NFL Week 1 Picks

Hey, kids—it's time for week 1 picks!

Like last year, week 1 picks will be based on Pythagorean Projection. As usual, picks are sorted by the confidence factor of the left-most column, from highest to lowest.

• Pythag (std): these picks are based on the standard Pythagorean Projection. The confidence numbers are just the differences of the projection values for each team.

• Pythag (R/H): these picks are based on a variation of the Pythagorean Projection. Two projections are created for each team, splitting teams based on road games and home games. Here, the road projection of the road team is compared to the home projection of the home team.

• The untitiled column with the asterisks indicate where the standard and R/H projections differ.

• Line: as usual, line values are taken from yahoo, and are used for comparison purposes only.

Game	Pythag (std)	Pythag (R/H)		Line
Cardinals @ Rams	Cardinals (0.4809)	Cardinals (0.5777)		Cardinals -4
Chargers @ Chiefs	Chargers (0.4004)	Chargers (0.5264)		Chargers -5
Cowboys @ Redskins	Cowboys (0.3399)	Cowboys (0.3062)		Cowboys -3½
49ers @ Seahawks	49ers (0.2809)	Seahawks (0.1561)	*	49ers -3
Raiders @ Titans	Titans (0.2503)	Titans (0.4226)		Titans -6½
Lions @ Bears	Bears (0.2376)	Bears (0.5137)		Bears -6
Bengals @ Patriots	Patriots (0.1949)	Patriots (0.5475)		Patriots -4
Broncos @ Jaguars	Broncos (0.1585)	Broncos (0.0256)		Jaguars -2½
Packers @ Eagles	Packers (0.1000)	Packers (0.0851)		Packers -3
Dolphins @ Bills	Dolphins (0.0879)	Bills (0.1129)	*	Dolphins -3
Colts @ Texans	Colts (0.0830)	Colts (0.1400)		Colts -2½
Panthers @ Giants	Panthers (0.0490)	Giants (0.0202)	*	Giants -7
Browns @ Buccaneers	Browns (0.0306)	Browns (0.0751)		Buccaneers -3
Falcons @ Steelers	Steelers (0.0097)	Steelers (0.1108)		Falcons -2½
Ravens @ Jets	Ravens (0.0076)	Jets (0.2208)	*	Jets -2½
Vikings @ Saints	Vikings (0.0034)	Saints (0.1562)	*	Saints -4½

Comments:

• I will update with the lines for the two Monday Night games as soon as I see them up. Update: done.

• The 49ers went just 2-6 on the road last year. One of those 6 losses was at the Seahawks. They may be the favorite to win the NFC West, but this is a game the 49ers need to win if that is to mean anything more than a one-and-done appearance on Wildcard Weekend.

• Last year, the Vikings faded a bit towards the end of the season, going 0-3 in prime time road games (at least two of which should have been reasonably easy wins).

• The Saints had their late-season troubles too, finishing 0-3 while the #1 seed was still open. They also didn't really look that good in the NFC Championship Game—the only reason they were in it at the end is because the Vikings kept turning the ball over to them.

NFL: How points were scored in the 2009 regular season

I went through PFR's list of box score data for every regular season game played in the 2009 season, and compiled the following tallies:

Unit	Type	#	Points	Total
Offense	Passing TD	711	4266
	Rushing TD	428	2568
	2-point conversion	24	48	6882
Defense	Pick-6	48	288
	Fumble-6	26	156
	Safety	14	28	472
Special	Field goals	756	2268
Teams	Extra points	1163	1163
	Kickoff return	18	108
	Punt return	10	60
	Blocked punt return	4	24
	Blocked FG return	2	12	3635
Total				10989

Comments:

• PFR's data seems to be mostly OK, although there are some obvious errors. This game, for example, has a touchdown being scored on a "-21 yard fumble return".

• All passing and rushing touchdowns are credited to the offense, even though there was at least one scored by special teams. There's no reliable way to tell when a touchdown is scored on special teams using PFR's score format.

• Another deficiency of PFR's score format: when a conversion attempt fails after a touchdown, it doesn't indicate whether it was an extra point try (and whether it was a bad snap, a bad kick, or a block), or whether it was a 2-point try.

  There were 60 failed conversions. According to this article [nytimes.com], there were 53 2-point conversion tries this season, which means that 29 failed 2-point conversions and 31 failed extra points.

  That gives a 97.6% success rate for extra points, and a 45.3% success rate for 2-point conversions. That may not seem like much, but getting 2 points on success doubles the effectiveness (for an extra point, expected value is .976, for a 2-point conversion, expected value is .906). Of course, that's over the course of a season for 32 teams. Which doesn't always help in one game, one team, one play, for a single good-or-bad outcome.

• I've said before I'm generally not a big fan of 2-point conversions; I was actually rather surprised by how infrequently they were attempted (53 tries/1163 TDs = 4.6% of the time).

• I was also surprised by how low the defensive scoring was compared to offense and special teams. As important as a defensive score can be to the course of a game, in terms of total points scored, it's pretty minor.

• More scoring data coming as soon as I get the box score information parsed out to a more convenient format.

NFL Week 1 Power Rankings

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR

Note that this is using a new (and hopefully improved) margin power function, so these power values are not comparable to the values from last year.

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1	Dallas Cowboys	3.3357	1-0	won @ Buccaneers by 13
2	Minnesota Vikings	3.3224	1-0	won @ Browns by 14
3	New York Jets	3.2824	1-0	won @ Texans by 17
4	Atlanta Falcons	3.1846	1-0	won vs Dolphins by 12
5	Baltimore Ravens	3.1592	1-0	won vs Chiefs by 14
6	Philadelphia Eagles	3.1364	1-0	won @ Panthers by 28
7	New Orleans Saints	3.1085	1-0	won vs Lions by 18
8	Seattle Seahawks	2.9823	1-0	won vs Rams by 28
T9	Green Bay Packers	2.5529	1-0	won vs Bears by 6
T9	New York Giants	2.5529	1-0	won vs Redskins by 6
T11	Denver Bronocs	1.9296	1-0	won @ Bengals by 5
T11	San Diego Chargers	1.9296	1-0	won @ Raiders by 4
T11	San Francisco 49ers	1.9296	1-0	won @ Cardinals by 4
T14	Indianapolis Colts	1.8349	1-0	won vs Jaguars by 2
T14	New England Patriots	1.8349	1-0	won vs Bills by 1
T14	Pittsburgh Steelers	1.8349	1-0	won vs Titans by 3
T17	Buffalo Bills	0.8671	0-1	lost @ Patriots by 1
T17	Jacksonville Jaguars	0.8671	0-1	lost @ Colts by 2
T17	Tennessee Titans	0.8671	0-1	lost @ Steelers by 3
T20	Cincinnati Bengals	0.7369	0-1	lost vs Broncos by 5
T20	Arizona Cardinals	0.7369	0-1	lost vs 49ers by 4
T20	Oakland Raiders	0.7369	0-1	lost vs Chargers by 4
T23	Chigaco Bears	0.6233	0-1	lost @ Packers by 6
T23	Washington Redskins	0.6233	0-1	lost @ Giants by 6
25	Miami Dolphins	0.4391	0-1	lost @ Falcons by 12
26	Kansas City Chiefs	0.4330	0-1	lost @ Ravens by 14
27	Detroit Lions	0.4210	0-1	lost @ Saints by 18
28	St. Louis Rams	0.3917	0-1	lost @ Seahawks by 28
29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.3706	0-1	lost vs Cowboys by 13
30	Cleveland Browns	0.3680	0-1	lost vs Vikings by 14
31	Houston Texans	0.3603	0-1	lost vs Jets by 17
32	Carolina Panthers	0.3329	0-1	lost vs Eagles by 28

Comments

• These rankings are based on one game (no preseason data was included). Don't freak out if you think your team is ranked too low; things will settle out as more games are played.

