NFL Wrapup: APR's biggest upsets of 2012

Dishonorable Mention: games that just missed the top 10

• Week 17: The Texans need one more win to clinch the AFC's top seed, but are denied by the nothing-to-play-for Colts.

• Week 6: The Bengals couldn't run the ball, and Andy Dalton threw 3 interceptions, giving the Browns their first win of the season.

• Week 4: The Seahawks only score 13 points, and 3 interceptions give the Rams enough to give them their second road loss.

• Week 13: The 49ers travel to St. Louis, offensive mistakes spot the Rams 10 points, giving the Rams an opportunity to kick a late field goal in overtime. The Rams finished 4-1-1 in their division.

• Week 5: The Packers build a 21-3 lead over the Colts, but then somehow get outscored 27-6 in the second half. Only the Chargers in week 6 had a bigger second-half collapse this season.

APR's Top 10 Upsets of the 2012 Season

10. Week 3: Steelers 31, Raiders 34 (ρ=1.1726)
    The Steelers had problems on both sides of the ball this season, including allowing the Raiders to score a season-high 34 points on their defense. The Steelers were 2-6 in 2012 when they allowed 20 or more points.

9. Week 12: Seahawks 21, Dolphins 24 (ρ=1.1900)
   A bad day for the Seahawks on both sides of the ball. They allowed the Dolphins' offense to have one of their best games of the season, and their offense only scored 21 points on a defense that gave up 23 or more points 8 times this year.

8. Week 3: Jaguars 22, Colts 17 (ρ= 1.1930)
   The Colts had a pretty tough start to the season, including this loss to the Jaguars. In fairness, the Jaguars are a lot better when Maurice Jones-Drew can play.

7. Week 2: Ravens 23, Eagles 24 (ρ= 1.2047)
   The Ravens' defense has had some bad games this season, perhaps none worse than this one, where they allowed the Eagles 24 points in spite of 4 turnovers.

6. Week 8: Seahawks 24, Lions 28 (ρ= 1.2172)
   More evidence that the Seahawks just aren't as good a team away from their home stadium. In a situation where one more stop might've won the game, their defense allowed the Lions to drive the length of the field, score a go-ahead touchdown, and use virtually all of the remaining game time.

5. Week 4: Giants 17, Eagles 19 (ρ=1.2222)
   The Eagles had probably their best game of the season. Only one touchdown, but no turnovers, 422 yards of offense, and their defense held the Giants to just 17 points. If the rest of the Eagles' season had gone this way, Andy Reid would still be coaching in Philadelphia.

4. Week 2: Cardinals 20, Patriots 18 (ρ=1.2365)
   The Cardinals had a good defense, and occasionally made plays on special teams. In this game, the result was a perfect storm of things going wrong for the Patriots—for drive after drive, their offense stalled short of the endzone, Brady had a pass tipped and intercepted, the Patriots' special teams had a punt blocked, and a last-second field goal try went wide left.

3. Week 1: Seahawks 16, Cardinals 20 (ρ=1.2376)
   To be fair to the Cardinals, Kevin Kolb was a serviceable quarterback, and the Cardinals were a much, much better team than when they played with any of his backups.

2. Week 13: Panthers 21, Chiefs 27 (ρ=1.2896)
   The Panthers lost a lot of games this season because their defense couldn't stop their opponents. In this game, they allowed the Chiefs to score a season-high 27 points, and didn't get a single turnover from an offense that had 37 on the season.

1. Week 3: Chiefs 27, Saints 24 (ρ= 1.2913)
   The Saints claim the top spot on this list for the fourth year in a row. The Saints had a 24-6 lead with less than 6 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. All they needed to do is control the ball, run out the clock, and maybe get one more insurance score. Instead, the defense gave up a touchdown and 3 field goals, the offense gave up a critical safety, and the Chiefs managed to score 21 unanswered points to win the game in overtime.

The top two upsets qualify for spots on APR's top 25 regular season upsets. They would both go between #14 (1979 Falcons @ Chargers) and #15 (2009 Eagles @ Raiders). It's a measure of just how bad the Chiefs were this season that it introduces to the list the first two upset teams that finished with losing records.

