NFL Week 12 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 12 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Bears (+7)

APR dropped the Bears 9 spots on their blow-out loss to the Rams, which might be a little harsh. On the other hand, the Bears have gone 3-5 since their 3-0 start. They just haven't been playing very good football since September.

On the bubble:

Nobody closer than the Browns (+5) and Packers (+5).

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

On the bubble

Nobody closer than the Rams (-5) and Giants (-5)

NFL Week 4 Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Eagles @ Broncos	Broncos ρ=1.6468	Broncos δ=27.1	Broncos -11
Redskins @ Raiders	Raiders ρ=1.4780	Raiders δ=19.4	Redskins -3
Colts @ Jaguars	Colts ρ=1.3863	Colts* δ=19.8	Colts -7½
Giants @ Chiefs	Chiefs ρ=1.2713	Chiefs δ=13.5	Chiefs -4½
Jets @ Titans	Jets ρ=1.1912	Jets* δ=22.7	Titans -3½
Steelers @ Vikings	Vikings ρ=1.1693	Vikings δ=6.1	Steelers -1½
Cowboys @ Chargers	Cowboys ρ=1.1641	Cowboys* δ=16.1	Cowboys -1
Seahawks @ Texans	Seahawks ρ=1.1286	Seahawks* δ=28.2	Seahawks -2½
49ers @ Rams	Rams ρ=1.1156	49ers* δ=3.9	49ers -3
Ravens @ Bills	Ravens* ρ=1.1057	Bills δ=9.2	Ravens -3½
Cardinals @ Buccaneers	Buccaneers ρ=1.1013	Buccaneers δ=16.1	Buccaneers -3
Patriots @ Falcons	Patriots ρ=1.0933	Patriots* δ=17.0	Falcons -2
Bengals @ Browns	Browns ρ=1.0875	Browns* δ=0.5	Bengals -4½
Bears @ Lions	Bears ρ=1.0536	Bears δ=5.4	Lions -2½
Dolphins @ Saints	Dolphins ρ=1.0510	Saints δ=0.7	Dolphins -6

Bye: Packers, Panthers

Comments:

• It feels like a lot of close games this week, and maybe a pretty ugly round of picks (after a very nice one last week).

• The Raiders have a win, and a close loss to what looks like could be a pretty good Colts team, while the the Redskins have 3 losses, including a couple blow-outs to what look like pretty weak opponents. So, from a purely final score point of view, it makes sense to pick the Raiders in this game. But, RG3 finally seems to be shaking off the rust, and Raiders QB Terrelle Prior could miss this game with a concussion, Maybe this is Matt Flynn's big chance, but I think the line is right here to pick the Redskins.

• The Steelers at least showed some signs of life Sunday night. And they'll be facing the weakest QB of their season so far. But the Steelers' rush defense has been in the bottom half of the league. This could be Adrian Peterson's first really big rushing game of the year.

• Last year, the Seahawks lost several road games against some pretty unremarkable opponents (Dolphins, Lions, Cardinals, and Rams). If it's not going to be more of the same for the Seahawks, this is the type of game they need to be able to win: on the road facing a decent opponent.

• The 49ers are also facing a must-win game, but for another reason. If they lose this week, they'll be 1-3, including 0-2 in their division. Even with 75% of the season left to play, that would give the Seahawks a huge lead in the divison.

• The Dolphins face another strong NFC South team, this time on the road. It will be a lot harder to discount them if they can slow down Drew Brees' offense enough to come out of New Orleans with a win.

• Update: apparently the Josh Freeman era is over for Tampa Bay. Freeman has never been an amazing QB, and after an 0-3 start featuring miserable QB stats, the Bucs are probably making the right decision.

NFL Week 2 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (7-2)

Right:

Saints @ Buccaneers
Broncos @ Giants
Jets @ Patriots
Vikings @ Bears
Redskins @ Packers
Jaguars @ Raiders
Steelers @ Bengals

Wrong:

Chargers @ Eagles

The Eagles' offense put up some big numbers again this week: 422 yards passing, 89 yards rushing, and 3 touchdowns. The problem is, the Eagles' defense allowed some big numbers too: 413 yards passing, 126 yards rushing, and 3 touchdowns. Chip Kelly's schemes are going to be in trouble as long as his defense keeps allowing 27+ points every game.

Lions @ Cardinals

After a tough first half, the Cardinals' defense managed to shut out the Lions's offense in the second half (the Lions' defense did get a pick 6 in the third quarter on yet another ill-advised throw by Carson Palmer). This game was the prototype recipe for a Cardinals win: good on defense, good on special teams (including a blocked field goal attempt), and enough effectiveness on offense to keep their head above water.

Split Picks: (APR 3-4, SRS 3-4, Line 5-2)

Dolphins (APR, SRS) @ Colts (Line)

Rams (APR, SRS) @ Falcons (Line)

APR and SRS both picked the Rams because they had a win last week, and the Falcons did not. That said, it's interesting to note that, in spite of the fact that the Falcons sprinted out to a 24-3 halftime lead, the Rams did manage to close by the end of the game, and came within one defensive stop of having a chance to drive for a tying score in the closing minutes.

Browns (APR, SRS) @ Ravens (Line)

APR and SRS picked the Browns here because they didn't get beat as bad as the Ravens in week 1. But the Browns' defense showed some signs of life again this week, holding the Ravens scoreless until late in the 3rd quarter, and holding them to a 1-point lead until the 4th. If the Browns could ever get their offense going, they... well, they might be able to win a game like this one, anyway.

Titans (APR, SRS) @ Texans (Line)

For the second week in a row, the Texans needed to come back on a team they were favored to beat. Besides trouble for the Texans, this game may also indicate that the Titans defense could have some real strength to it. It should be noted that Jake Locker has had a couple of unremarkable outings so far (he's still below 300 total yards passing for the season), so the Titans are probably still a ways from challenging for the division title (but 7 or 8 wins are probably not out of reach).

49ers (SRS) @ Seahawks (APR, Line)

The algorithms didn't like the Seahawks' unremarkable win last week. It was somewhat interesting to rewatch Football Night In America after the game, and hear everyone gush about what a threat Anquan Boldin was going to be (he had 1 catch for 7 yards in this game; in related news, the Packers' pass defense is not very good).