• In particular, all 1-0 teams are ranked above all 0-1 teams; I'm sure we'll see teams like the Titans and Bears move up in short order, while the Broncos will... find their own level as well.

• Note that there are a number of ties in the rankings.

• If you followed the NFL last year, you may want to look at last year's Week 1 Power Rankings for comparison.

NFL Week 1 Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Why yes, now that you mention it—I am ready for some football.

Picks for week 1. As usual, APR and SRS require at least a week's worth of games before they can work, so I'm picking week 1 using the Pythagorean projection method (described here). The usual APR/SRS picks will start next week.

Line data is from yahoo.com and are for comparison purposes only.

Game	Pythagorean	Line
Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens	Ravens -7.5800	Ravens -13
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints	Saints -6.7500	Saints -13
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders	Chargers -5.6193	Chargers -9
Minnesota Vikings @ Cleveland Browns	Vikings -4.8335	Vikings -4
Washington Redskins @ New York Giants	Giants -4.3668	Giants -6½
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts	Colts -3.9891	Colts -7
Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals	Broncos -2.9811	Bengals -4½
St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks	Seahawks -2.7913	Seahawks -8½
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots	Patriots -2.7528	Patriots -10½
New York Jets @ Houston Texans	Jets -1.9102	Texans -5
Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers	Eagles -1.1273	Eagles -1
Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Buccaneers -1.1266	Cowboys -6
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals	Cardinals -1.1224	Cardinals -6½
Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons	Falcons -0.9255	Falcons -4
Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers	Titans -0.2110	Titans -6
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers	Packers -0.1695	Packers -3½

Comments

• The numbers under the Pythagorean column represent the differences in projected wins for the corresponding teams (i.e., the units are 'Games Won', and not comparable to the 'points scored' line values).

• Disagreements on Broncos @ Bengals, Jets @ Texans, and Cowboys @ Buccaneers. Note that in all 3 cases, the teams favored by Pythagorean projection have quarterback issues.

NFL Wrapup: APR vs. the Line

Back in week 6, I noticed that it seemed like often on the split picks, it was the APR taking the road team, and the Line taking the home team. On further review, I was right. Here's how the APR vs. Line split picks break down for the 2008 season.

APR Takes the Home Team

There were 5 games where APR picked the home team and the Line picked the road team. APR was 4-1 in these picks (missing only Colts @ Vikings in week 2).

In this and following tables, the winning team is shown in bold.

Week	Visitor	Home
2	Colts (line)	@ Vikings (APR, SRS)
2	Chargers (Line)	@ Broncos (APR, SRS)
3	Panthers (Line)	@ Vikings (APR, SRS)
4	Eagles (SRS, Line)	@ Bears (APR)
6	Cowboys (SRS, Line)	@ Cardinals (APR)

Beware of drawing conclusions from such a small sample. Note that four of these were very close games—only Panthers @ Vikings was decided by more than 6 points. And Chargers @ Broncos was the infamous "Ed Hochuli 'no fumble' game".

APR Takes the Road Team

There were 48 of these games, and APR was 22-26 in these picks. I'm not going to go through all 48 games, but there are a few worth mentioning.

• The NFC South was 27-5 at home, and 13-19 on the road:

  Week	Visitor	Home
  2	Falcons (APR, SRS)	@ Buccaneers (Line)
  6	Panthers (APR, SRS)	@ Buccaneers (Line)
  14	Falcons (APR, SRS)	@ Saints (Line)
  14	Buccaneers (APR, SRS)	@ Panthers (Line)
  2	Saints (APR, SRS)	@ Redskins (Line)
  2	Bears (APR, SRS)	@ Panthers (Line)
  5	Buccaneers (APR, SRS)	@ Broncos (Line)
  8	Buccaneers (APR, SRS)	@ Cowboys (Line)
  12	Packers (APR, SRS)	@ Saints
  15	Saints (APR, SRS)	@ Bears (Line)

• Jet lag is a bummer:

  Week	Visitor	Home
  3	Cardinals (APR, SRS)	@ Redskins (Line)
  4	Cardinals (APR, SRS)	@ Jets (Line)
  5	Bills (APR, SRS)	@ Cardinals (Line)
  7	Broncos (APR, SRS)	@ Patriots (Line)
  17	Redskins (APR, SRS)	@ 49ers (Line)

• The Ravens had some issues on the road agains good teams:

  Week	Visitor	Home
  4	Ravens (APR, SRS)	@ Steelers (Line)
  6	Ravens (APR, SRS)	@ Colts (Line)
  11	Ravens (APR)	@ Giants (SRS, Line)

Conclusions:

This is more evidence that APR doesn't pick the home team often enough. I think the answer might be to separate the power indexes into "home" and "visitor" power. Clearly there are some teams that just do much better at home than on the road.

And I see browsing the current standings, there are a handful of teams (Dolphins, Patriots, Bills, Browns, Jaguars, and Raiders) that actually had better road records than home records.

NFL Wrapup: APR Strength of Schedule

2008 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.

How This Was Computed

1. The unweighted version of APR (i.e., all games have the same weight) is computed for all regular season games.

2. The 16-game schedules are collated for each team.

3. For each schedule, every team on the schedule is mapped to its power index computed in step 1. This yields a list of 16 power index values for each team (divisional opponents are counted twice; no adjustment is made for home vs away games).

4. The list of power index values is then averaged, yeilding a "Strength of Schedule" power index for each team.

As usual, a higher power index value indicates a more difficult schedule.

The Schedule Power Table

Ordered from weakest schedule (top) to strongest schedule (bottom).

Schedule Power	Team	Playoffs?
1.239	Buffalo Bills
1.244	San Francisco 49ers
1.249	New York Jets
1.251	Miami Dolphins	AFC #3
1.252	New England Patriots
1.262	Arizona Cardinals	NFC #4
1.267	Seattle Seahawks
1.268	Denver Broncos
1.278	Atlanta Falcons	NFC #5
1.281	San Diego Chargers	AFC #4
1.283	New Orleans Saints
1.283	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1.283	Tennessee Titans	AFC #1
1.284	St. Louis Rams
1.290	Carolina Panthers	NFC #2
1.293	Washington Redskins
1.293	Chicago Bears
1.294	New York Giants	AFC #1
1.295	Philadelphia Eagles	NFC #6
1.296	Green Bay Packers
1.297	Oakland Raiders
1.299	Kansas City Chiefs
1.302	Dallas Cowboys
1.303	Minnesota Vikings	NFC #3
1.311	Baltimore Ravens	AFC #6
1.314	Indianapolis Colts	AFC #5
1.315	Houston Texans
1.321	Jacksonville Jaguars
1.328	Detroit Lions
1.328	Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC #2
1.344	Cincinnati Bengals
1.346	Cleveland Browns

Comments:

• The range of values is actually pretty compact; relatively small differences in schedules can make a big difference in where a team ends up (c.f. the Titans compared to the rest of the AFC South).

• Every AFC East team is in the weakest 8, and all are weaker the Arizona Cardinals and the San Diego Chargers.

