NFL Championship Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Seahawks	1.1173 (LW × 1.0115)	14-4	Won by 6 vs Packers
2 (-)	Patriots	1.0799 (LW × 1.0134)	14-4	Won by 38 vs Colts
3 (-)	Packers	1.0223 (LW × 1.0121)	13-5	Lost by 6 @ Seahawks
4 (↑1)	Cowboys	0.9860 (LW × 0.9987)	13-5	Bye
5 (↑1)	Bills	0.9847 (LW × 1.0035)	9-7	Bye
6 (↓2)	Colts	0.9682 (LW × 0.9782)	13-6	Lost by 38 @ Patriots
7 (-)	Broncos	0.9681 (LW × 0.9989)	12-5	Bye
8 (-)	Ravens	0.9641 (LW × 0.9988)	11-7	Bye
9 (-)	Steelers	0.9600 (LW × 0.9971)	11-6	Bye
10 (-)	Chiefs	0.9571 (LW × 1.0020)	9-7	Bye
11 (-)	Eagles	0.9384 (LW × 1.0005)	10-6	Bye
12 (-)	Lions	0.9156 (LW × 1.0039)	11-6	Bye
13 (-)	Texans	0.9049 (LW × 0.9933)	9-7	Bye
14 (-)	Bengals	0.8996 (LW × 0.9947)	10-6-1	Bye
15 (-)	Cardinals	0.8988 (LW × 1.0035)	11-6	Bye
16 (-)	Dolphins	0.8854 (LW × 1.0026)	8-8	Bye
17 (-)	Rams	0.8759 (LW × 1.0020)	6-10	Bye
18 (-)	Panthers	0.8721 (LW × 1.0022)	8-9-1	Bye
19 (-)	Chargers	0.8707 (LW × 1.0021)	9-7	Bye
20 (-)	Vikings	0.8596 (LW × 1.0031)	7-9	Bye
21 (-)	Jets	0.8483 (LW × 1.0026)	4-12	Bye
22 (-)	Falcons	0.8458 (LW × 1.0015)	6-10	Bye
23 (-)	49ers	0.8436 (LW × 1.0027)	8-8	Bye
24 (-)	Giants	0.8353 (LW × 0.9980)	6-10	Bye
25 (-)	Saints	0.8177 (LW × 1.0006)	7-9	Bye
26 (-)	Browns	0.8121 (LW × 0.9961)	7-9	Bye
27 (-)	Raiders	0.8093 (LW × 1.0017)	3-13	Bye
28 (-)	Bears	0.7756 (LW × 1.0033)	5-11	Bye
29 (-)	Jaguars	0.7605 (LW × 0.9941)	3-13	Bye
30 (-)	Buccaneers	0.7485 (LW × 1.0012)	2-14	Bye
31 (-)	Washington	0.7405 (LW × 0.9977)	4-12	Bye
32 (-)	Titans	0.6826 (LW × 0.9946)	2-14	Bye

Comments:

• As I indicated in the game picks I wasn't expecting the Packers to win this. But perhaps except for a full-on blow out, I'm not sure they could've lost in a more disappointing manner.

• The top 3 remain pretty much the same, the Colts drop out of the top 5 after getting blown out in their game. At least moderately surprisingly, there's no shuffling around in the lower ranks. Usually there's at least a couple teams close enough to switch ranks based on secondary effects.

• Tom Brady will (presumably) start a record sixth Super Bowl (breaking the tie he was in with John Elway, who has five).

• The Seahawks become the first team since the 2003-2004 Patriots to qualify for the Super Bowl in back-to-back seasons.

• A number of teams have back-to-pack wins in the Super Bowl, there are also three that have lost on their return trip: the Cowboys in 1978, the Raiders in 1983, and the Packers in 1997. I'll have more to say in the Super Bowl game picks post, but I think the Seahawks have a chance be the fourth team in that win-loss group.

NFL Championship Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Packers @ Seahawks	Seahawks ρ=1.0935	Seahawks δ=1.0	Seahawks -7
Colts @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.0766	Patriots δ=4.8	Patriots -6½

Comments:

• Like last week, everybody likes the home teams.