Eliminated Games

• Week 17: Buccaneers 22, Falcons 17 (ρ=1.1753)
  I will give the Falcons the benefit of the doubt here, that they just weren't playing as hard as they would if they had anything to gain by winning this game.

Biggest Upsets According to the Line

Winning teams in bold. Teams favored by 10 or more points were 25-1-1 this year.

Week	Game	Line
5	Packers 27, Colts 30	Packers -7
17	Texans 16, Colts 28	Texans -7
14	Chargers 34, Steelers 24	Steelers -7
13	49ers 13, Rams 16	49ers -7
3	49ers 13, Vikings 24	49ers -7½
14	Eagles 23, Buccaneers 21	Buccaneers -7½
3	Chiefs 27, Saints 24	Saints -8½
16	Vikings 23, Texans 6	Texans -9
13	Steelers 13, Ravens 10	Ravens -9
1	Redskins 40, Saints 32	Saints -9½
2	Cardinals 20, Patriots 18	Patriots -14

NFL Wrapup: APR's Biggest Upsets of 2011

How Upsets Were Determined

Using all game scores through week 16, the power index values for all teams were computed, using a non-weighted version of the APR ranking algorithm. (The final week of games is left out to avoid skewing the rankings with the results of games where teams are resting their starters, or otherwise not trying).

For the weekly power rankings, APR uses method that gives less weight to older games, emphasising each teams more recent perormances. This means that the matchup ratios (ρ) listed below will not correspond to the matchup ratios listed in the weekly game pick posts.

Once the power indexes are computed for each team, every game of the season (including week 17) is picked using the unweighted rankings. The wrong picks are sorted by matchup ratio, with the games having the largest ratios featured below.

Any game that I regard as not a "real" upset (because a team is resting its starters, or is indirectly affected by such) is not included in this list.

Dishonorable Mention: games that just missed the top 10

• Week 15: The Ravens have one of the top-ranked defenses this season, but when they traveled to San Diego, the Chargers moved the ball up and down the field all game long and made the Ravens look like they were a long ways from deserving the AFC's #2 seed.

• Week 7: The Seahawks traveled to Cleveland, but couldn't leave with a win because they couldn't score 7 points on the Browns.

• Week 2: The Cowboys come back from a 10-point 4th-quarter deficit and steal an overtime win from the 49ers.

• Week 15: The Texans defense didn't show up, T.J. Yates looked like an inexperienced rookie, and the Panthers left Houston with a convincing win over the AFC South division champions.

• Week 2: Early signs of the Ravens road troubles when they travel to Nashville and give up two touchdowns and 4 field goals to the Titans (who only scored 26+ points four times all season).

APR's Top 10 Upsets of the 2011 Season

10. Week 9: Giants 24, Patriots 20 (ρ=1.1663)
    Two sacks and 21 incompletions (including a couple interceptions) add up to probably Tom Brady's worst game of the season. Factor in 2 lost fumbles, and the Patriots just gave the Giants too many chances to win this game.

9. Week 15: Titans 13, Colts 27 (ρ=1.1742)
   An injured Matt Hasselbeck, an ineffective Jake Locker, and a Colts defense that finally put a whole game together finally got the Colts a win, and cost the Titans a playoff spot.

8. Week 14: 49ers 19, Cardinals 21 (ρ=1.1930)
   The 49ers have had trouble scoring points, especially on the road. Which means that (as with this game) it may only take a handful of big plays to beat them. Losing this game meant the 49ers had to win out to clinch the #2 seed over the Saints.

7. Week 3: Falcons 13, Buccaneers 16 (ρ=1.2068)
   The Buccaneers were actually a unanimous pick to win this game, but in hindsight, it has to be counted as a pretty embarrassing loss for the Falcons. This is the only game of the season the Buccaneers' opponent didn't score at least 17 points.

6. Week 7: Ravens 7, Jaguars 12 (ρ=1.2167)
   Unlike the Ravens' other road losses this season, their defense did a fine job in this game. But their offense didn't even generate 150 yards and couldn't put up enough points to out-score the Jaguars four field goals.