Cowboys (APR) @ Chiefs (SRS, Line)

Perhaps the most telling sequence of this game came late in the 4th quarter, after the Cowboys had kicked a field goal to pull within 1 point of the Chiefs. With 3:48 left in the game, and all 3 timeouts, the Cowboys kicked off deep. And the Chiefs proceeded to grind out the clock. They weren't forced to punt until there was just 0:29 on the game clock. The Cowboys are going to have a lot of trouble this season if their defense can't get stops when they absolutely need them.

Panthers (Line) @ Bills (APR, SRS)

Last year, the Panthers were in a lot of their games, but utlimately couldn't close the deal. This year, they've had two fourth-quarter leads, and twice they've watched their opponent overcome that lead to win the game. If Ron Rivera can't fix this real soon, the Panthers should start thinking about who they want to be their new head coach next year.

Totals

Not bad, considering how wonky the week 1 power rankings seemed.

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	10	-	6			10	-	6		62.5%
SRS	10	-	6			10	-	6		62.5%
Line	12	-	4			12	-	4		75%

NFL Pythagorean Projection 2012 -> 2013

The start of preseason is only a couple weeks away now, so it's time for this year's edition of Pythagorean Projection!

Team	Projected Wins	Note
Chiefs	2.6	new HC, QB
Jaguars	3.4	new HC
Eagles	4.0	new HC
Raiders	4.3	new QB
Cardinals	4.8	New HC, QB
Titans	4.8	make or break for Jake Locker
Jets	5.4	new QB?
Bills	5.8	New HC, QB
Browns	6.2	New HC
Lions	6.5	Some coaching changes
Rams	6.6
Dolphins	7.1
Colts	7.2	"New" HC
Cowboys	7.4	new DC
Panthers	7.8
Buccaneers	7.9
Chargers	8.0	New HC
Saints	8.1	S. Payton back
Steelers	8.6	Can Roethlisberger stay healthy?
Vikings	8.8	Can AP repeat?
Redskins	9.1	RG3 coming back from injury
Ravens	9.4	Free agent exodus
Bengals	9.9
Giants	10.0
Texans	10.1
Packers	10.3
Bears	10.8	New HC
Falcons	11.0
49ers	11.3
Broncos	12.3
Seahawks	12.4
Patriots	12.4

Comments:

• It's not going out on much of a limb to predict that the Chiefs will do better than 2 wins, but Andy Reid is the probably best head coach they've had at least since Dick Vermeil.

• I have to wonder how Chip Kelly will do in the NFL. The Pac-12 isn't exactly known for their defenses, and even the best college defense is not at the same level as the NFL. I'll believe his offensive schemes can work at the pro level when I see it happening.

• As mentioned previously, the Colts stats in 2012 were really not impressive, and that's reflected in their 7.2 win projection here. With Bruce Arians gone, and the whole emotional push of Chuck Pagano's situation pretty much over, the Colts could be in for a major let-down this year.

• The Ravens lost a lot of key talent after their Super Bowl victory. They didn't exactly power their way into the playoffs last year, and it won't take much of a slide for them to miss the playoffs entirely in 2013.

• The Seahawks enjoy perhaps the strongest home-field advantage of any team in the NFL right now. The bad news is that seems to cover some serious problems that manifested in their rather dismal 3-5 road record last year. They've got a pretty stout road schedule in 2013, and they can't afford to let any easy ones slip away if they're to make it to 12 wins overall.

• The Patriots have won double-digit games 11 of the last 12 seasons, made the playoffs 10 of those seasons, including 5 trips to the Super Bowl (and, of course, 3 wins). That's really an extraordinary success for the free-agent, salary cap era. However you feel about them, Belichick and Brady have to go down as one of the best HC/QB teams in the history of the game, and both will be easy first ballot hall-of-famers when the time comes.

NFL: Super Bowl Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Ravens @ 49ers (APR, SRS, Line)

Joe Flacco had a hot-and-cold regular season. In the 9 games he had a passer rating of 83 or better, the Ravens were 8-1. The problem was he had 7 games with a passer rating of 76.5 or worse, and the Ravens were 2-5 in those games (the two wins coming against the Chiefs and the Leftwich-lead Steelers).

In the playoffs, Flacco got on an amazing hot streak, passing for 1140 yards, 11 touchdowns, and a 117.1 passer rating. There defense wasn't really that amazing (including a couple games they gave up 31 or more points), but with Flacco playing lights out, they just needed to be "OK", and they were.

For the 49ers, defense has been an issue for a while now. In their first 13 games, the allowed an average of 14.2 points per game. Since then (and including the playoffs), they've allowed an average of 29.7 points per game—more than double the earlier average.

Colin Kaepernick I think did OK, including taking a team that was down by 3 scores in the 3rd quarter and getting them back into the game. There were some points in the game (including that interception and the 49ers final possession) where his inexperience showed. But this was a known factor going into the playoffs. I think if the 49ers defense had played as well as they had for their first 13 games, the Super Bowl never would've come down to one last drive to get a go-ahead touchdown.

Totals

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	0	-	1			6	-	5		54.5%
SRS	0	-	1			7	-	4		63.6%
Line	0	-	1			8	-	3		72.7%

Epilogue

That's it for the 2012 season. I'm kind of burned out on blogging about football right now, so I think I'm going to take a pass on the rest of the season wrap-up posts, and let fspi go dark for the off season.

I may do some off-season stuff in a few months if my interest rebounds, but if not, I'll be back in July with the Pythagorean Projection post for the upcoming season. Until then, thanks for reading, and I'll see you next fall.

