NFL Super Bowl Game Pick

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Seahawks @ Broncos	Seahawks ρ=1.0645	Seahawks* δ=1.3	Broncos -2

Comments:

• The Broncos really haven't faced any strong defenses this year (possibly excepting the Chiefs, but the way they finished their season, I'm not sure how strong they really were). In any case, the Seahawks will easily be the best defense they've faced all season.

• The Broncos' defense has at least a couple ugly breakdowns this year. In week 5, the Broncos managed a win thanks to the fact that the Cowboys had a really bad defense. In Week 12, they saw a 24-point lead slowly slip away at the Patriots.

• But the line has some good reasons to favor the Broncos in this game. First of all, the Seahawks are just not the same team when they're playing away from their home stadium, and the Meadowlands is a long, long ways away from Seattle.

• And since their early December win over the Saints, the Seahawks haven't really looked that dominating. They suffered a couple losses (including their first home loss in two years), and both their playoff games came down to the last play of the game.

• However this game goes, I think it's going to be decided when the Broncos' offense and the Seahawks' defense are on the field. If the Broncos' offensive line can protect Manning, and he can figure out how to move the ball against that defense while the game is still close, it'll probably go the Broncos' way. If the Broncos' offense struggles for very long, I think the Seahawks' offense can score enough points pretty quickly to put this game away.

NFL Championship Week Pick Results

Winning teams in bold.

Patriots @ Broncos (APR, SRS, Line)

The Patriots seemed to have a lot of plays available to them on offense (that overthrown pass to Edelman being the best example), but they couldn't take advantage, at least not as much as they needed to. I wonder how much that's Brady not being on the same page with his receivers, and how much it's Brady getting old.

The Broncos defense seemed like they gave up a lot of plays, but with the way their offense was scoring points (they scored every time they had the ball, except for their first and last drives), the Broncos' defense really didn't need to get a lot of stops, and they got as many as they needed.

49ers @ Seahawks (APR, SRS, Line)

The good news for the 49ers is, they played their best game in Seattle of the Wilson/Kaepernick era, including establishing an early 10 point lead. But they were only able to add one more touchdown to that total, and meanwhile the Seahawks kept chipping away at their lead, and finally managed to pull ahead in the 4th quarter.

I wonder how much of this is Colin Kaepernick having trouble playing in high pressure situations. After their final touchdown, the 49ers offense produced a punt, a lost fumble, and two interceptions. That last interception seemed to me to be particularly bad. If Kaepernick had just thrown the ball away, the 49ers still would've had 2nd and 10 at the 18, with 0:22 left, and probably 3 more chances at a go ahead touchdown. Instead, he threw at probably the Seahawks' best DB, with disastrous results, and the game was over.

Totals

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	2	-	0			9	-	1		90%
SRS	2	-	0			8	-	2		80%
Line	2	-	0			8	-	2		80%