5. Week 2: Patriots 31, Bills 34 (ρ=1.2179)
   The Patriots established an early 21-0 lead in this game, but Tom Brady threw 4 interceptions, and that let the Bills back in the game, and gave them a chance to win on a last-second field goal.

4. Week 16: Texans 16, Colts 19 (ρ=1.2831)
   The Texans had too many sacks, too many penalties, and not enough touchdowns in this game. That left the door open for the Colts to take the lead on a late touchdown, and clinch their second win of the season.

3. Week 6: Saints 20, Buccaneers 26 (ρ=1.3163)
   Sean Payton got his knee busted up, Drew Brees threw 3 interceptions, and the Saints gave the Buccaneers their last win of the season.

2. Week 15: Packers 14, Chiefs 19 (ρ=1.3215)
   It's tempting to blame the Packers' defense for this loss, but their play here is comparable to the way they've played all season—they gave up a lot of yards, but not many points. The real problem was on the other side of the ball. The Packers' patchwork offensive line gave up 4 sacks, and their receivers dropped too many passes. The result was Aaron Rodgers posting a comletion ratio under 50% for just the 3rd start of his career, and the only game this season the Packers didn't score at least 24 points.

1. Week 8: Saints 21, Rams 31 (ρ=1.3721)
   Drew Brees got sacked a season-record 6 times in this game, threw 2 interceptions, and generally made the Rams' defense look like world-beaters. This makes 3 seasons in a row (2010, 2009) that the Saints are on the losing end of the season's biggest upset.

Eliminated Games

Most teams had something to play for right down to the end of the season, so no games were eliminated from the rankings this year.

Biggest Upsets According to the Line

Winning teams in bold. Teams favored by 10 or more points were 34-3-0 this year.

Week	Game	Line
8	Saints 21, Rams 31	Saints -15½
10	Cardinals 21, Eagles 17	Eagles -14
15	Packers 14, Chiefs 19	Packers -14
5	Seahawks 36, Giants 25	Giants -9½
3	Patriots 31, Bills 34	Patriots -9
9	Giants 24, Patriots 20	Patriots -8½
13	Chiefs 10, Bears 3	Bears -8
7	Ravens 7, Jaguars 12	Ravens -8
9	Bears 30, Eagles 24	Eagles -8
4	49ers 24, Eagles 23	Eagles -7½
9	Broncos 38, Raiders 24	Raiders -7½

NFL Wrapup: Top 10 Upsets of the Regular Season

How Upsets Were Determined

First, the power rankings for each team was determined, using the first 16 weeks of play (the final week of games is left out to avoid skewing the data with the results of games where teams are resting their starters, or otherwise not trying).

However, unlike the weekly power rankings, which give more weight to recent games than ones earlier in the season, the power rankings for the season upsets are unweighted—all game results count equally. This means that the matchup ratio values (ρ) below will not correspond to the matchup ratios given in the respective game pick posts.

Once the power rankings are computed, every game of the season is picked using those rankings. The wrong picks are then sorted by matchup ratio, with the games featuring the largest ratios featured below.

Any game that is not a "real" upset (because a team is resting its starters, or is indirectly affected by such) is removed from the list.

Dishonorable Mention: some games that missed the top-10 cut

• Week 14: The Jets defense held the Dolphins to just 10 points, but that wasn't enough for their offense that only managed 6.

• Week 3: Janikowski misses 3 field goals, and the resurgent Raiders can't get past the struggling Cardinals.

• Week 16: The Cowboys spot the Cardinals 21 points, and can't recover.

• Week 4: Chris Johnson has a bad day, and Titans' turnovers give the Broncos enough for a win.

• Week 4: The Redskins knock Michael Vick out of the game, and Kevin Kolb can't produce enough offense for the Eagles to pull out a win.

The Top 10 Upsets of the 2010 Season

10. Week 7: Redskins 17, Bears 14 (ρ=1.1471)
    The Bears' offense had probably their worst game of the season, generating 7 punts, 6 turnovers, and 4 sacks. This game was only close because McNabb threw a couple interceptions.

9. Week 6: Dolphins 23, Packers 20 (OT) (ρ=1.1475)
   The The Packers have had one of the best defenses in the league this year, giving up the fewest points of any team except the Steelers. But in this game, the Packers' run defense struggled, which let the Dolphins control the ball and keep it away from the Packers' struggling offense.

