NFL Week 17 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (10-4)

Right:

Bears @ Lions
Chiefs @ Broncos
Cardinals @ 49ers
Eagles @ Giants
Dolphins @ Patriots
Rams @ Seahawks
Jaguars @ Titans
Raiders @ Chargers
Cowboys @ Redskins
Browns @ Steelers

Wrong:

Buccaneers @ Falcons

The Falcons played their starters the whole game, so this loss can't be blamed on resting key players. But for whatever reason, the Falcons came out very flat. Their offense only had 2 drives longer than 37 yards, and their defense gave up 4 long drives that all ended in scores.

Panthers @ Saints

The Saints defense had their worst game of the season, giving up a season-high 530 yards and near season high 44 points. Drew Brees had a very good game, but was not able to score points as fast as his defense was giving them up.

Packers @ Vikings

Adrian Peterson had another career day. But the difference between this game and the Vikings-Packers match up from week 13 is that Christian Ponder (234 yards and 3 touchdowns passing) had a very good game. As long as Ponder is able to be that good passing, the Vikings are going to be a very, very tough out in the playoffs.

Texans @ Colts

The Texans' offense didn't look good in this game: they settled for field goal tries too many times, Matt Schaub threw a couple critical interceptions, and the once-vaunted Texans defense couldn't stop the Colts from running ou the final 9:46(!) of the 4th quarter. A stunning loss for a team that for most of the season had the best record in the AFC.

Split Picks: (APR: 1-1, SRS: 0-2, Line: 2-0)

Jets (APR, SRS) @ Bills (Line)

The Jets offense couldn't get the ball in the end zone (they were 0/3 in the red zone), Mark Sanchez through another pick 6, and the Jets' defense gave up 3 sustained touchdown drives.

Ravens (SRS) @ Bengals (APR, Line)

As expected, this was a battle of the backups after brief cameos by Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, and a number of other key starters.

Totals

Another pretty decent season for APR.

	This Week					This Season					%
APR	11	-	5			150	-	89	-	1	62.7%
SRS	10	-	6			146	-	93	-	1	61.0%
Line	12	-	4			155	-	84	-	1	64.8%

NFL Week 17 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Broncos	1.0709 (LW × 0.9900)	13-3	Won by 35 vs Chiefs
2 (-)	Seahawks	1.0302 (LW × 1.0069)	11-5	Won by 7 vs Rams
3 (-)	Patriots	1.0243 (LW × 1.0021)	12-4	Won by 28 vs Dolphins
4 (-)	49ers	1.0176 (LW × 0.9987)	11-4-1	Won by 14 vs Cardinals
5 (-)	Packers	0.9633 (LW × 0.9862)	11-5	Lost by 3 @ Vikings
6 (↑2)	Redskins	0.9593 (LW × 1.0211)	10-6	Won by 10 vs Cowboys
7 (-)	Bengals	0.9583 (LW × 1.0197)	10-6	Won by 6 vs Ravens
8 (↑1)	Vikings	0.9403 (LW × 1.0196)	10-6	Won by 3 vs Packers
9 (↓3)	Falcons	0.9323 (LW × 0.9656)	13-3	Lost by 5 vs Buccaneers
10 (↑5)	Panthers	0.9230 (LW × 1.0231)	7-9	Won by 6 @ Saints
11 (↑1)	Ravens	0.9219 (LW × 1.0040)	10-6	Lost by 6 @ Bengals
12 (↓1)	Giants	0.9130 (LW × 0.9932)	9-7	Won by 35 vs Eagles
13 (-)	Bears	0.9025 (LW × 0.9977)	10-6	Won by 2 @ Lions
14 (↓4)	Saints	0.8996 (LW × 0.9757)	7-9	Lost by 6 vs Panthers
15 (↑2)	Colts	0.8871 (LW × 1.0215)	11-5	Won by 12 vs Texans
16 (↓2)	Texans	0.8835 (LW × 0.9770)	12-4	Lost by 12 @ Colts
17 (↑1)	Steelers	0.8785 (LW × 1.0140)	8-8	Won by 14 vs Browns
18 (↓2)	Cowboys	0.8760 (LW × 0.9904)	8-8	Lost by 10 @ Redskins
19 (-)	Rams	0.8720 (LW × 1.0101)	7-8-1	Lost by 7 @ Seahawks
20 (↑2)	Buccaneers	0.8440 (LW × 1.0137)	7-9	Won by 5 @ Falcons
21 (↓1)	Dolphins	0.8427 (LW × 0.9905)	7-9	Lost by 28 @ Patriots
22 (↓1)	Chargers	0.8368 (LW × 1.0004)	7-9	Won by 3 vs Raiders
23 (-)	Browns	0.8115 (LW × 0.9819)	5-11	Lost by 14 @ Steelers
24 (↑2)	Bills	0.8014 (LW × 1.0254)	6-10	Won by 19 vs Jets
25 (↑2)	Titans	0.7819 (LW × 1.0061)	6-10	Won by 18 vs Jaguars
26 (↓1)	Lions	0.7778 (LW × 0.9788)	4-12	Lost by 2 vs Bears
27 (↓3)	Jets	0.7750 (LW × 0.9637)	6-10	Lost by 19 @ Bills
28 (↑1)	Raiders	0.7566 (LW × 1.0099)	4-12	Lost by 3 @ Chargers
29 (↓1)	Cardinals	0.7501 (LW × 0.9953)	5-11	Lost by 14 @ 49ers
30 (-)	Eagles	0.7310 (LW × 0.9962)	4-12	Lost by 35 @ Giants
31 (-)	Chiefs	0.7121 (LW × 1.0246)	2-14	Lost by 35 @ Broncos
32 (-)	Jaguars	0.6744 (LW × 0.9803)	2-14	Lost by 18 @ Titans

