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Read this for a description of APR
Power Rankings For Week 6
Rank | Team | W-L | Power Index | This week |
1 (-) | Tennessee Titans | 5-0 | 1.5291 (LW * 1.031) | Bye |
2 (↑6) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4-2 | 1.4931 (LW * 1.072) | won by 24 vs Panthers |
3 (↑13) | Pittsburgh Steelers | 4-1 | 1.4160 (LW * 1.084) | Bye |
4 (↑5) | Dallas Cowboys | 4-2 | 1.3996 (LW * 1.012) | lost by 6 at Cardinals |
5 (↑6) | Chicago Bears | 3-3 | 1.3872 (LW * 1.030) | lost by 2 at Falcons |
6 (↓1) | Arizona Cardinals | 4-2 | 1.3853 (LW * 0.982) | won by 6 vs Cowboys |
7 (↓1) | San Diego Chargers | 3-3 | 1.3769 (LW * 0.979) | won by 20 vs Patriots |
8 (↓4) | Carolina Panthers | 4-2 | 1.3664 (LW * 0.952) | lost by 24 at Buccaneers |
9 (↑8) | Philadelphia Eagles | 3-3 | 1.3661 (LW * 1.048) | won by 14 at 49ers |
10 (↓8) | Washington Redskins | 4-2 | 1.3521 (LW * 0.914) | lost by 2 vs Rams |
11 (↑10) | Indianapolis Colts | 3-2 | 1.3505 (LW * 1.149) | won by 28 vs Ravens |
12 (↑12) | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3-3 | 1.3476 (LW * 1.161) | won by 7 at Broncos |
13 (↓10) | Miami Dolphins | 2-3 | 1.3387 (LW * 0.912) | lost by 1 at Texans |
14 (↓7) | New York Jets | 3-2 | 1.3224 (LW * 0.945) | won by 12 vs Bengals |
15 (-) | New Orleans Saints | 3-3 | 1.3134 (LW * 0.996) | won by 31 vs Raiders |
16 (↑3) | Buffalo Bills | 4-1 | 1.2915 (LW * 1.062) | Bye |
17 (↓3) | Minnesota Vikings | 3-3 | 1.2794 (LW * 0.965) | won by 2 vs Lions |
18 (↓8) | Denver Broncos | 4-2 | 1.2788 (LW * 0.946) | lost by 7 vs Jaguars |
19 (↑1) | Atlanta Falcons | 4-2 | 1.2786 (LW * 1.064) | won by 2 vs Bears |
20 (↓2) | Baltimore Ravens | 2-3 | 1.2700 (LW * 0.985) | lost by 28 at Colts |
21 (↓8) | New York Giants | 4-1 | 1.2588 (LW * 0.941) | lost by 21 at Browns |
22 (↑4) | Cleveland Browns | 2-3 | 1.2475 (LW * 1.119) | won by 21 vs Giants |
23 (-) | Green Bay Packers | 3-3 | 1.2291 (LW * 1.059) | won by 10 at Seahawks |
24 (↓12) | New England Patriots | 3-2 | 1.2153 (LW * 0.903) | lost by 20 at Chargers |
25 (↑4) | Houston Texans | 1-4 | 1.2073 (LW * 1.162) | won by 1 vs Dolphins |
26 (↓4) | Oakland Raiders | 1-4 | 1.1057 (LW * 0.948) | lost by 31 at Saints |
27 (-) | Cincinnati Bengals | 0-6 | 1.0858 (LW * 1.017) | lost by 12 at Jets |
28 (↓3) | Kansas City Chiefs | 1-4 | 1.0840 (LW * 0.961) | Bye |
29 (↓1) | San Francisco 49ers | 2-4 | 1.0281 (LW * 0.971) | lost by 14 vs Eagles |
30 (↑2) | St. Louis Rams | 1-4 | 1.0223 (LW * 1.231) | won by 2 at Redskins |
31 (↓1) | Seattle Seahawks | 1-4 | 0.9934 (LW * 1.026) | lost by 10 vs Packers |
32 (↓1) | Detroit Lions | 0-5 | 0.9660 (LW * 1.129) | lost by 2 at Vikings |
Comments
This week is just completely nuts. 3 of last week's top 5 teams lost. The Cowboys, Broncos, Bears, Patriots and Giants (formerly ranked 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, and 13) all lost. The Titans are now the only remaining undefeated team; the Bengals and Lions are the only remaining 0-fers.
The Browns' big win over the Giants is causing all kinds of churn. The Steelers were at #8 pending MNF (thanks to wins by the Jaguars, Eagles, and Texans). The Browns' win was enough to push them up to #3.
A good example of previous games playing a big factor in a team's power index, which seems to be the theme this week.
The Cowboys also move up 3 spots thanks to the Browns' win (plus 2 spots from wins by the Eagles and Packers).
The Bears move up on their loss thanks to wins by the Eagles, Buccaneers, and Colts (and the Lions moving up because of a close loss).
The Cardinals move down, thanks to losses by the 49ers, Dolphins, and Redskins.
The Chargers lose ground because of losses by the Dolphins, Raiders, Broncos, and Panthers.
The Rams' power index actually moved up quite a bit (23%). But they were in such a deep hole last week, their win was only enough to move them up 2 spots.
In spite of the big upsets suffered by the Redskins and Giants, it is the Patriots that suffer the most in terms of rank (moving down 12 spots) and power index (losing nearly 10%).
Teams ESPN likes more than APR:
- Giants (+19)
- OK, ESPN's power rankings are mostly retrodictive (i.e. describe the teams accomplishments, rather than predict what they'll do in the future). But to only drop them one spot on a crushing 21-point loss to a (formerly) 1-3 team? Wow.
- Bills (+12)
- Three of the Bill's four wins are against the Raiders (#26), Seahawks (#31) and Rams (#30). Their win against the Jaguars (#12) looks better this week, but how is that good enough for a top 5 ranking?
- Patriots (+7)
- Another team with a big loss, and ESPN drops them 8 spots, but no match for the 12 spots they drop in the APR rankings.
Teams APR likes more than ESPN:
- Bears (-15)
- The Bears are a team that seems to run hot and cold. APR sees mostly hot; ESPN sees mostly cold.
- Dolphins (-10)
- Maybe a team that APR has ranked too high. But surely they deserve better than the #24 spot.
Historically Bad Teams Watch
And just like that, the '76 Bucs have "first" place all to themselves. We see teams that play as bad or worse than them for stretches. But to play that bad for a whole season—that takes a real dedication to sucking that is very hard to maintain.
Rank | Team | Net Pts/Game | W-L | Next Week |
1 | 1976 Buccaneers | -20.50 | 0-14 | n/a |
2 | 2008 Rams | -20.40 | 1-4 | vs Cowboys |
3 | 1972 Patriots | -18.4 | 3-11 | n/a |
4 | 1973 Oilers | -17.71 | 1-13 | n/a |
5 | 1967 Falcons | -17.64 | 1-12 | n/a |
6 | 1981 Colts | -17.12 | 2-14 | n/a |
7 | 1966 Giants | -17.00 | 1-12 | n/a |
8 | 1966 Falcons | -16.64 | 3-11 | n/a |
9 | 2008 Lions | -16.60 | 0-5 | @ Texans |
10 | 1990 Patriots | -16.56 | 1-15 | n/a |
... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
39 | 2008 Chiefs | -13.20 | 1-4 | vs Titans |