NFL: Super Bowl Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Broncos	1.0815 (LW × 1.0138)	13-4	Bye
2 (↑2)	Ravens	1.0686 (LW × 1.0367)	14-6	Won by 3 @ 49ers
3 (↓1)	Seahawks	1.0557 (LW × 0.9960)	12-6	Bye
4 (↓1)	49ers	1.0348 (LW × 0.9830)	13-5-1	Lost by 3 vs Ravens
5 (↑1)	Bengals	0.9884 (LW × 1.0109)	10-7	Bye
6 (↓1)	Redskins	0.9869 (LW × 1.0083)	10-7	Bye
7 (-)	Patriots	0.9728 (LW × 1.0017)	13-5	Bye
8 (-)	Packers	0.9626 (LW × 0.9961)	12-6	Bye
9 (-)	Falcons	0.9574 (LW × 0.9989)	14-4	Bye
10 (-)	Giants	0.9458 (LW × 1.0073)	9-7	Bye
11 (-)	Panthers	0.9399 (LW × 1.0050)	7-9	Bye
12 (-)	Vikings	0.9253 (LW × 0.9968)	10-7	Bye
13 (↑1)	Steelers	0.9235 (LW × 1.0143)	8-8	Bye
14 (↓1)	Saints	0.9175 (LW × 1.0019)	7-9	Bye
15 (↑1)	Cowboys	0.9006 (LW × 1.0070)	8-8	Bye
16 (↓1)	Bears	0.8993 (LW × 0.9959)	10-6	Bye
17 (-)	Rams	0.8698 (LW × 0.9947)	7-8-1	Bye
18 (↑1)	Colts	0.8686 (LW × 1.0048)	11-6	Bye
19 (↓1)	Texans	0.8680 (LW × 1.0019)	13-5	Bye
20 (↑1)	Chargers	0.8627 (LW × 1.0104)	7-9	Bye
21 (↓1)	Buccaneers	0.8564 (LW × 1.0029)	7-9	Bye
22 (↑1)	Browns	0.8405 (LW × 1.0121)	5-11	Bye
23 (↓1)	Dolphins	0.8289 (LW × 0.9976)	7-9	Bye
24 (-)	Bills	0.7900 (LW × 0.9984)	6-10	Bye
25 (↑2)	Raiders	0.7783 (LW × 1.0098)	4-12	Bye
26 (↓1)	Lions	0.7740 (LW × 0.9977)	4-12	Bye
27 (↓1)	Titans	0.7708 (LW × 0.9998)	6-10	Bye
28 (-)	Jets	0.7663 (LW × 0.9992)	6-10	Bye
29 (-)	Cardinals	0.7518 (LW × 0.9941)	5-11	Bye
30 (-)	Eagles	0.7474 (LW × 1.0054)	4-12	Bye
31 (-)	Chiefs	0.7256 (LW × 1.0097)	2-14	Bye
32 (-)	Jaguars	0.6623 (LW × 0.9998)	2-14	Bye

Comments:

• The Ravens continue the recent theme that it doesn't matter if you have a bad regular season, if you can get hot in the playoffs.

• Hard to argue against Joe Flacco as MVP, especially if you consider the Ravens' playoff run as a whole. The Ravens scored at least 24 points in every one of their playoff games. And won, in spite of giving up 35 to the Broncos, and 31 to the 49ers.

• Thanks to the 49ers' 17-point 3rd quarter, the streak of Super Bowls within 1 score in the 4th quarter continues. (Bucs/Raiders was the last Super Bowl that was not.)

NFL: Super Bowl Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Ravens @ 49ers	49ers* ρ=1.0212	49ers δ=5.4	49ers -3½

Comments:

• The 49ers are the only team that has been to multiple Super Bowls and never lost. Of course, their last Super Bowl appearance was 18 years ago.

• The 49ers and Ravens played last year, in the Thanksgiving late game. Alex Smith was sacked 9 times, and the 49ers had 97 penalty yards.

• Everybody likes the 49ers. But the Ravens seem to be on a similar trajectory to last years Giants: they both had a pretty unremarkable regular season, squeaked into the playoffs, and then got on a hot streak.

• And with a couple impressive road victories in the playoffs, the Ravens seem to have shaken whatever problems they had last year playing away from home.

• The 49ers, on the other hand, haven't looked all that impressive away from Candlestick Park. 3 of their 4 losses have been on the road, including ugly breakdowns in Seattle and Minnesota.

• Meanwhile, Joe Flacco has been playing his best football of the season, including throwing 8 touchdowns and no interceptions for a 115 passer rating. The 49ers easily have the toughest defense the Ravens have faced in the playoffs,

• Given how the Ravens played in the regular season, it seems like an odd thing to say, but if the 49ers are to win the Super Bowl, they are going to have to do something the Colts, Broncos, and Patriots could not—slow down Joe Flacco, Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce.

NFL: Championship Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

49ers (APR, SRS, Line) @ Falcons

The good news for the Falcons is the 49ers didn't make this an early run-away. The bad news is, no matter how good you are at game-winning drives, sooner or later letting a lead slip away, and needing a score to retake the lead is going to turn out poorly.

The Falcons seemed to make a habit this season of scoring a lot in the first half, and then coasting in the second. This isn't a problem when your opponent is the Eagles or Chargers, but when it's the 49ers, and your halftime lead is just 10 points, that's asking for trouble.

Ravens @ Patriots (APR, SRS, Line)

The Patrtiots looked really flat in this game. They had one of their lowest-scoring first halves of the season, and their lowest scoring game overall. They had 4 trips into the red zone, with just one touchdown as a result.

It seems to me a big part of the Patriots' problem in this game was coaching. At the end of the first half, if they had used their time out earlier, they would've had one, and maybe two chances at a touchdown. Instead, they let the clock wind down and were forced to take a field goal on second down.

The Patriots also didn't seem to adopt to the windy conditions. In spite of the fact that they did better running the ball than the Ravens (3.9 ypc vs. 3.7), the Patriots passed the ball 54 times (25 of which were incomplete, including 2 interceptions).

