NCAA Final Top 30+

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Final AP rankings will be added after they are released.

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (-)	Alabama AP=1	14-0	8.6491 (LW × 1.107)	won by 16 vs Texas
2 (↑1)	Florida AP=3	13-1	7.4805 (LW × 1.168)	won by 27 at Cincinnati
3 (↓1)	Texas AP=2	13-1	6.5225 (LW × 0.878)	lost by 16 at Alabama
4 (↑3)	Virginia-Tech AP=10	10-3	5.9896 (LW × 1.100)	won by 23 at Tennessee
5 (↑3)	TCU AP=6	12-1	5.8100 (LW × 1.078)	lost by 7 vs Boise-St
6 (↑4)	Ohio-St AP=5	11-2	5.6282 (LW × 1.061)	won by 9 at Oregon
7 (↓3)	Texas-Tech AP=21	9-4	5.6127 (LW × 0.973)	won by 10 vs Michigan-St
8 (↓3)	Oklahoma AP=rv(90)	8-5	5.3889 (LW × 0.942)	won by 4 at Stanford
9 (↓3)	Arkansas AP=rv(3)	8-5	5.3337 (LW × 0.968)	won by 3 at East-Carolina
10 (↑2)	Mississippi AP=20	9-4	5.2837 (LW × 1.037)	won by 14 vs Oklahoma-St
11 (↑3)	Boise-St AP=4	14-0	5.2563 (LW × 1.087)	won by 7 at TCU
12 (↑9)	Iowa AP=7	11-2	5.0337 (LW × 1.146)	won by 10 at Georgia-Tech
13 (↑3)	Nebraska AP=14	10-4	5.0107 (LW × 1.067)	won by 33 vs Arizona
14 (↓3)	Penn-St AP=9	11-2	4.9742 (LW × 0.958)	won by 2 at LSU
15 (↓6)	Oregon AP=11	10-3	4.8239 (LW × 0.908)	lost by 9 vs Ohio-St
16 (↑20)	BYU AP=12	11-2	4.7202 (LW × 1.324)	won by 24 vs Oregon-St
17 (↓4)	Georgia-Tech AP=13	11-3	4.6411 (LW × 0.936)	lost by 10 vs Iowa
18 (↓1)	LSU AP=17	9-4	4.5010 (LW × 0.992)	lost by 2 vs Penn-St
19 (↓4)	Cincinnati AP=8	12-1	4.4646 (LW × 0.941)	lost by 27 vs Florida
20 (↑4)	Pittsburgh AP=15	10-3	4.4552 (LW × 1.065)	won by 2 at North-Carolina
21 (↓3)	Miami-FL AP=19	9-4	4.3745 (LW × 0.965)	lost by 6 at Wisconsin
22 (↑9)	Georgia AP=rv(7)	8-5	4.3531 (LW × 1.141)	won by 24 vs Texas-A&M
23 (↓4)	Stanford AP=rv(67)	8-5	4.1467 (LW × 0.930)	lost by 4 vs Oklahoma
24 (↓1)	Auburn AP=rv(8)	8-5	4.1196 (LW × 0.984)	won by 3 vs Northwestern
25 (↑5)	Wisconsin AP=16	10-3	4.0787 (LW × 1.069)	won by 6 vs Miami-FL
26 (↑3)	Clemson AP=24	9-5	4.0627 (LW × 1.026)	won by 8 vs Kentucky
27 (↓2)	West-Virginia AP=25	9-3	3.9846 (LW × 0.961)	lost by 12 at Florida-St
28 (↓8)	Oklahoma-St AP=rv(40)	9-4	3.9287 (LW × 0.884)	lost by 14 at Mississippi
29 (↑16)	Florida-St AP=rv(6)	7-6	3.9260 (LW × 1.249)	won by 12 vs West-Virginia
30 (↓2)	North-Carolina	8-5	3.9133 (LW × 0.973)	lost by 2 vs Pittsburgh
Other notable teams:
33 (↑1)	USC AP=22	9-4	3.8352 (LW × 1.031)	won by 11 vs Boston-Coll
34 (↑14)	Rutgers AP=rv(37)	9-4	3.7716 (LW × 1.239)	won by 21 vs UCF
35 (↑24)	Air-Force AP=rv(3)	8-5	3.7666 (LW × 1.384)	won by 27 vs Houston
36 (↑6)	Connecticut AP=rv(5)	8-5	3.7633 (LW × 1.137)	won by 13 vs South-Carolina
37 (↓15)	Oregon-St AP=rv(89)	8-5	3.6879 (LW × 0.871)	lost by 24 at BYU
38 (↑12)	Utah AP=18	10-3	3.6788 (LW × 1.227)	won by 10 at California
39 (↑24)	Navy AP=rv(85)	10-4	3.6205 (LW × 1.392)	won by 22 at Missouri
41 (↓3)	Cent-Michigan AP=23	11-2	3.4578 (LW × 0.985)	won by 3 at Troy
43 (↓8)	Arizona AP=rv(5)	8-5	3.3083 (LW × 0.897)	lost by 33 at Nebraska
54 (↑12)	Middle-Tenn-St AP=rv(4)	10-3	2.9123 (LW × 1.135)	won by 10 vs Southern-Miss

Pick Standings

Bowl games were picked in this post. Unlike last year, there were only a handful of split picks. But like last year, APR did the worst:

Line:	18-16	(52.9%)
SRS:	17-17	(50.0%)
APR:	16-18	(47.1%)
Unanimous:	13-14	(48.1%)

Comments:

• Once again, a pretty unremarkable record for bowl game picks. At least APR did better than 36% this year.

• One thing that has occurred to me lately is that a neutral-field game is essentially a road game for both teams. And one thing I've really noticed this year is that there are some otherwise good teams that just tank on the road. Something else to look at in the off-season.

• Colt McCoy going out early in the BCS Championship Game has to be a little bit of a bummer for Alabama. Beating Texas when they are playing their backup quarterback just isn't the same. At least they didn't lose to Texas playing their backup quarterback.

• Lowest ranked teams to win a game: Idaho (#91) in the Humanitarian Bowl, and Wyoming (#86) in New Mexico Bowl.

• Biggest Bowl upsets (according to APR): Wyoming defeating Fresno St (New Mexico Bowl) and SMU defeating Nevada (Hawaii Bowl).

• Villanova (14-1 and the FCS champion) received 2 votes in the AP poll, but all FCS teams are removed from APR's rankings as a matter of course, and so are not listed here.

NCAA: Bowl Game Picks 2009

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.
Line values are taken from yahoo.com, and are for comparison purposes only.

