NFL Overtime Playoff Games since 1970

The overtime result of the NFC Championship Game has stirred up the usual complaints about the 'unfairness' of the overtime rules.

With that in mind, I decided to look through pro-football-reference.com's database to see how many playoff games went to overtime since 1970 (the year the NFL and AFL merged). Here's what I found (winning teams are listed in bold):

Date		Visitor		Home		Note
25	Dec 1971	Dolphins	27,	Chiefs	24	Longest NFL game played to date
24	Dec 1977	Raiders	37,	Colts	31	Ghost to the Post
9	Jan 1982	Chargers	41,	Dolphins	38	The Epic in Miami
3	Jan 1987	Jets	20,	Browns	23
11	Jan 1987	Broncos	23,	Browns	20	The Drive
3	Jan 1988	Seahawks	20,	Oilers	23
31	Dec 1989	Steelers	26,	Oilers	23
7	Jan 1990	Rams	19,	Giants	13
3	Jan 1993	Oilers	38,	Bills	41	The Comeback
8	Jan 1994	Steelers	24,	Chiefs	27
17	Jan 1999	Falcons	30,	Vikings	27	Gary Anderson's first miss of the season
30	Dec 2000	Colts	17,	Dolphins	23
19	Jan 2002	Raiders	13,	Patriots	16	The 'tuck rule' game
11	Jan 2003	Steelers	31,	Titans	34
4	Jan 2004	Seahawks	27,	Packers	33
10	Jan 2004	Panthers	29,	Rams	23
11	Jan 2004	Packers	17,	Eagles	20	4th and 26
8	Jan 2005	Jets	20,	Chargers	17
15	Jan 2005	Jets	17,	Steelers	20
14	Jan 2007	Seahawks	24,	Bears	27
20	Jan 2008	Giants	23,	Packers	20
3	Jan 2009	Colts	17,	Chargers	23
10	Jan 2010	Packers	45,	Cardinals	51
24	Jan 2010	Vikings	28,	Saints	31

Comments:

• Of the 24 games listed, 17 (70.8%) were won on a field goal.

• Notice that from 1993-2010, 12 of 16 games (75%) were won by the home team. Which suggests that playing at home is a much more important advantage than winning the coin toss.

• From 1970 to 1998, 10 of the 269 playoff games (3.7%) went to overtime. From 1999-2009, 14 of the 98 playoff games (14.3%) went to overtime. Clearly, overtime games have become much more common; this issue isn't likely to go away.

• This suggests it would be interesting to look at the rate of overtime games in the regular season during this era. However, I gathered part of this data "by hand"; there are way too many regular season games to look at unless the process is fully automated. I will eventually get to it, but not before the off season.

• The result of the first overtime drive for games from the 2001 season to present are detailed here.

NFL Super Bowl Pick

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com.

Game	APR	SRS	Line
New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts	Colts ρ=1.0534	Saints δ=3.74	Colts -5½

Comments:

• Interesting: SRS picks the Saints. Probably because (as mentioned in the previous power rankings) the Colts have a lot of close wins, and a couple big losses when they pulled their starters. Also, SRS is unweighted, so the Saints early big wins count equally with later closer games.

• This is the first time since Super Bowl XXVIII that there's been a 1-seed vs. 1-seed matchup.

• The Colts have been relatively slow on scoring in the first half. The Saints best chance is probably to establish an early lead before the Colts have a chance to get started. Of course, even if they do, Manning knows how to bring the Colts back when he needs to.

• On the other hand, the Saints are the first playoff team the Colts will face with a legitimate passing threat. The Colts had a middle-of-the-pack pass defense in the regular season, so the Saints may at least have a chance to keep up once the scoring starts.

• The NFL is actually on a relatively long streak of reasonably competitive Super Bowls. Super Bowl XXXVII (Raiders vs. Buccaneers) was the last one that wasn't within one score into the fourth quarter.

