Picks for week 7, based on the week 6 rankings.
Read
this for a description of APR.
Read this
for a description of SRS.
Line values are taken
from yahoo.com
(except when noted otherwise) and are for comparison purposes only.
| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
| Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Buccaneers ρ=1.5030 | Buccaneers δ=27.07 | Buccaneers -10½ |
| Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs | Titans ρ=1.4107 | Titans δ=26.13 | Titans -7½ |
| Dallas Cowboys @ St. Louis Rams | Cowboys ρ=1.3690 | Cowboys δ=29.30 | Cowboys -6½ |
| Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals | Steelers ρ=1.3041 | Steelers δ=11.06 | Steelers -9½ |
| Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans | Texans ρ=1.2498 | Texans δ=11.30 | Texans -9 |
| San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants | Giants ρ=1.2244 | Giants δ=11.24 | Giants -10 |
| New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders | Jets ρ=1.1959 | Jets δ=14.56 | Jets -3 |
| Indianapolis Colts @ Green Bay Packers | Colts ρ=1.0988 | Colts δ=4.33 | Colts -1½ |
| Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears | Bears ρ=1.0843 | Bears δ=7.88 | Bears -3 |
| Cleveland Browns @ Washington Redskins | Redskins ρ=1.0838 | Redskins δ=2.55 | Redskins -7 |
| San Diego Chargers @ Buffalo Bills | Chargers ρ=1.0661 | Chargers δ=8.83 | Chargers -1 |
| Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins | Dolphins ρ=1.0541 | Ravens δ=0.03 | Dolphins -3 |
| Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots | Broncos ρ=1.0522 | Broncos δ=8.33 | Patriots -3 |
| New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers | Panthers ρ=1.0403 | Saints δ=0.76 | Panthers -3 |
Comments:
It bears repeating: APR and SRS do not take into account injuries. Which is why they think the Cowboys should have an easy win, while the line only gives them 6½ points.
If 49ers @ Giants sounds familiar, it's because they played last year too (coincidentally also in week 7). Final score then: 49ers 15, Giants 33.
Saints @ Panthers is being played in England, which means it is only technically a home game for the Panthers. It also means besides the usual practices and game planning, both teams have long plane rides ahead of them, plus jet lag to deal with (New Orleans is in the Central time zone, so they get an extra hour of lag to deal with). How on earth did the NFL get these teams to agree to do this with a critical divisional game?As bob p points out in the comments, it's next week's Chargers @ Saints that will be played in London. <Emily-Litella>Never mind</Emily-Litella>
Only one of the sites yahoo is getting odds from wants to give a line on Chargers @ Bills. Not exactly a lot of confidence out there. But the Chargers have faced a tougher schedule, and done reasonably well. I think it will qualify as a genuine upset if the Bills get the win.
Only the bottom three games are not unanimous. APR only differs from the Line on Broncos @ Patriots. Note that for Ravens @ Dolphins, SRS has δ=0.03, which is virtually a push. The δ=0.76 for Saints @ Panthers isn't much stronger.
Colts are only getting 1½ points? It's only been one game, but last week's Ravens @ Colts sure makes it seem like the Colts have worked through their early-season issues. If they can play like that again, it will be tough for the Packers to fare much better.