NFL Championship Week Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Seahawks	1.1377 (LW × 1.0099)	15-3	Won by 6 vs 49ers
2 (-)	49ers	1.1224 (LW × 1.0049)	14-5	Lost by 6 @ Seahawks
3 (↑1)	Broncos	1.0688 (LW × 1.0159)	15-3	Won by 10 vs Patriots
4 (↓1)	Cardinals	1.0587 (LW × 1.0029)	10-6	Bye
5 (↑1)	Saints	1.0225 (LW × 1.0021)	12-6	Bye
6 (↑1)	Panthers	1.0169 (LW × 0.9997)	12-5	Bye
7 (↓2)	Patriots	1.0108 (LW × 0.9886)	13-5	Lost by 10 @ Broncos
8 (-)	Chargers	1.0102 (LW × 1.0049)	10-8	Bye
9 (-)	Bengals	0.9797 (LW × 0.9994)	11-6	Bye
10 (-)	Rams	0.9612 (LW × 1.0028)	7-9	Bye
11 (-)	Eagles	0.9399 (LW × 1.0008)	10-7	Bye
12 (-)	Steelers	0.9298 (LW × 0.9976)	8-8	Bye
13 (-)	Colts	0.9154 (LW × 1.0009)	11-6	Bye
14 (↑1)	Chiefs	0.8995 (LW × 1.0042)	11-6	Bye
15 (↓1)	Dolphins	0.8978 (LW × 0.9973)	8-8	Bye
16 (-)	Giants	0.8849 (LW × 1.0021)	7-9	Bye
17 (-)	Buccaneers	0.8713 (LW × 1.0007)	4-12	Bye
18 (-)	Ravens	0.8675 (LW × 0.9975)	8-8	Bye
19 (-)	Titans	0.8559 (LW × 1.0036)	7-8	Bye
20 (-)	Vikings	0.8513 (LW × 1.0005)	5-10-1	Bye
21 (-)	Bills	0.8470 (LW × 0.9982)	6-10	Bye
22 (-)	Falcons	0.8399 (LW × 1.0011)	4-12	Bye
23 (-)	Cowboys	0.8362 (LW × 1.0010)	8-8	Bye
24 (-)	Bears	0.8301 (LW × 0.9997)	8-8	Bye
25 (↑1)	Lions	0.8272 (LW × 0.9995)	7-9	Bye
26 (↓1)	Jets	0.8263 (LW × 0.9981)	8-8	Bye
27 (-)	Packers	0.8150 (LW × 1.0002)	8-8-1	Bye
28 (-)	Jaguars	0.7935 (LW × 1.0016)	4-12	Bye
29 (↑1)	Raiders	0.7497 (LW × 1.0032)	4-12	Bye
30 (↓1)	Browns	0.7472 (LW × 0.9977)	4-12	Bye
31 (-)	Texans	0.7467 (LW × 1.0019)	2-14	Bye
32 (-)	Redskins	0.7399 (LW × 1.0023)	3-13	Bye

Comments:

• If the 49ers had won, they would have been the first Super Bowl losers to return since the Bills did it in 93.

• This week marks three championship game appearances in a row for both the Patriots and 49ers. Both have gone 1-2. Both the Broncos and Seahawks fell a win short of advancing to the championship round last year.

• Between their last Super Bowl appearance and their win over the Chargers a week ago, the Broncos were 2-6 in the playoffs. The Seahawks have gone 3-3 in the playoffs since their last Super Bowl appearance.

• I was a little surprised the 49ers made such a game of it today, and had a chance to win at the end of the game. Maybe another sign (along with the their loss to the Cardinals last month) that the Seahawks' defense isn't quite as dominating as it used to be.

NFL Championship Week Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Patriots @ Broncos	Broncos ρ=1.0289	Broncos δ=4.7	Broncos -4½
49ers @ Seahawks	Seahawks* ρ=1.0085	Seahawks δ=3.0	Seahawks -3½

Comments:

• Can the Patriots get by the Broncos to give Tom Brady a chance at a fourth Super Bowl ring? The Broncos defense hasn't been amazing this year, including giving up 17 points late in last Sunday's game against the Chargers. It seems likely the Patriots will look for every opportunity to exploit that.

  On the other hand, the Patriots really don't have an impressive road record this season, with losses to the Bengals, Dolphins, and Jets. They also needed 4th quarter comebacks to beat the Texans and the Bills. It's always dangerous to underestimate Belichick and Brady, but unless the Broncos just pull a face plant, I think this is where the Patriots season finally ends.

• Two times the Russell Wilson-era Seahawks have faced the Colin Kaepernick-era 49ers in Seattle, and two times the Seahawks have come away with convincing wins. Is there any reason to think that's going to be different the third time?

  I think the 49ers defense is good enough to hold the Seahawks to a reasonably low number of points on offense. But looking back at their week 2 matchup, probably the most striking thing is the 49ers almost complete inability to move the ball on offense. They only had two drives longer than 28 yards. The 49ers are gonna need a lot more than that from their offense to come away with an upset this week.

