Preseason Power Rankings?!
Yeah, preseason. I've done some (as yet unposted) analysis on preseason games that suggests there's at least some correlation between the way teams perform in the preseason and how they do (at least early) in the regular season.
I was going to do a more in-depth analysis of this during the summer, and present my findings, but computer troubles have derailed that project (for the moment, anyway).
Here's How it Works
Each team's power is computed, based on the APR algorithm. But instead of the game's final score, the game's half-time score is used, instead. Of course, this isn't the steadiest ground in the world: teams don't play for the win like they do in the regular season, and they certainly don't play to be ahead at half time like they play for the win.
On the other hand, good offenses score points, and good defenses get stops, even in preseason. I (somewhat arbitrarily) cut off the second-half results to winnow out the effects of teams playing their second-string and soon-to-be-cut players.
I plan to do a more careful (quarter by quarter and week by week) comparison of preseason to regular season results, but probably not until after the Super Bowl.
The Preseason Half-time Power Rankings for Week 3
| Rank | Power | Team |
| 1) | 1.5256 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2) | 1.5124 | Miami Dolphins |
| 3) | 1.4891 | Carolina Panthers |
| 4) | 1.4540 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 5) | 1.4314 | San Diego Chargers |
| 6) | 1.4303 | New Orleans Saints |
| 7) | 1.3582 | Detroit Lions |
| 8) | 1.3417 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 9) | 1.3386 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 10) | 1.2998 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 11) | 1.2982 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 12) | 1.2885 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 13) | 1.2881 | Oakland Raiders |
| 14) | 1.2704 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 15) | 1.2559 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 16) | 1.2381 | New York Giants |
| 17) | 1.2379 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 18) | 1.2251 | Denver Broncos |
| 19) | 1.2185 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 20) | 1.2170 | New York Jets |
| 21) | 1.2143 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 22) | 1.2135 | Tennessee Titans |
| 23) | 1.2034 | Houston Texans |
| 24) | 1.1895 | Washington Redskins |
| 25) | 1.1790 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 26) | 1.1714 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 27) | 1.1596 | Chicago Bears |
| 28) | 1.1476 | Cleveland Browns |
| 29) | 1.1452 | Saint Louis Rams |
| 30) | 1.0414 | Green Bay Packers |
| 31) | 1.0365 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 32) | 0.8355 | New England Patriots |