Totals

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	1	-	1			6	-	4		60%
SRS	1	-	1			7	-	3		70%
Line	1	-	1			8	-	2		80%

NFL: Championship Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑2)	Broncos	1.0668 (LW × 1.0199)	13-4	Bye
2 (↓1)	Seahawks	1.0600 (LW × 0.9924)	12-6	Bye
3 (↓1)	49ers	1.0527 (LW × 0.9967)	13-4-1	Won by 4 @ Falcons
4 (↑1)	Ravens	1.0308 (LW × 1.0560)	13-6	Won by 15 @ Patriots
5 (↑2)	Redskins	0.9787 (LW × 1.0131)	10-7	Bye
6 (↑2)	Bengals	0.9778 (LW × 1.0141)	10-7	Bye
7 (↓3)	Patriots	0.9711 (LW × 0.9425)	13-5	Lost by 15 vs Ravens
8 (↓2)	Packers	0.9663 (LW × 0.9941)	12-6	Bye
9 (-)	Falcons	0.9585 (LW × 0.9983)	14-4	Lost by 4 vs 49ers
10 (↑2)	Giants	0.9390 (LW × 1.0123)	9-7	Bye
11 (-)	Panthers	0.9351 (LW × 1.0078)	7-9	Bye
12 (↓2)	Vikings	0.9282 (LW × 0.9928)	10-7	Bye
13 (-)	Saints	0.9158 (LW × 1.0058)	7-9	Bye
14 (↑1)	Steelers	0.9105 (LW × 1.0210)	8-8	Bye
15 (↓1)	Bears	0.9031 (LW × 0.9930)	10-6	Bye
16 (-)	Cowboys	0.8943 (LW × 1.0112)	8-8	Bye
17 (-)	Rams	0.8745 (LW × 0.9891)	7-8-1	Bye
18 (-)	Texans	0.8663 (LW × 0.9837)	13-5	Bye
19 (-)	Colts	0.8644 (LW × 0.9928)	11-6	Bye
20 (-)	Buccaneers	0.8539 (LW × 1.0045)	7-9	Bye
21 (↑1)	Chargers	0.8538 (LW × 1.0138)	7-9	Bye
22 (↓1)	Dolphins	0.8309 (LW × 0.9783)	7-9	Bye
23 (-)	Browns	0.8304 (LW × 1.0173)	5-11	Bye
24 (-)	Bills	0.7913 (LW × 0.9822)	6-10	Bye
25 (-)	Lions	0.7758 (LW × 0.9925)	4-12	Bye
26 (-)	Titans	0.7710 (LW × 0.9878)	6-10	Bye
27 (↑2)	Raiders	0.7707 (LW × 1.0140)	4-12	Bye
28 (↓1)	Jets	0.7669 (LW × 0.9833)	6-10	Bye
29 (↓1)	Cardinals	0.7563 (LW × 0.9923)	5-11	Bye
30 (-)	Eagles	0.7434 (LW × 1.0088)	4-12	Bye
31 (-)	Chiefs	0.7186 (LW × 1.0125)	2-14	Bye
32 (-)	Jaguars	0.6624 (LW × 0.9825)	2-14	Bye

Comments:

• The Broncos reclaim the lead, thanks to the indirect power of having recently played the Ravens. Note the Bengals and Giants also both move up 2 spots.

• This is the first time since the 1997 season that both home teams lost in the Championship round.

• This is the third season in a row a 4th-seeded or lower team has advanced to the Super Bowl.

• The 49ers win makes them 2-5 in their last 7 Conference Championships. Overall, this is just the 2nd time they've won on the road.

• Both losing teams had a lead at halftime, and both were shut out in the second half.

• So, Harbaugh vs. Harbaugh? Yeah, we're going to hear a lot about that in the next two weeks.

NFL: New overtime rules are a solution in search of a problem

In the 2009 NFC Championship game, the Vikings (for the most part) outplayed the Saints. But the Saints managed to force overtime, and on their opening drive, got into field goal range and kicked the winning field goal.

The problem, of course, was that the Vikings turned the ball over 5 times, and let the Saints stay in the game. The conclusion of much of the football media was different—that the Saints final score in overtime was too easy, and the Vikings should've had a chance to respond.

In response, starting with the 2010 season, the NFL implemented a new overtime rule for the playoffs. Instead of the usual sudden-death "first team to score wins" scheme, the rules were modified so that both teams would (usually) have a chance to possess the ball.

None of the 2010 playoff games went to overtime, and in 2011 season, only one playoff game that went to overtime, and that game happened to hit one of the exceptions to the "opportunity to possess" rule—if a team scores a touchdown on the opening drive, the game is over.

In 2012, the "opportunity to possess" rule was expanded to regular season games. 22 games went to overtime in the 2012 regular season. Here's how the results broke down:

Opening drive	# Games	Consequence
Touchdown	3	Game over
No score	15	Sudden death rules
Field goal	4	Other team gets "opportunity to possess"

In 3 of the 4 cases where a field goal was scored on the opening drive, the other team was unable to respond. That leaves exactly one case where the new "opportunity to possess" rules resulted in a second score (but the first team to score won anyway).

It's only been one season, and maybe things will change when players and coaches get used to the new rules, but for now there's really no evidence that the new overtime rules have solved a problem that actually exists in the field of play.

Bonus!

Here are all the playoff games where Brett Favre's final play from scrimmage was an intercepted pass in a tied game:

• 2003 Divisional Round: Packers @ Eagles
• 2007 Championship Game: Giants @ Packers
• 2009 Championship Game: Vikings @ Saints

This was also not the first time Favre had serious turnover trouble in a playoff game.

NFL Championship: Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
49ers @ Falcons	49ers ρ=1.1000	49ers* δ=3.8	49ers -4
Ravens @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.0555	Patriots δ=9.1	Patriots -9

Comments:

• As noted earlier, the Falcons have not played well from behind this year. They are 1-3 when they fall behind by more than 7 points (and that figure would be 0-4, if the Cardinals had any kind of offense at all).

  So the question for this game is, which 49ers team will show up on game day—the team that strapped a season-high 45 points on the Packers, or the team that couldn't do anything right when they played the Seahawks in week 16?

• For the AFC side, this feels like a game that could be a lot closer than its 9-point line would indicate. The Pariots and Ravens played to a 1-point decision in their week 3 matchup, and the Ravens came within a missed field goal of forcing overtime in last year's AFC Championship game.

  The Ravens have had some impressive offensive games, scoring 33 points on the Giants in week 16, and scoring 38 points on the Broncos last week. If they can keep that offensive momentum going, the Patriots may find themselves in a game where they need to score early and often just to keep up.

NFL Divisional Round: Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Ravens @ Broncos (APR, SRS, Line)

Peyton Manning didn't have a great day in this game. An early interception was returned for a touchdown, and a late one set up the Ravens for the game-winning field goal. Except for a couple return touchdowns scored by the Broncos' special teams, this game would've been even uglier.