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Michigan-St (49) @ Texas-Tech (4)	Texas-Tech ρ=1.9007	Texas-Tech δ=15.61	Texas-Tech -7
Fresno-St (65) @ Wyoming (98)	Fresno-St ρ=1.6771	Fresno-St δ=12.84	Fresno-St -10½
Nevada (39) @ SMU (76)	Nevada ρ=1.5880	Nevada δ=16.08	Nevada -14
Arkansas (6) @ East-Carolina (40)	Arkansas ρ=1.5849	Arkansas δ=13.17	Arkansas -8
Northwestern (58) @ Auburn (23)	Auburn ρ=1.5287	Auburn δ=14.54	Auburn -7½
Navy (63) @ Missouri (32)	Missouri ρ=1.4589	Missouri δ=4.67	Missouri -6
Bowling-Green (70) @ Idaho (91)	Bowling-Green ρ=1.4312	Bowling-Green δ=4.54	Idaho -1
Florida (3) @ Cincinnati (15)	Florida ρ=1.3508	Florida δ=9.93	Florida -10
West-Virginia (25) @ Florida-St (45)	West-Virginia ρ=1.3185	West-Virginia δ=4.37	West-Virginia -3
Virginia-Tech (7) @ Tennessee (26)	Virginia-Tech ρ=1.3179	Virginia-Tech δ=7.54	Virginia-Tech -4½
Boston-Coll (53) @ USC (34)	USC ρ=1.2972	USC δ=5.84	USC -9
Houston (37) @ Air-Force (59)	Houston ρ=1.2938	Houston δ=2.57	Houston -4½
Oklahoma (5) @ Stanford (19)	Oklahoma ρ=1.2834	Oklahoma δ=10.30	Oklahoma -9½
Arizona (35) @ Nebraska (16)	Nebraska ρ=1.2726	Nebraska δ=6.39	Arizona -1
Kentucky (43) @ Clemson (29)	Clemson ρ=1.2216	Clemson δ=6.76	Clemson -7
South-Florida (68) @ Northern-Illinois (81)	South-Florida ρ=1.2057	South-Florida δ=1.05	South-Florida -6½
Miami-FL (18) @ Wisconsin (30)	Miami-FL ρ=1.1880	Miami-FL δ=5.82	Miami-FL -3
Oregon-St (22) @ BYU (36)	Oregon-St ρ=1.1871	Oregon-St δ=1.03	Oregon-St -2
Ohio (55) @ Marshall (72)	Ohio ρ=1.1761	Ohio δ=5.43	Ohio -2
Oklahoma-St (20) @ Mississippi (12)	Mississippi ρ=1.1462	Mississippi δ=0.63	Mississippi -3
Cent-Michigan (38) @ Troy (47)	Cent-Michigan ρ=1.1462	Cent-Michigan δ=12.83	Cent-Michigan -4
Penn-St (11) @ LSU (17)	Penn-St ρ=1.1440	Penn-St δ=1.18	Penn-St -3
Iowa (21) @ Georgia-Tech (13)	Georgia-Tech ρ=1.1299	Georgia-Tech δ=5.65	Georgia-Tech -4
Boise-St (14) @ TCU (8)	TCU ρ=1.1144	TCU δ=6.35	TCU -7
Minnesota (64) @ Iowa-St (71)	Minnesota ρ=1.0758	Minnesota δ=2.42	Minnesota -2½
Texas-A&M (27) @ Georgia (31)	Texas-A&M ρ=1.0737	Georgia δ=3.55	Georgia -7
UCLA (61) @ Temple (56)	Temple ρ=1.0735	UCLA δ=4.57	UCLA -4
Utah (50) @ California (44)	California ρ=1.0590	Utah δ=2.67	California -3
Texas (2) @ Alabama (1)	Alabama ρ=1.0509	Texas δ=1.93	Alabama -5
Pittsburgh (24) @ North-Carolina (28)	Pittsburgh ρ=1.0402	Pittsburgh δ=4.41	Pittsburgh -3
UCF (52) @ Rutgers (48)	Rutgers ρ=1.0394	UCF δ=0.33	Rutgers -2½
Southern-Miss (60) @ Middle-Tenn-St (66)	Southern-Miss ρ=1.0281	Southern-Miss δ=1.89	Southern-Miss -3½
South-Carolina (41) @ Connecticut (42)	South-Carolina ρ=1.0176	South-Carolina δ=0.51	South-Carolina -4½
Ohio-St (10) @ Oregon (9)	Oregon ρ=1.0012	Oregon δ=1.80	Oregon -3½

Comments:

• The number in parentheses after the team names represents APR's end-of-season ranking.

• Only 7 disagreements. Last year, SRS was the big winner on bowl picks. This year I'm using a modified version of APR, which might account for more of the APR/SRS agreement.

• Mississippi State (#33) and Washington (#46) are the highest-ranked teams not listed above, but neither are bowl-eligible.

• Highest ranked eligible teams not invited to a bowl: Notre Dame (#51) and Kansas State (#54).

• Lowest ranked teams invited to a bowl: Idaho (#91) and Wyoming (#98).

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, Week 14

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Official rankings will be added after they are published.

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (↑1)	Alabama BCS=1	13-0	7.8120 (LW × 1.102)	won by 19 vs Florida
2 (↓1)	Texas BCS=2	13-0	7.4355 (LW × 0.934)	won by 1 at Nebraska
3 (-)	Florida BCS=5	12-1	6.4083 (LW × 0.912)	lost by 19 at Alabama
4 (-)	Texas-Tech	8-4	5.7708 (LW × 0.988)	Bye
5 (-)	Oklahoma	7-5	5.7246 (LW × 0.985)	Bye
6 (-)	Arkansas	7-5	5.5098 (LW × 0.996)	Bye
7 (↑1)	Virginia-Tech BCS=11	9-3	5.4480 (LW × 1.000)	Bye
8 (↓1)	TCU BCS=4	12-0	5.3956 (LW × 0.990)	Bye
9 (↑2)	Oregon BCS=7	10-2	5.3112 (LW × 1.028)	won by 4 vs Oregon-St
10 (-)	Ohio-St BCS=8	10-2	5.3024 (LW × 1.025)	Bye
11 (↑1)	Penn-St BCS=13	10-2	5.1895 (LW × 1.015)	Bye
12 (↑1)	Mississippi	8-4	5.0952 (LW × 1.009)	Bye
13 (↑2)	Georgia-Tech BCS=9	11-2	4.9651 (LW × 1.011)	won by 5 at Clemson
14 (↓5)	Boise-St BCS=6	13-0	4.8267 (LW × 0.907)	won by 35 vs New-Mexico-St
15 (↓1)	Cincinnati BCS=3	12-0	4.7427 (LW × 0.960)	won by 1 at Pittsburgh
16 (-)	Nebraska BCS=22	9-4	4.6985 (LW × 1.015)	lost by 1 vs Texas
17 (↑3)	LSU BCS=12	9-3	4.5386 (LW × 1.021)	Bye
18 (↓1)	Miami-FL BCS=15	9-3	4.5375 (LW × 0.991)	Bye
19 (-)	Stanford BCS=21	8-4	4.4544 (LW × 1.002)	Bye
20 (↓2)	Oklahoma-St BCS=19	9-3	4.4496 (LW × 0.986)	Bye
21 (↑1)	Iowa BCS=10	10-2	4.3895 (LW × 1.034)	Bye
22 (↑2)	Oregon-St BCS=18	8-4	4.2308 (LW × 1.004)	lost by 4 at Oregon
23 (↑4)	Auburn	7-5	4.1856 (LW × 1.015)	Bye
24 (↓3)	Pittsburgh BCS=17	9-3	4.1809 (LW × 0.949)	lost by 1 vs Cincinnati
25 (-)	West-Virginia BCS=16	9-2	4.1479 (LW × 0.985)	won by 3 at Rutgers
26 (↑2)	Tennessee	7-5	4.1343 (LW × 1.003)	Bye
27 (↓1)	Texas-A&M	6-6	4.1017 (LW × 0.985)	Bye
28 (↑1)	North-Carolina	8-4	4.0223 (LW × 0.994)	Bye
29 (↓6)	Clemson	8-5	3.9598 (LW × 0.934)	lost by 5 vs Georgia-Tech
30 (↑2)	Georgia	7-5	3.8176 (LW × 0.999)	Bye
Other notable teams:
31 (↑9)	Wisconsin BCS=25	9-3	3.8104 (LW × 1.104)	won by 41 at Hawaii
34 (↓4)	USC BCS=24	8-4	3.7160 (LW × 0.921)	lost by 4 vs Arizona
35 (↑7)	Arizona BCS=20	8-4	3.6873 (LW × 1.089)	won by 4 at USC
36 (-)	BYU BCS=14	10-2	3.5721 (LW × 0.991)	Bye
37 (↓4)	Houston	10-3	3.5213 (LW × 0.932)	lost by 6 at East-Carolina
50 (↓2)	Utah BCS=23	9-3	3.0003 (LW × 0.988)	Bye

Comments:

• In spite of APR having them closely ranked, Alabama vs Florida was only close in the first half.

• And Texas really had a sloppy game against Nebraska. Probably the worst sequence was Colt McCoy's final incompletion, where the whole team seemed unaware the game clock was about to expire. If they play like that in the Championship Game, Alabama is going to run away with it.

• Arizona had a better, but still weak offensive game against USC. If they play Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl, it could be very ugly for them. The good news is that Arizona will have the rest of the month to get healthy before they play.

• Stay tuned. There's more NCAA stuff to come, including the Bowl picks.

NCAA: Apr's Top 30+, Week 13

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Official rankings will be added after they are published.

