NFL: Week 8 Game Picks

Week 8! Wow, how did that happen already?

All line values are taken from yahoo.com, and are for comparison purposes only.

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Steelers @ Saints	Steelers ρ=1.3033	Steelers* δ=14.5	Steelers -1
Bills @ Chiefs	Chiefs ρ=1.2678	Chiefs δ=15.0	Chiefs -7½
Panthers @ Rams	Rams ρ=1.2115	Rams δ=8.1	Rams -3
Titans @ Chargers	Titans ρ=1.2081	Titans* δ=10.6	Chargers -3½
Packers @ Jets	Jets ρ=1.1671	Jets δ=4.4	Jets -6
Vikings @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.1447	Patriots δ=5.6	Patriots -5
Texans @ Colts	Colts ρ=1.1249	Colts δ=5.0	Colts -5½
Jaguars @ Cowboys	Cowboys* ρ=1.0831	Cowboys δ=10.9	Cowboys -6½
Dolphins @ Bengals	Dolphins ρ=1.0591	Dolphins* δ=2.3	Bengals -1½
Broncos @ 49ers	Broncos ρ=1.0544	Broncos* δ=1.9	Broncos -1
Redskins @ Lions	Redskins* ρ=1.0488	Lions δ=1.6	Lions -2½
Seahawks @ Raiders	Seahawks* ρ=1.0177	Raiders δ=2.0	Raiders -1½
Buccaneers @ Cardinals	Buccaneers ρ=1.0049	Buccaneers* δ=3.8	Cardinals -3

Bye: Falcons, Ravens, Bears, Browns, Giants, Eagles

What the '*'s Mean:

I've added some new information to the game picks. All picks listed above are generated as usual—rankings are computed for each team using all games played, and the team with the better rank is picked to win.

However, I've also extended the code that computes APR and SRS to compute Home/Visitor splits on their respective power rankings. Picks are also made using the "Visitor" power of the road team and the "Home" power of the home team. The '*' listed above indicate instances where the Home/Visitor pick method disagrees with the straight-power method.

By the Home/Visitor method (and using the week 7 data), the Seahawks, Rams, and Colts are the worst road teams of the league. The Texans, Cowboys, and Titans are the worst home teams.

This is still in the experimental stages, and while I'm hoping it will allow APR (and SRS) to eventually make more accurate picks, this is still very much a beta-level feature.

Comments:

• Steelers -1? Ben Roethlisberger did look a little rusty last week, but unless the Saints have a big turn-around this week, the Steelers should win easily.

• Chargers -3½?! Their run defense has looked OK so far, but they haven't faced Chris Johnson yet, either. And, as observed above, the Titans have done quite well on the road this year.

• Bengals are favored? They did beat the Ravens in week 2, but that's the only spark of life they've showed all season, and that's getting to be a while ago now...

NFL: Week 7 APR vs ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 7 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Saints (+11)

ESPN is finally starting to move the Saints down, but APR really penalized them their disaster of a game at home against the formerly 1-win Browns.

On the bubble:

Buccaneers (+8), Cardinals (+7)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Nobody outside the -8 spot threshold

On the bubble:

Cowboys, Chargers, Lions, Browns (-7)

Way more agreement than there's ever been this early in the season. I suppose that's a good thing...

NFL: Week 7 Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous Picks (7-4)

Right

Bills @ Ravens
Jaguars @ Chiefs
Bengals @ Falcons
Eagles @ Titans
Cardinals @ Seahawks
Vikings @ Packers
Steelers @ Dolphins

Wrong

49ers @ Panthers

Alex Smith left the game early in the second half, and backup David Carr was not effective in replacement. Other than that, there's not much to say about this game, except it was two bad teams playing, and (barring a tie) one of them had to win.

Raiders @ Broncos

If anything went right for the Broncos in this game, it's not apparent from the recaps. When the Raiders had the ball on offense, the Broncos couldn't stop them. When the Broncos had the ball on offense, they were utterly ineffective. It was so bad, the Broncos were down 38-0 before they got their second first down of the game.