Comments:

• The Saints set a new record for yards allowed in a season at 7,042. Football Outsiders has a good article on the 81 Colts and how their record-setting season went. The '12 Saints aren't anywhere near as dysfunctional.

• So the Seahawks' Fail Mary play costs the Packers the #2 seed. But it's hard to get too upset about it when the Packers had a good chance for it anyway, and lost it largely because they couldn't slow down Christian Ponder.

• The Panthers end up the highest ranked team with a losing record, as well as the highest ranked team out of the playoffs. The Panthers finished 6-3 after a 1-6 start.

• The Texans are the lowest ranked team with a winning record, and the lowest ranked team in the playoffs. They really haven't looked good lately.

• With the Giants eliminated from the playoffs, the streak of Super Bowl winning teams not winning a playoff game the subsequent season will be extended to 7 years.

• If the Patriots win the Super Bowl, they will join the 1970-71 Cowboys (SB VI, SB VII) and 1971-72 Dolphins (SB VII, SB VIII) as the only teams to win the Super Bowl the year after they lost it.

NFL Week 17 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Chiefs @ Broncos	Broncos ρ=1.5566	Broncos δ=22.9	Broncos -16
Cardinals @ 49ers	49ers ρ=1.3519	49ers δ=13.1	49ers -16½
Eagles @ Giants	Giants ρ=1.2530	Giants δ=12.7	Giants -7
Dolphins @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.2014	Patriots δ=13.8	Patriots -10
Rams @ Seahawks	Seahawks ρ=1.1852	Seahawks δ=12.6	Seahawks -10½
Buccaneers @ Falcons	Falcons ρ=1.1598	Falcons δ=7.9	Falcons -4½
Bears @ Lions	Bears ρ=1.1384	Bears* δ=10.0	Bears -3
Jaguars @ Titans	Titans ρ=1.1297	Titans δ=1.1	Titans -4
Raiders @ Chargers	Chargers* ρ=1.1166	Chargers δ=9.1	Chargers -10
Cowboys @ Redskins	Redskins* ρ=1.0622	Redskins δ=2.2	Redskins -3
Packers @ Vikings	Packers ρ=1.0591	Packers* δ=4.8	Packers -3
Browns @ Steelers	Steelers* ρ=1.0483	Steelers δ=3.6	Steelers -10
Texans @ Colts	Texans ρ=1.0414	Texans* δ=10.6	Texans -7
Jets @ Bills	Jets ρ=1.0290	Jets* δ=3.1	Bills -3½
Ravens @ Bengals	Bengals* ρ=1.0235	Ravens* δ=1.6	Bengals -2½
Panthers @ Saints	Saints* ρ=1.0219	Saints δ=1.4	Saints -5½

Comments:

• 3 games with no lines as of Wednesday morning. As usual, I will update these later in the week (assuming the status changes). Update: finally done!