NFL Divisional Round Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Things went largely as expected this week, so not too much to say about the games.

Saints @ Seahawks (APR, SRS, Line)

The Saints' defense did surprisingly well in this game, holding the Seahawks to just 16 points until late in the 4th quarter. The problem was, the Saints' offense didn't get going until the 4th quarter, and by then it was just too late to make up the difference.

Colts @ Patriots (APR, SRS, Line)

The Colts turned the ball over on their opening drive, and never seemed to quite recover their equillibrium. They did manage to keep the game within 7 points going into the 4th quarter, but too many turnovers and too much LeGarrette Blount was more than the Colts could handle.

49ers (APR, SRS, Line) @ Panthers

It didn't seem like the Panthers' defense did a terrible job in this game, but given the offense they have, they needed to do better. The Panthers were 0-4 (including this game) when their opponent scored more than 20 points.

Chargers @ Broncos (APR, SRS, Line)

The Chargers' defense did an okay job slowing down the Broncos offense, holding them to just 17 points through 3 quarters. But their offense just couldn't get going at all. They seemed to find something late when Rivers started throwing a lot of deep balls, but by then it was too late, and once the Broncos' offense got the ball back, they were able to run out the clock for the win.

Totals

No upsets (and no split picks)!

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	4	-	0			7	-	1		83%
SRS	4	-	0			6	-	2		75%
Line	4	-	0			6	-	2		75%

NFL Divisional Round Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Seahawks	1.1265 (LW × 1.0090)	14-3	Won by 8 vs Saints
2 (-)	49ers	1.1170 (LW × 1.0210)	14-4	Won by 13 @ Panthers
3 (↑1)	Cardinals	1.0557 (LW × 1.0007)	10-6	Bye
4 (↑2)	Broncos	1.0520 (LW × 1.0167)	14-3	Won by 7 vs Chargers
5 (↑2)	Patriots	1.0225 (LW × 1.0152)	13-4	Won by 21 vs Colts
6 (↓1)	Saints	1.0203 (LW × 0.9859)	12-6	Lost by 8 @ Seahawks
7 (↓4)	Panthers	1.0172 (LW × 0.9632)	12-5	Lost by 13 vs 49ers
8 (-)	Chargers	1.0052 (LW × 1.0038)	10-8	Lost by 7 @ Broncos
9 (-)	Bengals	0.9803 (LW × 0.9982)	11-6	Bye
10 (-)	Rams	0.9586 (LW × 0.9980)	7-9	Bye
11 (-)	Eagles	0.9392 (LW × 0.9979)	10-7	Bye
12 (-)	Steelers	0.9320 (LW × 0.9998)	8-8	Bye
13 (-)	Colts	0.9146 (LW × 0.9832)	11-6	Lost by 21 @ Patriots
14 (-)	Dolphins	0.9003 (LW × 0.9960)	8-8	Bye
15 (-)	Chiefs	0.8958 (LW × 1.0001)	11-6	Bye
16 (-)	Giants	0.8830 (LW × 1.0010)	7-9	Bye
17 (-)	Buccaneers	0.8706 (LW × 0.9934)	4-12	Bye
18 (-)	Ravens	0.8697 (LW × 1.0000)	8-8	Bye
19 (-)	Titans	0.8528 (LW × 1.0014)	7-8	Bye
20 (-)	Vikings	0.8509 (LW × 0.9994)	5-10-1	Bye
21 (-)	Bills	0.8485 (LW × 0.9975)	6-10	Bye
22 (-)	Falcons	0.8389 (LW × 0.9937)	4-12	Bye
23 (-)	Cowboys	0.8353 (LW × 0.9986)	8-8	Bye
24 (↑1)	Bears	0.8303 (LW × 0.9989)	8-8	Bye
25 (↓1)	Jets	0.8279 (LW × 0.9939)	8-8	Bye
26 (-)	Lions	0.8276 (LW × 0.9986)	7-9	Bye
27 (-)	Packers	0.8149 (LW × 1.0006)	8-8-1	Bye
28 (-)	Jaguars	0.7923 (LW × 0.9999)	4-12	Bye
29 (-)	Browns	0.7489 (LW × 1.0002)	4-12	Bye
30 (-)	Raiders	0.7474 (LW × 1.0014)	4-12	Bye
31 (-)	Texans	0.7453 (LW × 1.0008)	2-14	Bye
32 (-)	Redskins	0.7381 (LW × 1.0018)	3-13	Bye