But perhaps the real problem for the Broncos was their defense. They made the Ravens' unremarkable offense look like world-beaters. Joe Flacco passed for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns, Ray Rice rushed for 131 yards and another touchdown, and the Broncos lost a home playoff game in spite of scoring 35 points.

Packers @ 49ers (APR, SRS, Line)

As I indicated in the game picks, the Packers' defense needed to step up in this game. For the first half, they had some successes (a pick 6 and two forced punts), but also some failures (the 49ers scored 24 first-half points). Things got very ugly in the second half. While the Packers offense struggled to move the ball, the 49ers drove with ease, Colin Kaepernick ran all over them, and the 49ers scored 21 unanswered points to put the game well out of reach.

Seahawks (APR, SRS) @ Falcons (Line)

The Seahawks had another slow start in this game, falling behind 20-0 by halftime. Like the wildcard round, they seemed to wake up, and managed to go on a run, outscoring the Falcons 28-7 through most of the second half. But that gave them just a 1-point lead, and they left the Falcons enough time to drive into field goal range and score a game-winning field goal.

Whatever faults the Falcons may have, they are used to playing (and winning) games that are close and come down to the final moments of the 4th quarter.

Texans @ Patriots (APR, SRS, Line)

This was pretty much a replay of their week 14 meeting. The Texans' offense couldn't move the ball on the Patriots defense (they didn't have a drive go more than 50 yards until the 3rd quarter).

The Texans' defense slowed down the Patriots offense for a while, keeping it just a 4-point game at halftime, but in the second half, while the Texans struggled to move the ball, the Patriots reeled off 3 touchdowns in 4 drives that put the game away.

Totals

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	2	-	2			5	-	3		62.5%
SRS	2	-	2			6	-	2		75%
Line	3	-	1			7	-	1		82.5%

NFL Divisional Round Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑1)	Seahawks	1.0680 (LW × 0.9967)	12-6	Lost by 2 @ Falcons
2 (↑1)	49ers	1.0561 (LW × 1.0239)	12-4-1	Won by 14 vs Packers
3 (↓2)	Broncos	1.0460 (LW × 0.9698)	13-4	Lost by 3 vs Ravens
4 (-)	Patriots	1.0304 (LW × 0.9998)	13-4	Won by 13 vs Texans
5 (↑3)	Ravens	0.9762 (LW × 1.0283)	12-6	Won by 3 @ Broncos
6 (↓1)	Packers	0.9721 (LW × 0.9752)	12-6	Lost by 14 @ 49ers
7 (-)	Redskins	0.9660 (LW × 1.0048)	10-7	Bye
8 (↓2)	Bengals	0.9642 (LW × 1.0009)	10-7	Bye
9 (↑1)	Falcons	0.9601 (LW × 1.0234)	14-3	Won by 2 vs Seahawks
10 (↓1)	Vikings	0.9349 (LW × 0.9884)	10-7	Bye
11 (-)	Panthers	0.9279 (LW × 0.9999)	7-9	Bye
12 (-)	Giants	0.9276 (LW × 1.0060)	9-7	Bye
13 (↑1)	Saints	0.9105 (LW × 1.0061)	7-9	Bye
14 (↓1)	Bears	0.9094 (LW × 0.9938)	10-6	Bye
15 (↑1)	Steelers	0.8917 (LW × 1.0055)	8-8	Bye
16 (↑2)	Cowboys	0.8844 (LW × 1.0047)	8-8	Bye
17 (-)	Rams	0.8841 (LW × 1.0011)	7-8-1	Bye
18 (↓3)	Texans	0.8807 (LW × 0.9867)	13-5	Lost by 13 @ Patriots
19 (-)	Colts	0.8708 (LW × 0.9966)	11-6	Bye
20 (↑1)	Buccaneers	0.8501 (LW × 1.0017)	7-9	Bye
21 (↓1)	Dolphins	0.8493 (LW × 0.9998)	7-9	Bye
22 (-)	Chargers	0.8422 (LW × 0.9986)	7-9	Bye
23 (-)	Browns	0.8163 (LW × 0.9997)	5-11	Bye
24 (-)	Bills	0.8056 (LW × 0.9974)	6-10	Bye
25 (-)	Lions	0.7817 (LW × 0.9932)	4-12	Bye
26 (-)	Titans	0.7805 (LW × 0.9926)	6-10	Bye
27 (-)	Jets	0.7800 (LW × 0.9976)	6-10	Bye
28 (↑1)	Cardinals	0.7621 (LW × 1.0014)	5-11	Bye
29 (↓1)	Raiders	0.7600 (LW × 0.9980)	4-12	Bye
30 (-)	Eagles	0.7369 (LW × 1.0038)	4-12	Bye
31 (-)	Chiefs	0.7097 (LW × 0.9932)	2-14	Bye
32 (-)	Jaguars	0.6742 (LW × 0.9942)	2-14	Bye

Comments:

• The Seahawks lose some power this week, but not much due to a close loss on the road. The Broncos fall a lot more, and the 49ers can't move above them, so the Seahawks back into the top spot in the rankings.

• Peyton Manning now has 8 one-and-done playoff appearances.

• The Seahawks are the only losing team this week that didn't score first.

• APR is really not impressed with the Texans' season. But (counting the playoffs) they finished 2-3 in their last 5 games, with every loss by at least 12 points.

• The Falcons are now the lowest-ranked playoff team still alive in the playoffs. And given the way they let a 20-point lead slip away on Sunday, and needed a last-second field goal to secure a win, I think their chances of advancing to the Super Bowl are pretty slim.

NFL Wrapup: APR's biggest upsets of 2012

Dishonorable Mention: games that just missed the top 10

• Week 17: The Texans need one more win to clinch the AFC's top seed, but are denied by the nothing-to-play-for Colts.

• Week 6: The Bengals couldn't run the ball, and Andy Dalton threw 3 interceptions, giving the Browns their first win of the season.

• Week 4: The Seahawks only score 13 points, and 3 interceptions give the Rams enough to give them their second road loss.

