NCAA Final Top 30+

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.

This is using a new margin power function (different from the function used for NFL games). This means that the power values are not comparable to the ones posted last year.

Final AP rankings will be added after they are released.

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (-)	Alabama AP=1	14-0	8.6491 (LW × 1.107)	won by 16 vs Texas
2 (↑1)	Florida AP=3	13-1	7.4805 (LW × 1.168)	won by 27 at Cincinnati
3 (↓1)	Texas AP=2	13-1	6.5225 (LW × 0.878)	lost by 16 at Alabama
4 (↑3)	Virginia-Tech AP=10	10-3	5.9896 (LW × 1.100)	won by 23 at Tennessee
5 (↑3)	TCU AP=6	12-1	5.8100 (LW × 1.078)	lost by 7 vs Boise-St
6 (↑4)	Ohio-St AP=5	11-2	5.6282 (LW × 1.061)	won by 9 at Oregon
7 (↓3)	Texas-Tech AP=21	9-4	5.6127 (LW × 0.973)	won by 10 vs Michigan-St
8 (↓3)	Oklahoma AP=rv(90)	8-5	5.3889 (LW × 0.942)	won by 4 at Stanford
9 (↓3)	Arkansas AP=rv(3)	8-5	5.3337 (LW × 0.968)	won by 3 at East-Carolina
10 (↑2)	Mississippi AP=20	9-4	5.2837 (LW × 1.037)	won by 14 vs Oklahoma-St
11 (↑3)	Boise-St AP=4	14-0	5.2563 (LW × 1.087)	won by 7 at TCU
12 (↑9)	Iowa AP=7	11-2	5.0337 (LW × 1.146)	won by 10 at Georgia-Tech
13 (↑3)	Nebraska AP=14	10-4	5.0107 (LW × 1.067)	won by 33 vs Arizona
14 (↓3)	Penn-St AP=9	11-2	4.9742 (LW × 0.958)	won by 2 at LSU
15 (↓6)	Oregon AP=11	10-3	4.8239 (LW × 0.908)	lost by 9 vs Ohio-St
16 (↑20)	BYU AP=12	11-2	4.7202 (LW × 1.324)	won by 24 vs Oregon-St
17 (↓4)	Georgia-Tech AP=13	11-3	4.6411 (LW × 0.936)	lost by 10 vs Iowa
18 (↓1)	LSU AP=17	9-4	4.5010 (LW × 0.992)	lost by 2 vs Penn-St
19 (↓4)	Cincinnati AP=8	12-1	4.4646 (LW × 0.941)	lost by 27 vs Florida
20 (↑4)	Pittsburgh AP=15	10-3	4.4552 (LW × 1.065)	won by 2 at North-Carolina
21 (↓3)	Miami-FL AP=19	9-4	4.3745 (LW × 0.965)	lost by 6 at Wisconsin
22 (↑9)	Georgia AP=rv(7)	8-5	4.3531 (LW × 1.141)	won by 24 vs Texas-A&M
23 (↓4)	Stanford AP=rv(67)	8-5	4.1467 (LW × 0.930)	lost by 4 vs Oklahoma
24 (↓1)	Auburn AP=rv(8)	8-5	4.1196 (LW × 0.984)	won by 3 vs Northwestern
25 (↑5)	Wisconsin AP=16	10-3	4.0787 (LW × 1.069)	won by 6 vs Miami-FL
26 (↑3)	Clemson AP=24	9-5	4.0627 (LW × 1.026)	won by 8 vs Kentucky
27 (↓2)	West-Virginia AP=25	9-3	3.9846 (LW × 0.961)	lost by 12 at Florida-St
28 (↓8)	Oklahoma-St AP=rv(40)	9-4	3.9287 (LW × 0.884)	lost by 14 at Mississippi
29 (↑16)	Florida-St AP=rv(6)	7-6	3.9260 (LW × 1.249)	won by 12 vs West-Virginia
30 (↓2)	North-Carolina	8-5	3.9133 (LW × 0.973)	lost by 2 vs Pittsburgh
Other notable teams:
33 (↑1)	USC AP=22	9-4	3.8352 (LW × 1.031)	won by 11 vs Boston-Coll
34 (↑14)	Rutgers AP=rv(37)	9-4	3.7716 (LW × 1.239)	won by 21 vs UCF
35 (↑24)	Air-Force AP=rv(3)	8-5	3.7666 (LW × 1.384)	won by 27 vs Houston
36 (↑6)	Connecticut AP=rv(5)	8-5	3.7633 (LW × 1.137)	won by 13 vs South-Carolina
37 (↓15)	Oregon-St AP=rv(89)	8-5	3.6879 (LW × 0.871)	lost by 24 at BYU
38 (↑12)	Utah AP=18	10-3	3.6788 (LW × 1.227)	won by 10 at California
39 (↑24)	Navy AP=rv(85)	10-4	3.6205 (LW × 1.392)	won by 22 at Missouri
41 (↓3)	Cent-Michigan AP=23	11-2	3.4578 (LW × 0.985)	won by 3 at Troy
43 (↓8)	Arizona AP=rv(5)	8-5	3.3083 (LW × 0.897)	lost by 33 at Nebraska
54 (↑12)	Middle-Tenn-St AP=rv(4)	10-3	2.9123 (LW × 1.135)	won by 10 vs Southern-Miss