• Every NFC West team except the St. Louis Rams is also in the weakest 8.

• Every AFC North team is in the strongest 8.

• Every AFC South team except the Tennessee Titans is also in the stronget 8.

• There's no obvious correlation between schedule power and playoff appearance—the playoff teams seem to be scattered pretty evenly; and both the #1 seeds and the NFC #2 seed are pretty near the middle of the pack.

• The Browns and Bengals placement make it hard for the Lions to argue that they went winless because of injuries, a tough schedule, and a bad team (though to be fair, the Browns got their four wins before Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn were both on IR).

NFL Wrapup: APR Picks by Team

2008 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.

APR's pick standings by team for the 2008 season. Because there are no power indexes until after the first week of play, only 15 weeks of play were picked.

Record	Team(s)	Comments
15-0-0	Lions	Unsurprisingly, APR works best on bad teams that lose a lot, and good teams that win a lot.
14-1-0	Seahawks	ibid
12-2-1	Eagles	12 correctly-picked games is a strong argument that the Eagles deserved their high rank after all (so is making it to the NFC Championship game).
12-3-0	Chiefs, Patriots, Cardinals, Rams	Excellent results, considering the Patriots went from #24 (week 6) to #6 (week 17), and the Cardinals went from #5 (week 5) to #24 (week 16).
11-4	Cowboys, Chargers, 49ers, Titans	The Chargers are another team that seemed to be over-rated based on their record, but 11 correct picks speaks otherwise.
10-4-1	Bengals	They are who APR thought they were.
10-5-0	Ravens, Bears, Jaguars, Steelers	16 teams were picked 10-5 (66.7%) or better, which is pretty good...
9-6-0	Vikings, Browns, Texans, Panthers, Raiders, Saints, Bills, Giants, Colts, Dolphins	...but that means 16 teams were picked 9-6 (60%) or worse, which is not so good.
8-7-0	Packers, Jets, Falcons, Redskins	The Packers (#5 to #18), Jets (#4 to #19), and Redskins (#1 to #22) all had late season collapses, and APR did not adjust quickly enough.
7-8-0	Buccaneers	The Bucs did not travel well. Through week 15, they were 6-0 at home, but just 3-5 on the road. And then, for good measure, they dropped their last two home games.
6-9-0	Broncos	The Broncos win APR's "Upset King of 2008" award. They were 5-4 against teams 8-8 or better, but just 3-4 against teams with losing records, including an inexcusable loss to the 2-14 Chiefs. How do you pick a team like that?

Comments:

• APR uses a simple exponential decay rate to discount older games. I suspect that this gives early games too much weight and late games too little. A more S-shaped curve will probably yield better results.

• Under the current configuration, APR's worst per-team record is for the 1987 Seahawks and 1994 Bills (both 2-13).

NFL Wrapup: The Top 10 Upsets, as Determined by APR

Determining Upset Magnatude

Originally, I was going to measure upset magnatude using the match-up ratio (the "ρ" value) originally published for the game. But after some (unposted) analysis, it seems clear that the match-up ratios are not comparable from week-to-week. They start out very high at the start of the season, and decline as it goes on.

So the first modification I made was to use the APR power index values from the second-to-last week of the season (I avoided the last week to rule out anomolous effects of teams resting their starters). However, the normal APR algorithm gives less weight to early season games.

Rather than try to justify why the week 2 Chargers @ Broncos game was one of the top-10 upsets of the season, I decided to use the unweighted version of APR power indexes, which gives all games played equal weight.

Determining the Top 10 Upsets

Using the unweighted APR power indexes for week 17, a list of all games where the predicted winner lost was compiled. This list was then sorted according to each game's match-up ratio (ρ).

Any loss that was (in my opinion) attributable to teams not playing all-out was eliminated from the list. The top 10 games from this list is presented below.

The Top 10 Upsets of the 2008 Season

As determined by the unweighted APR power indexes from week 16.

10. Week 5: Buccaneers 13, Broncos 16 (ρ=1.1168)
    From week 3 to week 15, APR had the Buccaneers ranked in the top 10. Maybe they just weren't ready to play at Mile High, but somehow the Buccaneers let the Broncos give them their second loss.

9. Week 16: Jets 3, Seahawks 13 (ρ=1.1312)
   Because the Jets couldn't put up two touchdowns on the Seahawks, they went from "win and you're in" to "win (and with help) you're in". The win and the help never came.

8. Week 3: Jaguars 23, Colts 21 (ρ=1.1383)
   The Jaguars won just 5 games this year, and this was one of them. It's hard to argue against Peyton Manning as MVP when a key loss like this is largely attributable to Manning's early season health problems.

7. Week 7: Jets 13, Raiders 16 (ρ=1.1385)
   Because the Jets couldn't put up two touchdowns on the Raiders... yeah, there seems to be a theme here. You might argue whether Jets @ Seahawks or Jets @ Raiders is the bigger upset, but they're both pretty bad.

6. Week 11: Broncos 24, Falcons 20 (ρ=1.1398)
   The Falcons had a chance at the #2 seed going into week 17. If they had won this game (their only home loss of the season), they would have had a much better chance.

5. Week 12: Jets 34, Titans 13 (ρ=1.1398)
   At the time, this didn't seem like that much of an upset. But that was (right) before the Jets went on a 1-4 skid, and finished out of the playoffs.

4. Week 17: Raiders 31, Buccaneers 24 (ρ=1.2029)
   Coming in to week 17, the Buccaneers still had a chance for the playoffs (and would've been in, had they won). All they had to do was beat the 4-11 Raiders. But there was no defense, no win, and no playoffs.

3. Week 6: Rams 19, Redskins 17 (ρ=1.2192)
   It says something about how bad the Rams were this year that this game is on this list in spite of the Redskins late-season troubles.

2. Week 6: Giants 14, Browns 35 (ρ=1.2483)
   Easily the low-point to the Giants season. Given the way the offense was struggling (Eli Manning threw 3 interceptions), the defense would've needed a masterful performance to keep them in the game. Instead, the Browns scored at will for much of the game.

1. Week 7: Cowboys 14, Rams 34 (ρ=1.3023)
   Brad Johnson will get his fair share of blame for this loss (the Cowboys didn't have a second drive for more than 21 yards until garbage time). But the defense was at fault, too: the Rams scored on their first 3 drives, and didn't punt for the second time until the 3rd quarter.

   If the Cowboys had won this game, they wouldn't have needed a win over the Eagles in week 17 to get in the playoffs.

Eliminated Games

The only game eliminated from the above list is the Titan's week 15 loss to the Texans (which would have been the #5 upset). At that point in the season, the Titans had already clinched the AFC South and a bye week, and only needed to beat the Steelers in week 16 to clinch the #1 seed in the playoffs. This was a meaningless game for the Titans.

NFL Wrapup: APR vs ESPN

2008 Navigation Links

Starting with week 4, I included a contrast of APR's power rankings with ESPN's weekly power rankings. This is the final installment of the series for the 2008 season, along with a summary of the teams that appeared on these lists.

Teams that ESPN likes more than APR, week 17:

As with last week, no major disagreements. The Broncos (+5) and Cardinals (+7) are the only team with a differential beyond +4.

Teams that APR likes more than ESPN, week 17:

Similarly on this side. The Ravens (-5), Saints (-6) and Packers (-7) are the only teams with a differential beyond -4.

It should also be noted that ESPN is not exactly going out on a limb this week. The Chargers (8-8) and 49ers (7-9) are the only teams ranked above teams with better records.

