2008
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Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.
Line picks are counted correct when the favored team wins; they do not
have to beat the spread to count as a win.
Not a good week for the favored teams...
Unanimous picks (5-4)
Correctly picked:
Lions @ Vikings
Bengals @ Jets
Raiders @ Saints
Eagles @ 49ers
Patriots @ Chargers
Not so much:
Rams @ Redskins
Biggest upset of the season? Even if the Redskins have been playing a little over their heads lately, the Rams have been awful. But the Rams did show a little life two weeks ago against the Bills... Did Scott Linehan get things turned around just a little too late to save his job?Bears @ Falcons
Matt Ryan is starting to look like the genius pick of the 2008 draft. And the Bears find out that a 1-point lead with 17 seconds to play is not as safe as they would like.Jaguars @ Broncos
The Broncos lost 2 fumbles, Jay Cutler threw an interception, and the Colts aren't the only AFC South team shaking off a little rust this week.- Giants @ Browns
Two words: bad Eli. OK, that's not entirely fair. There's some blame that belongs to the defense, too. On the Brown's last offensive score, they had 3 false starts, delay of game, and a holding penalty. And still drove 87 yards (not counting the 30 penalty yards) for a touchdown.
Split Picks (APR 2-3) (SRS 1-4) (Line 3-2)
Dolphins (APR, SRS) @ Texans (Line)
The Dolphins' defense has looked improved this season, and if it could've held the Texans just one more time, it would've been enough. On the other hand, the Texans could easily be 3-2 at this point, so maybe they are very underated at 1-4.Packers (APR, SRS) @ Seahawks (Line)
The Seahawks made this more interesting than they had any right to, with the Packers only getting a two-score lead well into the fourth quarter. If the Seahawks had a QB that could get the ball to his receivers, they would be winning more games.Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Colts (Line)
Before this week, the Colts looking really bad, needing come-backs to win against the Vikings and Texans. But Peyton Manning looks like he's finally shaking off the rust of missing the preseason, and Joe Flacco looks like a rookie QB.Panthers (APR, SRS) @ Buccaneers (Line)
The Panthers' special teams has a punt blocked, Jake Delhomme throws three interceptions, and the Panthers' offense just can't do anything on a day where the offense mounts just two drives longer than 17 yards before garbage time.Cowboys (SRS, Line) @ Cardinals (APR)
The Cardinals seemed to be the best team in this game, with the Cowboys hanging around thanks to a number of breaks going their way (including an offsides penalty on an injured player, then a do-over on a blocked punt nullified by a time out). The Cowboys' breaks ran out before the game clock, to their detriment.
I've noticed on these split picks, it's often APR and SRS taking the road team, and the Line taking the home team. When I originally wrote APR, it didn't look like it was worth giving any weight to home field advantage. Maybe that deserves renewed consideration.
Standings
This week Overall APR: 7-7 45-27 SRS: 6-8 41-31 Line: 8-6 47-24-1 Unanimous: 5-4 33-13
New power rankings, and next weeks' picks to come.