Pick Standings

Bowl games were picked in this post. Unlike last year, there were only a handful of split picks. But like last year, APR did the worst:

Line:	18-16	(52.9%)
SRS:	17-17	(50.0%)
APR:	16-18	(47.1%)
Unanimous:	13-14	(48.1%)

Comments:

• Once again, a pretty unremarkable record for bowl game picks. At least APR did better than 36% this year.

• One thing that has occurred to me lately is that a neutral-field game is essentially a road game for both teams. And one thing I've really noticed this year is that there are some otherwise good teams that just tank on the road. Something else to look at in the off-season.

• Colt McCoy going out early in the BCS Championship Game has to be a little bit of a bummer for Alabama. Beating Texas when they are playing their backup quarterback just isn't the same. At least they didn't lose to Texas playing their backup quarterback.

• Lowest ranked teams to win a game: Idaho (#91) in the Humanitarian Bowl, and Wyoming (#86) in New Mexico Bowl.

• Biggest Bowl upsets (according to APR): Wyoming defeating Fresno St (New Mexico Bowl) and SMU defeating Nevada (Hawaii Bowl).

• Villanova (14-1 and the FCS champion) received 2 votes in the AP poll, but all FCS teams are removed from APR's rankings as a matter of course, and so are not listed here.

NCAA: Bowl Game Picks 2009

2009 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to the NCAA.
Line values are taken from yahoo.com, and are for comparison purposes only.