Browns @ Saints

You know how I keep saying the Saints are not a top-10 team? Yeah, they're not. And when Drew Brees starts forcing passes trying to make things happen, they're not even a top-20 team.

Redskins @ Bears

Somehow (at least when they win) the Redskins seem to get the very worst performance their opponent can muster, and this game was the best example yet. The Bears offense had an awful game. In their first six drives, they had just one first down. Six of their final seven drives ended in turnovers. Jay Cutler was sacked 4 times, intercepted 4 times, and lost a fumble. The Redskins' offense didn't have much of a game either, but it was enough for the win.

Split (APR: 2-1 SRS: 2-1 Line: 1-2)

Rams (APR, SRS) @ Buccaneers (Line)

For the 6th time in 7 games, the Rams' defense held their opponent to 18 points or less. The problem was, for the 5th time in 7 games, the Rams offense couldn't score more than 17 points.

Patriots (APR, SRS) @ Chargers(Line)

From APR's point of view, the Chargers are a team with just two home wins over very weak teams, and that's what they looked like for most of this game. A late rally nearly made the Patriots defensive collapse (and a failed late 4th-and-1 try) the story of this game, but the Chargers couldn't get it done.

Giants (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)

The Giants lost the ball 5 times. If Romo had been able to finish the game, the Cowboys should have won easily. As it was, all those turnovers allowed the Cowboys to close to within 6 points before time finally ran out.

Totals

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	9-5	44-44	50.0%
SRS	9-5	44-44	50.0%
Line	8-6	61-43	58.7%

NFL: Week 7 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Steelers	1.1009 (LW × 1.0046)	5-1	Won by 1 @ Dolphins
2 (-)	Jets	1.0823 (LW × 0.9918)	5-1	Bye
3 (↑1)	Titans	1.0560 (LW × 1.0224)	5-2	Won by 18 vs Eagles
4 (↑1)	Patriots	1.0339 (LW × 1.0050)	5-1	Won by 3 @ Chargers
5 (↓2)	Ravens	1.0259 (LW × 0.9583)	5-2	Won by 3 vs Bills
6 (-)	Colts	1.0146 (LW × 1.0015)	4-2	Bye
7 (↑2)	Chiefs	0.9737 (LW × 1.0288)	4-2	Won by 22 vs Jaguars
8 (↓1)	Falcons	0.9616 (LW × 1.0002)	5-2	Won by 7 vs Bengals
9 (↑1)	Giants	0.9570 (LW × 1.0253)	5-2	Won by 6 @ Cowboys
10 (↓2)	Eagles	0.9288 (LW × 0.9767)	4-3	Lost by 18 @ Titans
11 (-)	Packers	0.9274 (LW × 1.0138)	4-3	Won by 4 vs Vikings
12 (↑3)	Dolphins	0.9061 (LW × 1.0183)	3-3	Lost by 1 vs Steelers
13 (↓1)	Vikings	0.9031 (LW × 0.9916)	2-4	Lost by 4 @ Packers
14 (↑2)	Texans	0.9020 (LW × 1.0243)	4-2	Bye
15 (↑4)	Redskins	0.8973 (LW × 1.0293)	4-3	Won by 3 @ Bears
16 (↓3)	Bears	0.8855 (LW × 0.9859)	4-3	Lost by 3 vs Redskins
17 (↑5)	Chargers	0.8742 (LW × 1.0124)	2-5	Lost by 3 vs Patriots
18 (↑2)	Seahawks	0.8739 (LW × 1.0062)	4-2	Won by 12 vs Cardinals
19 (↓1)	Cowboys	0.8700 (LW × 0.9980)	1-5	Lost by 6 vs Giants
20 (↑1)	Rams	0.8678 (LW × 1.0029)	3-4	Lost by 1 @ Buccaneers
21 (↑5)	Browns	0.8659 (LW × 1.0487)	2-5	Won by 13 @ Saints
22 (↑6)	Raiders	0.8588 (LW × 1.0668)	3-4	Won by 45 @ Broncos
23 (-)	Lions	0.8556 (LW × 0.9992)	1-5	Bye
24 (-)	Bengals	0.8555 (LW × 1.0080)	2-4	Lost by 7 @ Falcons
25 (↓8)	Saints	0.8447 (LW × 0.9610)	4-3	Lost by 13 vs Browns
26 (↑3)	Buccaneers	0.8306 (LW × 1.0325)	4-2	Won by 1 vs Rams
27 (↓13)	Broncos	0.8272 (LW × 0.9275)	2-5	Lost by 45 vs Raiders
28 (↓3)	Cardinals	0.8266 (LW × 0.9858)	3-3	Lost by 12 @ Seahawks
29 (↓2)	Jaguars	0.8033 (LW × 0.9817)	3-4	Lost by 22 @ Chiefs
30 (-)	49ers	0.7845 (LW × 0.9861)	1-6	Lost by 3 @ Panthers
31 (-)	Bills	0.7680 (LW × 1.0540)	0-6	Lost by 3 @ Ravens
32 (-)	Panthers	0.7163 (LW × 1.0345)	1-5	Won by 3 vs 49ers