• Week 13: The 49ers travel to St. Louis, offensive mistakes spot the Rams 10 points, giving the Rams an opportunity to kick a late field goal in overtime. The Rams finished 4-1-1 in their division.

• Week 5: The Packers build a 21-3 lead over the Colts, but then somehow get outscored 27-6 in the second half. Only the Chargers in week 6 had a bigger second-half collapse this season.

APR's Top 10 Upsets of the 2012 Season

10. Week 3: Steelers 31, Raiders 34 (ρ=1.1726)
    The Steelers had problems on both sides of the ball this season, including allowing the Raiders to score a season-high 34 points on their defense. The Steelers were 2-6 in 2012 when they allowed 20 or more points.

9. Week 12: Seahawks 21, Dolphins 24 (ρ=1.1900)
   A bad day for the Seahawks on both sides of the ball. They allowed the Dolphins' offense to have one of their best games of the season, and their offense only scored 21 points on a defense that gave up 23 or more points 8 times this year.

8. Week 3: Jaguars 22, Colts 17 (ρ= 1.1930)
   The Colts had a pretty tough start to the season, including this loss to the Jaguars. In fairness, the Jaguars are a lot better when Maurice Jones-Drew can play.

7. Week 2: Ravens 23, Eagles 24 (ρ= 1.2047)
   The Ravens' defense has had some bad games this season, perhaps none worse than this one, where they allowed the Eagles 24 points in spite of 4 turnovers.

6. Week 8: Seahawks 24, Lions 28 (ρ= 1.2172)
   More evidence that the Seahawks just aren't as good a team away from their home stadium. In a situation where one more stop might've won the game, their defense allowed the Lions to drive the length of the field, score a go-ahead touchdown, and use virtually all of the remaining game time.

5. Week 4: Giants 17, Eagles 19 (ρ=1.2222)
   The Eagles had probably their best game of the season. Only one touchdown, but no turnovers, 422 yards of offense, and their defense held the Giants to just 17 points. If the rest of the Eagles' season had gone this way, Andy Reid would still be coaching in Philadelphia.

4. Week 2: Cardinals 20, Patriots 18 (ρ=1.2365)
   The Cardinals had a good defense, and occasionally made plays on special teams. In this game, the result was a perfect storm of things going wrong for the Patriots—for drive after drive, their offense stalled short of the endzone, Brady had a pass tipped and intercepted, the Patriots' special teams had a punt blocked, and a last-second field goal try went wide left.

3. Week 1: Seahawks 16, Cardinals 20 (ρ=1.2376)
   To be fair to the Cardinals, Kevin Kolb was a serviceable quarterback, and the Cardinals were a much, much better team than when they played with any of his backups.

2. Week 13: Panthers 21, Chiefs 27 (ρ=1.2896)
   The Panthers lost a lot of games this season because their defense couldn't stop their opponents. In this game, they allowed the Chiefs to score a season-high 27 points, and didn't get a single turnover from an offense that had 37 on the season.

1. Week 3: Chiefs 27, Saints 24 (ρ= 1.2913)
   The Saints claim the top spot on this list for the fourth year in a row. The Saints had a 24-6 lead with less than 6 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. All they needed to do is control the ball, run out the clock, and maybe get one more insurance score. Instead, the defense gave up a touchdown and 3 field goals, the offense gave up a critical safety, and the Chiefs managed to score 21 unanswered points to win the game in overtime.

The top two upsets qualify for spots on APR's top 25 regular season upsets. They would both go between #14 (1979 Falcons @ Chargers) and #15 (2009 Eagles @ Raiders). It's a measure of just how bad the Chiefs were this season that it introduces to the list the first two upset teams that finished with losing records.

Eliminated Games

• Week 17: Buccaneers 22, Falcons 17 (ρ=1.1753)
  I will give the Falcons the benefit of the doubt here, that they just weren't playing as hard as they would if they had anything to gain by winning this game.

Biggest Upsets According to the Line

Winning teams in bold. Teams favored by 10 or more points were 25-1-1 this year.

Week	Game	Line
5	Packers 27, Colts 30	Packers -7
17	Texans 16, Colts 28	Texans -7
14	Chargers 34, Steelers 24	Steelers -7
13	49ers 13, Rams 16	49ers -7
3	49ers 13, Vikings 24	49ers -7½
14	Eagles 23, Buccaneers 21	Buccaneers -7½
3	Chiefs 27, Saints 24	Saints -8½
16	Vikings 23, Texans 6	Texans -9
13	Steelers 13, Ravens 10	Ravens -9
1	Redskins 40, Saints 32	Saints -9½
2	Cardinals 20, Patriots 18	Patriots -14

NFL Divisional Round Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Texans @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.1547	Patriots δ=9.1	Patriots -9
Seahawks @ Falcons	Seahawks ρ=1.1422	Seahawks* δ=5.8	Falcons -2½
Ravens @ Broncos	Broncos ρ=1.1362	Broncos δ=6.8	Broncos -9
Packers @ 49ers	49ers ρ=1.0348	49ers δ=2.5	49ers -3

Comments:

• The Line likes all the home teams. In the 42 divisional rounds played since the merger, all 4 home teams have won 9 times (21.4%). This happened most recently in 2004. Probably not coincidentally, home teams in the wildcard round that year were 1-3.

• If the Patriots win this week, it will be the first time a team lost the Super Bowl, and then advanced to the Championship round the following season, since the Bills did it in 1993 (and 1992, and 1991).

• Seahawks @ Falcons is the only game this week that is not a rematch of a regular season game.

• Once again, I think a Seahawks win will depend on them scoring early and often. A low-scoring game that's close in the 4th quarter benefits the way the Falcons like to play. But as noted earlier, the Falcons get into trouble when they fall behind to a team that can slow down the game.

• In their week 1 matchup, the Packers' defense had a very poor game against the 49ers' offense. They didn't force a second punt until the end of the 3rd quarter, and by that time the Packers were behind 23-7. A season's worth of experience should help the Packers there.

  On the other hand, the Packers' offense has had a lot of slow starts (their opponent has scored first 9 times this season, including the wildcard game last Saturday). Whatever else happens, the Packers' defense will certainly need to force more than one punt in the first 3 quarters if they are to have a chance to win this game.