• Since some early struggles and a 3-3 start, the Seahawks have finished on a very impressive 9-1 streak. That streak seems a bit less impressive when you notice that 7 of those games were facing offenses in the bottom half of the league (ranked 19th or lower) in points scored. They also played 4 of those games facing teams starting their second or third string quarterbacks (or fourth string, depending on where you want to put Ryan Lindley).

  I feel like the Seahawks are vulnerable to a high scoring team. Their record bears this out, they are 1-4 when their opponent scores 24+ points. On paper, the Packers look look like a team that can take advantage of this weakness.

  The biggest problem with this plan is Aaron Rodgers is hurt, and will almost certainly still be limited for Sunday. Beyond that, the Packers offense has also shown signs of struggling against good defenses, particularly on the road. Two of those games (@ Seahawks and @ Lions) were early in the season, but the third (@ Bills) was just a few weeks ago.

  Another problem for the Packers is their run defense. They've done a lot better since the bye week, but Sunday will be facing the best QB-RB rushing duo in the league. The Cowboys ran for 145 yards last week, and it seems almost certain the Seahawks will be able to surpass that. Maybe the Packers have a chance if they can score early and often, and keep it a game where the Seahawks will feel like they need to pass a lot to stay in it. But I think this is gonna be closer to the season opener, where the Packers kept it close for a while, but the Seahawks pull away in the second half.

• Last week, Andrew Luck and the Colts took a big first step in shaking off their "can't win on the road against good teams" reputation, holding the Broncos to a near-season low of just 13 points, and scoring 24 on a defense that had held opponents to 21 or lower in 10 games. If the Colts can go into Foxborough and beat the Patriots, it will represent an extrordinary sweep of two of the highest regarded quarterbacks in the league, going back 15 years, and go along way to justifying Luck's place at that same level.

  That said, I think this is going to be the end of the line for this year's Colts. They are 0-5 when allowing more than 28 points this season, and the Patriots have reached that mark 9 times this season (including last week's victory over the Ravens). The Patriots are also 11-0 when they score at least 23 points (again counting last week). Unless Tom Brady is hurt too, I don't think the Colts' defense has what it takes to slow down the Patriots enough to keep them in this game.

NFL Divisional Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Ravens @ Patriots (SRS, APR, Line)

The Ravens' offense certainly did their part in this game, putting up 31 points on the Patriots. But the Ravens' defense allowed the Patriots five sustained drives (the shortest was 67 yards), all ending with touchdowns.

Joe Flacco may actually be maturing into a better quarterback than he was in the first years of his career, but when it takes 36 points to win a game, even the best quarterbacks can be in a toss-up situation.

Panthers @ Seahawks (APR, SRS, Line)

The Seahawks won this pretty easily, as they were widely expected to. Maybe the most surprising thing about this game is that the Panthers kept it within a single score into the 4th quarter, and if Cam Newton had played a better game, the Panthers might have had a chance for an upset.

Cowboys @ Packers (APR, SRS, Line)

After their initial touchdown drive, the Packers really seemed to struggle in this game, producing drives that ended in a lost fumble, two punts, and two field goals. I really thought this game was all but over when the Cowboys went up 21-13 late in the 3rd quarter.

But after that, the Packers' offense finally got on a roll, posting a couple of long touchdown drives, and a final drive to finish off the final 4:06 of game clock.

The Cowboys seemed to pursue a ball control strategy similar to what the Bills did in their win over the Packers in week 15. The problem with this strategy is it requires a defense that can shut the Packers offense down for an entire game, and (as the Cowboys found out) blows up if you can't.

It should also be noted that the Dez Bryant catch reversal controversy obscured a rather unfortunate play call by the Cowboys. That play came on 4th and 2. The Cowboys elected to throw what has to be a pretty low percentage deep ball 30 yards down field. But why do that when they could've handed off to DeMarco Murray? Murray had been shredding the Packers' defense all game, and would've almost certainly resulted in a conversion and a fresh set of downs.

Colts @ Broncos (APR, SRS, Line)

Just an ugly day for the Broncos' passing offense. One of the lowest completion rates (57%) and yards per attempt (4.58) since Manning went to Denver.