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Michigan-St (49) @ Texas-Tech (4)	Texas-Tech ρ=1.9007	Texas-Tech δ=15.61	Texas-Tech -7
Fresno-St (65) @ Wyoming (98)	Fresno-St ρ=1.6771	Fresno-St δ=12.84	Fresno-St -10½
Nevada (39) @ SMU (76)	Nevada ρ=1.5880	Nevada δ=16.08	Nevada -14
Arkansas (6) @ East-Carolina (40)	Arkansas ρ=1.5849	Arkansas δ=13.17	Arkansas -8
Northwestern (58) @ Auburn (23)	Auburn ρ=1.5287	Auburn δ=14.54	Auburn -7½
Navy (63) @ Missouri (32)	Missouri ρ=1.4589	Missouri δ=4.67	Missouri -6
Bowling-Green (70) @ Idaho (91)	Bowling-Green ρ=1.4312	Bowling-Green δ=4.54	Idaho -1
Florida (3) @ Cincinnati (15)	Florida ρ=1.3508	Florida δ=9.93	Florida -10
West-Virginia (25) @ Florida-St (45)	West-Virginia ρ=1.3185	West-Virginia δ=4.37	West-Virginia -3
Virginia-Tech (7) @ Tennessee (26)	Virginia-Tech ρ=1.3179	Virginia-Tech δ=7.54	Virginia-Tech -4½
Boston-Coll (53) @ USC (34)	USC ρ=1.2972	USC δ=5.84	USC -9
Houston (37) @ Air-Force (59)	Houston ρ=1.2938	Houston δ=2.57	Houston -4½
Oklahoma (5) @ Stanford (19)	Oklahoma ρ=1.2834	Oklahoma δ=10.30	Oklahoma -9½
Arizona (35) @ Nebraska (16)	Nebraska ρ=1.2726	Nebraska δ=6.39	Arizona -1
Kentucky (43) @ Clemson (29)	Clemson ρ=1.2216	Clemson δ=6.76	Clemson -7
South-Florida (68) @ Northern-Illinois (81)	South-Florida ρ=1.2057	South-Florida δ=1.05	South-Florida -6½
Miami-FL (18) @ Wisconsin (30)	Miami-FL ρ=1.1880	Miami-FL δ=5.82	Miami-FL -3
Oregon-St (22) @ BYU (36)	Oregon-St ρ=1.1871	Oregon-St δ=1.03	Oregon-St -2
Ohio (55) @ Marshall (72)	Ohio ρ=1.1761	Ohio δ=5.43	Ohio -2
Oklahoma-St (20) @ Mississippi (12)	Mississippi ρ=1.1462	Mississippi δ=0.63	Mississippi -3
Cent-Michigan (38) @ Troy (47)	Cent-Michigan ρ=1.1462	Cent-Michigan δ=12.83	Cent-Michigan -4
Penn-St (11) @ LSU (17)	Penn-St ρ=1.1440	Penn-St δ=1.18	Penn-St -3
Iowa (21) @ Georgia-Tech (13)	Georgia-Tech ρ=1.1299	Georgia-Tech δ=5.65	Georgia-Tech -4
Boise-St (14) @ TCU (8)	TCU ρ=1.1144	TCU δ=6.35	TCU -7
Minnesota (64) @ Iowa-St (71)	Minnesota ρ=1.0758	Minnesota δ=2.42	Minnesota -2½
Texas-A&M (27) @ Georgia (31)	Texas-A&M ρ=1.0737	Georgia δ=3.55	Georgia -7
UCLA (61) @ Temple (56)	Temple ρ=1.0735	UCLA δ=4.57	UCLA -4
Utah (50) @ California (44)	California ρ=1.0590	Utah δ=2.67	California -3
Texas (2) @ Alabama (1)	Alabama ρ=1.0509	Texas δ=1.93	Alabama -5
Pittsburgh (24) @ North-Carolina (28)	Pittsburgh ρ=1.0402	Pittsburgh δ=4.41	Pittsburgh -3
UCF (52) @ Rutgers (48)	Rutgers ρ=1.0394	UCF δ=0.33	Rutgers -2½
Southern-Miss (60) @ Middle-Tenn-St (66)	Southern-Miss ρ=1.0281	Southern-Miss δ=1.89	Southern-Miss -3½
South-Carolina (41) @ Connecticut (42)	South-Carolina ρ=1.0176	South-Carolina δ=0.51	South-Carolina -4½
Ohio-St (10) @ Oregon (9)	Oregon ρ=1.0012	Oregon δ=1.80	Oregon -3½

Comments:

• The number in parentheses after the team names represents APR's end-of-season ranking.

• Only 7 disagreements. Last year, SRS was the big winner on bowl picks. This year I'm using a modified version of APR, which might account for more of the APR/SRS agreement.

• Mississippi State (#33) and Washington (#46) are the highest-ranked teams not listed above, but neither are bowl-eligible.

• Highest ranked eligible teams not invited to a bowl: Notre Dame (#51) and Kansas State (#54).

• Lowest ranked teams invited to a bowl: Idaho (#91) and Wyoming (#98).

NCAA: Final Top 30+

2008 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of SRS.
Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to NCAA.