Teams that ESPN liked more than APR, regular season

There is a definite "halo" effect where in subjective power rankings, teams that did very well the previous season get a healthy "benefit of the doubt" allowance in spite of weak on-the-field performance. It's probably no coincidence all three of these teams were in the playoffs following the 2007 season.

Patriots (6 weeks)

The Patriots had a very odd trajectory with APR. After their week 6 loss to the Chargers, APR dropped them from #12 all the way to #24. The Patriots then stayed in the bottom half of the rankings until their week 12 win over the Dolphins, but regressed on losing to the Steelers.

APR was 12-3 picking games the Patriots played, missing only the two games against the Dolphins and the week 7 game against the Broncos.

Redskins (5 weeks)

APR was very quick to drop the Redskins after their week 9 loss to the Steelers. ESPN took a long time to notice they weren't playing very strong football—ESPN didn't drop the Redskins below #13 until their week 13 loss to the Giants.

Giants (4 weeks)

The Giants struggled early on, needing overtime to beat the Bengals, and then losing to the Browns 3 weeks later. APR kept them out of the top rankings until week 8, after they beat the Steelers.

Also-rans

Bills, Broncos, Cardinals, Dolphins, Steelers (2 weeks), Colts, Jaguars (1 week).

Teams that APR liked more than ESPN, regular season

There is also an "inverse-halo" effect, for teams that are coming off a very bad season.

Ravens (6 weeks)

APR has had the Ravens in the top 5 since week 9. ESPN would probably rank them higher if they weren't playing in the shadow of the Steelers.

Dolphins (4 weeks)

APR may have sometimes overrated the Dolphins (they were as high as #3 in week 5), but ESPN never placed them higher than #23 until week 9, in spite of other teams much more worthy of those bottom 10 spots.

Bears (4 weeks)

The Bears actually looked very good early on. They beat the Colts, Eagles, and Vikings, and played close to the Panthers and Falcons (all playoff teams). APR had them as high as #3 after their week 7 win over the Vikings. But then they had a 1-3 stretch starting in week 11 which cost them a spot in the playoffs as well as a spot in APR's top 10.

Also-rans

Eagles, Packers, Vikings (3 weeks), Browns, Chargers, Jets, Saints (1 week).

NFL Week 17 Power Rankings

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (-)	Baltimore Ravens	11-5	1.5144 (LW × 1.003)	won by 20 vs Jaguars
2 (↑1)	Pittsburgh Steelers	12-4	1.4858 (LW × 1.000)	won by 31 vs Browns
3 (↑4)	Indianapolis Colts	12-4	1.4638 (LW × 1.041)	won by 23 vs Titans
4 (-)	New York Giants	12-4	1.4544 (LW × 0.988)	lost by 1 at Vikings
5 (↓3)	Tennessee Titans	13-3	1.4403 (LW × 0.967)	lost by 23 at Colts
6 (↑2)	New England Patriots	11-5	1.4192 (LW × 1.026)	won by 13 at Bills
7 (↑2)	Philadelphia Eagles	9-6-1	1.4137 (LW × 1.024)	won by 38 vs Cowboys
8 (↓2)	Carolina Panthers	12-4	1.4123 (LW × 0.996)	won by 2 at Saints
9 (↓4)	Atlanta Falcons	11-5	1.3947 (LW × 0.965)	won by 4 vs Rams
10 (-)	San Diego Chargers	8-8	1.3914 (LW × 1.010)	won by 31 vs Broncos
11 (-)	Minnesota Vikings	10-6	1.3823 (LW × 1.007)	won by 1 vs Giants
12 (↑4)	Miami Dolphins	11-5	1.3456 (LW × 1.034)	won by 7 at Jets
13 (↓1)	New Orleans Saints	8-8	1.3167 (LW × 0.974)	lost by 2 vs Panthers
14 (↑3)	Houston Texans	8-8	1.3135 (LW × 1.022)	won by 7 vs Bears
15 (↓2)	Dallas Cowboys	9-7	1.2883 (LW × 0.969)	lost by 38 at Eagles
16 (↓1)	Chicago Bears	9-7	1.2741 (LW × 0.978)	lost by 7 at Texans
17 (↑2)	Green Bay Packers	6-10	1.2528 (LW × 0.986)	won by 10 vs Lions
18 (↓4)	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9-7	1.2510 (LW × 0.951)	lost by 7 vs Raiders
19 (↓1)	New York Jets	9-7	1.2431 (LW × 0.977)	lost by 7 vs Dolphins
20 (↑4)	Arizona Cardinals	9-7	1.2272 (LW × 1.025)	won by 13 vs Seahawks
21 (↑1)	San Francisco 49ers	7-9	1.2225 (LW × 1.014)	won by 3 vs Redskins
22 (↓2)	Washington Redskins	8-8	1.2204 (LW × 0.995)	lost by 3 at 49ers
23 (↑5)	Oakland Raiders	5-11	1.2103 (LW × 1.049)	won by 7 at Buccaneers
24 (↑1)	Cincinnati Bengals	4-11-1	1.2053 (LW × 1.010)	won by 10 vs Chiefs
25 (↓4)	Buffalo Bills	7-9	1.1971 (LW × 0.987)	lost by 13 vs Patriots
26 (-)	Jacksonville Jaguars	5-11	1.1718 (LW × 0.995)	lost by 20 at Ravens
27 (↓4)	Denver Broncos	8-8	1.1701 (LW × 0.976)	lost by 31 at Chargers
28 (↓1)	Seattle Seahawks	4-12	1.1513 (LW × 0.991)	lost by 13 at Cardinals
29 (-)	Cleveland Browns	4-12	1.1283 (LW × 0.996)	lost by 31 at Steelers
30 (-)	Kansas City Chiefs	2-14	1.0935 (LW × 0.991)	lost by 10 at Bengals
31 (↑1)	St. Louis Rams	2-14	1.0480 (LW × 1.042)	lost by 4 at Falcons
32 (↓1)	Detroit Lions	0-16	1.0210 (LW × 1.000)	lost by 10 at Packers

Comments:

• Patriots are the highest-ranked team out of the playoffs.

• Cardinals are the lowest-ranked team in the playoffs, and the only playoff team not to finish in the top 12.

• Thanks to the Broncos finishing 8-8, the Cardinals finish as the lowest-ranked team with a winning record.

• The Giants are the only NFC team returning to the playoffs.

• AFC finishes with 6 teams in the top 10, 7 in the bottom 10. The Jets, Texans, and Dolphins are the only teams not in one of those two groups.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:
Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

I'll put the week 17 results in a separate season-recap post.

Historically Bad Team Wrapup

Two new teams in the bottom 20:

Rank	Team	Net Pts	Net Pts/Game
#7	2008 Detroit Lions	-249	-15.56
#18	2008 St. Louis Rams	-233	-14.56

The next 2008 teams are the Cincinnati Bengals (#70) and the Kansas City Chiefs (#92).

Stay Tuned!

FSPI will continue through the playoffs, and I also have some season recap articles to post.

NFL Week 17 Pick Results

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line picks counted correct when the favored team wins; they do not have to beat the spread to count as a win.

Pick results for week 17.

Unanimous picks (10-2)

Correctly picked:

Lions @ Packers

Browns @ Steelers

Panthers @ Saints

Chiefs @ Bengals

Patriots @ Bills

Rams @ Falcons

Jaguars @ Ravens

Cowboys @ Eagles

Seahawks @ Cardinals

Broncos @ Chargers

Not so much:

Titans @ Colts

Both teams mostly played their backups.