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (-)	Texas BCS=3	12-0	7.9646 (LW × 1.006)	won by 10 at Texas-A&M
2 (-)	Alabama BCS=2	12-0	7.0867 (LW × 1.049)	won by 5 at Auburn
3 (-)	Florida BCS=1	12-0	7.0284 (LW × 1.153)	won by 27 vs Florida-St
4 (-)	Texas-Tech	8-4	5.8383 (LW × 0.965)	won by 7 at Baylor
5 (↑10)	Oklahoma	7-5	5.8105 (LW × 1.159)	won by 27 vs Oklahoma-St
6 (-)	Arkansas	7-5	5.5312 (LW × 0.999)	lost by 3 at LSU
7 (↓2)	TCU BCS=4	12-0	5.4522 (LW × 0.904)	won by 41 vs New-Mexico
8 (↑1)	Virginia-Tech BCS=12	9-3	5.4504 (LW × 1.023)	won by 29 at Virginia
9 (↑10)	Boise-St BCS=6	12-0	5.3198 (LW × 1.153)	won by 11 vs Nevada
10 (-)	Ohio-St BCS=8	10-2	5.1738 (LW × 0.972)	Bye
11 (↑3)	Oregon BCS=7	9-2	5.1680 (LW × 1.000)	Bye
12 (↓1)	Penn-St BCS=11	10-2	5.1153 (LW × 0.963)	Bye
13 (↓5)	Mississippi	8-4	5.0479 (LW × 0.946)	lost by 14 at Mississippi-St
14 (↓2)	Cincinnati BCS=5	11-0	4.9421 (LW × 0.941)	won by 13 vs Illinois
15 (↓8)	Georgia-Tech BCS=10	10-2	4.9094 (LW × 0.890)	lost by 6 vs Georgia
16 (↑1)	Nebraska BCS=22	9-3	4.6269 (LW × 0.960)	won by 8 at Colorado
17 (↑5)	Miami-FL BCS=17	9-3	4.5774 (LW × 1.031)	won by 21 at South-Florida
18 (↓5)	Oklahoma-St BCS=20	9-3	4.5122 (LW × 0.870)	lost by 27 at Oklahoma
19 (↑4)	Stanford BCS=24	8-4	4.4446 (LW × 1.016)	won by 7 vs Notre-Dame
20 (↑9)	LSU BCS=13	9-3	4.4440 (LW × 1.178)	won by 3 vs Arkansas
21 (↓5)	Pittsburgh BCS=15	9-2	4.4075 (LW × 0.881)	lost by 3 at West-Virginia
22 (↑2)	Iowa BCS=9	10-2	4.2465 (LW × 0.973)	Bye
23 (↓5)	Clemson	8-4	4.2385 (LW × 0.894)	lost by 17 at South-Carolina
24 (↑1)	Oregon-St BCS=16	8-3	4.2144 (LW × 0.992)	Bye
25 (↑2)	West-Virginia BCS=23	8-2	4.2103 (LW × 1.041)	won by 3 vs Pittsburgh
26 (↓5)	Texas-A&M	6-6	4.1654 (LW × 0.924)	lost by 10 vs Texas
27 (↑1)	Auburn	7-5	4.1228 (LW × 1.027)	lost by 5 vs Alabama
28 (↑4)	Tennessee	7-5	4.1218 (LW × 1.140)	won by 6 at Kentucky
29 (↓9)	North-Carolina	8-4	4.0480 (LW × 0.885)	lost by 1 at NC-State
30 (-)	USC BCS=18	8-3	4.0347 (LW × 1.083)	won by 21 vs UCLA
Other notable teams:
33 (-)	Houston BCS=21	10-2	3.7779 (LW × 1.052)	won by 59 vs Rice
36 (↑1)	BYU BCS=14	10-2	3.6063 (LW × 1.033)	won by 3 vs Utah
38 (↓4)	California BCS=19	8-3	3.5160 (LW × 0.983)	Bye
48 (↓5)	Utah BCS=25	9-3	3.0356 (LW × 0.943)	lost by 3 at BYU

Comments:

• Alabama and Florida are now in a virtual tie.

• Arkansas loses to LSU, and barely budges. But they're getting a lot of power from recent wins over South Carolina, Mississippi, and (yes) Troy.

• And Oklahoma is another 7-5 team in the top 10. But they're 4-2 in their last 6, and have a 3-point loss to APR's #1 Texas.

• While Texas A&M is still getting an enormous amount of power from their 22-point win over Texas Tech (week 8), and lesser but still significant power from their 25-point win over Iowa State (week 9) and 35-point win over Baylor (week 13).

• Arizona really looked anemic against ASU. They converted just 2 of 15 third downs, and (apart from one 67 yard run), had just 62 yards rushing on 19 attempts. They got the winning field goal because ASU muffed a late punt. Like last week against Oregon, the defense faded down the stretch, and ASU would've had a real chance to win if they'd held on to the ball (or even just gotten to overtime).

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, Week 12

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Official rankings will be added after they are published. Sorry about this being later than usual. Long day on Saturday, and didn't realize it until I was watching football Sunday afternoon.

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (-)	Texas BCS=3	11-0	7.9155 (LW × 0.942)	won by 31 vs Kansas
2 (-)	Alabama BCS=2	11-0	6.7540 (LW × 0.934)	won by 45 vs Chattanooga
3 (-)	Florida BCS=1	11-0	6.0935 (LW × 0.913)	won by 59 vs Florida-Intl
4 (↑11)	Texas-Tech	7-4	6.0472 (LW × 1.220)	won by 28 vs Oklahoma
5 (↓1)	TCU BCS=4	11-0	6.0340 (LW × 0.961)	won by 35 at Wyoming
6 (↑5)	Arkansas	7-4	5.5379 (LW × 1.063)	won by 21 vs Mississippi-St
7 (↓2)	Georgia-Tech BCS=7	10-1	5.5148 (LW × 0.968)	Bye
8 (↑4)	Mississippi BCS=25	8-3	5.3376 (LW × 1.038)	won by 12 vs LSU
9 (↓1)	Virginia-Tech BCS=14	8-3	5.3294 (LW × 0.965)	won by 28 vs NC-State
10 (↓1)	Ohio-St BCS=10	10-2	5.3251 (LW × 0.985)	won by 11 at Michigan
11 (↑11)	Penn-St BCS=13	10-2	5.3121 (LW × 1.192)	won by 28 at Michigan-St
12 (↑4)	Cincinnati BCS=5	10-0	5.2547 (LW × 1.071)	Bye
13 (↓6)	Oklahoma-St BCS=12	9-2	5.1853 (LW × 0.929)	won by 3 vs Colorado
14 (↓4)	Oregon BCS=8	9-2	5.1674 (LW × 0.975)	won by 3 at Arizona
15 (↓9)	Oklahoma	6-5	5.0122 (LW × 0.884)	lost by 28 at Texas-Tech
16 (↑3)	Pittsburgh BCS=9	9-1	5.0019 (LW × 1.083)	Bye
17 (↓3)	Nebraska	8-3	4.8202 (LW × 0.969)	won by 14 vs Kansas-St
18 (↓1)	Clemson BCS=18	8-3	4.7416 (LW × 0.967)	won by 13 vs Virginia
19 (↓1)	Boise-St BCS=6	11-0	4.6154 (LW × 0.975)	won by 31 at Utah-St
20 (↑6)	North-Carolina BCS=24	8-3	4.5742 (LW × 1.092)	won by 18 at Boston-Coll
21 (↑6)	Texas-A&M	6-5	4.5092 (LW × 1.109)	won by 35 vs Baylor
22 (↓1)	Miami-FL BCS=17	8-3	4.4411 (LW × 0.986)	won by 18 vs Duke
23 (↓10)	Stanford	7-4	4.3758 (LW × 0.875)	lost by 6 vs California
24 (↓1)	Iowa BCS=11	10-2	4.3662 (LW × 1.005)	won by 12 vs Minnesota
25 (↓5)	Oregon-St BCS=16	8-3	4.2496 (LW × 0.932)	won by 32 at Washington-St
26 (↓1)	Missouri	7-4	4.1928 (LW × 0.996)	won by 10 vs Iowa-St
27 (↑8)	West-Virginia	7-2	4.0430 (LW × 1.106)	Bye
28 (-)	Auburn	7-4	4.0153 (LW × 1.003)	Bye
29 (↓5)	LSU BCS=15	8-3	3.7721 (LW × 0.896)	lost by 12 at Mississippi
30 (↑2)	USC BCS=20	7-3	3.7267 (LW × 0.973)	Bye
Other notable teams:
33 (↑1)	Houston BCS=23	9-2	3.5918 (LW × 0.965)	won by 41 vs Memphis
34 (↑8)	California BCS=22	8-3	3.5778 (LW × 1.104)	won by 6 at Stanford
37 (↑6)	BYU BCS=19	9-2	3.4904 (LW × 1.080)	won by 17 vs Air-Force
43 (↑2)	Utah BCS=21	9-2	3.2201 (LW × 1.024)	won by 31 vs San-Diego-St

Comments:

• Florida drops a little more than Alabama, it's still (hypothetically) a pretty close match-up.