NFL Wildcard: Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Bengals (APR) @ Texans (SRS, Line)

This game went like a lot of other Bengals' losses this season. A.J. Green and Jermaine Gresham were contained, and the Bengals didn't have anyone else who could step up and make a difference. As a result, the Bengals had 127 yards passing, 80 yards rushing, and 3 field goals (as well as a pick 6) on the scoreboard. It really didn't take much for the Texans to overcome that.

Vikings @ Packers (APR, SRS, Line)

The Vikings were forced to start their backup quarterback Joe Webb. For their first drive, it looked like they had a pretty good strategy: hand offs to Adrian Peterson, and quarterback options. They managed to drive 53 yards down the field with just one pass on the whole drive.

After that, the Vikings started calling a lot more pass plays, and at least in this game, Joe Webb was not ready to pass the ball. He had a 37% completion rate and 180 yards (and a lot of that came in garbage time).

Of course, a big part of the reason the passing game was a problem for the Vikings is that the Packers' defense, for the first time this season, managed to contain Adrian Peterson. He was held under 100 yards, and (again, until late in garbage time) well under 4 yards per carry. Even when Christian Ponder is playing, the Vikings' offense is very limited when their running game is contained.

Colts @ Ravens (APR, SRS, Line)

Andrew Luck had a pretty good rookie season, leading the Colts to a 11-5 record and a playoff berth. But if you look at his passing stats, there are a couple things that stand out: a completion rate of 54% is pretty low, and 18 interceptions is pretty high, especially for only 23 touchdowns.

The Ravens' defense made sure both problems were on display in this game: Luck had a 52% completion rate, no touchdowns, and one interception. Somehow the Colts managed to get into Vinatiere's field goal range three times anyway.

On the other side, the Ravens were able to take advantage of the Colts' unremarkable defense, putting up 269 yards passing and 172 yards rushing. With a defensive breakdown like that, The Colts' 9 points were never close to being enough.

Seahawks (APR, SRS, Line) @ Redskins

For one quarter, it sure looked like the Seahawks were in trouble. The Redskins offense came out and put together a couple long touchdown drives, while their defense held the Seahawks to a punt and a field goal.

Unfortunately, after that Robert Griffin III appeared to be injured, and was certainly ineffective. The Redskins' offense didn't have a drive longer than 23 yards the rest of the game, and never came close to scoring again.

The Seahawks' offense didn't look that great against the Redskins' defense, but with the Redskins' offense struggling for most of the game, they didn't need a lot of production to seal a win.

Totals

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	3	-	1			3	-	1		75%
SRS	4	-	0			4	-	0		100%
Line	4	-	0			4	-	0		100%

NFL Wild Card: Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Broncos	1.0785 (LW × 1.0071)	13-3	Bye
2 (-)	Seahawks	1.0715 (LW × 1.0401)	12-5	Won by 10 @ Redskins
3 (↑1)	49ers	1.0315 (LW × 1.0137)	11-4-1	Bye
4 (↓1)	Patriots	1.0306 (LW × 1.0062)	12-4	Bye
5 (-)	Packers	0.9968 (LW × 1.0348)	12-5	Won by 14 vs Vikings
6 (↑1)	Bengals	0.9633 (LW × 1.0053)	10-7	Lost by 6 @ Texans
7 (↓1)	Redskins	0.9614 (LW × 1.0021)	10-7	Lost by 10 vs Seahawks
8 (↑3)	Ravens	0.9493 (LW × 1.0297)	11-6	Won by 15 vs Colts
9 (↓1)	Vikings	0.9459 (LW × 1.0059)	10-7	Lost by 14 @ Packers
10 (↓1)	Falcons	0.9381 (LW × 1.0062)	13-3	Bye
11 (↓1)	Panthers	0.9279 (LW × 1.0053)	7-9	Bye
12 (-)	Giants	0.9221 (LW × 1.0099)	9-7	Bye
13 (-)	Bears	0.9151 (LW × 1.0140)	10-6	Bye
14 (-)	Saints	0.9050 (LW × 1.0060)	7-9	Bye
15 (↑1)	Texans	0.8925 (LW × 1.0102)	13-4	Won by 6 vs Bengals
16 (↑1)	Steelers	0.8869 (LW × 1.0095)	8-8	Bye
17 (↑2)	Rams	0.8831 (LW × 1.0128)	7-8-1	Bye
18 (-)	Cowboys	0.8802 (LW × 1.0047)	8-8	Bye
19 (↓4)	Colts	0.8737 (LW × 0.9850)	11-6	Lost by 15 @ Ravens
20 (↑1)	Dolphins	0.8495 (LW × 1.0081)	7-9	Bye
21 (↓1)	Buccaneers	0.8486 (LW × 1.0055)	7-9	Bye
22 (-)	Chargers	0.8433 (LW × 1.0078)	7-9	Bye
23 (-)	Browns	0.8166 (LW × 1.0063)	5-11	Bye
24 (-)	Bills	0.8077 (LW × 1.0080)	6-10	Bye
25 (↑1)	Lions	0.7871 (LW × 1.0119)	4-12	Bye
26 (↓1)	Titans	0.7863 (LW × 1.0056)	6-10	Bye
27 (-)	Jets	0.7819 (LW × 1.0088)	6-10	Bye
28 (-)	Raiders	0.7616 (LW × 1.0066)	4-12	Bye
29 (-)	Cardinals	0.7611 (LW × 1.0146)	5-11	Bye
30 (-)	Eagles	0.7342 (LW × 1.0044)	4-12	Bye
31 (-)	Chiefs	0.7146 (LW × 1.0035)	2-14	Bye
32 (-)	Jaguars	0.6781 (LW × 1.0055)	2-14	Bye

Comments:

• Not a lot of movement, in spite of the fact that only one game ended within one score.

• The Texans continue APR's tradition of the lowest ranked playoff team winning their first game. Of course, the related tradition is an unceremonious exit in the divisional round.

• Another good year for the home teams in the Wild Card round. In the 6 seasons From 2004 to 2010, there was only one year (2006) when more than two home teams won in the Wild Card round. Prior to that, at least 3 home teams won in the 11 season from 1993 to 2003.