SRS absolutely owned the Bowl game picks (results below). Thus, I present the SRS-based Top 30+:

Rank	Team	W-L	Power Index	This week
1 (↑1)	Florida AP=1	13-1	38.7582 (LW + 0.970)	won by 10 at Oklahoma
2 (↓1)	Oklahoma AP=5	12-2	36.6529 (LW - 1.603)	lost by 10 vs Florida
3 (↑1)	USC AP=3	12-1	34.1979 (LW + 0.718)	won by 14 vs Penn-St
4 (↓1)	Texas AP=4	12-1	32.0386 (LW - 1.746)	won by 3 vs Ohio-St
5 (-)	Penn-St AP=8	11-2	28.3959 (LW - 1.589)	lost by 14 at USC
6 (↑1)	TCU AP=7	11-2	22.5440 (LW - 0.508)	won by 1 vs Boise-St
7 (↓1)	Texas-Tech AP=12	11-2	22.2056 (LW - 2.582)	lost by 13 vs Mississippi
8 (-)	Missouri AP=19	10-4	21.0858 (LW - 1.779)	won by 7 at Northwestern
9 (-)	Ohio-St AP=9	10-3	20.5819 (LW - 0.103)	lost by 3 at Texas
10 (-)	Alabama AP=6	12-2	20.0269 (LW - 0.656)	lost by 14 vs Utah
11 (↑2)	Utah AP=2	13-0	19.6823 (LW + 0.805)	won by 14 at Alabama
12 (-)	Boise-St AP=11	12-1	19.0201 (LW - 0.345)	lost by 1 at TCU
13 (↑3)	Mississippi AP=14	9-4	18.8638 (LW + 1.731)	won by 13 at Texas-Tech
14 (↑1)	Oregon AP=10	10-3	18.6227 (LW + 0.706)	won by 11 vs Oklahoma-St
15 (↓1)	Iowa AP=20	9-4	18.2946 (LW - 0.049)	won by 21 vs South-Carolina
16 (↓5)	Oklahoma-St AP=16	9-4	17.7462 (LW - 1.972)	lost by 11 at Oregon
17 (-)	California AP=rv(128)	9-4	16.6901 (LW - 0.217)	won by 7 vs Miami-FL
18 (-)	Arizona AP=rv(4)	8-5	15.8185 (LW + 0.261)	won by 10 vs BYU
19 (↑2)	Florida-St AP=21	9-4	14.6236 (LW + 1.571)	won by 29 vs Wisconsin
20 (↓1)	Oregon-St AP=18	9-4	14.4389 (LW - 0.223)	won by 3 at Pittsburgh
21 (↓1)	Georgia AP=13	10-3	13.6219 (LW + 0.493)	won by 12 at Michigan-St
22 (-)	Nebraska AP=rv(64)	9-4	12.4898 (LW - 0.522)	won by 5 vs Clemson
23 (-)	North-Carolina	8-5	11.7904 (LW - 0.580)	lost by 1 vs West-Virginia
24 (↑9)	Tulsa AP=rv(61)	11-3	11.1922 (LW + 1.935)	won by 32 at Ball-St
25 (↓1)	Kansas AP=rv(2)	8-5	11.0389 (LW + 0.021)	won by 21 at Minnesota
26 (↑1)	Pittsburgh AP=rv(106)	9-4	10.3081 (LW - 0.162)	lost by 3 vs Oregon-St
27 (↓2)	Clemson	7-6	10.2854 (LW - 0.454)	lost by 5 at Nebraska
28 (↓2)	BYU AP=25	10-3	9.9352 (LW - 0.580)	lost by 10 at Arizona
29 (-)	Rutgers AP=rv(11)	8-5	9.5713 (LW - 0.334)	won by 6 vs NC-State
30 (↓2)	Boston-Coll AP=rv(11)	9-5	9.4115 (LW - 0.515)	lost by 2 at Vanderbilt
31 (↑3)	Wake-Forest	8-5	9.1329 (LW + 0.535)	won by 10 at Navy
32 (↑11)	LSU AP=rv(95)	8-5	8.9902 (LW + 3.144)	won by 35 at Georgia-Tech
33 (↑2)	Virginia-Tech AP=15	10-4	8.8271 (LW + 0.424)	won by 13 at Cincinnati
34 (↓2)	Michigan-St AP=24	9-4	8.4315 (LW - 1.164)	lost by 12 vs Georgia
35 (↑2)	West-Virginia AP=23	9-4	7.8261 (LW + 0.300)	won by 1 at North-Carolina
36 (-)	South-Carolina	7-6	7.6455 (LW - 0.375)	lost by 21 at Iowa
37 (↑1)	Miami-FL	7-6	7.2325 (LW - 0.003)	lost by 7 at California
38 (↓8)	Ball-St AP=rv(13)	12-2	6.6882 (LW - 3.158)	lost by 32 vs Tulsa
39 (↓8)	Georgia-Tech AP=22	9-4	6.5934 (LW - 3.075)	lost by 35 vs LSU
40 (↑6)	Connecticut	8-5	6.3192 (LW + 0.836)	won by 18 vs Buffalo
Other teams of note:
43 (↑1)	Northwestern AP=rv(53)	9-4	5.6839 (LW + 0.027)	lost by 7 vs Missouri
64 (↓8)	Rice AP=rv(8)	9-4	0.9500 (LW - 2.245)	lost by 24 at W-Michigan