• Arizona had a tough loss to Oregon at home. They were up by 10 points in the 4th quarter, but the defense was gassed, and couldn't stop Oregon forcing overtime, and couldn't hold Oregon in overtime.

• Texas Tech somehow claws their way into the top 5. But that 22-point loss to Texas A&M (APR #21) is something of a head-scratcher.

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, Week 11

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Official rankings will be added after they are published.

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (-)	Texas BCS=3	10-0	8.4091 (LW × 1.057)	won by 33 at Baylor
2 (↑1)	Alabama BCS=2	10-0	7.2006 (LW × 1.105)	won by 28 at Mississippi-St
3 (↓1)	Florida BCS=1	10-0	6.6688 (LW × 0.965)	won by 10 at South-Carolina
4 (-)	TCU BCS=4	10-0	6.2829 (LW × 1.073)	won by 27 vs Utah
5 (↑6)	Oklahoma	6-4	5.7179 (LW × 1.139)	won by 55 vs Texas-A&M
6 (↑3)	Georgia-Tech BCS=7	10-1	5.6265 (LW × 1.043)	won by 39 at Duke
7 (↑3)	Oklahoma-St BCS=12	8-2	5.5837 (LW × 1.092)	won by 7 vs Texas-Tech
8 (↓3)	Ohio-St BCS=10	9-2	5.4061 (LW × 0.946)	won by 3 vs Iowa
9 (↓2)	Virginia-Tech BCS=15	7-3	5.3114 (LW × 0.972)	won by 27 at Maryland
10 (↓2)	Oregon BCS=11	8-2	5.3028 (LW × 0.971)	won by 23 vs Arizona-St
11 (↑6)	Arkansas	6-4	5.2037 (LW × 1.105)	won by 36 vs Troy
12 (↑19)	Mississippi	7-3	5.1313 (LW × 1.319)	won by 25 vs Tennessee
13 (↑14)	Stanford BCS=17	7-3	5.0016 (LW × 1.241)	won by 34 at USC
14 (↑8)	Nebraska	7-3	4.9776 (LW × 1.096)	won by 14 at Kansas
15 (↓9)	Texas-Tech	6-4	4.9617 (LW × 0.888)	lost by 7 at Oklahoma-St
16 (↓4)	Clemson BCS=23	7-3	4.8839 (LW × 1.003)	won by 20 at NC-State
17 (↓4)	Cincinnati BCS=5	10-0	4.8759 (LW × 1.007)	won by 3 vs West-Virginia
18 (↑1)	Boise-St BCS=6	10-0	4.7745 (LW × 1.028)	won by 38 vs Idaho
19 (↑1)	Pittsburgh BCS=9	9-1	4.6064 (LW × 0.998)	won by 5 vs Notre-Dame
20 (↑8)	Oregon-St BCS=19	7-3	4.5583 (LW × 1.133)	won by 27 vs Washington
21 (↓6)	Miami-FL BCS=20	7-3	4.4603 (LW × 0.938)	lost by 9 at North-Carolina
22 (↓8)	Penn-St BCS=14	9-2	4.4551 (LW × 0.930)	won by 11 vs Indiana
23 (↓5)	Iowa BCS=13	9-2	4.3466 (LW × 0.924)	lost by 3 at Ohio-St
24 (↑16)	Missouri	6-4	4.2133 (LW × 1.287)	won by 26 at Kansas-St
25 (↓4)	LSU BCS=8	8-2	4.2085 (LW × 0.926)	won by 8 vs Louisiana-Tech
26 (↓10)	Texas-A&M	5-5	4.0718 (LW × 0.864)	lost by 55 at Oklahoma
27 (↑7)	North-Carolina	7-3	4.0401 (LW × 1.068)	won by 9 vs Miami-FL
28 (↓2)	Auburn	7-4	3.9847 (LW × 0.980)	lost by 7 at Georgia
29 (↑13)	Nevada	7-3	3.9264 (LW × 1.243)	won by 38 vs Fresno-St
30 (↓5)	Tennessee	5-5	3.8780 (LW × 0.941)	lost by 25 at Mississippi
Other notable teams:
31 (↓2)	Wisconsin BCS=16	8-2	3.8590 (LW × 0.977)	won by 21 vs Michigan
32 (↓9)	USC BCS=18	7-3	3.8291 (LW × 0.894)	lost by 34 vs Stanford
33 (↓3)	Arizona	6-3	3.7607 (LW × 0.963)	lost by 8 at California
34 (↓10)	Houston BCS=24	8-2	3.7580 (LW × 0.903)	lost by 5 at UCF
42 (↓6)	BYU BCS=22	8-2	3.2405 (LW × 0.950)	won by 5 at New-Mexico
43 (↑9)	California BCS=25	7-3	3.2379 (LW × 1.086)	won by 8 vs Arizona
45 (↓4)	Utah BCS=21	8-2	3.1467 (LW × 0.983)	lost by 27 at TCU

Comments:

• This ranking doesn't include the East Carolina (#67) @ Tulsa (#80) scheduled for Sunday night.

• Will the BCS ever drop Florida out of #1 if they remain unbeaten? They sure don't seem as dominant as they were last year.

• USC actually drops out of APR's top 30. They just got smoked by Stanford, and can't be all that sure at this point they can beat Arizona to close out their schedule.

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, Week 10

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Official rankings will be added after they are published.

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (-)	Texas BCS=3	9-0	7.9381 (LW × 0.974)	won by 32 vs UCF
2 (-)	Florida BCS=1	9-0	6.9071 (LW × 0.893)	won by 24 vs Vanderbilt
3 (-)	Alabama BCS=2	9-0	6.5171 (LW × 0.967)	won by 9 vs LSU
4 (↑1)	TCU BCS=4	9-0	5.8434 (LW × 1.021)	won by 43 at San-Diego-St
5 (↑10)	Ohio-St BCS=11	8-2	5.7131 (LW × 1.208)	won by 17 at Penn-St
6 (-)	Texas-Tech	6-3	5.5817 (LW × 0.977)	Bye
7 (↓3)	Oregon BCS=13	7-2	5.4728 (LW × 0.832)	lost by 9 at Stanford
8 (↑2)	Virginia-Tech BCS=21	6-3	5.4657 (LW × 1.023)	won by 13 at East-Carolina
9 (↓2)	Georgia-Tech BCS=7	9-1	5.3924 (LW × 0.947)	won by 3 vs Wake-Forest
10 (↑10)	Oklahoma-St BCS=19	7-2	5.1009 (LW × 1.143)	won by 26 at Iowa-St
11 (↓3)	Oklahoma	5-4	5.0168 (LW × 0.912)	lost by 7 at Nebraska
12 (↑11)	Clemson	6-3	4.8678 (LW × 1.124)	won by 16 vs Florida-St
13 (↑1)	Cincinnati BCS=5	9-0	4.8454 (LW × 0.985)	won by 2 vs Connecticut
14 (↓1)	Penn-St BCS=18	8-2	4.7899 (LW × 0.961)	lost by 17 vs Ohio-St
15 (↑10)	Miami-FL BCS=14	7-2	4.7516 (LW × 1.120)	won by 35 vs Virginia
16 (↓4)	Arkansas	5-4	4.7078 (LW × 0.927)	won by 17 vs South-Carolina
17 (↓6)	Texas-A&M	5-4	4.7042 (LW × 0.881)	lost by 1 at Colorado
18 (↓9)	Iowa BCS=10	9-1	4.7017 (LW × 0.862)	lost by 7 vs Northwestern
19 (↓2)	Boise-St BCS=6	9-0	4.6724 (LW × 1.023)	won by 10 at Louisiana-Tech
20 (↓2)	Pittsburgh BCS=12	8-1	4.6166 (LW × 1.016)	won by 27 vs Syracuse
21 (↓5)	LSU BCS=8	7-2	4.5407 (LW × 0.968)	lost by 9 at Alabama
22 (↑6)	Nebraska	6-3	4.5304 (LW × 1.141)	won by 7 vs Oklahoma
23 (↓4)	USC BCS=9	7-2	4.2943 (LW × 0.951)	won by 5 at Arizona-St
24 (-)	Houston BCS=15	8-1	4.1572 (LW × 0.974)	won by 1 at Tulsa
25 (↓3)	Tennessee	5-4	4.1195 (LW × 0.943)	won by 28 vs Memphis
26 (↓5)	Auburn	7-3	4.0647 (LW × 0.922)	won by 32 vs Furman
27 (↑12)	Stanford	6-3	4.0476 (LW × 1.179)	won by 9 vs Oregon
28 (↑5)	Oregon-St BCS=23	6-3	4.0306 (LW × 1.155)	won by 17 at California
29 (-)	Wisconsin BCS=20	7-2	3.9499 (LW × 1.002)	won by 3 at Indiana
30 (-)	Arizona BCS=17	6-2	3.9091 (LW × 0.993)	won by 41 vs Washington-St
Other Notable Teams:
32 (-)	West-Virginia BCS=25	7-1	3.8190 (LW × 0.982)	won by 8 vs Louisville
38 (↑9)	BYU BCS=22	7-2	3.3989 (LW × 1.110)	won by 52 at Wyoming
41 (-)	Utah BCS=16	8-1	3.2069 (LW × 0.954)	won by 31 vs New-Mexico
50 (↓1)	South-Florida BCS=24	5-2	3.0157 (LW × 0.994)	Bye

Comments:

• This ranking doesn't include the Nevada @ San Jose St. game, scheduled for Sunday night. But since both teams are down in the weeds, it shouldn't be a big deal.