Raiders @ Buccaneers

First 14 games: Buccaneers have only one game where they give up more than 24 points. Last two games, they give up 41 and 31. Was the Monte Kiffin situation that much of a distraction?

Split Picks (APR 1-3) (SRS 0-4) (Line 3-1)

Giants (APR, SRS) @ Vikings (Line)

The Giants played their backups for the second half. Even so, the Vikings needed a last-second 50-yard field goal to win the game. It doesn't bode well for the Vikings chances in the playoffs.

Dolphins (APR) @ Jets (SRS, Line)

Favre throws 3 interceptions including a pick 6.

Redskins (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)

For the first time in a long while, Mike Singletary could make the 49ers a team worth watching.

Bears (APR, SRS) @ Texans (Line)

The Bears defense gives up 31 points. That's not good when the Bears offense has only made it to 31 points twice this season.

Standings:

	This week	Overall	%
APR:	11-5	159-80-1	66.5%
SRS:	10-6	150-89-1	62.7%
Line:	13-3	160-78-2	67.1%
Unanimous:	10-2	124-49-1	71.6%

New power rankings, and next weeks picks to come.

NFL Week 17 Picks

2008 Navigation Links

Picks for week 17, based on the week 16 rankings.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line values are taken from yahoo.com, and are for comparison purposes only.

Game	APR	SRS	Line
St. Louis Rams @ Atlanta Falcons	Falcons ρ=1.4364	Falcons δ=21.28	Falcons -14½
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers	Steelers ρ=1.3118	Steelers δ=12.14	Steelers -10½
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens	Ravens ρ=1.2817	Ravens δ=10.98	Ravens -12½
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers	Packers ρ=1.2448	Packers δ=16.92	Packers -9½
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers	Chargers ρ=1.1490	Chargers δ=7.93	Chargers -8½
Oakland Raiders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Buccaneers ρ=1.1401	Buccaneers δ=12.45	Buccaneers -13
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills	Patriots ρ=1.1399	Patriots δ=6.24	Patriots -6½
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals	Bengals ρ=1.0810	Bengals δ=0.71	Bengals -3
New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings	Giants ρ=1.0718	Giants δ=4.49	Vikings -6½
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts	Titans ρ=1.0597	Titans δ=5.83	Titans -3
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints	Panthers ρ=1.0488	Panthers δ=1.53	Panthers -3
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles	Eagles ρ=1.0383	Eagles δ=3.39	Eagles -1½
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals	Cardinals ρ=1.0309	Cardinals δ=4.71	Cardinals -6
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets	Dolphins ρ=1.0233	Jets δ=1.88	Jets -2½
Washington Redskins @ San Francisco 49ers	Redskins ρ=1.0170	Redskins δ=4.35	49ers -3
Chicago Bears @ Houston Texans	Bears ρ=1.0135	Bears δ=4.14	Texans -3

Comments:

• Disagreements for Giants @ Vikings, Dolphins @ Jets, Redskins @ 49ers, and Bears @ Texans.

• APR and SRS do not take into account that some teams have clinched their post-season seeding, and probably won't be playing all-out this week. Titans @ Colts, in particular, is likely to be a battle of the backups after the first or second series for both teams.

• And the Vikings are only favored to win because the Giants have nothing to play for this week. On the other hand, the Vikings will have trouble beating even the Giants' backups if they lose 4 fumbles again.

• Surely the Packers can beat the Lions at Lambeau field. Right? Right?

• The Texans have run hot and cold this season (beating the Titans, then losing to the Raiders), but they are 5-2 at home this season. Of course, the Bears aren't really the type of team to lay down, even if they are likely to be eliminated from the playoffs.

• Amazingly, Mike Singletary has a chance to go 5-4 as head coach this season. If the 49ers have enough sense to sign him on long-term, the Cardinals should have a solid challenger for the NFC West next year.

NFL Week 16 Power Rankings

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (↑1)	Baltimore Ravens	10-5	1.5099 (LW × 1.024)	won by 9 at Cowboys
2 (↑2)	Tennessee Titans	13-2	1.4898 (LW × 1.023)	won by 17 vs Steelers
3 (↓2)	Pittsburgh Steelers	11-4	1.4864 (LW × 0.983)	lost by 17 at Titans
4 (↓1)	New York Giants	12-3	1.4719 (LW × 1.002)	won by 6 vs Panthers
5 (↑3)	Atlanta Falcons	10-5	1.4454 (LW × 1.034)	won by 7 at Vikings
6 (-)	Carolina Panthers	11-4	1.4173 (LW × 0.991)	lost by 6 at Giants
7 (↑2)	Indianapolis Colts	11-4	1.4058 (LW × 1.011)	won by 7 at Jaguars
8 (↑6)	New England Patriots	10-5	1.3826 (LW × 1.045)	won by 40 vs Cardinals
9 (↓2)	Philadelphia Eagles	8-6-1	1.3809 (LW × 0.969)	lost by 7 at Redskins
10 (↑7)	San Diego Chargers	7-8	1.3777 (LW × 1.075)	won by 17 at Buccaneers
11 (↓6)	Minnesota Vikings	9-6	1.3732 (LW × 0.953)	lost by 7 vs Falcons
12 (↑1)	New Orleans Saints	8-7	1.3514 (LW × 1.017)	won by 35 at Lions
13 (↓2)	Dallas Cowboys	9-6	1.3299 (LW × 0.983)	lost by 9 vs Ravens
14 (↓4)	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9-6	1.3154 (LW × 0.956)	lost by 17 vs Chargers
15 (-)	Chicago Bears	9-6	1.3023 (LW × 0.992)	won by 3 vs Packers
16 (↑3)	Miami Dolphins	10-5	1.3019 (LW × 1.040)	won by 7 at Chiefs
17 (↓5)	Houston Texans	7-8	1.2850 (LW × 0.963)	lost by 11 at Raiders
18 (-)	New York Jets	9-6	1.2722 (LW × 0.995)	lost by 10 at Seahawks
19 (↓3)	Green Bay Packers	5-10	1.2711 (LW × 0.986)	lost by 3 at Bears
20 (↑5)	Washington Redskins	8-7	1.2265 (LW × 1.048)	won by 7 vs Eagles
21 (↑5)	Buffalo Bills	7-8	1.2130 (LW × 1.055)	won by 7 at Broncos
22 (↑1)	San Francisco 49ers	6-9	1.2059 (LW × 1.007)	won by 1 at Rams
23 (↓3)	Denver Broncos	8-7	1.1990 (LW × 0.976)	lost by 7 vs Bills
24 (↓3)	Arizona Cardinals	8-7	1.1977 (LW × 0.981)	lost by 40 at Patriots
25 (↑2)	Cincinnati Bengals	3-11-1	1.1933 (LW × 1.049)	won by 14 at Browns
26 (↓4)	Jacksonville Jaguars	5-10	1.1780 (LW × 0.973)	lost by 7 vs Colts
27 (↑1)	Seattle Seahawks	4-11	1.1618 (LW × 1.051)	won by 10 vs Jets
28 (↑2)	Oakland Raiders	4-11	1.1537 (LW × 1.065)	won by 11 vs Texans
29 (↓5)	Cleveland Browns	4-11	1.1330 (LW × 0.962)	lost by 14 vs Bengals
30 (↓1)	Kansas City Chiefs	2-13	1.1038 (LW × 1.009)	lost by 7 vs Dolphins
31 (-)	Detroit Lions	0-15	1.0211 (LW × 0.968)	lost by 35 vs Saints
32 (-)	St. Louis Rams	2-13	1.0062 (LW × 1.015)	lost by 1 vs 49ers

Comments:

• The Ravens get their chance at the #1 spot. And they still haven't clinched a playoff spot going into week 17!