Final BCS AP rankings will be added after they are released. (No post-bowl-games BCS rankings? How very odd.)

Pick Standings

Bowl games were picked in this post.

SRS:	22-12	(64.7%)
Line:	17-17	(50.0%)
APR:	12-22	(35.3%)

SRS' record isn't that impressive by regular-season standards. But for some reason, the Line and especially APR just tanked.

Winning Teams Unanimously Picked To Lose

• Florida Atlantic (Motor City Bowl)
• Louisiana Tech (Independence Bowl)
• Western Michigan (Texas Bowl)
• Vanderbilt (Music City Bowl)
• LSU (Chick-fil-A Bowl)
• Mississippi (Cotton Bowl)
• Tulsa (GMAC Bowl)

Comments:

• The usual suspects (Florida, Oklahoma, USC, Texas, and Penn State) are still at the top, but there's a lot of differences as you get lower down.

• APR was only right twice picking against SRS (Oregon in the Holiday Bowl and Utah in the Sugar Bowl).

• Clearly, APR needs to be adjusted for the NCAA.

• Lowest ranked teams (according to SRS) to win: Colorado-St (#78), Louisiana-Tech (#89), and Florida-Atlantic (#96).

• AP ranks Utah #2? Do they really want to give an unbeaten season that much weight?

NCAA: APR Picks the Bowl Games!

2008 Navigation Links

Read this for a description of APR.
Read this for some disclaimers about applying APR to NCAA.
Line values are taken from yahoo.com, and are for comparison purposes only.

Picks for the Bowl Games.