• A lot of upsets this week, though I can't say I'm exactly surprised Iowa or Cal lost.

• USC's offense struggled mightily against ASU's defense. Their scoring consisted of a pick-6 and one (1) 75-yard touchdown play. The only other time they were even in field-goal range was off another interception (the FG attempt fell short). If they don't get better offensive production, USC will be in real danger of more losses this season.

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, Week 9

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Official rankings will be added after they are published.

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (↑2)	Texas BCS=2	8-0	8.1502 (LW × 1.147)	won by 27 at Oklahoma-St
2 (↓1)	Florida BCS=1	8-0	7.7337 (LW × 1.024)	won by 24 vs Georgia
3 (↓1)	Alabama BCS=3	8-0	6.7361 (LW × 0.931)	Bye
4 (↑4)	Oregon BCS=8	7-1	6.5810 (LW × 1.165)	won by 27 vs USC
5 (↓1)	TCU BCS=6	8-0	5.7228 (LW × 0.907)	won by 41 vs UNLV
6 (↑5)	Texas-Tech	6-3	5.7124 (LW × 1.129)	won by 21 vs Kansas
7 (↓1)	Georgia-Tech BCS=10	8-1	5.6927 (LW × 0.941)	won by 25 at Vanderbilt
8 (↑1)	Oklahoma BCS=24	5-3	5.5014 (LW × 1.000)	won by 12 vs Kansas-St
9 (↓2)	Iowa BCS=4	9-0	5.4541 (LW × 0.958)	won by 18 vs Indiana
10 (↓5)	Virginia-Tech BCS=23	5-3	5.3417 (LW × 0.866)	lost by 3 vs North-Carolina
11 (↑13)	Texas-A&M	5-3	5.3386 (LW × 1.229)	won by 25 vs Iowa-St
12 (↑1)	Arkansas	4-4	5.0788 (LW × 1.018)	won by 36 vs East-Michigan
13 (↑3)	Penn-St BCS=11	8-1	4.9822 (LW × 1.029)	won by 21 at Northwestern
14 (↓2)	Cincinnati BCS=5	8-0	4.9208 (LW × 0.981)	won by 21 at Syracuse
15 (↑7)	Ohio-St BCS=16	7-2	4.7282 (LW × 1.076)	won by 45 vs New-Mexico-St
16 (↓2)	LSU BCS=9	7-1	4.6905 (LW × 0.957)	won by 42 vs Tulane
17 (-)	Boise-St BCS=7	8-0	4.5680 (LW × 0.946)	won by 38 vs San-Jose-St
18 (↑3)	Pittsburgh BCS=13	7-1	4.5458 (LW × 1.014)	Bye
19 (↓9)	USC BCS=12	6-2	4.5168 (LW × 0.863)	lost by 27 at Oregon
20 (↓1)	Oklahoma-St BCS=19	6-2	4.4619 (LW × 0.954)	lost by 27 vs Texas
21 (↑13)	Auburn	6-3	4.4079 (LW × 1.192)	won by 13 vs Mississippi
22 (↑1)	Tennessee	4-4	4.3667 (LW × 0.998)	won by 18 vs South-Carolina
23 (↓5)	Clemson	5-3	4.3294 (LW × 0.910)	won by 46 vs Coastal-Carolina
24 (↑4)	Houston BCS=15	7-1	4.2671 (LW × 1.055)	won by 7 vs Southern-Miss
25 (↓10)	Miami-FL BCS=17	6-2	4.2421 (LW × 0.867)	won by 1 at Wake-Forest
26 (↓6)	Mississippi	5-3	4.0082 (LW × 0.880)	lost by 13 at Auburn
27 (-)	Kansas-St	5-4	3.9996 (LW × 0.969)	lost by 12 at Oklahoma
28 (↑2)	Nebraska	5-3	3.9711 (LW × 0.995)	won by 10 at Baylor
29 (↑20)	Wisconsin BCS=21	6-2	3.9421 (LW × 1.304)	won by 37 vs Purdue
30 (↓4)	Arizona BCS=18	5-2	3.9367 (LW × 0.930)	Bye
31 (↓6)	Notre-Dame BCS=22	6-2	3.9184 (LW × 0.921)	won by 26 vs Washington-St
Other Notable Teams:
36 (↓3)	California BCS=20	6-2	3.4804 (LW × 0.939)	won by 2 at Arizona-St
41 (-)	Utah BCS=14	7-1	3.3603 (LW × 1.024)	won by 12 vs Wyoming
49 (↓1)	South-Florida BCS=25	5-2	3.0344 (LW × 0.999)	Bye

Comments:

• This ranking doesn't include the Marshall @ UCF game, scheduled for Sunday night. But since both teams are down in the weeds, it shouldn't be a big deal.

• Texas and Florida are head-and-shoulders above everyone else. There's another big drop-off between #5 TCU and #6 Texas Tech.

• Oregon moves up to a well-earned spot at #4—they just dominated USC for the whole game.

• In spite of the 18-point final margin, Iowa was in real trouble this weekend. At one point in the 3rd quarter, they were down 21-7, and didn't go down more thanks to the flukiest interception I've ever seen.

• Iowa still needs to play at Ohio State in a couple weeks, so (especially given the way they played today), it's not going to be a cake-walk for them to finish unbeaten.

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, Week 8

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Official rankings will be added after they are published.

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (↑1)	Florida BCS=1	7-0	7.5491 (LW × 1.016)	won by 10 at Mississippi-St
2 (↓1)	Alabama BCS=2	8-0	7.2354 (LW × 0.961)	won by 2 vs Tennessee
3 (-)	Texas BCS=3	7-0	7.1082 (LW × 1.011)	won by 24 at Missouri
4 (↑3)	TCU BCS=6	7-0	6.3121 (LW × 1.136)	won by 31 at BYU
5 (↓1)	Virginia-Tech BCS=13	5-2	6.1698 (LW × 1.013)	Bye
6 (↑4)	Georgia-Tech BCS=11	7-1	6.0470 (LW × 1.157)	won by 25 at Virginia
7 (↓2)	Iowa BCS=4	8-0	5.6931 (LW × 0.975)	won by 2 at Michigan-St
8 (↑3)	Oregon BCS=10	6-1	5.6466 (LW × 1.089)	won by 24 at Washington
9 (↑7)	Oklahoma	4-3	5.4988 (LW × 1.286)	won by 22 at Kansas
10 (↓2)	USC BCS=5	6-1	5.2348 (LW × 0.951)	won by 6 vs Oregon-St
11 (↓5)	Texas-Tech	5-3	5.0575 (LW × 0.902)	lost by 22 vs Texas-A&M
12 (↓3)	Cincinnati BCS=8	7-0	5.0185 (LW × 0.950)	won by 31 vs Louisville
13 (-)	Arkansas	3-4	4.9873 (LW × 1.008)	lost by 13 at Mississippi
14 (↑10)	LSU BCS=9	6-1	4.9021 (LW × 1.239)	won by 21 vs Auburn
15 (↓1)	Miami-FL BCS=19	5-2	4.8947 (LW × 0.991)	lost by 3 vs Clemson
16 (↑9)	Penn-St BCS=12	7-1	4.8428 (LW × 1.226)	won by 25 at Michigan
17 (↓5)	Boise-St BCS=7	7-0	4.8303 (LW × 0.964)	won by 45 at Hawaii
18 (-)	Clemson	4-3	4.7584 (LW × 1.139)	won by 3 at Miami-FL
19 (↑12)	Oklahoma-St BCS=14	6-1	4.6779 (LW × 1.259)	won by 27 at Baylor
20 (↑21)	Mississippi BCS=25	5-2	4.5543 (LW × 1.387)	won by 13 vs Arkansas
21 (↑9)	Pittsburgh BCS=15	7-1	4.4826 (LW × 1.203)	won by 27 vs South-Florida
22 (↑1)	Ohio-St BCS=17	6-2	4.3937 (LW × 1.102)	won by 31 vs Minnesota
23 (↓6)	Tennessee	3-4	4.3739 (LW × 1.044)	lost by 2 at Alabama
24 (↑54)	Texas-A&M	4-3	4.3423 (LW × 2.141)	won by 22 at Texas-Tech
25 (↓3)	Notre-Dame BCS=23	5-2	4.2533 (LW × 1.050)	won by 4 vs Boston-Coll
26 (↑3)	Arizona BCS=20	5-2	4.2308 (LW × 1.125)	won by 14 vs UCLA
27 (↑36)	Kansas-St	5-3	4.1263 (LW × 1.606)	won by 14 vs Colorado
28 (-)	Houston BCS=18	6-1	4.0444 (LW × 1.060)	won by 23 vs SMU
29 (↓14)	Kansas	5-2	4.0051 (LW × 0.846)	lost by 22 vs Oklahoma
30 (↓11)	Nebraska	4-3	3.9915 (LW × 0.959)	lost by 2 vs Iowa-St
Other notable teams:
31 (↓11)	West-Virginia BCS=21	6-1	3.9646 (LW × 0.963)	won by 4 vs Connecticut
33 (↓7)	California BCS=24	5-2	3.7077 (LW × 0.962)	won by 32 vs Washington-St
41 (↑3)	Utah BCS=16	6-1	3.2820 (LW × 1.046)	won by 7 vs Air-Force
44 (↑5)	South-Carolina BCS=22	6-2	3.1103 (LW × 1.040)	won by 4 vs Vanderbilt

