Tuesday, October 14, 2008

NFL Week 6 Power Rankings

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Read this for a description of APR

Power Rankings For Week 6

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)Tennessee
Titans
5-01.5291
(LW * 1.031)
Bye
2 (↑6)Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
4-21.4931
(LW * 1.072)
won by 24
vs Panthers
3 (↑13)Pittsburgh
Steelers
4-11.4160
(LW * 1.084)
Bye
4 (↑5)Dallas
Cowboys
4-21.3996
(LW * 1.012)
lost by 6
at Cardinals
5 (↑6)Chicago
Bears
3-31.3872
(LW * 1.030)
lost by 2
at Falcons
6 (↓1)Arizona
Cardinals
4-21.3853
(LW * 0.982)
won by 6
vs Cowboys
7 (↓1)San Diego
Chargers
3-31.3769
(LW * 0.979)
won by 20
vs Patriots
8 (↓4)Carolina
Panthers
4-21.3664
(LW * 0.952)
lost by 24
at Buccaneers
9 (↑8)Philadelphia
Eagles
3-31.3661
(LW * 1.048)
won by 14
at 49ers
10 (↓8)Washington
Redskins
4-21.3521
(LW * 0.914)
lost by 2
vs Rams
11 (↑10)Indianapolis
Colts
3-21.3505
(LW * 1.149)
won by 28
vs Ravens
12 (↑12)Jacksonville
Jaguars
3-31.3476
(LW * 1.161)
won by 7
at Broncos
13 (↓10)Miami
Dolphins
2-31.3387
(LW * 0.912)
lost by 1
at Texans
14 (↓7)New York
Jets
3-21.3224
(LW * 0.945)
won by 12
vs Bengals
15 (-)New Orleans
Saints
3-31.3134
(LW * 0.996)
won by 31
vs Raiders
16 (↑3)Buffalo
Bills
4-11.2915
(LW * 1.062)
Bye
17 (↓3)Minnesota
Vikings
3-31.2794
(LW * 0.965)
won by 2
vs Lions
18 (↓8)Denver
Broncos
4-21.2788
(LW * 0.946)
lost by 7
vs Jaguars
19 (↑1)Atlanta
Falcons
4-21.2786
(LW * 1.064)
won by 2
vs Bears
20 (↓2)Baltimore
Ravens
2-31.2700
(LW * 0.985)
lost by 28
at Colts
21 (↓8)New York
Giants
4-11.2588
(LW * 0.941)
lost by 21
at Browns
22 (↑4)Cleveland
Browns
2-31.2475
(LW * 1.119)
won by 21
vs Giants
23 (-)Green Bay
Packers
3-31.2291
(LW * 1.059)
won by 10
at Seahawks
24 (↓12)New England
Patriots
3-21.2153
(LW * 0.903)
lost by 20
at Chargers
25 (↑4)Houston
Texans
1-41.2073
(LW * 1.162)
won by 1
vs Dolphins
26 (↓4)Oakland
Raiders
1-41.1057
(LW * 0.948)
lost by 31
at Saints
27 (-)Cincinnati
Bengals
0-61.0858
(LW * 1.017)
lost by 12
at Jets
28 (↓3)Kansas City
Chiefs
1-41.0840
(LW * 0.961)
Bye
29 (↓1)San Francisco
49ers
2-41.0281
(LW * 0.971)
lost by 14
vs Eagles
30 (↑2)St. Louis
Rams
1-41.0223
(LW * 1.231)
won by 2
at Redskins
31 (↓1)Seattle
Seahawks
1-40.9934
(LW * 1.026)
lost by 10
vs Packers
32 (↓1)Detroit
Lions
0-50.9660
(LW * 1.129)
lost by 2
at Vikings

Comments

  • This week is just completely nuts. 3 of last week's top 5 teams lost. The Cowboys, Broncos, Bears, Patriots and Giants (formerly ranked 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, and 13) all lost. The Titans are now the only remaining undefeated team; the Bengals and Lions are the only remaining 0-fers.

  • The Browns' big win over the Giants is causing all kinds of churn. The Steelers were at #8 pending MNF (thanks to wins by the Jaguars, Eagles, and Texans). The Browns' win was enough to push them up to #3.

    A good example of previous games playing a big factor in a team's power index, which seems to be the theme this week.

  • The Cowboys also move up 3 spots thanks to the Browns' win (plus 2 spots from wins by the Eagles and Packers).

  • The Bears move up on their loss thanks to wins by the Eagles, Buccaneers, and Colts (and the Lions moving up because of a close loss).

  • The Cardinals move down, thanks to losses by the 49ers, Dolphins, and Redskins.

  • The Chargers lose ground because of losses by the Dolphins, Raiders, Broncos, and Panthers.

  • The Rams' power index actually moved up quite a bit (23%). But they were in such a deep hole last week, their win was only enough to move them up 2 spots.

  • In spite of the big upsets suffered by the Redskins and Giants, it is the Patriots that suffer the most in terms of rank (moving down 12 spots) and power index (losing nearly 10%).


Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Giants (+19)
OK, ESPN's power rankings are mostly retrodictive (i.e. describe the teams accomplishments, rather than predict what they'll do in the future). But to only drop them one spot on a crushing 21-point loss to a (formerly) 1-3 team? Wow.

Bills (+12)
Three of the Bill's four wins are against the Raiders (#26), Seahawks (#31) and Rams (#30). Their win against the Jaguars (#12) looks better this week, but how is that good enough for a top 5 ranking?

Patriots (+7)
Another team with a big loss, and ESPN drops them 8 spots, but no match for the 12 spots they drop in the APR rankings.


Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Bears (-15)
The Bears are a team that seems to run hot and cold. APR sees mostly hot; ESPN sees mostly cold.

Dolphins (-10)
Maybe a team that APR has ranked too high. But surely they deserve better than the #24 spot.


Historically Bad Teams Watch

And just like that, the '76 Bucs have "first" place all to themselves. We see teams that play as bad or worse than them for stretches. But to play that bad for a whole season—that takes a real dedication to sucking that is very hard to maintain.

RankTeamNet Pts/GameW-LNext Week
1 1976 Buccaneers-20.500-14n/a
2 2008 Rams-20.401-4vs Cowboys
3 1972 Patriots-18.43-11n/a
4 1973 Oilers-17.711-13n/a
5 1967 Falcons-17.641-12n/a
6 1981 Colts-17.122-14n/a
7 1966 Giants-17.001-12n/a
8 1966 Falcons-16.643-11n/a
9 2008 Lions-16.600-5@ Texans
10 1990 Patriots-16.561-15n/a
...............
39 2008 Chiefs-13.201-4vs Titans