Monday, January 7, 2013

NFL Wildcard: Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Bengals (APR) @ Texans (SRS, Line)
This game went like a lot of other Bengals' losses this season. A.J. Green and Jermaine Gresham were contained, and the Bengals didn't have anyone else who could step up and make a difference. As a result, the Bengals had 127 yards passing, 80 yards rushing, and 3 field goals (as well as a pick 6) on the scoreboard. It really didn't take much for the Texans to overcome that.
Vikings @ Packers (APR, SRS, Line)
The Vikings were forced to start their backup quarterback Joe Webb. For their first drive, it looked like they had a pretty good strategy: hand offs to Adrian Peterson, and quarterback options. They managed to drive 53 yards down the field with just one pass on the whole drive.
After that, the Vikings started calling a lot more pass plays, and at least in this game, Joe Webb was not ready to pass the ball. He had a 37% completion rate and 180 yards (and a lot of that came in garbage time).
Of course, a big part of the reason the passing game was a problem for the Vikings is that the Packers' defense, for the first time this season, managed to contain Adrian Peterson. He was held under 100 yards, and (again, until late in garbage time) well under 4 yards per carry. Even when Christian Ponder is playing, the Vikings' offense is very limited when their running game is contained.
Colts @ Ravens (APR, SRS, Line)
Andrew Luck had a pretty good rookie season, leading the Colts to a 11-5 record and a playoff berth. But if you look at his passing stats, there are a couple things that stand out: a completion rate of 54% is pretty low, and 18 interceptions is pretty high, especially for only 23 touchdowns.
The Ravens' defense made sure both problems were on display in this game: Luck had a 52% completion rate, no touchdowns, and one interception. Somehow the Colts managed to get into Vinatiere's field goal range three times anyway.
On the other side, the Ravens were able to take advantage of the Colts' unremarkable defense, putting up 269 yards passing and 172 yards rushing. With a defensive breakdown like that, The Colts' 9 points were never close to being enough.
Seahawks (APR, SRS, Line) @ Redskins
For one quarter, it sure looked like the Seahawks were in trouble. The Redskins offense came out and put together a couple long touchdown drives, while their defense held the Seahawks to a punt and a field goal.
Unfortunately, after that Robert Griffin III appeared to be injured, and was certainly ineffective. The Redskins' offense didn't have a drive longer than 23 yards the rest of the game, and never came close to scoring again.
The Seahawks' offense didn't look that great against the Redskins' defense, but with the Redskins' offense struggling for most of the game, they didn't need a lot of production to seal a win.


APR 3-1 3-175%
SRS 4-0 4-0100%
Line 4-0 4-0100%