NFL Week 9 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Bears @ Titans	Bears ρ=1.3163	Bears* δ=21.8	Bears -3½
Bills @ Texans	Texans ρ=1.2983	Texans δ=21.7	Texans -10
Chiefs @ Chargers	Chargers ρ=1.2250	Chargers δ=12.0	Chargers -8
Broncos @ Bengals	Broncos ρ=1.1997	Broncos* δ=15.8	Broncos -3½
Lions @ Jaguars	Lions ρ=1.1681	Lions* δ=10.5	Lions -3½
Cardinals @ Packers	Packers ρ=1.1662	Packers δ=6.8	Packers -11
Cowboys @ Falcons	Falcons ρ=1.1653	Falcons δ=5.4	Falcons -4
Ravens @ Browns	Ravens* ρ=1.1628	Ravens* δ=7.9	Ravens -3½
Dolphins @ Colts	Dolphins ρ=1.1248	Dolphins* δ=9.4	Dolphins -1½
Steelers @ Giants	Giants ρ=1.0793	Giants δ=9.7	Giants -3
Vikings @ Seahawks	Seahawks ρ=1.0688	Seahawks δ=3.9	Seahawks -5
Buccaneers @ Raiders	Buccaneers ρ=1.0547	Buccaneers* δ=11.4	Raiders -1
Eagles @ Saints	Eagles ρ=1.0458	Eagles* δ=0.0	Saints -3
Panthers @ Redskins	Redskins* ρ=1.0177	Redskins δ=0.2	Redskins -3

Bye: Patriots, 49ers, Jets, Rams

Comments:

• Only two split picks this week. All will rise and fall together.

• After the Packers struggled to put away the Jaguars last week, I'm not sure how confident I am that they can cover an 11-point line. On the other hand, John Skelton has played really poorly so far, and a couple touchdowns may be all it takes for the Packers to cover.

• Should the Ravens be on upset alert? They're on the road to a bad opponent, and the Browns took them to the wire when they played in Baltimore week 4.

• In spite of a bunch of tough opponents left on their schedule, the Dolphins could make it to 9 wins this year, if they keep playing at the level they've been at so far. But to do that, they will need to win some games on the road, especially against lesser opponents like the Colts.

• The Buccaneers have been in all of their games this year, including a close loss to the Giants. They might be able to beat the Raiders in Tampa, but flying cross-country to beat the Raiders in Oakland is a tall order for a team that has struggled to close out games all season long.

• In many of their games, the Saints' offense has been nearly as good as their defense has been bad. I think I have to go with the Line on this one—the Eagles haven't scored more than 24 points all season, and I don't think they can keep up in a shoot-out with the Saints.

NFL Week 8 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 8 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Colts (+10)

The Colts are clearly much, much better than they were last year. But they also have two close wins over a couple very bad teams (Browns, Titans), and a couple losses to two other bad teams (Jaguars, Jets). Winning record or not, that's not the resume of a team that belongs in the top half of the power rankings.

On the bubble

Cardinals (+6)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Panthers (-10)

The Panthers have had a lot of close losses (which long time readers will know is something APR likes more than it should). They were ahead late over both the Falcons and Bears. But the Panthers' uncanny ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory means they still only have a single win.

On the bubble

Jets (-6)

NFL Week 8 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (6-2)

Right:

Giants @ Cowboys
Patriots "@" Rams (London)
49ers @ Cardinals
Jaguars @ Packers
Panthers @ Bears
Saints @ Broncos

Wrong:

Buccaneers @ Vikings

A combination of bad punts and turnovers gave the Buccaneers a succession of short fields. And the Vikings complete inability to stop rookie running back Doug Martin meant that the Buccaneers were mostly able to convert those short fields into points. And while Adrian Peterson had a good day running the ball, too many of the Vikings' drives ended with punts or turnovers.

Chargers @ Browns

The Chargers have one of the worst offenses in the league this year. In this game, they only had two drives longer than 44 yards. The result was 6 punts, 2 turnovers on downs, and a lost fumble.

Split Picks: (APR: 5-1, SRS: 4-2, Line: 2-4)

A very nice week for APR, 4-1 picking against the Line

Falcons (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)

The post-game focus has been on Michael Vick's performance and whether the Eagles should switch to rookie QB Nick Foles. But Vick had a decent game here (191 yards passing, 42 yards rushing, 1 touchdown, and no turnovers). The Eagles' real problem (at least in this game) was their defense was utterly unable to stop the Falcons. Matt Ryan threw for 262 yards, 3 touchdowns, and only had 7 incompletions. The Falcons scored on their first 5 drives, and the Eagles offense couldn't keep up.