NFL Championship Power Rankings

2009 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (↑5)	Indianapolis Colts	16-2	6.2691 (LW × 1.152)	won by 13 vs Jets
2 (-)	Carolina Panthers	8-8	6.0203 (LW × 0.980)	Bye
3 (-)	New Orleans Saints	15-3	5.9512 (LW × 0.995)	won by 3 vs Vikings
4 (↓3)	New York Jets	11-8	5.9097 (LW × 0.936)	lost by 13 at Colts
5 (↓1)	Dallas Cowboys	12-6	5.7591 (LW × 0.990)	Bye
6 (↓1)	Minnesota Vikings	13-5	5.3951 (LW × 0.939)	lost by 3 at Saints
7 (-)	New England Patriots	10-7	5.2491 (LW × 0.994)	Bye
8 (-)	San Diego Chargers	13-4	5.1190 (LW × 0.991)	Bye
9 (-)	Atlanta Falcons	9-7	4.8804 (LW × 0.989)	Bye
10 (-)	Green Bay Packers	11-6	4.8503 (LW × 0.987)	Bye
11 (-)	Baltimore Ravens	10-8	4.7078 (LW × 0.999)	Bye
12 (↑1)	Buffalo Bills	6-10	4.6804 (LW × 1.034)	Bye
13 (↓1)	Philadelphia Eagles	11-6	4.6601 (LW × 0.991)	Bye
14 (-)	Houston Texans	9-7	4.4743 (LW × 1.007)	Bye
15 (-)	Pittsburgh Steelers	9-7	4.3225 (LW × 0.987)	Bye
16 (-)	Arizona Cardinals	11-7	3.9856 (LW × 0.983)	Bye
17 (-)	Miami Dolphins	7-9	3.7230 (LW × 0.989)	Bye
18 (↑2)	Tennessee Titans	8-8	3.6352 (LW × 1.009)	Bye
19 (↓1)	Cincinnati Bengals	10-7	3.6264 (LW × 0.982)	Bye
20 (↓1)	New York Giants	8-8	3.5923 (LW × 0.989)	Bye
21 (-)	Denver Broncos	8-8	3.4906 (LW × 0.999)	Bye
22 (-)	San Francisco 49ers	8-8	3.3979 (LW × 0.996)	Bye
23 (↑1)	Cleveland Browns	5-11	3.2135 (LW × 0.995)	Bye
24 (↓1)	Chicago Bears	7-9	3.1487 (LW × 0.973)	Bye
25 (-)	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3-13	3.0404 (LW × 0.990)	Bye
26 (-)	Jacksonville Jaguars	7-9	3.0205 (LW × 1.009)	Bye
27 (-)	Kansas City Chiefs	4-12	2.7529 (LW × 0.996)	Bye
28 (-)	Washington Redskins	4-12	2.6168 (LW × 0.993)	Bye
29 (-)	Oakland Raiders	5-11	2.3930 (LW × 0.991)	Bye
30 (-)	Seattle Seahawks	5-11	1.9916 (LW × 0.997)	Bye
31 (-)	St. Louis Rams	1-15	1.4157 (LW × 0.998)	Bye
32 (-)	Detroit Lions	2-14	1.3956 (LW × 0.985)	Bye

Comments

• The Colts' 2-score win returns them to the #1 spot (they were #1 in week 14, and #2 for most of the rest of the season).

• The Saints gain some power on their win over the Vikings, but (since earlier games have lower weight), it also costs them power by giving many bigger wins in their 13-0 start less weight.

• Perhaps inspired by last years' Cardinals, the Colts seem to have been holding back in the regular season. Of their initial 14 wins, they had 8 by single-digit margins. They had 4 wins by more than 12 points, but all early in the season, and all against relatively weak teams (the Cardinals, Seahawks, Titans, and Rams).

• Is there a way the Saints don't get crushed by the Colts in the Super Bowl? The Saints were only able to keep pace with the Vikings in the NFC Championship game thanks to 2 interceptions and 3 recovered fumbles. The Colts likely aren't going to be so careless.