• The Ravens are the only winning team that didn't trail in their game this week. The Seahawks are the only team to trail by more than 3.

NFL Wrapup: Pythagorian Projection vs. Reality

As usual, the "Projected Wins" value is used as a baseline, so a positive difference means the team exceeded their projected win value, a negative difference means they fell short.

Teams are sorted by the magnatude (absolute value) of the difference; teams that came close to their projected wins are near the top, teams farthest away from their projection are at the bottom.

This is a follow-up to a post from last summer. See this post for background details.

Team	Actual	Proj.	Diff	Note
Browns	5	4.9	0.1
Patriots	12	11.6	0.4
Panthers	7	7.5	-0.5
Bills	6	6.6	-0.6
Cowboys	8	8.6	-0.6
49ers	11.5	12.3	-0.8
Packers	11	11.9	-0.9
Giants	9	7.9	1.1
Texans	12	10.9	1.1
Ravens	10	11.2	-1.2
Bengals	10	8.6	1.4
Dolphins	7	8.5	-1.5
Chargers	7	8.7	-1.7
Bears	10	8.3	1.7
Chiefs	2	4.0	-2.0
Cardinals	5	7.0	-2.0	Kevin Kolb can't stay healthy
Titans	6	8.2	-2.2	Jake Locker doesn't seem ready for prime time
Raiders	4	6.3	-2.3
Jets	6	8.4	-2.4	Revis hurt, and nobody to take up the slack
Seahawks	11	8.2	2.8	Russell Wilson, defense
Jaguars	2	5.2	-3.2	MJD hurt for most of season
Steelers	8	11.2	-3.2	Bruce Arians > Todd Haley?
Buccaneers	7	3.5	3.5
Falcons	13	9.3	3.7	Easy schedule?
Redskins	10	5.8	4.2	RG3
Vikings	10	5.5	4.5	Adrian Peterson's MVP season
Saints	7	12.1	-5.1	Sanctions take their toll
Rams	7.5	2.3	5.2	Jeff Fisher
Eagles	4	9.8	-5.8	Collapse of the Dream Team
Lions	4	9.9	-5.9	Lack of discipline
Broncos	13	5.8	7.2	Peyton Manning
Colts	11	3.3	7.7	Bruce Arians, Andrew Luck

Comments:

• Jeff Fisher did an impressive job in his first season with the Rams, managing to post their best record in 6 years, and a 4-1-1 record in the division. Of course, that means they'll be expected to have a winning record next year, something they haven't done since 2003.

• The Bengals' win over the Giants was the start of a 7-1 streak that propelled them to a winning season and the playoffs. They now have back-to-back winning seasons and playoff appearances for the first time in 30 years. The Bengals last won a playoff game 22 years ago, so a win this Saturday will end the league's longest active streak without a playoff win.

• It shouldn't be a huge surprise that a lack of discipline off the field for the Lions was reflected in a lack of performance on the field. The Lions did fire a few assistant coaches; I guess we'll find out next fall how much of a difference that makes.

• I certainly nailed it when I predicted the Saints would fall short of their 12.1-win projection. The good news for that team is (assuming their offense remains strong) even a modest improvement in their defense will get the Saints right back in contention.

• On the other hand, my prediction that the 49ers would fall short of their 12.3-win projection was, well, wrong. Mostly a very impressive season, especially given a pretty tough schedule. But I wonder how confident Jim Harbaugh can be going into the playoffs with a quarterback who doesn't have 8 starts yet, and his choice of two unreliable field goal kickers.

• The Colts have managed a very impressive turn-around, with a lot of the credit going to Andrew Luck. But his stat lines haven't been very impressive, with a 54% completion rate, and nearly as many interceptions as touchdown passes. As mentioned earlier, I think there's a good chance Luck will struggle in the playoffs, and could have a noticable sophomore slump next year if the Colts have a tougher schedule of opponents.

NFL Wildcard Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Bengals @ Texans	Bengals ρ=1.0846	Texans δ=1.3	Texans -4½
Seahawks @ Redskins	Seahawks ρ=1.0739	Seahawks* δ=8.8	Seahawks -3
Colts @ Ravens	Ravens ρ=1.0393	Ravens δ=7.7	Ravens -6½
Vikings @ Packers	Packers ρ=1.0244	Packers δ=3.9	Packers -7½

Comments:

• APR picks the Bengals to upset the Texans. Given the Texans are on an ugly 1-3 slump that cost them the #1 seed, a win at home is far from a sure thing.

• Everybody likes the Seahawks. But they have road losses to the Cardinals, Rams, Lions, and Dolphins. On the other hand, the Redskins' defense has been pretty bad, so maybe the Seahawks can continue their high-scoring ways for at least one more game.

• The Colts have to be pretty happy making the playoffs after such sweeping changes to their franchise. But they only have two road wins outside the division. A last-second come-back win over the can't-win-for-losing Lions, and a one touchdown win over the Chiefs that was close for the whole game.

  The Colts have given up a lot of points on the road (including 35 to the otherwise low-scoring Jets), so unless the Colts really come out hot, this game could be over early.

• Packers -7½ seems like a big spread, given how the Vikings' offense shredded the Packers defense last week. Yeah, the rematch will be in Green Bay, but the Vikings are anything but a pushover when Adrian Peterson is running like he has been. And when Christian Ponder has a good game as well, the Vikings can be a very tough team to beat.

NFL Week 17 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 17 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Colts (+8)

The Colts have 2 road wins outside the AFC South. Their playoff game on Sunday could be over by halftime.

Falcons (+7)

I assume ESPN gave the Falcons the benefit of the doubt for not putting away the Buccaneers (in spite of playing all their starters for the whole game). APR did not, dropping them 3 spots.

Texans (+7)

I'm not really sure how ESPN still has the Texans in their top 10. Their record, especially since the bye, is really unimpressive. Does anyone see this team making it to the AFC Championship game?

On the bubble

Nobody closer than Rams, Cowboys (+3)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Panthers (-8)

APR gives the Panthers a 5-spot bump on their 6-point win over the Saints. They finished with a respectable 6-3 record. On the other hand, one of those 3 losses came at the hands of the Chiefs.

On the bubble

Nobody closer than the Saints (-5)