Raiders (APR, SRS) @ Chiefs (Line)

Matt Cassel is almost certainly a better quarterback than Brady Quinn. But either way the Chiefs go, they are a very bad team, and might not win another game this season.

Colts (APR, SRS) @ Titans (Line)

The good news for the Titans is their usually ineffective defense held the Colts to just 13 points through 4 quarters. The bad news is their usually ineffective offense couldn't do any better, and their defense gave up a game-winning touchdown drive in overtime.

Dolphins (APR, SRS) @ Jets (Line)

If anything went right for the Jets in this game, it isn't apparent from the stat sheets. A blocked punt gave the Dolphins their first touchdown. A lost fumble gave then a short field for a second, and a long runback gave them a short field for a third. Meanwhile, the Jets' offense struggled mightily. They didn't have a drive go more than 10 yards(!) until late in the first half, and that resulted in a blocked field goal attempt.

Seahawks (APR, SRS) @ Lions (Line)

The Seahawks managed to take a 3-point lead with 5:27 left in the game. One more stop might have been enough to win the game. But instead, their defense allowed the Lions to drive 80 yards for the go-ahead touchdown, and use almost all of the remaining game time. The remaining 15 seconds of game time simply wasn't enough for the Seahawks to answer.

Redskins (SRS) @ Steelers (APR, Line)

I assume SRS liked the Redskins here because they've scored a lot of points this season (6 games with 23+ points). But the Steelers defense was able to mostly neutralize RG3 (177 yards and 1 TD passing, and just 8 yards rushing). Meanwhile, the Steelers were able to score early and often on the Redskins not-very-good defense, and this game was pretty well over by halftime.

Totals

This week, it's the Line's turn to take a beating.

	This Week			This Season			%
APR	11	-	3	57	-	45	55.9%
SRS	10	-	4	57	-	45	55.9%
Line	8	-	6	64	-	38	62.7%

NFL Week 8 Power Rankings

Rank	Team	Power Index	W-L	This Week
1 (↑4)	Falcons	1.0507 (LW × 1.0215)	7-0	Won by 13 @ Eagles
2 (-)	Texans	1.0444 (LW × 0.9950)	6-1	Bye
3 (↓2)	Bears	1.0436 (LW × 0.9637)	6-1	Won by 1 vs Panthers
4 (↓1)	49ers	1.0363 (LW × 0.9975)	6-2	Won by 21 @ Cardinals
5 (↑2)	Giants	1.0284 (LW × 1.0247)	6-2	Won by 5 @ Cowboys
6 (↑2)	Broncos	1.0204 (LW × 1.0233)	4-3	Won by 20 vs Saints
7 (↓1)	Patriots	1.0197 (LW × 1.0150)	5-3	Won by 38 @ Rams
8 (↓4)	Packers	1.0045 (LW × 0.9675)	5-3	Won by 9 vs Jaguars
9 (-)	Seahawks	0.9652 (LW × 0.9703)	4-4	Lost by 4 @ Lions
10 (↑2)	Steelers	0.9528 (LW × 1.0324)	4-3	Won by 15 vs Redskins
11 (↑5)	Dolphins	0.9350 (LW × 1.0311)	4-3	Won by 21 @ Jets
12 (↑2)	Ravens	0.9218 (LW × 1.0070)	5-2	Bye
13 (↓3)	Vikings	0.9030 (LW × 0.9198)	5-3	Lost by 19 vs Buccaneers
14 (↑5)	Cowboys	0.9017 (LW × 1.0057)	3-4	Lost by 5 vs Giants
15 (↑3)	Lions	0.8954 (LW × 0.9883)	3-4	Won by 4 vs Seahawks
16 (↓1)	Redskins	0.8798 (LW × 0.9669)	3-5	Lost by 15 @ Steelers
17 (↑9)	Buccaneers	0.8757 (LW × 1.0734)	3-4	Won by 19 @ Vikings
18 (↓7)	Rams	0.8715 (LW × 0.9359)	3-5	Lost by 38 vs Patriots
19 (↓2)	Jets	0.8683 (LW × 0.9576)	3-5	Lost by 21 vs Dolphins
20 (↑4)	Panthers	0.8645 (LW × 1.0410)	1-6	Lost by 1 @ Bears
21 (↓1)	Eagles	0.8640 (LW × 0.9881)	3-4	Lost by 13 vs Falcons
22 (↓9)	Cardinals	0.8613 (LW × 0.9393)	4-4	Lost by 21 vs 49ers
23 (↓1)	Bengals	0.8505 (LW × 1.0150)	3-4	Bye
24 (↓3)	Chargers	0.8477 (LW × 0.9872)	3-4	Lost by 1 @ Browns
25 (↓2)	Colts	0.8312 (LW × 0.9944)	4-3	Won by 6 @ Titans
26 (↑3)	Raiders	0.8303 (LW × 1.0360)	3-4	Won by 10 @ Chiefs
27 (↓2)	Saints	0.8261 (LW × 0.9962)	2-5	Lost by 20 @ Broncos
28 (↓1)	Bills	0.8044 (LW × 0.9877)	3-4	Bye
29 (↓1)	Titans	0.7928 (LW × 0.9768)	3-5	Lost by 6 vs Colts
30 (-)	Browns	0.7927 (LW × 1.0293)	2-6	Won by 1 vs Chargers
31 (-)	Jaguars	0.7665 (LW × 1.0073)	1-6	Lost by 9 @ Packers
32 (-)	Chiefs	0.6919 (LW × 0.9967)	1-6	Lost by 10 vs Raiders