• The Giants move up a little, but not enough to stay ahead of the Titans on their much more impressive win.

• APR has ranked the Chargers ahead of the Broncos nearly every week. And now the division comes down to the final game of the season. The Chargers have another chance to make up for their week 2 failures. If they can't get it done now, they don't have anyone to blame but themselves.

• Now the 49ers are the only NFC West team outside the bottom 10. It really doesn't look good for the Cardinals getting to the Divsional round of the playoffs.

• The Lions have overtaken the Rams for most net points allowed. The Lions would need to lose to the Packers by 89 points to tie the '76 Buccaneers for worst average, though.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Nothing really egregious this week. Dolphins (+7) are the closest to my usual +8 cut-off.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

And again, no major disagreements. Eagles (-6) and Chargers (-6) have the only differential beyond -5.

NFL Week 16 Pick Results

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line picks counted correct when the favored team wins; they do not have to beat the spread to count as a win.

Pick results for week 16.

Unanimous picks (6-6)

Correctly picked:

Colts @ Jaguars

Saints @ Lions

49ers @ Rams

Dolphins @ Chiefs

Cardinals @ Patriots

Panthers @ Giants

Not so much:

Chargers @ Buccaneers

The Buccaneers were in this one through 3 quarters, but gave up 3 touchdowns in the 4th, including a pick-6.

Bengals @ Browns

The Browns turned it over 4 times. Even the Bengals can get a win if you give them 4 extra chances at the ball.

Jets @ Seahawks

The Jets didn't look anything like a playoff team. After their opening drive, they only had one longer than 32 yards.

Texans @ Raiders

It would be easier to make the case that the Texans are under-rated if they didn't do this.

Eagles @ Redskins

The Eagles' offense goes back into hibernation. Only 2 drives more than 17 yards. One ended in a field goal, one ended just shy of a game-tying touchdown.

Falcons @ Vikings

The Vikings turn out to be overated at the #5 spot. Seven fumbles; four lost. The only surprise here is that the Falcons let them back into the game as much as they did.

Split Picks (APR 2-2) (SRS 3-1) (Line 1-3)

Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)

Have the Ravens have been playing a little under the radar this year? All their losses been to high-ranked teams, and only 2 by more than 4 points. Not bad for a rookie QB and a 1st year head coach.

Bills (SRS) @ Broncos (APR, Line)

Steelers (APR, Line) @ Titans (SRS)

SRS makes up some ground! SRS is also 5-0 so far on Bowl picks...

Packers (SRS) @ Bears (APR, Line)

Packers have had a 4th-quarter lead in 6 of their 10 losses, and were tied in two others. Somebody on this team needs to figure out how to seal the deal.

Standings:

	This week	Overall
APR:	8-8	148-75-1
SRS:	9-7	140-83-1
Line:	7-9	147-75-2
Unanimous:	6-6	114-47-1

New power rankings, and next weeks picks to come.

NFL Week 16 Picks

2008 Navigation Links

Picks for week 16, based on the week 15 rankings.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line values are taken from yahoo.com, and are for comparison purposes only.

Picks for week 16.

Game	APR	SRS	Line
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions	Saints ρ=1.2598	Saints δ=14.79	Saints -6½
Houston Texans @ Oakland Raiders	Texans ρ=1.2320	Texans δ=10.90	Texans -7
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins	Eagles ρ=1.2182	Eagles δ=9.26	Eagles -5
San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams	49ers ρ=1.2074	49ers δ=11.53	49ers -5
New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks	Jets ρ=1.1570	Jets δ=9.48	Jets -5
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars	Colts ρ=1.1482	Colts δ=6.42	Colts -6
Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs	Dolphins ρ=1.1441	Dolphins δ=7.53	Dolphins -4
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys	Ravens ρ=1.0897	Ravens δ=5.96	Cowboys -4½
Arizona Cardinals @ New England Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.0833	Patriots δ=0.36	Patriots -8
San Diego Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Buccaneers ρ=1.0736	Buccaneers δ=3.41	Buccaneers -3
Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos	Broncos ρ=1.0688	Bills δ=0.68	Broncos -7
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans	Steelers ρ=1.0388	Titans δ=0.67	Steelers -1
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns	Browns ρ=1.0355	Browns δ=6.16	Browns -3
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings	Vikings ρ=1.0302	Vikings δ=0.46	Vikings -3
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants	Giants ρ=1.0276	Giants δ=2.16	Giants -3
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears	Bears ρ=1.0183	Packers δ=1.27	Bears -4

Comments:

• Disagreements for Ravens @ Cowboys, Bills @ Broncos, Steelers @ Titans, and Packers @ Bears. SRS is feeling its oats this week.

• The Jets are 0-3 on the west coast this year, including games at the 49ers and Raiders.

• The Cardinals losses this year have either been by 8 points or less (Redskins, Panthers, Giants) or 21 points or more (Jets, Eagles, Vikings).

NFL Week 15 Power Rankings

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (↑3)	Pittsburgh Steelers	11-3	1.5122 (LW × 1.028)	won by 4 at Ravens
2 (-)	Baltimore Ravens	9-5	1.4739 (LW × 0.977)	lost by 4 vs Steelers
3 (↓2)	New York Giants	11-3	1.4690 (LW × 0.961)	lost by 12 at Cowboys
4 (↓1)	Tennessee Titans	12-2	1.4557 (LW × 0.989)	lost by 1 at Texans
5 (↑4)	Minnesota Vikings	9-5	1.4405 (LW × 1.047)	won by 21 at Cardinals
6 (-)	Carolina Panthers	11-3	1.4296 (LW × 1.013)	won by 20 vs Broncos
7 (↓2)	Philadelphia Eagles	8-5-1	1.4253 (LW × 0.998)	won by 20 vs Browns
8 (↓1)	Atlanta Falcons	9-5	1.3982 (LW × 0.999)	won by 3 vs Buccaneers
9 (↓1)	Indianapolis Colts	10-4	1.3902 (LW × 0.995)	won by 10 vs Lions
10 (-)	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9-5	1.3762 (LW × 1.004)	lost by 3 at Falcons
11 (↑1)	Dallas Cowboys	9-5	1.3526 (LW × 1.037)	won by 12 vs Giants
12 (↑1)	Houston Texans	7-7	1.3342 (LW × 1.029)	won by 1 vs Titans
13 (↓2)	New Orleans Saints	7-7	1.3292 (LW × 0.986)	lost by 3 at Bears
14 (↑1)	New England Patriots	9-5	1.3225 (LW × 1.022)	won by 23 at Raiders
15 (↑3)	Chicago Bears	8-6	1.3129 (LW × 1.024)	won by 3 vs Saints
16 (↑1)	Green Bay Packers	5-9	1.2894 (LW × 0.997)	lost by 4 at Jaguars
17 (↓1)	San Diego Chargers	6-8	1.2818 (LW × 0.991)	won by 1 at Chiefs
18 (↓4)	New York Jets	9-5	1.2788 (LW × 0.987)	won by 4 vs Bills
19 (↑2)	Miami Dolphins	9-5	1.2519 (LW × 0.997)	won by 5 vs 49ers
20 (-)	Denver Broncos	8-6	1.2287 (LW × 0.970)	lost by 20 at Panthers
21 (↓2)	Arizona Cardinals	8-6	1.2209 (LW × 0.963)	lost by 21 vs Vikings
22 (↑3)	Jacksonville Jaguars	5-9	1.2107 (LW × 1.032)	won by 4 vs Packers
23 (-)	San Francisco 49ers	5-9	1.1974 (LW × 0.996)	lost by 5 at Dolphins
24 (-)	Cleveland Browns	4-10	1.1775 (LW × 0.981)	lost by 20 at Eagles
25 (↓3)	Washington Redskins	7-7	1.1700 (LW × 0.972)	lost by 7 at Bengals
26 (-)	Buffalo Bills	6-8	1.1496 (LW × 1.002)	lost by 4 at Jets
27 (↑2)	Cincinnati Bengals	2-11-1	1.1372 (LW × 1.033)	won by 7 vs Redskins
28 (↑2)	Seattle Seahawks	3-11	1.1053 (LW × 1.004)	won by 3 at Rams
29 (↓1)	Kansas City Chiefs	2-12	1.0943 (LW × 0.984)	lost by 1 vs Chargers
30 (↓3)	Oakland Raiders	3-11	1.0829 (LW × 0.960)	lost by 23 vs Patriots
31 (-)	Detroit Lions	0-14	1.0551 (LW × 1.032)	lost by 10 at Colts
32 (-)	St. Louis Rams	2-12	0.9917 (LW × 0.988)	lost by 3 vs Seahawks

