| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears @ Titans | Bears ρ=1.3163 | Bears* δ=21.8 | Bears -3½ |
| Bills @ Texans | Texans ρ=1.2983 | Texans δ=21.7 | Texans -10 |
| Chiefs @ Chargers | Chargers ρ=1.2250 | Chargers δ=12.0 | Chargers -8 |
| Broncos @ Bengals | Broncos ρ=1.1997 | Broncos* δ=15.8 | Broncos -3½ |
| Lions @ Jaguars | Lions ρ=1.1681 | Lions* δ=10.5 | Lions -3½ |
| Cardinals @ Packers | Packers ρ=1.1662 | Packers δ=6.8 | Packers -11 |
| Cowboys @ Falcons | Falcons ρ=1.1653 | Falcons δ=5.4 | Falcons -4 |
| Ravens @ Browns | Ravens* ρ=1.1628 | Ravens* δ=7.9 | Ravens -3½ |
| Dolphins @ Colts | Dolphins ρ=1.1248 | Dolphins* δ=9.4 | Dolphins -1½ |
| Steelers @ Giants | Giants ρ=1.0793 | Giants δ=9.7 | Giants -3 |
| Vikings @ Seahawks | Seahawks ρ=1.0688 | Seahawks δ=3.9 | Seahawks -5 |
| Buccaneers @ Raiders | Buccaneers ρ=1.0547 | Buccaneers* δ=11.4 | Raiders -1 |
| Eagles @ Saints | Eagles ρ=1.0458 | Eagles* δ=0.0 | Saints -3 |
| Panthers @ Redskins | Redskins* ρ=1.0177 | Redskins δ=0.2 | Redskins -3 |
Bye: Patriots, 49ers, Jets, Rams
Comments:
Only two split picks this week. All will rise and fall together.
After the Packers struggled to put away the Jaguars last week, I'm not sure how confident I am that they can cover an 11-point line. On the other hand, John Skelton has played really poorly so far, and a couple touchdowns may be all it takes for the Packers to cover.
Should the Ravens be on upset alert? They're on the road to a bad opponent, and the Browns took them to the wire when they played in Baltimore week 4.
In spite of a bunch of tough opponents left on their schedule, the Dolphins could make it to 9 wins this year, if they keep playing at the level they've been at so far. But to do that, they will need to win some games on the road, especially against lesser opponents like the Colts.
The Buccaneers have been in all of their games this year, including a close loss to the Giants. They might be able to beat the Raiders in Tampa, but flying cross-country to beat the Raiders in Oakland is a tall order for a team that has struggled to close out games all season long.
In many of their games, the Saints' offense has been nearly as good as their defense has been bad. I think I have to go with the Line on this one—the Eagles haven't scored more than 24 points all season, and I don't think they can keep up in a shoot-out with the Saints.