NFL Championship Game Pick Results

2009 Navigation Links

Pick results for the Championship Games.

Jets (APR, SRS) @ Colts (Line)

The Jets played their game pretty well. But the Colts never seem to give up or panic when they find themselves in a hole, and a first-half lead of just 11 points is just not enough. Unlike the Bengals and Chargers, the Colts were able to keep pressing and keep scoring, and the Jets limited offense just wasn't able to keep up.

Vikings @ Saints (APR, SRS, Line)

This really should've been the Vikings game. The Saints were mostly ineffective on offense, generating just two drives longer than 37 yards. But turnovers (two interceptions and three lost fumbles) gave the Saints short fields for a couple touchdowns, as well as denying Ryan Longwell a chance at a game-clinching field goal at the end of regulation.

Standings:

	This Week	Overall
APR	1-1	5-5
SRS	1-1	5-5
Line	2-0	8-2
Unanimous	1-0	3-1

New power rankings, and the Super Bowl pick to come.

NFL Championship Game Picks

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for a description of SRS.

Line values are taken from yahoo.com.

Game	APR	SRS	Line
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts	Jets ρ=1.1603	Jets δ=1.58	Colts -8
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints	Saints ρ=1.0411	Saints δ=2.57	Saints -4½

Comments:

• The Colts will likely stick to the same game plan they used against the Ravens: establish an early lead, take away the running game, and grind the clock.

• The Jets will likely stick to their same game plan too. They've made it this far with just Sanchez throwing just 38 times in two games. But the Colts defense will certainly be scheming to put Mark Sanchez in a position to throw the ball.

• The Colts light end-of-season load and bye week for the wildcard round of the playoffs could be a major advantage for them as well. The Jets have been playing for their playoff lives for the last four games.

• It's something of a shock to me that the NFC Championship game features the Vikings and Saints—the way both teams finished the regular season, I figured one if not both would be one-and-done in the divisional round.

• One big factor in this game is going to be the Saints' offensive line. If Drew Brees is running for his life like Tony Romo was last week, it's going to be very hard for the Saints to keep up with the Vikings.

NFL Divisional Round Power Rankings

2009 Navigation Links
Read this for a description of APR.

Power Rankings For the Divisional Round

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (↑1)	New York Jets	11-7	6.3165 (LW × 1.038)	won by 3 at Chargers
2 (↑1)	Carolina Panthers	8-8	6.1421 (LW × 1.052)	Bye
3 (↑2)	New Orleans Saints	14-3	5.9801 (LW × 1.088)	won by 31 vs Cardinals
4 (↓3)	Dallas Cowboys	12-6	5.8151 (LW × 0.914)	lost by 31 at Vikings
5 (↑4)	Minnesota Vikings	13-4	5.7441 (LW × 1.169)	won by 31 vs Cowboys
6 (↑4)	Indianapolis Colts	15-2	5.4440 (LW × 1.124)	won by 17 vs Ravens
7 (↓1)	New England Patriots	10-7	5.2807 (LW × 1.025)	Bye
8 (↓4)	San Diego Chargers	13-4	5.1663 (LW × 0.923)	lost by 3 vs Jets
9 (↑2)	Atlanta Falcons	9-7	4.9349 (LW × 1.029)	Bye
10 (↓2)	Green Bay Packers	11-6	4.9133 (LW × 0.967)	Bye
11 (↓4)	Baltimore Ravens	10-8	4.7133 (LW × 0.921)	lost by 17 at Colts
12 (-)	Philadelphia Eagles	11-6	4.7037 (LW × 0.986)	Bye
13 (↑2)	Buffalo Bills	6-10	4.5260 (LW × 1.050)	Bye
14 (-)	Houston Texans	9-7	4.4420 (LW × 1.019)	Bye
15 (↓2)	Pittsburgh Steelers	9-7	4.3796 (LW × 0.986)	Bye
16 (-)	Arizona Cardinals	11-7	4.0541 (LW × 0.949)	lost by 31 at Saints
17 (↑2)	Miami Dolphins	7-9	3.7653 (LW × 1.029)	Bye
18 (↓1)	Cincinnati Bengals	10-7	3.6914 (LW × 0.981)	Bye
19 (↓1)	New York Giants	8-8	3.6327 (LW × 0.976)	Bye
20 (↑1)	Tennessee Titans	8-8	3.6045 (LW × 1.010)	Bye
21 (↓1)	Denver Broncos	8-8	3.4943 (LW × 0.968)	Bye
22 (-)	San Francisco 49ers	8-8	3.4110 (LW × 0.995)	Bye
23 (↑1)	Chicago Bears	7-9	3.2377 (LW × 1.041)	Bye
24 (↓1)	Cleveland Browns	5-11	3.2288 (LW × 0.985)	Bye
25 (-)	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3-13	3.0725 (LW × 1.030)	Bye
26 (-)	Jacksonville Jaguars	7-9	2.9925 (LW × 1.025)	Bye
27 (-)	Kansas City Chiefs	4-12	2.7628 (LW × 0.972)	Bye
28 (-)	Washington Redskins	4-12	2.6364 (LW × 0.974)	Bye
29 (-)	Oakland Raiders	5-11	2.4153 (LW × 0.967)	Bye
30 (-)	Seattle Seahawks	5-11	1.9977 (LW × 1.003)	Bye
31 (↑1)	St. Louis Rams	1-15	1.4184 (LW × 1.012)	Bye
32 (↓1)	Detroit Lions	2-14	1.4173 (LW × 0.994)	Bye