• As usual, APR and SRS do not take into account teams that have clinched their playoff seed and have nothing to play for.

• That said, there's still a lot of teams with something to play for. The seeding of the top 4 teams in the AFC is still to be decided. On the NFC side, only the Falcons have their seed clinched, and there are still two open playoff spots.

• There's also a surprising amount of agreement in the picks. I assume the Line is taking the Bills over the Jets because of the McElroy effect.

• The Ravens could theoretically move up to the #3 seed, but either way they (and the Bengals) will be playing on wildcard weekend. Thus, that game is likely to be a battle of the back-ups most of the way, so taking the home team there makes as much sense as anything.

• Your probably-meaningless stat of the week: the Packers are 19-3 in week 17. As you might expect, these games cover the range of possibilities, from resting their players last year, to a must-win game in 2010, to a very bad team playing out the season in 2005.

• The Packers have a chance to clinch the #2 seed and the bye week that goes with it, and so will certainly be playing for the win this week 17.

Week 16 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 16 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Colts (+9)

ESPN gives the Colts a 1-spot bump on their 1-score win over the foundering Chiefs. The good news is they've clinched a playoff spot. Perhaps also counting as good news, they'll likely play the Ravens in the wildcard round, which is one of the few possible opponents that won't mean an easy win for the home team.

Texans (-7)

The Texans are really not giving the impression of a team building up momentum for the playoffs. Since their late October Bye week, they've gone to overtime against a couple bad teams, got blown out by the Patriots, and this week suffered a pretty embarrassing home loss to the Vikings.

On the bubble

Nodbody closer than the Falcons (+4)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Saints (-7)

APR holds the Saints steady on their overtime win over the Cowboys. If this team had any kind of a defense at all, they'd be right in the thick of the playoff chase.

On the bubble

Nobody closer than the Panthers (-5)

NFL Week 16 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (9-4)

Right:

Falcons @ Lions
Patriots @ Jaguars
Redskins @ Eagles
Colts @ Chiefs
Bears @ Cardinals
Browns @ Broncos
Titans @ Packers
Raiders @ Panthers
Bills @ Dolphins

Wrong:

Vikings @ Texans

Somehow the Texans' offense just never got going against the Vikings pretty average defense. The Texans didn't have a single drive go 50 yards, and only had 3 go longer than 28. A big part of that was lack of production in the rushing game. This is the first time the Texans have been held under 40 yards rushing since 2010.

Rams @ Buccaneers

Another really bad game for the Buccaneers' offense. Josh Freeman threw 4 interceptions and was sacked 5 times. Factor in a lost fumble, and only 80 yards of rushing, and it's another ugly loss for the Bucs.

Giants @ Ravens

Not a great day for the Giants' offense (150 yards passing and 67 yards rushing), but for the second time in as many games, their defense was a major problem. The Ravens had a season-high 553 yards of offense in this game, and no turnovers. You're just not going to beat the Ravens if you let Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, and rookie Bernard Pierce all have big games.

49ers @ Seahawks

The 49ers defense just didn't show up for this game. They had one sack, one interception, and gave up 5 touchdown drives, all but one at least 60 yards long. The 49ers won't last long in the playoffs against anybody if they make it a habit of giving up 5 touchdowns every game.

Split Picks: (APR: 2-1, SRS: 3-0, Line: 0-3)

Bengals (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)

If you want to make the case that the Steelers made a mistake firing OC Bruce Arians, this game would be a good place to start. The Steelers managed only two drives longer than 45 yards, and could only score 10 points on the Bengals. The Steelers' defense held the Bengals' offense to just 6 points, but a Roethlisberger pick-6 was enough to make the difference.

