APR's top 25 regular season upsets: #12

...and we're back!

#12: 1983 Redskins 47, Packers 48 (ρ=1.3044)

Redskins' season: finished 14-2, clinched the #1 seed in the NFC, and lost to the Raiders in Super Bowl XVIII.

Packers' season: finished 8-8. Head coach Bart Starr was fired after the end of the season.

What happened: remember how I said a few weeks ago that sometimes a good offense needs help from its defense? This is the second installment of that series.

This was a Redskins team with a powerhouse offense—they scored 27 or more points in all but 3 games that season, and it was a big reason they returned to the Super Bowl that year. The problem for the 1983 Redskins was (a lot of the time, anyway) their defense wasn't anything special—they gave up 20 or more points in 10 games.

The Packers actually had a decent offense in '82 and '83, especially considering it consisted of quarterback Lynn Dickie, wide receiver James Lofton, and a bunch of other guys who went on to well-deserved obscurity. But the Packers had one of the worst defenses of the league that year, and most games were a race to see if the offense could score more points than the defense gave up.

So the Redskins came into Lambeau field, probably expecting a relatively easy win, and instead found they were facing an offense that was able to match them score-for-score throughout the game, and couldn't quite manage to have the lead when time expired.

Also of note: this game remains one of the highest scoring in the NFL, and holds the record for most points scored on Monday Night Football.

Next week: the Cowboys lose to one of the worst teams in recent history, and it costs them a spot in the playoffs.

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: Bye week

Real life™ intrudes. I have too much to do this week to give the next post the attention it deserves. I should be able to get to upset #12 next week. Until then, thanks for reading!

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: #13

#13: 2003 Packers 13, Cardinals 20 (ρ=1.2979)

Packers' season: finished 10-6, clinched the #4 seed in the NFC, and lost to the Eagles in the Divisional round of the playoffs (the infamous "4th and 26" game).

Cardinals' season: finished 4-12. Head Coach Dave McGinnis was fired after the end of the season.

What happened: this is another game where you really need to look at the game book. Specifically, two key stats: the gametime temperature was 102°F (39°C) and the gametime humidity was 7%. I can tell you from personal experience, being outside and active in this kind of weather is a combination that can kick your butt, especially if you're not ready for it.

The problem is, you're sweating like it's 102° (which is to say, a lot). But because the humidity is so low, sweat pretty much evaporates immediatly. Unless you're really diligent to stay hydrated and replenish your electrolytes, you can really get dehydrated easily and be wiped out almost before you know it.

With that in mind, it's pretty clear what happened—the Packers weren't ready to play in the heat. Their defense couldn't get off the field, allowing the Cardinals to control the ball for the entire second half. And the Packer offense, which scored 30 or more points ten times that season, barely managed 13 against a very unremarkable Cardinals defense.

Also of note: the Packers trailed the Vikings for the NFC North division title for most of the season. The loss to the Cardinals very nearly cost them a spot in the playoffs. But in the closing moments of week 17, the Cardinals beat the Vikings on a last-second, 4th down touchdown. That Vikings loss gave the division to the Packers.

Next week: the Packers again, this time in a track meet at Lambeau field.

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: #14

#14: 1979 Falcons 28, Chargers 26 (ρ=1.2961)

Falcons' season: finished 6-10 in Leeman Bennett's 3rd season (and first losing season) as head coach..

Chargers' season: finished 12-4, clinched the #1 seed in the AFC, and lost to the Houston Oilers in the Divisional round of the playoffs.

What happened: this was Don Coryell's first full season as head coach of the Chargers, and they were already showing signs of the famed Air Coryell offense: Dan Fouts had 324 yards passing in this game, just 2 yards short of his season high. But part of the problem for the Chargers was all those passing yards didn't translate into a lot of points. 26 points was the median score for the Chargers in 1979.