Comments:

• The AFC continues to dominate the top of the rankings, and rightly so. I have to wonder how many NFC teams could beat even the Chiefs right now, especially at Arrowhead stadium.

• The Vikings easily the highest-ranked 4-loss team. But 3 of their losses are by 5 points or less (and they were within 1 of the Jets until a late pick-6 sealed that loss).

• Wow, how bad are the Giants? They won their game, but 3 interceptions and 2 lost fumbles does not bode well for them down the stretch.

• Are the Buccaneers really the best team in the NFC? APR sure doesn't think so. The teams they've beaten are a combined 8-18 right now, and none have a winning record. Their 25-point loss to the Saints makes them the only team (so far) to lose to the Saints by more than 5 points. They are better than last year, but they've had a pretty soft schedule to open up the season.

• Big movers: Broncos (↓13), Saints (↓8), Raiders (↑6).

NFL: Week 7 Game Picks

All line values from yahoo.com, except Chiefs @ Jaguars, which is from footballlocks.com. Line values are for comparison purposes only.

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Bills @ Ravens	Ravens ρ=1.4692	Ravens δ=19.8	Ravens -13
Steelers @ Dolphins	Steelers ρ=1.2316	Steelers δ=15.5	Steelers -3
Patriots @ Chargers	Patriots ρ=1.1914	Patriots δ=7.6	Chargers -3
Jaguars @ Chiefs	Chiefs ρ=1.1567	Chiefs δ=9.5	Chiefs -10
49ers @ Panthers	49ers ρ=1.1490	49ers δ=5.0	49ers -3
Bengals @ Falcons	Falcons ρ=1.1327	Falcons δ=5.8	Falcons -3
Raiders @ Broncos	Broncos ρ=1.1079	Broncos δ=9.2	Broncos -7
Eagles @ Titans	Titans ρ=1.0862	Titans δ=6.9	Titans -3
Rams @ Buccaneers	Rams ρ=1.0756	Rams δ=3.2	Buccaneers -2½
Giants @ Cowboys	Giants ρ=1.0707	Giants δ=3.2	Cowboys -3
Browns @ Saints	Saints ρ=1.0644	Saints δ=1.3	Saints -13½
Cardinals @ Seahawks	Seahawks ρ=1.0359	Seahawks δ=10.6	Seahawks -6
Redskins @ Bears	Bears ρ=1.0303	Bears δ=1.4	Bears -3
Vikings @ Packers	Packers ρ=1.0043	Packers δ=2.1	Packers -3

Bye: Lions, Texans, Colts, Jets

Comments:

• 11 unanimous games this week. APR and SRS pick the same way in all games.

• This week is probably the Panthers' best chance to avoid an 0-16 season. It's also the 49ers best chance to get a road win this year.

• If the Saints really have turned things around, this is a game they have to win. The Browns have been a tough opponent this season, and Colt McCoy is bound to look better against the Saints defense.