The Broncos' defense didn't have a good day either, giving up several long drives, and largely letting the Colts offense control the tempo of the game. The Broncos just didn't look anything like the team that won the AFC's second seed.

Added: It's now being reported that Peyton Manning was playing with a torn quad, which would explain a lot about how this game played out.

Totals

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	3	-	1			5	-	3		62.5%
SRS	3	-	1			6	-	2		75%
Line	3	-	1			6	-	2		75%

NFL Divisional Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Seahawks	1.1046 (LW × 1.0268)	13-4	Won by 14 vs Panthers
2 (-)	Patriots	1.0656 (LW × 0.9942)	13-4	Won by 4 vs Ravens
3 (↑1)	Packers	1.0101 (LW × 1.0167)	13-4	Won by 5 vs Cowboys
4 (↑5)	Colts	0.9898 (LW × 1.0476)	13-5	Won by 11 @ Broncos
5 (↑1)	Cowboys	0.9873 (LW × 1.0295)	13-5	Lost by 5 @ Packers
6 (↓1)	Bills	0.9813 (LW × 0.9981)	9-7	Bye
7 (↓4)	Broncos	0.9692 (LW × 0.9685)	12-5	Lost by 11 vs Colts
8 (↑2)	Ravens	0.9652 (LW × 1.0242)	11-7	Lost by 4 @ Patriots
9 (↓1)	Steelers	0.9628 (LW × 1.0133)	11-6	Bye
10 (↓3)	Chiefs	0.9552 (LW × 0.9994)	9-7	Bye
11 (-)	Eagles	0.9379 (LW × 1.0200)	10-6	Bye
12 (-)	Lions	0.9121 (LW × 1.0098)	11-6	Bye
13 (↑1)	Texans	0.9111 (LW × 1.0204)	9-7	Bye
14 (↓1)	Bengals	0.9043 (LW × 1.0126)	10-6-1	Bye
15 (-)	Cardinals	0.8956 (LW × 1.0129)	11-6	Bye
16 (-)	Dolphins	0.8831 (LW × 1.0000)	8-8	Bye
17 (↑1)	Rams	0.8741 (LW × 1.0059)	6-10	Bye
18 (↑2)	Panthers	0.8702 (LW × 1.0252)	8-9-1	Lost by 14 @ Seahawks
19 (↓2)	Chargers	0.8689 (LW × 0.9962)	9-7	Bye
20 (↓1)	Vikings	0.8569 (LW × 1.0090)	7-9	Bye
21 (-)	Jets	0.8462 (LW × 1.0006)	4-12	Bye
22 (↑1)	Falcons	0.8446 (LW × 1.0149)	6-10	Bye
23 (↓1)	49ers	0.8413 (LW × 1.0090)	8-8	Bye
24 (-)	Giants	0.8369 (LW × 1.0188)	6-10	Bye
25 (↑1)	Saints	0.8172 (LW × 1.0143)	7-9	Bye
26 (↑1)	Browns	0.8153 (LW × 1.0162)	7-9	Bye
27 (↓2)	Raiders	0.8079 (LW × 0.9961)	3-13	Bye
28 (-)	Bears	0.7731 (LW × 1.0104)	5-11	Bye
29 (-)	Jaguars	0.7650 (LW × 1.0197)	3-13	Bye
30 (-)	Buccaneers	0.7476 (LW × 1.0134)	2-14	Bye
31 (-)	Washington	0.7422 (LW × 1.0183)	4-12	Bye
32 (-)	Titans	0.6863 (LW × 1.0186)	2-14	Bye

Comments:

• Congratulations to the Seahawks, who become the first defending Super Bowl champion to win a playoff game the following season since the Patriots did it in 2005.

• If the Broncos had also won, it would've been the first time since 2004 that all four home teams had won in the Divisional round, and the first time since 1997 that both Super Bowl teams won a playoff game the following season. As it is, these will have to wait for another season.