Chargers (SRS) @ Jets (APR, Line)

If Greg McElroy is the answer for the Jets, he didn't show it in this game. A 50% completion rate, an interception, and sacked 11 times. Even the Chargers can win against an offense like that.

Saints (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)

As I noted earlier, in spite of their awful defense, Saints still win games as long as Drew Brees has a good game. In this game, Brees threw for 446 yards, 3 touchdowns, and was never sacked. The Saints are now 7-0 when Brees has a passer rating over 110, and the Cowboys are 1-6 when they give up 27 or more points.

Totals

	This Week					This Season					%
APR	11	-	5			139	-	84	-	1	62.3%
SRS	12	-	4			136	-	87	-	1	60.9%
Line	9	-	7			143	-	80	-	1	64.1%

NFL Week 16 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Broncos	1.0818 (LW × 1.0041)	12-3	Won by 22 vs Browns
2 (↑2)	Seahawks	1.0231 (LW × 1.0234)	10-5	Won by 29 vs 49ers
3 (↓1)	Patriots	1.0222 (LW × 0.9647)	11-4	Won by 7 @ Jaguars
4 (↓1)	49ers	1.0189 (LW × 0.9691)	10-4-1	Lost by 29 @ Seahawks
5 (-)	Packers	0.9768 (LW × 0.9923)	11-4	Won by 48 vs Titans
6 (-)	Falcons	0.9656 (LW × 0.9898)	13-2	Won by 13 @ Lions
7 (↑4)	Bengals	0.9398 (LW × 1.0155)	9-6	Won by 3 @ Steelers
8 (↑1)	Redskins	0.9395 (LW × 1.0009)	9-6	Won by 7 @ Eagles
9 (↑7)	Vikings	0.9223 (LW × 1.0387)	9-6	Won by 17 @ Texans
10 (-)	Saints	0.9220 (LW × 0.9949)	7-8	Won by 3 @ Cowboys
11 (↓4)	Giants	0.9193 (LW × 0.9509)	8-7	Lost by 19 @ Ravens
12 (↑3)	Ravens	0.9182 (LW × 1.0250)	10-5	Won by 19 vs Giants
13 (↑1)	Bears	0.9046 (LW × 1.0075)	9-6	Won by 15 @ Cardinals
14 (↓6)	Texans	0.9043 (LW × 0.9379)	12-3	Lost by 17 vs Vikings
15 (↓3)	Panthers	0.9022 (LW × 0.9992)	6-9	Won by 11 vs Raiders
16 (↓3)	Cowboys	0.8846 (LW × 0.9814)	8-7	Lost by 3 vs Saints
17 (-)	Colts	0.8684 (LW × 0.9839)	10-5	Won by 7 @ Chiefs
18 (-)	Steelers	0.8664 (LW × 0.9828)	7-8	Lost by 3 vs Bengals
19 (↑2)	Rams	0.8633 (LW × 1.0207)	7-7-1	Won by 15 @ Buccaneers
20 (-)	Dolphins	0.8508 (LW × 0.9992)	7-8	Won by 14 vs Bills
21 (↑3)	Chargers	0.8365 (LW × 1.0246)	6-9	Won by 10 @ Jets
22 (↓3)	Buccaneers	0.8325 (LW × 0.9527)	6-9	Lost by 15 vs Rams
23 (-)	Browns	0.8264 (LW × 0.9975)	5-10	Lost by 22 @ Broncos
24 (↓2)	Jets	0.8042 (LW × 0.9557)	6-9	Lost by 10 vs Chargers
25 (-)	Lions	0.7946 (LW × 0.9737)	4-11	Lost by 13 vs Falcons
26 (-)	Bills	0.7815 (LW × 0.9638)	5-10	Lost by 14 @ Dolphins
27 (-)	Titans	0.7772 (LW × 0.9702)	5-10	Lost by 48 @ Packers
28 (-)	Cardinals	0.7537 (LW × 0.9692)	5-10	Lost by 15 vs Bears
29 (-)	Raiders	0.7492 (LW × 0.9979)	4-11	Lost by 11 @ Panthers
30 (-)	Eagles	0.7337 (LW × 0.9835)	4-11	Lost by 7 vs Redskins
31 (-)	Chiefs	0.6950 (LW × 0.9993)	2-13	Lost by 7 vs Colts
32 (-)	Jaguars	0.6880 (LW × 0.9912)	2-13	Lost by 7 vs Patriots

Comments:

• I'm not sure how much I believe the Seahawks at #2, but there's no discounting a dominating win over the 49ers, either.