Comments:

• The Falcons finally get a turn in the #1 spot. They haven't had the toughest slate of opponents so far, but they are 7-0, and when most of the rest of the league has 3 losses or more, that counts for a lot.

• I didn't think that the Vikings were as good as their 5-2 record, but wow, that was an ugly loss. If they play that bad down the stretch, they may not get to 8 wins this year.

• I think it's safe to pencil in the Broncos to win the AFC West. They're only 4-3 right now, but the rest of their schedule is so easy, they might win out the rest of the way.

• The Steelers win back-to-back games for the first time this season. They've had some pretty rough losses, but after next week (at the Giants), they have a pretty soft schedule too, and (especially if they get healthy on defense) could run away with the AFC North.

• That 4-0 start by the Cardinals is starting to seem like a long time ago. How much longer can they stick with John Skelton as their starter? At this point, I'm not sure I see much of a down side to starting rookie Ryan Lindell, to at least see if he's worth developing, or if they should look for somebody in the draft next April.

NFL Week 8 Picks

Game	APR	SRS	Line
Jaguars @ Packers	Packers ρ=1.3643	Packers δ=21.4	Packers -13
Panthers @ Bears	Bears ρ=1.3039	Bears δ=16.0	Bears -9
Buccaneers @ Vikings	Vikings ρ=1.2035	Vikings δ=2.1	Vikings -6½
Saints @ Broncos	Broncos ρ=1.2024	Broncos δ=8.9	Broncos -6
Falcons @ Eagles	Falcons ρ=1.1763	Falcons* δ=9.8	Eagles -1½
Raiders @ Chiefs	Raiders ρ=1.1545	Raiders* δ=4.1	Chiefs -1
49ers @ Cardinals	49ers ρ=1.1330	49ers* δ=10.3	49ers -7
Giants @ Cowboys	Giants ρ=1.1194	Giants* δ=8.8	Giants -1
Chargers @ Browns	Chargers ρ=1.1149	Chargers* δ=5.7	Chargers -3
Seahawks @ Lions	Seahawks ρ=1.0979	Seahawks* δ=6.1	Lions -3
Patriots @ Rams	Patriots ρ=1.0789	Patriots* δ=3.5	Patriots -7
Colts @ Titans	Colts* ρ=1.0299	Colts* δ=6.1	Titans -3½
Redskins @ Steelers	Steelers ρ=1.0142	Redskins* δ=5.2	Steelers -5
Dolphins @ Jets	Dolphins* ρ=1.0000	Dolphins* δ=0.2	Jets -2½

Bye: Ravens, Bills, Texans, Bengals

Comments:

• Wow, week 8 already. Time flies.

• 4 of the Falcons' 6 wins have come against the not-very-impressive AFC West. So it's not a huge stretch to suppose the Eagles can give them their first loss. On the other hand, one of the reasons the Falcons have been winning is their defense has been getting lots of turnovers...

