance to the AFC Championship game, and perhaps the Super Bowl as well.

Raiders (APR, SRS) @ Browns (Line)

For the second week in a row, Jerome Harrison is a big part of the reason the Browns come up with a win: 148 yards rushing. Throw in three interceptiosn from Charlie Frye, and that's about all it took for the Browns to get their third win in a row.

Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)

The Ravens had 11 penalties for 113 yards. A couple really costly ones was a block in the back on an interception return that nullified a touchdown (the Ravens settled for a field goal), and a holding call that nullified a McGahee touchdown run (the Ravens punted on that drive). Those two alone represent an 11-point swing in favor of the Steelers.

Standings:

	This Week	Overall	%
APR	9-7	143-81	63.8%
SRS	9-7	143-81	63.8%
Line	10-6	152-72	67.9%
Unanimous	8-5	116-45	72.0%

New power rankings, and Week 17 picks to come.

NFL Week 16 Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com.

Picks for week 16.

Game	APR	SRS	Line
St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals	Cardinals ρ=2.7143	Cardinals δ=17.67	Cardinals -14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints	Saints ρ=2.5513	Saints δ=20.69	Saints -14
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers	49ers ρ=2.4941	49ers δ=14.90	49ers -12
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears	Vikings ρ=2.0279	Vikings δ=11.32	Vikings -7
Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers	Packers ρ=1.9427	Packers δ=11.47	Packers -14
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins	Cowboys ρ=1.7314	Cowboys δ=9.73	Cowboys -7
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals	Bengals ρ=1.7040	Bengals δ=12.62	Bengals -14
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.6923	Patriots δ=15.60	Patriots -7½
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts	Colts ρ=1.4004	Colts δ=4.82	Colts -5½
Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles	Eagles ρ=1.3638	Eagles δ=5.06	Eagles -7
San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans	Chargers ρ=1.3428	Chargers δ=7.26	Titans -3
Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns	Raiders ρ=1.2140	Raiders δ=0.09	Browns -2
Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons	Falcons ρ=1.1326	Falcons δ=6.32	Falcons -8
Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins	Dolphins ρ=1.0903	Dolphins δ=0.29	Dolphins -3
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers	Ravens ρ=1.0739	Ravens δ=8.14	Steelers -3
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants	Giants ρ=1.0281	Giants δ=4.52	Giants -7

Comments:

• Reports are the Bills will start Brian Brohm at quarterback on Sunday. He's the guy who lost out the backup job in Green Bay, and was demoted to the practice squad at the beginning of the season. Adjust your expectations accordingly.

• For the third time in four weeks, the Vikings play a prime-time road game against a lesser opponent. Things are sure to get even uglier for Childress and Favre if they can't put together a solid win in this game.

• There are a number of AFC matchups with playoff implications this week. The Patriots can clinch the AFC North with a win (which would also likely knock the Jaguars out of contention). But the Ravens and Broncos both have tough opponents, which could open the door for one of those 7-7 teams to sneak into a wildcard spot.

• All three of the NFC wildcard wannabe teams are favored to win this week, although the Giants have the toughest matchup. Next week won't be any easier, when they travel to Minnesota to face a Vikings squad that is sure to be looking for some momentum going into the playoffs.

NFL Week 15 Power Rankings

2009 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.