Comments:

• Playoff standings detailed here.

• The Steelers get their turn at the top spot. The Ravens stay at #2, thanks to losses by the Giants and Titans.

• The Vikings are a top 5 team. This week, anyway. They've won 4 in a row, but with the Falcons and Giants to close out the season, it will be tough to extend that to 6.

• The Colts have now won 7 in a row. They clinch a wildcard spot with one more win.

• The Saints are the only NFC South team out of the top 10.

• The Cardinals are the only NFC West team out of the bottom 10.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Dolphins (+8)

The Dolphins have put together a string of close wins against some of the leagues weaker teams. 2 points over the Seahawks, 2 points over the Raiders, 13 points over the Bills, and now 5 points over the 49ers. I'm sure the Dolphins are more than happy with these wins, but they don't bode well for the Dolphins if they make it to the playoffs.

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Packers (-9)

I have no good explanation why APR has the Packers at #16. There's no way they've been playing like a middle-of-the-pack team. No way they should be above the Jets, Dolphins, or even the Broncos. I suspect APR needs to discount early-season games more than it currently does, especially when it gets to the final stretch.

Update: DVOA has the Packers ranked #11.

NFL Week 15 Pick Results

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line picks counted correct when the favored team wins; they do not have to beat the spread to count as a win.

Pick results for week 14.

Unanimous picks (8-4)

Correctly picked:

Lions @ Colts

Chargers @ Chiefs

Patriots @ Raiders

Bills @ Jets

Broncos @ Panthers

Seahawks @ Rams

49ers @ Dolphins

Browns @ Eagles

Not so much:

Titans @ Texans

Are the Texans better than their 7-7 record? Four of their losses are by 7 points or less, including an overtime loss to the Jaguars, and that week 3 break-down where they fumbled away a big lead against the Colts.

Packers @ Jaguars

The Packers offense takes their turn as scapegoat. Five second-half drives, only one went for more than 32 yards. Ryan Grant's lack of production was a big issue. He finished with just 56 yards on 21 carries. Yeah, he's got 1,000 yards for the season, but he's well off last years' 5.1 ypc average.

Redskins @ Bengals

The Bengals seem to do oddly well against the NFC East this year: OT vs the Giants, close to the Cowboys until late, tied the Eagles, and now they beat the Redskins.

Steelers @ Ravens

Just like their first meeting, the Ravens had their chances to win this. The Ravens defense held the Steelers to just 3 points until the 4th quarter. But like the Cowboys, the Ravens found out that the Steelers can score late.

Split Picks (APR 2-2) (SRS 1-3) (Line 3-1)

Giants (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)

A lot of the air seems to gone out of the Giants once they clinched the NFC East. And they still need one more win (or a Vikings loss) to clinch a bye...

Vikings (APR, SRS) @ Cardinals (Line)

The Cardinals are now 3-6 against non-division opponents. They really can't seem to get a win, even against a middle-of-the-pack team.

Saints (APR, SRS) @ Bears (Line)

The Saints struggled on offense all night long. Drew Brees was under a 50% completion rate for most of the game. The Saints offense only had 2 drives go longer than 45 yards (one of which ended in an interception). On the other side, the Bears got a couple big kick returns (including an early punt return for a touchdown), and a couple of big pass interference calls (Devin Hester had more yards on DPI calls than he did receiving). The Bears had their own problems (including just 55 yards rushing), but were able to pull out the win.

Buccaneers (SRS) @ Falcons (APR, Line)

No NFC South team has won a divisional game on the road.

Standings:

	This week	Overall
APR:	10-6	140-67-1
SRS:	9-7	131-76-1
Line:	11-5	140-66-2
Unanimous:	8-4	108-41-1

New power rankings, and next weeks picks to come.

NFL Week 15 Picks

2008 Navigation Links

Picks for week 15, based on the week 14 rankings.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line values are taken from yahoo.com (except Seahawks @ Rams and Vikings @ Cardinals, taken from footballocks.com), and are for comparison purposes only.

Picks for week 15.

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts	Colts ρ=1.3677	Colts δ=17.43	Colts -17
Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles	Eagles ρ=1.1906	Eagles δ=8.00	Eagles -14
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys	Giants ρ=1.1724	Giants δ=8.15	Cowboys -3
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs	Chargers ρ=1.1627	Chargers δ=12.46	Chargers -5
New England Patriots @ Oakland Raiders	Patriots ρ=1.1475	Patriots δ=8.99	Patriots -7
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans	Titans ρ=1.1356	Titans δ=11.04	Titans -3
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets	Jets ρ=1.1294	Jets δ=4.88	Jets -7
Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers	Panthers ρ=1.1148	Panthers δ=9.36	Panthers -7½
Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars	Packers ρ=1.1022	Packers δ=7.26	Packers -1½
Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams	Seahawks ρ=1.0964	Seahawks δ=9.07	Seahawks -3
Washington Redskins @ Cincinnati Bengals	Redskins ρ=1.0935	Redskins δ=8.61	Redskins -7
Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals	Vikings ρ=1.0857	Vikings δ=2.17	Cardinals -3
New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears	Saints ρ=1.0516	Saints δ=1.31	Bears -3
San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins	Dolphins ρ=1.0441	Dolphins δ=3.15	Dolphins -6½
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens	Ravens ρ=1.0263	Ravens δ=0.44	Ravens -2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons	Falcons ρ=1.0211	Buccaneers δ=0.78	Falcons -3

Comments:

• Disagreements for Giants @ Cowboys, Vikings @ Cardinals, Saints @ Bears, and Buccaneers @ Falcons.

• The Line likes the Cowboys over the Giants? Did the Giants lose somebody since the whole Plaxico deal? Update: yes. Brandon Jacobs is out.

• Once again, APR, SRS, and the Line all pick the Packers to win. I wish I had more confidence they were right this time.