Comments:

• Note there is a major drop-off of power from #3 to #4. TCU would need another 13% increase to overtake where Texas is now.

• Arkansas is getting an enormous amount of power from their last three games (beat Auburn, lost by 2 @ Florida, lost by 13 @ Mississippi).

• And Texas A&M is getting an enormous amount of power from their win over Texas Tech (nearly three times as much as their next-most powerful game).

• UCLA played Arizona as close as they did thanks to the Wildcats giving up 3 interceptions and 2 fumbles. With Washington State, Cal, and ASU coming up, Arizona has a decent shot to get to 8 wins this season.

• Congratulations to the Arizona Wildcats for their BCS ranking! They've got a bye next week, so they've got at least two more weeks to enjoy it.

• California seems like a pretty shaky team to be ranked. Two big-time losses to Oregon and USC are not a good sign.

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, Week 7

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Official rankings will be added after they are published.

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (-)	Alabama AP=1	7-0	7.5253 (LW × 0.929)	won by 14 vs South-Carolina
2 (-)	Florida AP=2	6-0	7.4327 (LW × 1.011)	won by 3 vs Arkansas
3 (↑2)	Texas AP=3	6-0	7.0277 (LW × 1.260)	won by 3 vs Oklahoma
4 (↓1)	Virginia-Tech AP=15	5-2	6.0916 (LW × 0.920)	lost by 5 at Georgia-Tech
5 (↑4)	Iowa AP=7	7-0	5.8404 (LW × 1.141)	won by 10 at Wisconsin
6 (↑41)	Texas-Tech AP=21	5-2	5.6090 (LW × 1.864)	won by 21 at Nebraska
7 (↑6)	TCU AP=10	6-0	5.5548 (LW × 1.208)	won by 38 vs Colorado-St
8 (↑2)	USC AP=4	5-1	5.5062 (LW × 1.078)	won by 7 at Notre-Dame
9 (↑2)	Cincinnati AP=5	6-0	5.2810 (LW × 1.058)	won by 17 at South-Florida
10 (↑15)	Georgia-Tech AP=11	6-1	5.2252 (LW × 1.379)	won by 5 vs Virginia-Tech
11 (↑1)	Oregon AP=12	5-1	5.1857 (LW × 1.058)	Bye
12 (↓5)	Boise-St AP=6	6-0	5.0124 (LW × 0.924)	won by 7 at Tulsa
13 (↓9)	Arkansas AP=rv(8)	3-3	4.9464 (LW × 0.881)	lost by 3 at Florida
14 (↑2)	Miami-FL AP=8	5-1	4.9389 (LW × 1.114)	won by 20 at UCF
15 (↓9)	Kansas AP=24	5-1	4.7366 (LW × 0.864)	lost by 4 at Colorado
16 (↑2)	Oklahoma AP=25	3-3	4.2743 (LW × 0.990)	lost by 3 at Texas
17 (-)	Tennessee	3-3	4.1882 (LW × 0.969)	Bye
18 (↑21)	Clemson	3-3	4.1767 (LW × 1.304)	won by 35 vs Wake-Forest
19 (↓11)	Nebraska AP=rv(52)	4-2	4.1638 (LW × 0.776)	lost by 21 vs Texas-Tech
20 (↑10)	West-Virginia AP=22	5-1	4.1168 (LW × 1.146)	won by 17 vs Marshall
21 (↓1)	Auburn AP=rv(3)	5-2	4.1155 (LW × 0.986)	lost by 7 vs Kentucky
22 (↓7)	Notre-Dame AP=rv(61)	4-2	4.0510 (LW × 0.910)	lost by 7 vs USC
23 (↓9)	Ohio-St AP=18	5-2	3.9856 (LW × 0.870)	lost by 8 at Purdue
24 (↓2)	LSU AP=9	5-1	3.9557 (LW × 0.999)	Bye
25 (↑23)	Penn-St AP=13	6-1	3.9490 (LW × 1.335)	won by 20 vs Minnesota
26 (↑18)	California AP=rv(9)	4-2	3.8537 (LW × 1.263)	won by 19 at UCLA
27 (↓4)	Oregon-St AP=rv(5)	4-2	3.8197 (LW × 0.983)	Bye
28 (↑15)	Houston AP=17	5-1	3.8162 (LW × 1.249)	won by 28 at Tulane
29 (↑3)	Arizona AP=rv(25)	4-2	3.7612 (LW × 1.094)	won by 5 vs Stanford
30 (↓6)	Pittsburgh AP=20	6-1	3.7251 (LW × 0.973)	won by 7 at Rutgers
Other Notable Teams:
31 (↑5)	Oklahoma-St AP=14	5-1	3.7155 (LW × 1.104)	won by 16 vs Missouri
34 (↓15)	South-Florida AP=rv(57)	5-1	3.5995 (LW × 0.859)	lost by 17 vs Cincinnati
36 (↓8)	Michigan AP=rv(41)	5-2	3.4231 (LW × 0.929)	won by 57 vs Delaware-St
38 (↑12)	Boston-Coll AP=rv(3)	5-2	3.3451 (LW × 1.151)	won by 32 vs NC-State
41 (↑5)	Mississippi AP=rv(59)	4-2	3.2839 (LW × 1.090)	won by 35 vs UAB
42 (↓13)	Wisconsin AP=rv(4)	5-2	3.1596 (LW × 0.869)	lost by 10 vs Iowa
44 (↓4)	Utah AP=19	5-1	3.1367 (LW × 0.985)	won by 20 at UNLV
45 (↓11)	BYU AP=16	6-1	3.1303 (LW × 0.918)	won by 10 at San-Diego-St
49 (↑2)	South-Carolina AP=23	5-2	2.9914 (LW × 1.031)	lost by 14 at Alabama
53 (↓4)	Navy AP=rv(4)	5-2	2.8929 (LW × 0.982)	won by 3 at SMU
55 (↑14)	Cent-Michigan AP=rv(39)	6-1	2.8362 (LW × 1.274)	won by 11 at W-Michigan
57 (↓24)	Missouri AP=rv(4)	4-2	2.7369 (LW × 0.800)	lost by 16 at Oklahoma-St
64 (↓10)	Idaho AP=rv(4)	6-1	2.5438 (LW × 0.932)	won by 12 vs Hawaii

Comments:

• APR hsa Alabama and Florida ranked very close. Texas isn't too far away, but there's a big drop off in the power index to #4 Virginia Tech.

• Arkansas justifies their high ranking (in spite of their now 3-3 record) by playing Florida very close.

• Iowa has a good shot at finishing undefeated. All their remaining games are in the Big 10, with Ohio State the only team on that list better than 4-3 right now.