Power Rankings For Week 15

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (↑1)	New Orleans Saints	13-1	5.9564 (LW × 1.027)	lost by 7 vs Cowboys
2 (↓1)	Indianapolis Colts	14-0	5.7940 (LW × 0.912)	won by 4 at Jaguars
3 (↑4)	Philadelphia Eagles	10-4	5.3586 (LW × 1.255)	won by 14 vs 49ers
4 (-)	San Diego Chargers	11-3	5.1221 (LW × 1.106)	won by 3 vs Bengals
5 (-)	New England Patriots	9-5	5.1146 (LW × 1.107)	won by 7 at Bills
6 (↑9)	Dallas Cowboys	9-5	4.9438 (LW × 1.384)	won by 7 at Saints
7 (↓4)	Minnesota Vikings	11-3	4.2061 (LW × 0.866)	lost by 19 at Panthers
8 (↑3)	New York Jets	7-7	4.1374 (LW × 1.034)	lost by 3 vs Falcons
9 (↑13)	New York Giants	8-6	4.0710 (LW × 1.335)	won by 33 at Redskins
10 (↓2)	Green Bay Packers	9-5	3.9921 (LW × 0.956)	lost by 1 at Steelers
11 (↑12)	Carolina Panthers	6-8	3.9595 (LW × 1.365)	won by 19 vs Vikings
12 (-)	Denver Broncos	8-6	3.9291 (LW × 1.029)	lost by 1 vs Raiders
13 (↓7)	Arizona Cardinals	9-5	3.9255 (LW × 0.882)	won by 7 at Lions
14 (↓5)	Tennessee Titans	7-7	3.8144 (LW × 0.949)	won by 3 vs Dolphins
15 (↑1)	Baltimore Ravens	8-6	3.6920 (LW × 1.067)	won by 24 vs Bears
16 (↓2)	Miami Dolphins	7-7	3.6909 (LW × 1.027)	lost by 3 at Titans
17 (↑4)	Atlanta Falcons	7-7	3.5796 (LW × 1.168)	won by 3 at Jets
18 (↑1)	Pittsburgh Steelers	7-7	3.4380 (LW × 1.080)	won by 1 vs Packers
19 (↓2)	Cincinnati Bengals	9-5	3.4161 (LW × 1.010)	lost by 3 at Chargers
20 (↓7)	Houston Texans	7-7	3.3854 (LW × 0.887)	won by 3 at Rams
21 (↓11)	San Francisco 49ers	6-8	3.3707 (LW × 0.840)	lost by 14 at Eagles
22 (↓2)	Buffalo Bills	5-9	3.1606 (LW × 1.011)	lost by 7 vs Patriots
23 (↓5)	Jacksonville Jaguars	7-7	3.0223 (LW × 0.946)	lost by 4 vs Colts
24 (-)	Washington Redskins	4-10	2.8554 (LW × 1.056)	lost by 33 vs Giants
25 (↑2)	Oakland Raiders	5-9	2.6788 (LW × 1.262)	won by 1 at Broncos
26 (↑4)	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2-12	2.3347 (LW × 1.303)	won by 17 at Seahawks
27 (↑2)	Cleveland Browns	3-11	2.2065 (LW × 1.151)	won by 7 at Chiefs
28 (↓2)	Chicago Bears	5-9	2.0742 (LW × 0.930)	lost by 24 at Ravens
29 (↓4)	Seattle Seahawks	5-9	2.0549 (LW × 0.838)	lost by 17 vs Buccaneers
30 (↓2)	Kansas City Chiefs	3-11	2.0048 (LW × 1.011)	lost by 7 vs Browns
31 (-)	St. Louis Rams	1-13	1.4462 (LW × 0.971)	lost by 3 vs Texans
32 (-)	Detroit Lions	2-12	1.3515 (LW × 1.009)	lost by 7 vs Cardinals

Comments

• In spite of their loss, the Saints actually gain in power this week, thanks in part to three upset wins by the other NFC South teams.

• The Colts, on the other hand, get no help from the teams they've beaten to help balance out their close win over the mid-level Jaguars.

• The Cowboys still have a couple tough division games left, but for the first time since mid-November, they had a solid win over a quality opponent.

• The Cowboys jump in the rankings also indirectly makes the Giants look better, and so they jump from the back of the tightly-clustered middle group to the front.

• Somehow the AFC playoff race is even tighter than before. Six 7-7 teams are all just a game behind the two would-be wildcard teams, and two division titles are still open.

• The Titans have now won more games than any other team to start 0-6 since 1978. And they're still alive for a wildcard spot, although their tie-breaker status puts them behind four of the other wanna-be teams.

• The Rams are now the only remaining team without at least two wins. Given their remaining schedule (at Cardinals, vs 49ers), they are likely to stay that way. I wonder if Ndamukong Suh likes St. Louis?

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Bengals (+12)

Everything I said in this spot about the Bengals last week still applies, except that they are now 2-3 in their last 5. (Of course, the same things also apply to the Giants, but they got a big boost from the win-happy APR.)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Jets (-11)

More evidence, I think, that the current configuration of APR is giving too much weight to wins, and not enough to losses. The Jets are nowhere near a top-10 team at this point.

Panthers (-10)

The Panthers are benefitting from the same halo effect, but at least they got a win this week. Giving the Vikings just their third loss of the season is worth something.

NFL Week 15 Pick Results

2009 Navigation Links

Pick results for week 15.

Unanimous picks (8-5)

Correctly picked:

Cardinals @ Lions
Texans @ Rams
Colts @ Jaguars
Bears @ Ravens
Patriots @ Bills
Bengals @ Chargers
Giants @ Redkskins
49ers @ Eagles

Not so much:

Cowboys @ Saints

The Cowboys defense came up big in this game. Besides holding the Saints to just 3 points for four quarters, they came up with an interception, 4 sacks, and 2 fumble recoveries (the last one ending the Saints come-back attempt).

