| Game | APR | SRS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texans @ Patriots | Patriots ρ=1.1547 | Patriots δ=9.1 | Patriots -9 |
| Seahawks @ Falcons | Seahawks ρ=1.1422 | Seahawks* δ=5.8 | Falcons -2½ |
| Ravens @ Broncos | Broncos ρ=1.1362 | Broncos δ=6.8 | Broncos -9 |
| Packers @ 49ers | 49ers ρ=1.0348 | 49ers δ=2.5 | 49ers -3 |
Comments:
The Line likes all the home teams. In the 42 divisional rounds played since the merger, all 4 home teams have won 9 times (21.4%). This happened most recently in 2004. Probably not coincidentally, home teams in the wildcard round that year were 1-3.
If the Patriots win this week, it will be the first time a team lost the Super Bowl, and then advanced to the Championship round the following season, since the Bills did it in 1993 (and 1992, and 1991).
Seahawks @ Falcons is the only game this week that is not a rematch of a regular season game.
Once again, I think a Seahawks win will depend on them scoring early and often. A low-scoring game that's close in the 4th quarter benefits the way the Falcons like to play. But as noted earlier, the Falcons get into trouble when they fall behind to a team that can slow down the game.
In their week 1 matchup, the Packers' defense had a very poor game against the 49ers' offense. They didn't force a second punt until the end of the 3rd quarter, and by that time the Packers were behind 23-7. A season's worth of experience should help the Packers there.
On the other hand, the Packers' offense has had a lot of slow starts (their opponent has scored first 9 times this season, including the wildcard game last Saturday). Whatever else happens, the Packers' defense will certainly need to force more than one punt in the first 3 quarters if they are to have a chance to win this game.