• So a couple of things about that overturned catch at the end of the Cowboys-Packers game:

  1. I'm not a big fan of the going-to-the-ground rule, but

  2. By the going-to-the-ground rule, that was not a catch. If you watch the replay, Bryant bobbles the ball when he hits the ground (before rolling over into the endzone). It's a near-textbook example of a non-catch according to this rule.

• Nice to see the final four teams in the top four of the rankings. I think I'd probably rank them in that order, too.

NFL Divisional Game Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Panthers @ Seahawks	Seahawks ρ=1.2672	Seahawks δ=11.5	Seahawks -10½
Ravens @ Patriots	Patriots ρ=1.1373	Patriots δ=5.7	Patriots -7
Colts @ Broncos	Broncos ρ=1.0592	Broncos δ=4.3	Broncos -7
Cowboys @ Packers	Packers* ρ=1.0360	Packers δ=3.0	Packers -6½

Comments:

• The Panthers played the Seahawks close in the regular season, but that was early on, and played in Charlotte. The Panthers are gonna have to play a lot better than they did last week, or this game is going to be over by halftime.

  I actually think the Seahawks are maybe not as good as their record indicates, and shouldn't be such a lock to repeat in the Super Bowl (I'll have more to say about that next week). But unless Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, and half their defense can't play Saturday, I just don't see the Panthers coming away with the upset.

• The Ravens have only beat the Patriots three times, but two of those victories have come in the playoffs. If they're going to get a fourth win this weekend, I think the Ravens will have to play better defense than they did against the Steelers.

  One factor that may play into this is the status of Julian Edelman, who is currently listed as questionable probable for the game. If he can't play, or is limited, the Ravens will be able to focus a lot more on Rob Gronkowsky, the Pats' other big threat on offense.

• The Colts and Broncos will play a rematch of their week 1 meeting this week. As I've mentioned before, the Colts have not played well on the road against good teams, and unless the Broncos just faceplant this game, the Colts will have another Divisional round exit in the playoffs.

• Unless you've been living under a rock this week, you already know Cowboys @ Packers is the first time these teams have met in the playoffs at Lambeau since the Ice Bowl game. Besides all the other differences between then and now, Sunday's weather is expected to feature a relatively warm high of 20F.

  As for the game, well, I learned from the 2011 playoffs not to take anything for granted. But the Cowboys played a relatively sloppy game last week, with a slow start, some noticeably errant throws by Romo, and a lot of yards given up on defense.

  Assuming Aaron Rodgers stays healthy and plays the whole game, and the offense gets on a roll, the Cowboys will have a very tough time of it.

NFL Wild Card Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Panthers (Line)

What an awful performance by Ryan Lindley. I don't think I've seen a worse performance by a quarterback in the playoffs. Even Joe Webb a couple years ago had a better game.

The Panthers played like you'd expect a 7-9-1 team to play: some ugly turnovers, a lot of drives that ended without a score, and a general failure to put away a weak opponent until late in the game.

Ravens (SRS) @ Steelers (APR, Line)

I wrote in the game picks that the Ravens could make a run if their defense got on a roll. They certainly took the first step in this game, holding the Steelers to just three field goals and a touchdown, and forcing three turnovers at the end of the game.

Steelers put up a lot of yards on the Ravens' defense, but too many of their drives ended in field goals, punts, and turnovers. They were playing catch up on the score board for most of the game, and the Ravens were able to pull away in the second half.

Bengals @ Colts (APR, SRS, Line)

The least surprising of this week's games. Without their two biggest playmakers on offense (AJ Green and Jermain Gresham) the Bengals were in deep trouble when the game started. Perhaps the biggest surprise was that they kept the game close through halftime.

Lions @ Cowboys (APR, SRS, Line)

That was probably the ugliest job of officiating since the Fail Mary game. The Lions really got a bad deal there. But they also played a pretty poor second half, managing just one field goal from 6 possessions, and leaving the door open for a bad call to decide the game for them. (It should also be noted a DPI call would not have won the game for them, it just would've helped keep their drive going.)

The Cowboys, for their part, didn't look great either. They only managed to score 14 points through three quarters, Romo was sacked 6 times, and a lot of his passes looked poorly thrown and off target. The offense may get most of the attention, but the defense holding the Lions to just a field goal in the second half was a key factor in giving them the chance to win this game.