• Arizona gets a flukey, come-from-behind win over Stanford, a week after giving up a flukey, come-from-behind win to Washington.

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, Week 6

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Official rankings will be added after they are published.

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (-)	Alabama AP=2	6-0	8.0997 (LW × 1.203)	won by 19 at Mississippi
2 (↑3)	Florida AP=1	5-0	7.3533 (LW × 1.427)	won by 10 at LSU
3 (↑1)	Virginia-Tech AP=4	5-1	6.6194 (LW × 1.267)	won by 34 vs Boston-Coll
4 (↑27)	Arkansas AP=rv(16)	3-2	5.6156 (LW × 1.668)	won by 21 vs Auburn
5 (↓2)	Texas AP=3	5-0	5.5783 (LW × 1.047)	won by 24 vs Colorado
6 (-)	Kansas AP=17	5-0	5.4829 (LW × 1.066)	won by 5 vs Iowa-St
7 (↑4)	Boise-St AP=5	5-0	5.4273 (LW × 1.160)	Bye
8 (↑7)	Nebraska AP=15	4-1	5.3657 (LW × 1.233)	won by 15 at Missouri
9 (↓7)	Iowa AP=11	6-0	5.1204 (LW × 0.841)	won by 2 vs Michigan
10 (↓3)	USC AP=6	4-1	5.1063 (LW × 1.052)	Bye
11 (↑5)	Cincinnati AP=8	5-0	4.9902 (LW × 1.178)	Bye
12 (↑5)	Oregon AP=13	5-1	4.8997 (LW × 1.199)	won by 14 at UCLA
13 (-)	TCU AP=12	5-0	4.5981 (LW × 1.042)	won by 3 at Air-Force
14 (↑6)	Ohio-St AP=7	5-1	4.5796 (LW × 1.143)	won by 18 vs Wisconsin
15 (↑3)	Notre-Dame AP=25	4-1	4.4521 (LW × 1.092)	Bye
16 (↓7)	Miami-FL AP=9	4-1	4.4323 (LW × 0.939)	won by 32 vs Florida-A&M
17 (↑36)	Tennessee	3-3	4.3208 (LW × 1.682)	won by 26 vs Georgia
18 (↑3)	Oklahoma AP=20	3-2	4.3189 (LW × 1.098)	won by 26 vs Baylor
19 (↓5)	South-Florida AP=21	5-0	4.1892 (LW × 0.950)	Bye
20 (↓10)	Auburn AP=rv(55)	5-1	4.1736 (LW × 0.885)	lost by 21 at Arkansas
21 (↓13)	Stanford AP=rv(1)	4-2	4.0623 (LW × 0.856)	lost by 10 at Oregon-St
22 (↓10)	LSU AP=10	5-1	3.9589 (LW × 0.872)	lost by 10 vs Florida
23 (↑24)	Oregon-St AP=rv(2)	4-2	3.8849 (LW × 1.453)	won by 10 vs Stanford
24 (↓1)	Pittsburgh AP=rv(58)	5-1	3.8294 (LW × 1.017)	won by 3 vs Connecticut
25 (↓3)	Georgia-Tech AP=19	5-1	3.7883 (LW × 0.985)	won by 5 at Florida-St
26 (-)	Washington	3-3	3.7727 (LW × 1.049)	won by 3 vs Arizona
27 (↓8)	Georgia	3-3	3.7654 (LW × 0.936)	lost by 26 at Tennessee
28 (↑15)	Michigan AP=rv(5)	4-2	3.6829 (LW × 1.297)	lost by 2 at Iowa
29 (↓5)	Wisconsin AP=rv(27)	5-1	3.6343 (LW × 0.981)	lost by 18 at Ohio-St
30 (↑7)	West-Virginia AP=rv(46)	4-1	3.5923 (LW × 1.121)	won by 21 at Syracuse
Other Notable Teams:
32 (-)	Arizona AP=rv(5)	3-2	3.4392 (LW × 1.029)	lost by 3 at Washington
33 (↓4)	Missouri AP=rv(25)	4-1	3.4220 (LW × 0.990)	lost by 15 vs Nebraska
34 (↓1)	BYU AP=18	5-1	3.4104 (LW × 1.023)	won by 38 at UNLV
40 (↑9)	Utah AP=24	4-1	3.1843 (LW × 1.199)	won by 7 at Colorado-St
43 (↓3)	Houston AP=23	4-1	3.0552 (LW × 0.989)	won by 7 at Mississippi-St
46 (↓1)	Mississippi AP=rv(28)	3-2	3.0134 (LW × 1.111)	lost by 19 vs Alabama
47 (↓5)	Texas-Tech AP=rv(1)	4-2	3.0087 (LW × 1.032)	won by 52 vs Kansas-St
48 (↓14)	Penn-St AP=14	5-1	2.9574 (LW × 0.906)	won by 49 vs Eastern-Illinois
49 (↑3)	Navy AP=rv(1)	4-2	2.9457 (LW × 1.141)	won by 49 at Rice
51 (↓15)	South-Carolina AP=22	5-1	2.9001 (LW × 0.890)	won by 2 vs Kentucky
54 (↓3)	Idaho AP=rv(1)	5-1	2.7292 (LW × 1.043)	won by 4 at San-Jose-St
69 (↓3)	Cent-Michigan AP=rv(6)	5-1	2.2255 (LW × 1.007)	won by 48 vs East-Michigan

Comments:

• Iowa gets another close home win against a lesser-ranked team, and again pays the price (not as much as if they had lost, of course).

• Florida gets a solid road win over a high-ranked opponent, and they get their highest ranking as a result.

• Should Arkansas be #4? They looked a lot more like a ranked team than Auburn for the part of that game I saw.

• Arizona managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in dramatic fashion Saturday. Arizona lead for most of the second half, and were leading by 12 with 4:15 left in the 4th quarter. But they let Washington drive for a touchdown, and gave up a pick-6 on the first play of the following drive.

• Navy, Idaho and Central Michigan? Really? Seriously, these teams haven't beaten anybody

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, Week 5

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Official rankings will be added after they are published.

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (↑3)	Alabama AP=3	5-0	6.7353 (LW × 1.161)	won by 18 at Kentucky
2 (↓1)	Iowa AP=12	5-0	6.0888 (LW × 0.744)	won by 3 vs Arkansas-St
3 (↑4)	Texas AP=2	4-0	5.3294 (LW × 1.076)	Bye
4 (↓2)	Virginia-Tech AP=5	4-1	5.2249 (LW × 0.789)	won by 8 at Duke
5 (↑7)	Florida AP=1	4-0	5.1535 (LW × 1.184)	Bye
6 (↑8)	Kansas AP=16	4-0	5.1435 (LW × 1.183)	Bye
7 (↑12)	USC AP=7	4-1	4.8534 (LW × 1.307)	won by 27 at California
8 (-)	Stanford AP=rv(50)	4-1	4.7482 (LW × 1.008)	won by 8 vs UCLA
9 (↓4)	Miami-FL AP=11	3-1	4.7205 (LW × 0.904)	won by 1 vs Oklahoma
10 (↑5)	Auburn AP=17	5-0	4.7134 (LW × 1.096)	won by 4 at Tennessee
11 (↓8)	Boise-St AP=6	5-0	4.6788 (LW × 0.777)	won by 18 vs UC-Davis
12 (↑1)	LSU AP=4	5-0	4.5422 (LW × 1.044)	won by 7 at Georgia
13 (↓2)	TCU AP=10	4-0	4.4117 (LW × 1.007)	won by 25 vs SMU
14 (↓8)	South-Florida AP=23	5-0	4.4114 (LW × 0.877)	won by 14 at Syracuse
15 (↑2)	Nebraska AP=21	3-1	4.3527 (LW × 1.140)	Bye
16 (↑7)	Cincinnati AP=8	5-0	4.2363 (LW × 1.163)	won by 24 at Miami-OH
17 (↓8)	Oregon AP=13	4-1	4.0873 (LW × 0.872)	won by 46 vs Washington-St
18 (↑13)	Notre-Dame AP=rv(9)	4-1	4.0768 (LW × 1.299)	won by 7 vs Washington
19 (↑10)	Georgia AP=rv(115)	3-2	4.0209 (LW × 1.255)	lost by 7 vs LSU
20 (↑2)	Ohio-St AP=9	4-1	4.0061 (LW × 1.097)	won by 19 at Indiana
21 (↑4)	Oklahoma AP=19	2-2	3.9338 (LW × 1.139)	lost by 1 at Miami-FL
22 (↓4)	Georgia-Tech AP=22	4-1	3.8478 (LW × 1.014)	won by 11 at Mississippi-St
23 (↑14)	Pittsburgh AP=rv(3)	4-1	3.7639 (LW × 1.266)	won by 25 at Louisville
24 (↑15)	Wisconsin AP=rv(157)	5-0	3.7047 (LW × 1.275)	won by 3 at Minnesota
25 (↓15)	Florida-St	2-3	3.6834 (LW × 0.822)	lost by 7 at Boston-Coll
26 (-)	Washington	2-3	3.5971 (LW × 1.070)	lost by 7 at Notre-Dame
27 (↑1)	Oklahoma-St AP=15	3-1	3.5941 (LW × 1.115)	Bye
28 (↑15)	Boston-Coll AP=rv(12)	4-1	3.5539 (LW × 1.302)	won by 7 vs Florida-St
29 (↑16)	Missouri AP=24	4-0	3.4581 (LW × 1.335)	Bye
30 (↓9)	Clemson	2-3	3.4114 (LW × 0.932)	lost by 3 at Maryland
Other Notable Teams:
32 (↑4)	Arizona AP=rv(2)	3-1	3.3413 (LW × 1.111)	Bye
33 (↓1)	BYU AP=18	4-1	3.3350 (LW × 1.069)	won by 18 vs Utah-St
34 (↓14)	Penn-St AP=14	4-1	3.2634 (LW × 0.887)	won by 18 at Illinois
36 (↓3)	South-Carolina AP=25	4-1	3.2578 (LW × 1.063)	won by 24 vs S-Carolina-St
37 (↑17)	West-Virginia AP=rv(2)	3-1	3.2035 (LW × 1.414)	won by 11 vs Colorado
40 (↓24)	Houston AP=rv(142)	3-1	3.0877 (LW × 0.745)	lost by 17 at UTEP
43 (↓16)	Michigan AP=rv(25)	4-1	2.8390 (LW × 0.873)	lost by 6 at Michigan-St
45 (↑7)	Mississippi AP=20	3-1	2.7119 (LW × 1.182)	won by 16 at Vanderbilt
49 (↓15)	Utah AP=rv(31)	3-1	2.6563 (LW × 0.876)	Bye