Comments:

• All remaining teams are in the top 5, along with the staying-at-home Cardinals. It's really too bad the Cardinals couldn't make it into the playoffs. I feel like they really had a chance to make a run, even playing on the road. Certainly if you imagine some hypothetical scenario where they were awarded a playoff seed on the AFC side.

• I had two thoughts in rapid succession on the last play of the Saints-Seahawks game. First, how on earth did the Seahawks' defense let Marques Colston get that open right next to the sideline? And second, is Marques Colston a complete idiot?

  If Colston had just stepped out of bounds, Brees would at least have had a chance at a 40 yard pass to the endzone. Not the highest percentag play, but it's gotta be better than any sort of lateral play (even supposing Colston's pass had not been illegal).

• Peyton Manning avoids adding yet another one-and-done playoff run to his resume. He's actually had 4 years where he's won at least one playoff game, including a couple Super Bowl runs.

• While the Broncos and Patriots are ranked #4 and #5, there's a pretty good gap between their respective power indexes. That will be a matchup ρ of 1.0288, compared to a ρ of 1.0085 for the 49ers-Seahawks game.

NFL Divisional Round Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Colts @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.0827	Patriots δ=1.3	Patriots -7½
Saints @ Seahawks	Seahawks ρ=1.0788	Seahawks δ=4.6	Seahawks -7½
49ers @ Panthers	49ers ρ=1.0360	49ers* δ=0.6	49ers -1
Chargers @ Broncos	Broncos* ρ=1.0333	Broncos δ=7.8	Broncos -10

Comments:

• I haven't been real impressed with the Patriots this season, but I don't think the Colts are gonna be the ones to knock them out of the playoffs. When the Patriots have lost this season, it's mostly been because their offense has struggled with their opponents' defense.

  The Colts (as evidenced last Saturday) have an unremarkable defense at best, and I don't think they have enough to slow down the Patriots. And unlike the Chiefs, Bill Belechick and Tom Brady know how to hang on to a 4 touchdown lead.

• The Saints played the Seahawks in Seattle week 13, and got clobbered. Since then, the Seahawks have lost twice, including once to the Cardinals in Seattle, so the Saints have at least some idea of what it takes to win. But I just don't feel like the Saints' defense is as good as the Cardinals or 49ers, so unless the Seahawks just come out really flat, this game should go the Seahawks way again.

• I think on paper, the Panthers are a better team than the 49ers. Especially playing at home, this is a game the Panthers should win. That said, I think there's a couple factors working in the 49ers favor.

  First of all, this is another case of a quarterback and head coach (Kaepernick and Harbaugh) with playoff experience versus a pair (Newton and Rivera) with none. I think this is a less extreme case than the Saints-Eagles matchup last week, but it is there.

  Second, and probably more important, I wonder how ready the Panthers are to play in the high-pressure, high attention environment of the playoffs. The Panthers' last loss came week 14 in a Sunday night prime time matchup at the Saints. If they come out as flat as they were in that game, the 49ers will clobber them.

• Of course, the Chargers got a big-time upset over the Broncos in Denver week 15. And Peyton Manning is notorious for one-and-done playoff appearances. That said, unless the Broncos turn the ball over like the Bengals did, I think this is where the clock chime midnight on the Chargers Cinderella season.