8. Week 14: Packers 3, Lions 7 (ρ=1.1595)
   Easily the most egregious example of the Packers' struggling offense. This game cost them a chance to win their division, and isn't ranked higher on this list only because the Lions finished the season on a 4-game winning streak.

7. Week 3: Chargers 20, Seahawks 27 (ρ=1.1717)
   How do you generate more than 500 yards of offense and yet only have 20 points on the scoreboard? Three lost fumbles, two interceptions, and a failed 4th-down conversion are a good start. The Chargers' special teams took a big chunk of the blame for this loss, but that's a whole lot of offensive futility for a team that was supposed to win their division.

6. Week 10: Chiefs 29, Broncos 49 (ρ=1.1973)
   Part of the Chiefs resurgence this year has been a good, or at least adequate defense. They are 9-1 when they hold their opponent to 20 or fewer points. But the Chiefs also had a couple of defensive breakdowns this season, and this was the biggest, giving up 7 touchdowns to the Broncos offense that only made it past 28 points three times all season.

5. Week 2: Ravens 10, Bengals 15 (ρ=1.2160)
   Back in week 2, this didn't seem like that much of an upset—the Bengals were the defending AFC North champions, they were supposed to win games like this. But in hindsight, it should've been a red flag that the Bengals could only score 15 points in spite of intercepting Joe Flacco 4 times.

4. Week 5: Packers 13, Redskins 16 (OT) (ρ=1.2170)
   More offensive struggles for the Packers, and again the Redskins manage to catch their opponent having one of their worst games of the season.

3. Week 9: Patriots 14, Browns 34 (ρ=1.2349)
   Perhaps the Patriots were looking ahead to the game at the Steelers that followed this one. But somehow the Browns (and particularly Peyton Hillis) were the only team this season that was really able to expose the Patriots unimpressive defense this season.

2. Week 6: Seahawks 23, Bears 20 (ρ=1.2566)
   Unlike Week 7's Redskins @ Bears game, the Bears didn't have any turnovers in this game. But Cutler was sacked 6 times (including once for a safety), and the offense could only sustain four drives, and going 3-4 on field goal tries. The Seahawks only had three sustained drives, but they all finished with a touchdown, and that was enough to put them by the struggling Bears.

1. Week 5: Saints 20, Cardinals 30 (ρ=1.2708)
   The Saints had three turnovers in this game, and the Cardinals turned them all into touchdowns. As the Cowboys found out on Christmas, even the Cardinals can get a win when you spot them 21 easy points.

Eliminated Games

This season, the only eliminated game was the Cowboys week 17 defeat of the Eagles, which would have otherwise appeared in the "Dishonorable Mention" section.

Biggest Upsets According to the Line

Week	Game	Line
10	Cowboys 33, Giants 20	Giants -14
16	Vikings 24, Eagles 14	Eagles -14
7	Browns 30, Saints 17	Saints -13½
13	Raiders 28, Chargers 13	Chargers -13
17	Buccaneers 23, Saints 13	Saints -9
2	Bears 27, Cowboys 20	Cowboys -8½
4	Colts 28, Jaguars 31	Colts -8½
6	Chargers 17, Rams 20	Chargers -8½
16	Chargers 20, Bengals 34	Chargers -7½

NFL Wrapup: Top 10 Upsets

Determining Upset Magnatude

When power index values are computed for the purposes of weekly power rankings and picks, the values for each game are weighted so that older games matter less than more recent games.

Since it makes more sense to evaluate upsets in the context of the whole season, all games are given equal weight for purposes of this post. This means the matchup ratio (ρ) given below will usually not be the same as the one posted when the game was originally picked.

Also, in order to avoid some of the weirdness associated with the end of the season (e.g., teams resting in preparation for the playoffs), the games in the final week of the season were not included in the power index computations.

Determining the Top 10 Upsets

Once the power index values have been computed for each team, the full season of games was examined, and all games where the lower-ranked team won were selected. The "upset games" se were then sorted by the ratio of the teams powers (higher divided by lower), and the games with the biggest ratios selected for this list.

