Saturday, October 18, 2008

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, Week 8

2008 Navigation Links.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.


I'll update with poll information (and probably add a few more teams) once it's posted. Update: done.

RankTeamW-LPower
Index
This week
1 (-)Texas
BCS=1
7-01.7940
(LW * 1.048)
won by 25
vs Missouri
2 (↑4)Florida
BCS=10
5-11.6658
(LW * 1.045)
Bye
3 (↓1)Penn-St
BCS=3
8-01.6396
(LW * 0.969)
won by 29
vs Michigan
4 (↑5)Oklahoma
BCS=4
6-11.6253
(LW * 1.042)
won by 14
vs Kansas
5 (↓1)USC
BCS=5
5-11.6013
(LW * 0.978)
won by 69
at Washington-St
6 (↑11)Ohio-St
BCS=9
7-11.5821
(LW * 1.084)
won by 38
at Michigan-St
7 (↓2)Alabama
BCS=2
7-01.5809
(LW * 0.977)
won by 4
vs Mississippi
8 (-)Oklahoma-St
BCS=6
7-01.5711
(LW * 0.998)
won by 28
vs Baylor
9 (↓2)Texas-Tech
BCS=8
7-01.5676
(LW * 0.990)
won by 18
at Texas-A&M
10 (↑1)Georgia
BCS=7
6-11.5622
(LW * 1.017)
won by 10
vs Vanderbilt
11 (↓8)Missouri
BCS=15
5-21.5583
(LW * 0.948)
lost by 25
at Texas
12 (↑15)Pittsburgh
BCS=17
5-11.4953
(LW * 1.050)
won by 21
at Navy
13 (↑8)TCU
BCS=14
7-11.4800
(LW * 1.030)
won by 25
vs BYU
14 (↑2)Boise-St
BCS=12
6-01.4706
(LW * 1.006)
won by 20
vs Hawaii
15 (↓3)North-Carolina5-21.4700
(LW * 0.965)
lost by 3
at Virginia
16 (↓3)Ball-St
BCS=20
7-01.4649
(LW * 0.969)
Bye
17 (↑15)Tulsa
BCS=19
7-01.4507
(LW * 1.034)
won by 42
vs UTEP
18 (↓4)Virginia-Tech5-21.4444
(LW * 0.957)
lost by 5
at Boston-Coll
19 (↑1)Minnesota
BCS=24
6-11.4431
(LW * 1.000)
Bye
20 (↑2)Utah
BCS=11
8-01.4353
(LW * 1.001)
won by 33
vs Colorado-St
21 (↓11)Michigan-St6-21.4353
(LW * 0.921)
lost by 38
vs Ohio-St
22 (↑6)Nebraska4-31.4327
(LW * 1.009)
won by 28
at Iowa-St
23 (↑1)South-Florida
BCS=16
6-11.4248
(LW * 0.996)
won by 32
vs Syracuse
24 (↑5)Iowa5-31.4226
(LW * 1.003)
won by 22
vs Wisconsin
25 (↓10)Georgia-Tech
BCS=18
6-11.4178
(LW * 0.956)
won by 4
at Clemson
26 (-)Vanderbilt5-21.4124
(LW * 0.991)
lost by 10
at Georgia
27 (↑11)Boston-Coll5-11.4072
(LW * 1.023)
won by 5
vs Virginia-Tech
28 (↑19)LSU
BCS=13
5-11.3991
(LW * 1.089)
won by 7
at South-Carolina
29 (↑11)Florida-St
BCS=25
5-11.3878
(LW * 1.014)
won by 9
at NC-State
30 (↓12)Kansas
BCS=23
5-21.3802
(LW * 0.950)
lost by 14
at Oklahoma

Other Notable Teams:
31 (↑8)Mississippi3-41.3767
(LW * 1.003)
lost by 4
at Alabama
32 (↑4)Oregon-St4-31.3767
(LW * 0.997)
won by 21
at Washington
33 (↑12)Arizona5-21.3766
(LW * 1.050)
won by 15
vs California
34 (↑8)Northwestern6-11.3662
(LW * 1.004)
won by 22
vs Purdue
35 (↓16)South-Carolina5-31.3630
(LW * 0.940)
lost by 7
vs LSU
36 (↓3)Notre-Dame4-21.3622
(LW * 0.975)
Bye
37 (↑28)Miami-FL4-31.3532
(LW * 1.103)
won by 18
at Duke
38 (↓3)W-Michigan6-21.3414
(LW * 0.969)
lost by 10
at Cent-Michigan
39 (↓8)BYU
BCS=21
6-11.3376
(LW * 0.950)
lost by 25
at TCU

Comments:

  • Texas' power index is head-and-shoulders above everyone else. That's the highest power index (beyond early-season anomolies) I've ever seen APR generate (last year the Patriots maxed out at 1.7340 after week 11).

  • Note that a lot of teams are clustered pretty close together if you go by power index. Boise State is just a whisker above North Carolina, and Utah and Michigan State are in a virtual tie.

    That's one of the reasons why there's so much shuffling around week to week: it doesn't take much change in the power index to move a team up or down.

  • Penn State gets no love for their 29-point beat-down of the very weak Michigan squad. It's not helping that Wisconsin's power index has fallen off a cliff the last two weeks, either.

  • On the other hand, Florida moves up in part because the Gators' win over LSU last week looks better, thanks to LSU's win over South Carolina.

  • Congradulations to the Wildcats for their very solid win over the Cal Bears. For you sleepy-heads on the east coast who didn't watch this game, you'll want to look for a highlight package. Arizona running back Keola Antolin had 149 yards on 21 carries for 3 touchdowns. I'm pretty sure I heard the announcers say he's a freshman. If he can keep up that kind of production, Arizona is going to be a real threat the rest of the season.