Comments:

• Wow, Iowa really pays the price for not putting a stomp-down on 1-3 Arkansas St. on their home field!

• Some weeks, it's really best to be on a Bye.

• How was Cal ever ranked #6? They sure haven't seemed like it the last two weeks. That win over Minnesota (APR #64, not pictured) is starting to seem a long time ago.

• Three 2-3 teams in the top 30 is not something I like to see. But it took overtime for Notre Dame (APR #18) to beat Washington, and they have that win over 4-1 USC.

• APR is giving Clemson the benefit of the doubt for three close road losses to Georgia Tech (APR #22), TCU (APR #13), and Maryland (APR #36). They also have a home win over Boston College (APR #28).

• Florida State looks to have the least impressive record of the three 2-3 teams. They also lost the biggest chunk of power index (17.8%) from last week.

• What happened to Ball State? Did their entire starting line-up graduate? They won 12 games last year. This year, they are 0-5, and APR has them ranked 112 (out of 120).

NCAA: APR's Top 30+, Week 4

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (↑3)	Iowa AP=13	4-0	8.1818 (LW × 1.488)	won by 11 at Penn-St
2 (↑17)	Virginia-Tech AP=6	3-1	6.6229 (LW × 1.867)	won by 24 vs Miami-FL
3 (↑10)	Boise-St AP=5	4-0	6.0206 (LW × 1.546)	won by 35 at Bowling-Green
4 (↑1)	Alabama AP=3	4-0	5.8037 (LW × 1.068)	won by 28 vs Arkansas
5 (↓4)	Miami-FL AP=17	2-1	5.2197 (LW × 0.712)	lost by 24 at Virginia-Tech
6 (↑36)	South-Florida AP=rv(145)	4-0	5.0277 (LW × 2.116)	won by 10 at Florida-St
7 (-)	Texas AP=2	4-0	4.9509 (LW × 1.065)	won by 57 vs UTEP
8 (↑33)	Stanford AP=rv(2)	3-1	4.7096 (LW × 1.972)	won by 20 vs Washington
9 (↑48)	Oregon AP=16	3-1	4.6847 (LW × 2.422)	won by 39 vs California
10 (↓1)	Florida-St	2-2	4.4819 (LW × 1.005)	lost by 10 vs South-Florida
11 (↑12)	TCU AP=11	3-0	4.3796 (LW × 1.370)	won by 4 at Clemson
12 (↑20)	Florida AP=1	4-0	4.3521 (LW × 1.567)	won by 34 at Kentucky
13 (↓2)	LSU AP=4	4-0	4.3502 (LW × 1.067)	won by 4 at Mississippi-St
14 (↓11)	Kansas AP=18	4-0	4.3494 (LW × 0.712)	won by 7 vs Southern-Miss
15 (↓5)	Auburn AP=rv(171)	4-0	4.3003 (LW × 0.990)	won by 24 vs Ball-St
16 (↓14)	Houston AP=12	3-0	4.1448 (LW × 0.623)	won by 1 vs Texas-Tech
17 (↑16)	Nebraska AP=23	3-1	3.8172 (LW × 1.375)	won by 55 vs LA-Lafayette
18 (↓4)	Georgia-Tech AP=25	3-1	3.7947 (LW × 0.982)	won by 17 vs North-Carolina
19 (↑2)	USC AP=7	3-1	3.7138 (LW × 1.113)	won by 21 vs Washington-St
20 (↓2)	Penn-St AP=15	3-1	3.6785 (LW × 1.012)	lost by 11 vs Iowa
21 (↓1)	Clemson	2-2	3.6618 (LW × 1.042)	lost by 4 vs TCU
22 (↓10)	Ohio-St AP=9	3-1	3.6528 (LW × 0.916)	won by 30 vs Illinois
23 (↓6)	Cincinnati AP=10	4-0	3.6440 (LW × 0.997)	won by 8 vs Fresno-St
24 (↓16)	California AP=24	3-1	3.5446 (LW × 0.773)	lost by 39 at Oregon
25 (↑19)	Oklahoma AP=8	2-1	3.4533 (LW × 1.489)	Bye
26 (↓11)	Washington	2-2	3.3632 (LW × 0.881)	lost by 20 at Stanford
27 (↓5)	Michigan AP=22	4-0	3.2502 (LW × 1.008)	won by 3 vs Indiana
28 (↓12)	Oklahoma-St AP=14	3-1	3.2238 (LW × 0.857)	won by 50 vs Grambling-St
29 (↑8)	Georgia AP=18	3-1	3.2037 (LW × 1.289)	won by 3 vs Arizona-St
30 (-)	Purdue	1-3	3.1887 (LW × 1.122)	lost by 3 vs Notre-Dame
31 (↑18)	Notre-Dame AP=rv(7)	3-1	3.1390 (LW × 1.461)	won by 3 at Purdue
32 (↑6)	BYU AP=20	3-1	3.1203 (LW × 1.257)	won by 19 vs Colorado-St
33 (↑20)	South-Carolina AP=rv(154)	3-1	3.0650 (LW × 1.567)	won by 6 vs Mississippi
34 (↑13)	Utah AP=rv(25)	3-1	3.0320 (LW × 1.362)	won by 16 vs Louisville
Other Notable Teams:
39 (↓14)	Wisconsin AP=rv(20)	4-0	2.9065 (LW × 0.971)	won by 8 vs Michigan-St
42 (↓2)	UCLA AP=rv(41)	3-0	2.7364 (LW × 1.132)	Bye
45 (↓18)	Missouri AP=rv(175)	4-0	2.5913 (LW × 0.885)	won by 10 at Nevada
49 (↓15)	Arizona-St AP=rv(4)	2-1	2.4233 (LW × 0.900)	lost by 3 at Georgia
52 (↓26)	Mississippi AP=21	2-1	2.2944 (LW × 0.767)	lost by 6 at South-Carolina
55 (↓24)	North-Carolina AP=rv(2)	3-1	2.2376 (LW × 0.799)	lost by 17 at Georgia-Tech

Comments:

• It's still early, so take these rankings with more than the usual grain of salt.

• Still, the Gators' toughest opponent so far was Tennessee (#53, not listed). APR doesn't take into account last seasons' successes, so they are ranked out of the top 10.