Dishonorable Mention: some games that missed the cut

There are some notable upsets outside the top 10 that deserve at least a mention:

• Week 13: The Patriots travel to Miami looking for their second road win of the season, and come away denied.
• Week 9: The Packers give the Buccaneers their first win.
• Week 13: The Steelers can't stop the Raiders in Pittsburgh.
• Week 13: The 49ers can't get a win in Seattle.
• Week 11: The Bengals faltering offense can't outscore the Raiders.

The Top 10 Upsets of the 2009 Season

As determined by the unweighted APR power indexes from week 16.

10. Week 11: Browns 37, Lions 38 (ρ=1.6037)
    This looks like more of an upset now thanks to the Browns finishing on a 4-game winning streak. But as an example of utter ineptitude on the part of the losing team, it surely qualifies. Is there another example, ever, of a defense getting called for pass interference on a Hail Mary?

9. Week 16: Vikings 30, Bears 36 (ρ=1.6171)
   The Vikings were still alive for the #1 seed going into this game, and needed a win to maintain control over the #2 seed. Instead, they lost their third road game in four weeks, and only clinched a bye thanks to a stunning collapse by the Eagles in week 17.

8. Week 10: Broncos 17, Redskins 27 (ρ=1.7181)
   This was the game Chris Simms had to finish because Kyle Orton got hurt. This was also the game where the Redskins tried their "no way that's going to work" fake punt and it worked. What's worse, this wasn't even the biggest upset of the year for the Broncos.

7. Week 14: Steelers 6, Browns 13 (ρ=1.7331)
   It was late in the season, the Steelers were coming off a couple embarrassing losses, but they were still in the thick of the wildcard race. All they needed to do to get back on track for the playoffs was to take care of business against the 1-11 Browns. Instead, the Browns sacked Roethlisberger eight times, the Steelers could only put up 6 points, and they went home with a third embarrassing loss.

6. Week 15: Raiders 20, Broncos 19 (ρ=1.7529)
   The in spite of a 2-5 stretch, in week 15 the Broncos were still alive for the playoffs. Taking care of the 4-9 Raiders at home would be a good first step in getting things turned around. Instead, the Raiders got 241 yards rushing, and even JaMarcus Russell managed to throw a touchdown.

5. Week 3: Redskins 14, Lions 19 (ρ=1.7964)
   The Redskins actually had a pretty decent defense this season, although this game is not a good example. Matt Stafford threw for 241 yards and a touchdown, Kevin Smith ran for 101 yards, and it was just too much for the Redskins' struggling offense to overcome.

4. Week 11: Steelers 24, Chiefs 27 (ρ=1.9538)
   The Steelers were terrible on special teams this year, and really struggled on defense when Troy Polamalu was out. Both weaknesses contributed to the Steelers biggest upset of the season.

3. Week 6: Eagles 9, Raiders 13 (ρ=2.0861)
   The Eagles' week 17 shutout was not a total fluke. This is another example of a game where they just couldn't get much going offensively. This was one of just two games where the Raiders didn't give up at least 16 points.

2. Week 17: Chiefs 44, Broncos 24 (ρ=2.1695)
   Either Jamaal Charles (259 yards rushing in this game) is one of the break-out stars of the 2009 season, or the Broncos are really, really bad at run defense. We'll have to wait until September to find out about Jammal Charles, but there's no question the Broncos playoff hopes were snuffed out in part because they couldn't stop Jamaal Charles, Michael Bush, and Darren McFadden (the last two doing most of the damage for the Raiders in game 6, above).

1. Week 16: Buccaneers 20, Saints 17 (ρ=2.5171)
   For much of the season, the Saints plowed through their competition like they were playing at another level. But as the season wore on, outcomes started getting closer and closer, until finally, with the #1 seed still in play, they lost to one of the worst teams in the league.

Eliminated Games

The following games were elminated from contention because one team pulled its starters, or was indirectly affected by such a team.

• Week 10: Jaguars 24, Jets 22 (ρ=1.6275)
  A "win" over the Colts made the Jets look better than they really are. This was something of an upset, but it doesn't belong in the top 10.

• Week 17: Colts 7, Bills 30 (ρ=1.7270)
  How much did it matter that the Colts were resting their starters? This was only the fifth game of the season the Bills managed to scored more than 17 points.