Still, that could have been enough: they were facing a pretty bad Falcons' offense, that only made it past 25 points in 4 games all season. Unfortunately, this was one of those games, largely because the Chargers' defense gave up a season-high 375 yards to the Falcons. The Falcons were able to translate those yards into enough points to out-score the Chargers even in their home stadium.

Also of note: this is the 3rd of 4 games on the list where the home team lost.

Next week: a high-scoring offense withers on the sun-baked caliche of Sun Devil Stadium.

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: #15

#15: 2009
Week 6: Eagles 9, Raiders 13 (ρ=1.2855)

Eagles' season: finished 11-5, clinched the #6 seed in the NFC, and lost to the Cowboys in the Wildcard round..

Raiders' season: finished 5-11 in Tom Cable's first full season as head coach.

What happened: the 2009 Eagles won and lost by their offense. When they scored 24 or more points, they won, and when they didn't, they lost. But they were facing the Raiders, who had a pretty bad defense in 2009—every opponent they faced (except for one) scored a touchdown on them.

The problem was, the Eagles were that one exception. Looking at the stats (24 incomplete passes, 6 sacks, and only 67 yards rushing), it looks very much like a pretty epic break-down of the Eagles offensive line.

Also of note: the Eagles and Chiefs were the only opponents the Raiders faced in 2009 that didn't score at least 17 points. I also wrote about this game in the 2009 Week 6 Pick Results, as well as the top upsets for 2009.

Next week: sometimes even a good offense needs help from
the defense (part 1).

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: #16

#16: 1976
Week 11: 1976 Cowboys 10, Falcons 17 (ρ=1.2844)

Cowboys' season: finished 11-3, clinched the #2 seed of the NFC, but lost to the Rams in the Divisonal round of the playoffs.

Falcons' season: finished 4-10. Head coach Marion Campbell resigned 5 games into the season.

What happened: the 1976 Cowboys didn't have a high-scoring offense. They scored under 21 points in 8 of their games that season. On a related note, the Cowboys' offense also lost the ball 3 or more times in half their regular season games (including 4 turnovers in this one).

Quarterback Roger Staubach didn't have a great season in 1976, but this was one of his worst performances: a 46% completion rate, 3 interceptions, 5.6 yards per pass attempt—it's no wonder the Cowboys only scored 10 points in this game.

The only question about this game is what happened at the end. Through 3 quarters, the Cowboys had managed to pitch a 10-0 shut-out of the Falcons. In spite of their poor offensive play, all the Cowboys needed was one more quarter of shutting down the Falcons, and they could've escaped with a win. Instead, the Falcons scored 17 fourth-quarter points, and got their upset.

Also of note: the 1976 Cowboys were in the middle of an extraordinary streak of success: they had consecutive winning seasons for 20 years, from 1966 to 1985, including 18 playoff appearances, and 5 Super Bowl appearances (winning twice).

Next week: the Eagles can't score 14 points on a very bad
defense.

APR's top 25 regular season upsets: #17

#17: 2000 Week 8: Broncos 21, Bengals 31 (ρ=1.2833)

Broncos' season: finished 11-5, with #5 seed in the AFC, losing to the Ravens in the wildcard round.

Bengals' season: finished 4-12. Head coach Bruce Coslet resigned 3 games into the season, so this was actually the 4th game of the Dick LeBeau era.

What happened: the Broncos' run defense stayed home. The Broncos gave up 407 rushing yards, 2nd-most all time. Corey Dillon alone ran for 278 yards, which at the time set the single-game rushing yards record.

The Bengals completed just 2 passes for 34 yards in this game. On a related note, this was very near the end of Akili Smith's career as a starting quarterback in the NFL.

Also of note: Corey Dillon's 278 yards rushing in a single game has since been surpassed by Jerome Harrison (286), Jamal Lewis (295), and Adrian Peterson (296). There's only been one game since 1976 where a team has rushed for at least 300 yards in a game and still lost.

Next week: Roger Staubach has a bad day.