Comments

• The Jets retake the top spot, thanks in part to the Cowboys' complete inability to stop the Vikings' pass rush. The Panthers also benefit indirectly via their week 15 win over the Vikings.

• The Jets were joined by the Saints this week as the only winning teams not to score first. The Jets are also joined by the Colts as the only winning teams not to score at least 33 points total.

• The Packers are still the only losing team that scored more than 14 points. Jets @ Chargers joins Packers @ Cardinals as the only games in the playoffs with more points scored after halftime than before.

• This has been a pretty weak series of playoff games so far. Six of the eight games played have been over by halftime. Five games have ended with the winning team up by at least three scores.

• The full, 32-team power rankings return, so you can see that the Rams and Lions are still locked in a battle for last place.

NFL Divisional Round Pick Results

2009 Navigation Links

Pick results for the Divisional round.

Cardinals @ Saints (APR, SRS, Line)

Rumors of the demise of the Saints offense are apparently greatly exaggerated. Like the Packers last week, the Saints shredded the Cardinals secondary early and often (though without the Packers' early stumbles). Unlike the Packers, the Saints' defense was able to get pressure on Kurt Warner. And, as you saw, Warner doesn't do well under pressure, especially playing from behind.

Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Colts (Line)

This was a masterful game plan on the part of the Colts, executed to near perfection. On defense, the Colts took away the Ravens' main offensive weapons: Ray Rice was held to just 67 yards rushing, and Willis McGahee was a non-factor. On offense, the Colts established a two-touchdown lead by the end of the first half, and spent the second half grinding out the clock, and keeping the Ravens away from the endzone.

Cowboys (APR, SRS) @ Vikings (Line)

How did the Cowboys ever get to 11 wins with such an awful offensive line? Romo was sacked 6 times, constantly harrassed—it's no wonder the Cowboys couldn't sustain a drive all game long, and after the Vikings got their second touchdown, the game was never in doubt.

Jets (APR, SRS) @ Chargers (Line)

As advertised: Sanchez threw for just 100 yards, Green and Jones ran for 169 yards, and the defense held the Chargers to just 14 points. How is this the same team that couldn't beat the Falcons in the Meadowlands in week 15?

Standings:

	This Week	Overall
APR	2-2	4-4
SRS	2-2	4-4
Line	3-1	6-2
Unanimous	1-1	2-1

New power rankings, and Championship Game picks to come.