Raiders @ Broncos

It used to be rushing was always the big weakness of the Broncos defense. And Sunday, it was again. Even the Raiders can get a win when you give them 241 yards rushing.

Vikings @ Panthers

The Vikings offense really never came close to sustaining a drive in this game. Their missed field goal and one touchdown both came on a short fields. And by fourth quarter, the Vikings defense was worn down enough that they started giving up score after score. After their second flop in three weeks, the Vikings have to be feeling a little apprehensive about the playoffs.

Buccaneers @ Seahawks

The Seahawks offense just couldn't move the ball all game long, even when they weren't giving the ball away. Matt Hasselbeck's first two interceptions gave the Buccaneers short fields for their first field goal and touchdown. A short punt and bad coverage gave the Buccaneers another short field for their second touchdown, and by then they were actually in control of the game.

Falcons @ Jets

Three failed field goal attemps (one botched snap, one missed, and one blocked) add up to 9 lost points for the Jets. The Jets offense didn't exactly light things up in this game, but they did get into field goal range three times, and that should've been enough to win the game.

Split Picks (APR 1-2, SRS 1-2, Line 2-1)

Packers (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)

How exactly do you give up 503 yards passing to Ben Roethlisberger? That's really the game, right there.

Dolphins (SRS) @ Titans (APR, Line)

The Dolphins very nearly did it. But interceptions, and a final critical 15 yard roughness penalty cost them the game.

Browns (SRS) @ Chiefs (APR, Line)

Two kick return touchdowns by Josh Cribbs certainly didn't hurt. The fact that the Chiefs couldn't stop Jerome Harrison (286 yards rushing, 3 TD) made a big difference too.

Standings:

	This Week	Overall	%
APR	9-7	134-74	64.4%
SRS	9-7	134-74	64.4%
Line	10-6	142-66	68.3%
Unanimous	8-5	108-40	73.0%

New power rankings, and Week 16 picks to come.

NFL Week 15 Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com.

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions	Cardinals ρ=3.3245	Cardinals δ=17.26	Cardinals -11½
Houston Texans @ St. Louis Rams	Texans ρ=2.5622	Texans δ=19.48	Texans -12½
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars	Colts ρ=1.9888	Colts δ=16.15	Colts -3
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos	Broncos ρ=1.7992	Broncos δ=14.54	Broncos -14
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers	Vikings ρ=1.6752	Vikings δ=10.99	Vikings -9
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints	Saints ρ=1.6240	Saints δ=9.75	Saints -7
Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens	Ravens ρ=1.5513	Ravens δ=12.51	Ravens -10
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills	Patriots ρ=1.4786	Patriots δ=15.51	Patriots -7
Cincinnati Bengals @ San Diego Chargers	Chargers ρ=1.3694	Chargers δ=3.43	Chargers -6½
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks	Seahawks ρ=1.3677	Seahawks δ=4.58	Seahawks -7
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers	Packers ρ=1.3106	Packers δ=4.39	Steelers -1
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets	Jets ρ=1.3057	Jets δ=3.32	Jets -6
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins	Giants ρ=1.1274	Giants δ=5.26	Giants -3
Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans	Titans ρ=1.1177	Dolphins δ=2.63	Titans -4
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles	Eagles ρ=1.0645	Eagles δ=4.19	Eagles -9
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs	Chiefs ρ=1.0336	Browns δ=0.04	Chiefs -2

Comments:

• The Raiders have signed J.P. Losman. It looks like its either him or Charlie Frye to start at the Broncos on Sunday. Either way, it's hard to imagine it will be worse than JaMarcus Russell's second-half outing against the Redskins.

• The Bronocs really need to take care of business this week, to stay at the top of that long list of AFC wildcard contenders, and to keep the pressure on the Chargers.

• The Jaguars currently win a 4-way tie to hold the AFC's #6 seed. But with the Colts this week and the Patriots next, they're going to have to work to stay at the head of that long list of contenders.

• I suppose SNF is keeping Vikings @ Panthers so they can feature the media's favorite 40-year-old quarterback again. I wonder how happy they're going to be when the Vikings are ahead 3 scores by halftime, and everyone turns away. (Of course, I thought the same thing when they had Vikings at Cardinals...)

• The sports books aren't real sure about Packers @ Steelers. At this writing, one actually has Packers -1, but four others favor the Steelers, so that's what is listed above.