• Congradulations to the Bengals, for back-to-back winning seasons, and playoff appearances, for the first time since the 81-82 seasons.

• The Vikings get a huge upset win, and have somehow clawed their way to a winning season. Adrian Peterson is a big reason, of course, but Christian Ponder has had a couple good games, too.

• Adrian Peterson only got 86 yards rushing Sunday, which means he needs 102 yards to reach 2000, and 208 yards to break Eric Dickerson's record. AP ran for 210 yards when the Vikings played the Packers in week 13.

• Calvin Johnson surpassed Jerry Rice's record for receiving yards in a season, and has a real shot to make it to 2000 next week.

• Thanks to another 400+ yard game, the Saints' defense is within 281 yards of the '81 Colts record for most yards allowed in a season.

NFL Week 16 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Patriots @ Jaguars	Patriots ρ=1.5267	Patriots* δ=26.6	Patriots -14½
Browns @ Broncos	Broncos ρ=1.3004	Broncos δ=13.3	Broncos -14
Colts @ Chiefs	Colts ρ=1.2690	Colts* δ=7.8	Colts -6½
Redskins @ Eagles	Redskins ρ=1.2582	Redskins* δ=11.0	Redskins -4½
Titans @ Packers	Packers ρ=1.2288	Packers δ=14.0	Packers -13
Raiders @ Panthers	Panthers ρ=1.2027	Panthers δ=11.8	Panthers -9½
Falcons @ Lions	Falcons ρ=1.1954	Falcons* δ=10.0	Falcons -4
Bears @ Cardinals	Bears ρ=1.1546	Bears* δ=9.7	Bears -5½
Vikings @ Texans	Texans ρ=1.0859	Texans δ=4.9	Texans -9
Giants @ Ravens	Giants ρ=1.0794	Giants* δ=4.5	Giants -1
49ers @ Seahawks	49ers ρ=1.0518	49ers* δ=1.1	49ers -1
Bills @ Dolphins	Dolphins* ρ=1.0501	Dolphins δ=4.8	Dolphins -4
Bengals @ Steelers	Bengals ρ=1.0499	Bengals* δ=2.8	Steelers -4
Rams @ Buccaneers	Buccaneers* ρ=1.0333	Buccaneers δ=1.3	Buccaneers -3
Chargers @ Jets	Jets* ρ=1.0306	Chargers* δ=1.4	Jets -1
Saints @ Cowboys	Saints ρ=1.0281	Saints* δ=0.9	Cowboys -2½

Comments:

• Adrian Peterson needs 294 yards in the Vikings' final two games to break Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing yards record. Vick Ballard (105) and Chris Johnson (141) are the only players to rush for more than 100 yards on the Texans this season.

• The Saints are 728 yards away from breaking the '81 Colts record for most yards allowed in a season. They've only held their opponent under 364 yards one time this season, in their week 13 loss to the Falcons.

• The '81 Colts record for most points allowed in a season should remain safe for another year. The Raiders or Bills would need to allow 132 points in their final two games to surpass 533 points allowed in a season.

• The Packers are just a half-game behind the 49ers, so the #2 seed in the playoffs will remain in play as long as Green Bay keeps winning.

• Giants @ Ravens should be a telling matchup. Either way it goes, the loser of that game will be in a serious tail-spin. If the Giants lose, it will drop them to 8-7, and could be the end of their playoff hopes. The Ravens have already clinched a playoff spot, but a loss would put their hold on the AFC North in jeopardy, and mean virtually no momentum going into the final game of the season.

• Bengals @ Steelers is another do-or-die matchup this week, with the Steelers needing a win to stay alive in the playoff hunt. The Bengals haven't won in Pittsburgh since 2009.