Totals

	This Week					This Season				%
APR	2	-	2			2	-	2		50%
SRS	3	-	1			3	-	1		75%
Line	3	-	1			3	-	1		75%

NFL Wildcard Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (-)	Seahawks	1.0757 (LW × 0.9876)	12-4	Bye
2 (-)	Patriots	1.0718 (LW × 1.0014)	12-4	Bye
3 (-)	Broncos	1.0007 (LW × 0.9926)	12-4	Bye
4 (-)	Packers	0.9935 (LW × 1.0047)	12-4	Bye
5 (-)	Bills	0.9831 (LW × 0.9988)	9-7	Bye
6 (↑2)	Cowboys	0.9590 (LW × 1.0119)	13-4	Won by 4 vs Lions
7 (-)	Chiefs	0.9558 (LW × 0.9868)	9-7	Bye
8 (↓2)	Steelers	0.9502 (LW × 0.9705)	11-6	Lost by 13 vs Ravens
9 (↑1)	Colts	0.9448 (LW × 1.0249)	12-5	Won by 16 vs Bengals
10 (↑3)	Ravens	0.9424 (LW × 1.0359)	11-6	Won by 13 @ Steelers
11 (-)	Eagles	0.9195 (LW × 1.0043)	10-6	Bye
12 (↑2)	Lions	0.9032 (LW × 0.9989)	11-6	Lost by 4 @ Cowboys
13 (↓1)	Bengals	0.8931 (LW × 0.9801)	10-6-1	Lost by 16 @ Colts
14 (↑1)	Texans	0.8929 (LW × 1.0077)	9-7	Bye
15 (↓6)	Cardinals	0.8843 (LW × 0.9566)	11-6	Lost by 11 @ Panthers
16 (↑1)	Dolphins	0.8831 (LW × 1.0034)	8-8	Bye
17 (↑1)	Chargers	0.8723 (LW × 0.9973)	9-7	Bye
18 (↓2)	Rams	0.8690 (LW × 0.9872)	6-10	Bye
19 (↑1)	Vikings	0.8492 (LW × 1.0062)	7-9	Bye
20 (↑5)	Panthers	0.8489 (LW × 1.0406)	8-8-1	Won by 11 vs Cardinals
21 (↓2)	Jets	0.8456 (LW × 0.9977)	4-12	Bye
22 (↓1)	49ers	0.8338 (LW × 0.9904)	8-8	Bye
23 (↓1)	Falcons	0.8322 (LW × 1.0042)	6-10	Bye
24 (↓1)	Giants	0.8215 (LW × 1.0024)	6-10	Bye
25 (↓1)	Raiders	0.8110 (LW × 0.9913)	3-13	Bye
26 (-)	Saints	0.8057 (LW × 1.0064)	7-9	Bye
27 (-)	Browns	0.8023 (LW × 1.0078)	7-9	Bye
28 (-)	Bears	0.7651 (LW × 1.0048)	5-11	Bye
29 (-)	Jaguars	0.7503 (LW × 1.0086)	3-13	Bye
30 (-)	Buccaneers	0.7377 (LW × 1.0059)	2-14	Bye
31 (-)	Washington	0.7289 (LW × 1.0029)	4-12	Bye
32 (-)	Titans	0.6738 (LW × 1.0059)	2-14	Bye

Comments:

• And both the Bengals' and Lions' winless streak in the playoffs will extend another year. The Lions at least showed some signs of life in their game.

• Some shuffling around in the rankings, but the top 5 remain the same. And while the streak has been interrupted, the APR tradition of the lowest ranked playoff team winning a game in the playoffs continues as the Panthers advance.

• I'm not sure there's anybody in the league the Cardinals could beat with Ryan Lindley as their quarterback. Still, I suppose those 11 wins count for something. If Carson Palmer comes back okay, and stays healthy for the whole season, they should have a chance to do something next year.

• Meanwhile, one of the Cardinals' first orders of business should be to cut Ryan Lindley. I think he's at the "what you see is what you get" point in his career, which mean he's not obviously better than some random guy pulled out of the stands.