NFL Wrapup: The Top 10 Upsets, as Determined by APR

Determining Upset Magnatude

Originally, I was going to measure upset magnatude using the match-up ratio (the "ρ" value) originally published for the game. But after some (unposted) analysis, it seems clear that the match-up ratios are not comparable from week-to-week. They start out very high at the start of the season, and decline as it goes on.

So the first modification I made was to use the APR power index values from the second-to-last week of the season (I avoided the last week to rule out anomolous effects of teams resting their starters). However, the normal APR algorithm gives less weight to early season games.

Rather than try to justify why the week 2 Chargers @ Broncos game was one of the top-10 upsets of the season, I decided to use the unweighted version of APR power indexes, which gives all games played equal weight.

Determining the Top 10 Upsets

Using the unweighted APR power indexes for week 17, a list of all games where the predicted winner lost was compiled. This list was then sorted according to each game's match-up ratio (ρ).

Any loss that was (in my opinion) attributable to teams not playing all-out was eliminated from the list. The top 10 games from this list is presented below.

The Top 10 Upsets of the 2008 Season

As determined by the unweighted APR power indexes from week 16.

10. Week 5: Buccaneers 13, Broncos 16 (ρ=1.1168)
    From week 3 to week 15, APR had the Buccaneers ranked in the top 10. Maybe they just weren't ready to play at Mile High, but somehow the Buccaneers let the Broncos give them their second loss.

9. Week 16: Jets 3, Seahawks 13 (ρ=1.1312)
   Because the Jets couldn't put up two touchdowns on the Seahawks, they went from "win and you're in" to "win (and with help) you're in". The win and the help never came.

8. Week 3: Jaguars 23, Colts 21 (ρ=1.1383)
   The Jaguars won just 5 games this year, and this was one of them. It's hard to argue against Peyton Manning as MVP when a key loss like this is largely attributable to Manning's early season health problems.

7. Week 7: Jets 13, Raiders 16 (ρ=1.1385)
   Because the Jets couldn't put up two touchdowns on the Raiders... yeah, there seems to be a theme here. You might argue whether Jets @ Seahawks or Jets @ Raiders is the bigger upset, but they're both pretty bad.

6. Week 11: Broncos 24, Falcons 20 (ρ=1.1398)
   The Falcons had a chance at the #2 seed going into week 17. If they had won this game (their only home loss of the season), they would have had a much better chance.

5. Week 12: Jets 34, Titans 13 (ρ=1.1398)
   At the time, this didn't seem like that much of an upset. But that was (right) before the Jets went on a 1-4 skid, and finished out of the playoffs.

4. Week 17: Raiders 31, Buccaneers 24 (ρ=1.2029)
   Coming in to week 17, the Buccaneers still had a chance for the playoffs (and would've been in, had they won). All they had to do was beat the 4-11 Raiders. But there was no defense, no win, and no playoffs.

3. Week 6: Rams 19, Redskins 17 (ρ=1.2192)
   It says something about how bad the Rams were this year that this game is on this list in spite of the Redskins late-season troubles.

2. Week 6: Giants 14, Browns 35 (ρ=1.2483)
   Easily the low-point to the Giants season. Given the way the offense was struggling (Eli Manning threw 3 interceptions), the defense would've needed a masterful performance to keep them in the game. Instead, the Browns scored at will for much of the game.

1. Week 7: Cowboys 14, Rams 34 (ρ=1.3023)
   Brad Johnson will get his fair share of blame for this loss (the Cowboys didn't have a second drive for more than 21 yards until garbage time). But the defense was at fault, too: the Rams scored on their first 3 drives, and didn't punt for the second time until the 3rd quarter.

   If the Cowboys had won this game, they wouldn't have needed a win over the Eagles in week 17 to get in the playoffs.

Eliminated Games

The only game eliminated from the above list is the Titan's week 15 loss to the Texans (which would have been the #5 upset). At that point in the season, the Titans had already clinched the AFC South and a bye week, and only needed to beat the Steelers in week 16 to clinch the #1 seed in the playoffs. This was a meaningless game for the Titans.