• Chiefs -10 seems like a lot for a team that really hasn't proven itself yet. On the other hand, the Jaguars are scrambling for a healthy quarterback, and they've given up at least 26 points in every game since week 1.

• Possible upset: Redskins @ Bears. If the Seahawks could mostly keep the Bears away from the endzone, it's not a stretch to think the Redskins defense could do a good job of shutting down the Bears too. On the other hand, they will really have to shut the Bears down—the Redskins have only scored more than 17 points twice this season.

NFL: Week 6 APR vs ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 6 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams that are at least 9 positions apart are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Saints (+11)

The Saints finally get a solid win in the regular season. APR moves them up 9 spots, but it's going to take one win over a weak team before APR will put them near the top 10.

Buccaneers (+10)

APR drops the Buccaneers 17 spots from last week, which may be a bit harsh. But the teams they beat are a combined 3-13. Yeah, they're still 3-2, but if they make it to 8 wins this year, it will be thanks mostly to a very soft schedule.

On the bubble:

Cardinals, Texans (+7)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Nobody outside the -8 spot threshold

On the bubble:

Cowboys, Broncos (-8)

NFL: Week 6 Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Unanimous Picks (4-3)

Right

Jets @ Broncos
Colts @ Redskins
Titans @ Jaguars
Browns @ Steelers

Wrong

Seahawks @ Bears

Six more sacks for Cutler. No surprise the Bears only had 3 scoring drives. The Seahawks didn't exactly light it up (they punted 10 times) but two sustained drives for touchdowns, and a short field for a third, were enough to put them past the Bears.

Dolphins @ Packers

The effect of injuries continue to mount for the Packers. Offense can't sustain drives to score points, defense can't get off the field to get the ball back to the offense.

Chargers @ Rams

There's plenty of blame to go around for the Chargers. Special teams gave up a long kick return and a blocked field goal try (turned into a couple of field goals by the Rams). The defense gave up a couple long touchdown drives. And that was more than the offense (missing Antonio Gates for most of the game) was able to overcome.

Split (APR: 2-5 SRS: 0-7 Line: 7-0)

Every split pick goes for the home team.

Falcons (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)

Once they got going (and perhaps not coincidentally, after DeSean Jackson was knocked out of the game), the Falcons played the Eagles pretty evenly. Unfortunately, the Falcons were down 21-0 before they got their first score, and they didn't have enough to get out of that hole.

Chiefs (APR, SRS) @ Texans (Line)

Just a defensive collapse on the part of the Chiefs. They were ahead 21-7 halfway through the 3rd quarter. After that, the Texans outscored them 28-10. It was, for the most part, sustained drive after sustained drive that the Chiefs just couldn't seem to stop.

Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Patriots (Line)

What happened to the Ravens' defense? Starting late in the 3rd quarter, they allowed the Patriots 3 sustained drives which resulted in 13 points scored. That's really not good for a team whose offense is mostly not real explosive.

Buccaneers (APR, SRS) @ Saints (Line)

The Saints finally get their high-scoring offense on track. For the first time (in the regular season) since week 12 last year, the Saints win a game by more than 5 points.

Raiders (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)

Jason Campbell had a really bad day. 8/21 for 83 yards and 2 interceptions bad. For all that, the Raiders still had the lead at half time, and were within one score until half way through the 4th quarter. That's probably bad news for the 49ers if they need that weak an opponent to get a win.

Lions (SRS) @ Giants (APR, Line)

The Lions would be a lot more dangerous if they could protect their quarterback. Their 2nd-string QB Shaun Hill left this game in the second quarter with a broken arm, so their 3rd-string QB Drew Stranton had to finish the game.

Cowboys (SRS) @ Vikings (APR, Line)

The Vikings offense fell short of 200 yards gained. Their longest drive was just 49 yards. Favre completed just 14 passes. But thanks to all the Cowboys' mistakes (turnovers, failed return coverage, and penalties) that was all the Vikings needed to squeak out a win.

Totals

	This Week	This Season	%
APR	6- 8	35-39	47.3%
SRS	4-10	35-39	47.3%
Line	11- 3	53-37	58.9%