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Memphis (92) @ South-Florida (48)	South-Florida ρ=1.1574	South-Florida δ=9.64	South-Florida -12½
Boston-Coll (23) @ Vanderbilt (64)	Boston-Coll ρ=1.1555	Boston-Coll δ=4.91	Boston-Coll -4
LSU (59) @ Georgia-Tech (26)	Georgia-Tech ρ=1.1295	Georgia-Tech δ=3.82	Georgia-Tech -4
Kentucky (81) @ East-Carolina (45)	East-Carolina ρ=1.1290	Kentucky δ=0.66	East-Carolina -2
Tulsa (55) @ Ball-St (19)	Ball-St ρ=1.1240	Ball-St δ=0.59	Ball-St -3
Wisconsin (42) @ Florida-St (17)	Florida-St ρ=1.0999	Florida-St δ=5.93	Florida-St -5
South-Carolina (41) @ Iowa (16)	Iowa ρ=1.0953	Iowa δ=10.32	Iowa -3½
Oregon-St (34) @ Pittsburgh (12)	Pittsburgh ρ=1.0946	Oregon-St δ=4.19	Oregon-St -3
NC-State (33) @ Rutgers (13)	Rutgers ρ=1.0758	Rutgers δ=6.86	NC-State -7
Florida-Atlantic (82) @ Cent-Michigan (61)	Cent-Michigan ρ=1.0753	Cent-Michigan δ=6.87	Cent-Michigan -7
Mississippi (15) @ Texas-Tech (8)	Texas-Tech ρ=1.0687	Texas-Tech δ=7.65	Texas-Tech -5½
Kansas (49) @ Minnesota (68)	Kansas ρ=1.0679	Kansas δ=10.81	Kansas -10
Ohio-St (7) @ Texas (3)	Texas ρ=1.0610	Texas δ=13.10	Texas -9½
BYU (30) @ Arizona (46)	BYU ρ=1.0601	Arizona δ=5.04	Arizona -3
Boise-St (6) @ TCU (11)	Boise-St ρ=1.0397	TCU δ=3.69	TCU -2½
Oklahoma-St (28) @ Oregon (18)	Oregon ρ=1.0374	Oklahoma-St δ=1.80	Oklahoma-St -4
Rice (38) @ W-Michigan (52)	Rice ρ=1.0349	Rice δ=2.24	Rice -3
Penn-St (4) @ USC (5)	Penn-St ρ=1.0336	USC δ=3.50	USC -10
Buffalo (36) @ Connecticut (44)	Buffalo ρ=1.0280	Connecticut δ=2.88	Connecticut -4½
Clemson (25) @ Nebraska (31)	Clemson ρ=1.0273	Nebraska δ=2.27	Clemson -2½
Missouri (29) @ Northwestern (35)	Missouri ρ=1.0259	Missouri δ=17.21	Missouri -13
Houston (57) @ Air-Force (54)	Air-Force ρ=1.0255	Air-Force δ=0.14	Houston -3
Wake-Forest (37) @ Navy (32)	Navy ρ=1.0234	Wake-Forest δ=2.39	Wake-Forest -3
Virginia-Tech (22) @ Cincinnati (14)	Cincinnati ρ=1.0225	Virginia-Tech δ=2.06	Cincinnati -1½
Hawaii (65) @ Notre-Dame (58)	Notre-Dame ρ=1.0219	Notre-Dame δ=9.28	Hawaii -1½
Southern-Miss (43) @ Troy (53)	Southern-Miss ρ=1.0200	Southern-Miss δ=0.11	Troy -4½
Georgia (27) @ Michigan-St (24)	Michigan-St ρ=1.0188	Georgia δ=3.53	Georgia -7½
Colorado-St (69) @ Fresno-St (63)	Fresno-St ρ=1.0175	Colorado-St δ=2.42	Fresno-St -3
Utah (9) @ Alabama (10)	Utah ρ=1.0115	Alabama δ=1.81	Alabama -10½
Miami-FL (40) @ California (39)	California ρ=1.0061	California δ=9.67	California -7
Florida (2) @ Oklahoma (1)	Oklahoma ρ=1.0051	Oklahoma δ=0.47	Florida -3
Maryland (51) @ Nevada (50)	Nevada ρ=1.0048	Maryland δ=0.80	Nevada -1½
Northern-Illinois (70) @ Louisiana-Tech (72)	Northern-Illinois ρ=1.0045	Northern-Illinois δ=7.34	Northern-Illinois -1½
West-Virginia (21) @ North-Carolina (20)	North-Carolina ρ=1.0016	North-Carolina δ=4.84	West Virginia -1½

Comments:

• APR and SRS have another assumption not detailed in the disclaimer above: they assume that games are played without a significant game from one to the next. In the case of Penn State, it will be nearly 6 weeks since their regular season closer before they play the Rose Bowl.

• The number in parentheses after the team names represents APR's end-of-season ranking.

• Highest-ranked team not invited to a bowl: #47 Bowling Green.

• Lowest-ranked team invited to a bowl: #92 Memphis.

• Unlike ARP, SRS does not truncate win margins, which appears to give it an advantage picking NCAA games, where wide-margin wins are much more common than in the NFL.