• So apparently Brady Quinn is now the Chiefs' starting quarterback. This is the guy who couldn't beat out Derek Anderson for the start in Cleveland, or Kyle Orton in Denver. Adjust your expectations accordingly.

• The Raiders have been pretty bad, but the Chiefs have been a disaster. I have no explanation for why the Line would favor the Chiefs this week.

• APR rates Dolphins @ Jets a full-on toss up (well, at least out to 4 decimal places). If the Jets win, they'll have the head-to-head sweep over the Dolphins, which means the Dolphins will have a very hard time finishing better than 3rd in the AFC East this year.

• Can the Lions beat the Seahawks? They really haven't looked very good this year, and will be facing another stout defense. The good news for the Lions is the Seahawks aren't nearly as good on the road, and if they can score 21 points, that could be more than the offensively-challenged Seahawks can match.

NFL Week 7 APR vs. ESPN

What this is

A comparison of APR's Week 7 power rankings with ESPN's rankings for the same week of games. This acts as a sanity check (both ways) to see what teams are over- or underrated.

Only teams with the widest differential are listed. The number in parentheses is the difference between APR's rank and ESPN's rank.

Teams ESPN likes more than APR:

Ravens (+8)

The Ravens' offense has never been anything special, and as long as their defense is giving up 30 points a game, they just don't belong in the top 10.

Eagles (+7)

The Eagles increased slightly in power on their bye week, but APR dropped them 3 places anyway. Given their 3-3 record, and habit of turning the ball over on offense, I think I like APR's ranking (#20) better than ESPN's (#13) too.

On the bubble

Nobody closer than +5 (Saints, Giants)

Teams APR likes more than ESPN:

Rams (-10)

On their home loss to the Packers, APR holds the Rams steady, and ESPN drops them a spot. APR continues to have them too high (but how does ESPN have the Lions and Saints ranked over them??)

Jets (-7)

I can't work up a lot of enthusiasm to talk up the Jets, but a) they did take the Texans and Patriots to the wire the last two weeks, and b) they are 3-4, and only a game out of first place in the division. The Jets are another team ESPN has inexplicably ranked under the Lions and Saints.

On the bubble

Nobody closer than -5 (Panthers)

NFL Week 7 Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Unanimous Picks (7-1)

Right:

Cowboys @ Panthers
Packers @ Rams
Redskins @ Giants
Ravens @ Texans
Jaguars @ Raiders
Jets @ Patriots
Lions @ Bears

Wrong:

Titans @ Bills

This was a defense-optional game, with both teams combining for 772 yards of total offense. Buffalo scored 7 times, but twice settled for field goals. That, along with a critical late turnover, was the difference in the game.

Split Picks: (APR: 1-4, SRS: 2-3, Line: 5-0)

The Line gets all split picks right!

Saints (Line) @ Buccaneers (APR, SRS)

The Saints' had their best offensive effort of the season (458 total yards and 5 touchdowns). The Saints' defense did manage a critical goal line stand, but their overall numbers (513 total yards, 4 touchdowns, and no turnovers) suggest that they still have a long ways to go to be in contention.

Steelers (SRS, Line) @ Bengals (APR)

I think Tony Dungy was right in the pre-game when he said the Bengals' lack of a legitimate second receiver is a problem for them. The Steelers' defense was able to make A.J. Green a complete non-factor, and the Bengals didn't have anyone else to step up in response.

Browns (SRS) @ Colts (APR, Line)

There was a lot of offensive futility for both teams in this game. 13 combined drives ended with a punt, turnover on downs, or the half ending. This was a coin-flip game, and could've gone either way. The Colts managed 3 scoring drives which gave them the edge over the Browns' 2 scores.

Seahawks (APR) @ 49ers (SRS, Line)

Facing a good defense, Russell Wilson was back to his old self. A 39% completion rate and just 122 yards passing meant that only two of the Seahawks' drives went longer than 37 yards. The 49ers didn't do a lot better, but their strong defense meant that 13 points was enough to get them by the Seahawks.

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Vikings (Line)

The Cardinals had their chances in this game, and their defense held Christian Ponder largely in check. But they couldn't stop Adrian Peterson (153 yards rushing), and couldn't overcome their own troubles on offense, including 7 sacks and a disasterous interception returned for a touchdown.

Totals

	This Week			This Season			%
APR	8	-	5	46	-	42	52.3%
SRS	9	-	4	47	-	41	53.4%
Line	12	-	1	56	-	32	63.6%