• Another SRS vs APR and Line pick. SRS is now 2-8 in such picks this season, with both correct picks coming early.

NFL Week 14 Power Rankings

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (-)	New York Giants	11-2	1.5288 (LW × 0.971)	lost by 6 vs Eagles
2 (-)	Baltimore Ravens	9-4	1.5093 (LW × 1.004)	won by 14 vs Redskins
3 (↑1)	Tennessee Titans	12-1	1.4722 (LW × 1.005)	won by 19 vs Browns
4 (↓1)	Pittsburgh Steelers	10-3	1.4707 (LW × 1.002)	won by 7 vs Cowboys
5 (↑4)	Philadelphia Eagles	7-5-1	1.4284 (LW × 1.038)	won by 6 at Giants
6 (↑4)	Carolina Panthers	10-3	1.4117 (LW × 1.032)	won by 15 vs Buccaneers
7 (↓1)	Atlanta Falcons	8-5	1.3995 (LW × 0.993)	lost by 4 at Saints
8 (-)	Indianapolis Colts	9-4	1.3977 (LW × 1.005)	won by 32 vs Bengals
9 (↓2)	Minnesota Vikings	8-5	1.3763 (LW × 0.979)	won by 4 at Lions
10 (↓5)	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9-4	1.3706 (LW × 0.965)	lost by 15 at Panthers
11 (↑1)	New Orleans Saints	7-6	1.3483 (LW × 1.004)	won by 4 vs Falcons
12 (↑2)	Dallas Cowboys	8-5	1.3040 (LW × 0.988)	lost by 7 at Steelers
13 (↑6)	Houston Texans	6-7	1.2964 (LW × 1.021)	won by 3 at Packers
14 (↓3)	New York Jets	8-5	1.2953 (LW × 0.963)	lost by 10 at 49ers
15 (-)	New England Patriots	8-5	1.2938 (LW × 0.997)	won by 3 at Seahawks
16 (↑1)	San Diego Chargers	5-8	1.2930 (LW × 1.016)	won by 27 vs Raiders
17 (↓4)	Green Bay Packers	5-8	1.2928 (LW × 0.978)	lost by 3 vs Texans
18 (-)	Chicago Bears	7-6	1.2821 (LW × 1.010)	won by 13 vs Jaguars
19 (↑1)	Arizona Cardinals	8-5	1.2677 (LW × 1.008)	won by 24 vs Rams
20 (↓4)	Denver Broncos	8-5	1.2663 (LW × 0.989)	won by 7 vs Chiefs
21 (-)	Miami Dolphins	8-5	1.2552 (LW × 1.022)	won by 13 at Bills
22 (↑1)	Washington Redskins	7-6	1.2040 (LW × 0.987)	lost by 14 at Ravens
23 (↑3)	San Francisco 49ers	5-8	1.2022 (LW × 1.036)	won by 10 vs Jets
24 (↓2)	Cleveland Browns	4-9	1.1998 (LW × 0.978)	lost by 19 at Titans
25 (↓1)	Jacksonville Jaguars	4-9	1.1729 (LW × 0.989)	lost by 13 at Bears
26 (↓1)	Buffalo Bills	6-7	1.1469 (LW × 0.971)	lost by 13 vs Dolphins
27 (-)	Oakland Raiders	3-10	1.1275 (LW × 0.974)	lost by 27 at Chargers
28 (-)	Kansas City Chiefs	2-11	1.1121 (LW × 0.983)	lost by 7 at Broncos
29 (-)	Cincinnati Bengals	1-11-1	1.1010 (LW × 0.989)	lost by 32 at Colts
30 (-)	Seattle Seahawks	2-11	1.1008 (LW × 1.001)	lost by 3 vs Patriots
31 (↑1)	Detroit Lions	0-13	1.0219 (LW × 1.022)	lost by 4 vs Vikings
32 (↓1)	St. Louis Rams	2-11	1.0040 (LW × 0.991)	lost by 24 at Cardinals

Comments:

• Playoff standings detailed here.

• The Giants lose nearly 3% of their power on the loss to the Eagles, but they were so far ahead of the Ravens, it doesn't cost them the top spot.

• The Titans and Steelers swap positions, but they are still so close as to be virtually tied.

• It was just two weeks ago the Eagles were left for dead after being crushed by the Ravens. They're still on the outside looking in for the playoffs, but they could have a chance if they win out.

• The Cowboys move down in power, but move up in the rankings because the Jets and Packers suffered bigger losses, and no one else was there to take their place.

• It was just 3 weeks ago the Packers were #5 in the power rankings. They really have been bad since then.

• The Lions get a (possibly temporary) reprieve from the bottom spot. Maybe the best hope the Lions have for finding a win is that the Rams have won two, in spite of being awful. On the other hand, the Lions don't have Mark Bulger or Steve Jackson.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Cardinals (+10)

ESPN hasn't seemed to notice that Cardinals have been taking advantage of a very soft schedule. With the Vikings and Patriots left on their schedule, they might only win one more game in the regular season.

Dolphins (+9)

APR may be under-rating the Dolphins, but how does ESPN move them up 4 spots on beating the slumping Bills?

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Eagles (-9)

...While ESPN only gives the Eagles a 4-spot bump for beating the first-place Giants? If the Eagles continue to get production from their running game, they're going to keep winning.

Historically Bad Teams Watch

I have to admit that I've lost interest in this since it's become clear that (barring an epic late-season collapse) the Rams are not going to overtake the '76 Buccaneers.

I'm going to put this back on hiatus, with a final recap on the Week 17 power rankings.

NFL Week 14 Pick Results

2008 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line picks counted correct when the favored team wins; they do not have to beat the spread to count as a win.

Pick results for week 14.

Unanimous picks (10-3)

Correctly picked:

Raiders @ Chargers

Vikings @ Lions

Bengals @ Colts

Browns @ Titans

Jaguars @ Bears

Rams @ Cardinals

Patriots @ Seahawks

Cowboys @ Steelers

Chiefs @ Broncos

Redskins @ Ravens

Not so much:

Eagles @ Giants

It was the Giants that were supposed to play solid defense, and the Eagles that struggle on offense, right? Somebody forgot to tell the Eagles.

Texans @ Packers

For the second game in a row, the Packers lose a game they could've won with one more defensive stop. The Packers ability to play defense has fallen off a cliff since they played the Bears. In their first 10 games, Packers' opponents averaged 20.9 points per game. In their last 3 games, they are averaging 36.7.

Jets @ 49ers

Looks like its not just the west coast teams that have trouble when they travel east. The Jets lost at the Chargers, at the Raiders, and now at the 49ers. Keep an eye on week 17: Jets at Seahawks.

Split Picks (APR 1-2) (SRS 1-2) (Line 2-1)

Falcons (APR, SRS) @ Saints (Line)

The Saints seem to be putting on a late season surge. Last week, they came within 3 points of beating the (then) division-leading Buccaneers, and this week they beat the Falcons.

Dolphins (APR, SRS) @ Bills (Line)

The Bills problems just aren't going away. It's not necessarily a bad thing when your quarterback is also your leading rusher, but it is when he gets 53 yards.

Buccaneers (APR, SRS) @ Panthers (Line)

Nothing like a monster running game to cover up passing problems, including a 90 yard touchdown drive that was all on the ground.

Standings:

	This week	Overall
APR:	11-5	130-61-1
SRS:	11-5	122-69-1
Line:	12-4	129-61-2
Unanimous:	10-3	100-37

New power rankings, and next weeks picks to come.